特别鸣谢：感谢以下小伙伴对本期周报做出的突出贡献
供稿：Sylvia /?Jim / Mat / Riffi / PunkoSpecial thanks: Thanks to the following small partners for their outstanding contributions to this weekly paper
:版权发布：本周报由 WolfDAO（@10xWolfdao） 协作发布，仅供学习交流、研究或欣赏；内容原创，如转载请说明来源；
Copyright: This week's newspaper, published in collaboration with WolfDAO (); original content, if reproduced, please indicate the source;
行情景气指数：70（上周指数：75）
下降理由
Reasons for decline
- 1. 利率决策维持不降息，消息落地后市场转为利空
- 2. 近期btc合约市场出现多头减仓转为空头增仓的趋势
- 3. 价格接近宽幅震荡中枢，关键转折阶段，需关注66500，为震荡区间上下轨切换的关键点位。
- 4. 未来一周以观望为主
上周行情复盘
- 1. 资金面紧张，稳定币和ETF数据均不及预期
- 2. 链上筹码分析，如果目前价格上涨，不需要注意，如果目前价格下跌，链上筹码分布特征可能会造成价格较为快速的波动
- 3. 本周从技术分析上有两点需要注意，一是在CPI数据发布前，市场先行进行了下跌，二是在最近的走势中其实是弱于纳斯达克的走势
本周行情展望
目前四小时线进入反弹结构。下跌表明空头已经表现过了，如果本周多头无法表现出强势，那么下下周市场会继续下跌。
The four-hour line is now in the rebound structure. The fall indicates that the empty is out of order and that the market will continue to fall next week if more than one week does not show strength.
重点关注赛道
- Meme：PolitiFi代币短期内表现出显著增长，特别是在与政治相关的meme代币（如MAGA和MAGA HAT）的推动下。
- RWA：通过将现实世界资产代币化，引入新的投资渠道，持续吸引投资者的关注。
- AI：展现了广泛的应用前景，进一步巩固了其市场热度。
重点关注项目
除了日常每日关注的舆情推送项目，还要额外推荐两个本周表现比较两眼的项目
In addition to the day-to-day follow-up projects, two more projects are recommended for comparison of performance this week.
CRV (Curve Finance)
- 1. 创始人借贷逼近清算线引发市场短期波动
- 2. 存在反弹机会
- 3. 长期前景因市场竞争激烈而不确定
Milady (Ladys)
- 1. 以Milady NFT形象制作的社区自治meme币
- 2. 热度较高
- 3. 受到DWF Labs支持
- 4. 成功进行CULT预售筹资
- 5. 有望登陆Binance合约平台
重要数据发布日
………………分……………………割……………………线………………
（接下来的内容为详细解读）
1.BTC行情分析
目前价格处于宽幅震荡中轨，重点关注66500点位能否形成有效支撑，如跌破则看到60000一线，如未跌破有望回到上轨运行。
Prices are currently in the middle of a wide-band shock trajectory, focusing on whether the 66,500 dots can be effectively supported. If they fall, they can see 60,000 lines, and if they do not fall, they are expected to return to orbit.
数据来源：Tradingview — BTC价格走势
2. 美国利率决策发布后未来重点关注经济数据
通胀数据：鲍威尔多次强调通胀仍然过高,并且最近几个月的数据高于预期。他表示在对通胀持续走向2%目标更有信心之前,不会考虑降低利率。因此通胀的变化趋势将是决定货币政策走向的关键。
inflation data : Powell has repeatedly stressed that inflation is still too high and has been higher than expected in recent months. He said that he would not consider lowering interest rates until he had more confidence in inflation continuing towards the 2% target.
就业市场数据：虽然当前就业市场总体保持强劲,但鲍威尔提到美联储也准备应对意外的就业疲软。这表明就业数据的变化也会影响政策取向。尤其要关注失业率、非农就业人数增长等指标。
employment market data : While the current employment market is generally strong, Powell mentions that the Fed is also prepared to respond to unexpected employment weakness. This suggests that changes in employment data will also affect policy orientation. Particular attention should be paid to indicators such as unemployment, growth in non-farm employment, etc. .
经济活动数据：鲍威尔提到经济前景存在不确定性,美联储要兼顾就业和物价的平衡,避免过度抑制经济活动。因此GDP增速、消费、投资等反映经济活力的数据也需要密切监测。
Economic activity data: Powell refers to the uncertainty of economic prospects and the need for the Fed to balance employment with prices and avoid overstretching economic activity. Data reflecting economic dynamism, such as GDP growth, consumption, investment, etc., therefore need to be closely monitored .
通胀预期：鲍威尔认为长期通胀预期目前仍保持稳固,但这是一个需要关注的风险点。如果通胀预期大幅攀升,可能影响实际通胀和政策操作空间。要留意各种市场和民意调查中反映通胀预期的指标。
inflation expectations: Powell believes that long-term inflation expectations remain stable at present, but this is a risk point that needs attention. If inflation expectations rise significantly, they may affect real inflation and policy space.
金融市场情况：在放缓缩表节奏时,鲍威尔提到要避免货币市场压力,确保平稳过渡。这需要关注各种金融市场风险定价、流动性水平等,防范在政策调整中出现市场波动。
Financial markets :
美联储将 QT 缩减幅度超过预期的 300 亿美元，而是将 QT 缩减 350 亿美元，这意味着 TSY 的赎回上限从 600 亿美元/月 降至 250 亿美元 /月。QT 减少会使美债收益率下降。
The Fed reduced the QT by more than $30 billion, but instead reduced the QT by $35 billion, meaning that TSY’s foreclosure cap was reduced from $60 billion/month to $25 billion/month. The QT reduction would reduce the return on US debt.
降息预期推演
> 时间节点：降息预期，有两个重要时间点 > Time node: interest reduction expected with two important points of time > 降息数据 > interest-reduction data 根据 CME 当日数据，9月18日，不降息 30.6%，降息 2.5 基点 57.2%，降息 5 个基点 12%。总的降息预期概率是 69.4%。 According to CME data for the same day, on 18 September, there was no interest reduction of 30.6 per cent, 2.5 basis points, 57.2 per cent and 5 basis points, 12 per cent. The overall probability of interest reduction is expected to be 69.4 per cent. 11月7日，不降息的概率 17.8%，降息 2.5 基点为46.5%，降息 5 个基点 30.6%，降息 7.5 基点为5%。总的降息预期概率是 82.4%。 On 7 November, the probability of no interest reduction was 17.8 per cent, the 2.5 basis point was 46.5 per cent, the 5 basis point was 30.6 per cent and the 7.5 basis point was 5 per cent. The overall probability of interest reduction is expected to be 82.4 per cent. > 降息推演 > interest-reduction thrust 考虑到美国大选情况，大选在11月降息前2天，如果11月开始降息，利好落地，选举期间金融市场会砸盘，引发市场波动，影响选举结果。 Taking into account the general elections in the United States, the general elections took place two days before the reduction in interest rates in November and, if interest rates were to begin in November, financial markets would collapse during the elections, triggering market fluctuations and affecting the outcome of the elections. 如果9月开始降息，距离11月大选还有2个月，即使美股砸盘回调，也有足够的时间消化短期泡沫，保证选举期间股市表现稳定。 If interest rate reductions begin in September and are two months from the November general election, even if the United States dollar is rewinded, there will be enough time to absorb the short-term bubble and ensure stable stock market performance during the election period. > 推演结论 & gt; extrapolating conclusions 综合以上，9月份开始降息的概率是最大的。 如果此推断成立，那么6～8月三个月的时间，金融市场有降息预期的潜在利好，利好美股和加密市场。 Combined above, the probability of starting interest reductions in September is the greatest. If this assumption is established, the financial markets will have the potential benefits of reducing interest over the three-month period from June to August, for the benefit of the United States stock and encryption markets. 美股如期上行，目前市场流动性集中在美股，并未外溢到btc价格，近期也打破了美股与btc联动的趋势，相对于美股而言，btc更加弱势，但综合来看，美国的上行会对币价有一定的支撑作用。 The United States shares are on track, and market liquidity is currently concentrated in the United States, with no overflowing to the btc price, and has recently broken the trend of the United States stock-to-btc connection, which is more vulnerable than the United States share, but overall, the United States upper hand has some support for currency prices. 目前资金由净流入转变为净流出，同时价格下行，需要新的热点题材带动情绪面与资金面的上行 The current shift from net inflows to net outflows, coupled with falling prices, requires new hot topics to drive emotional and financial upwards. 交易量由缩量转变为增量，交易行为增加，但以流出趋势为主，需要关注加密市场自身题材对价格的影响 The volume of transactions has shifted from a contraction to an increase in volume, and trading behaviour has increased, but is dominated by outflows, requiring attention to the price implications of the encryption market's own subject matter. 稳定币数量1450.07亿，本周稳定币增发3.892亿（距离0607），从图形上来看整体还是横盘状态，已经持续了两个月了，资金并没有呈现趋势性增发的状态，过去五个交易日ETF的资金净流入为-2.5956亿（不包括周五），市场资金面依旧紧张。 The steady currency, which stands at $145,007 million, and this week's steady currency, which has increased by 389.2 million (at a distance of 0607), has remained as a whole or as a cross-section for two months, with no upward trend in funding, the net flow of ETF funds over the past five trading days has been -259.5 million (excluding Friday) and the market is still strained. 场外折溢价基本还是保持中位震荡的态势。 The out-of-the-field premium is basically the same as maintaining a medium-shock posture. USDT杠杆交易的年利率和永续合约的资金费率，均在6月11号（CPI数据和议息会议前）出现回落，市场情绪回落。这一点在当时理解还是比较奇怪的，我们可以结合后面的行情分析来展开说明 The annual interest rate of the USDT leverage transaction and the financial rate of the permanent contract fell on June 11 (before the CPI data meeting) and the market moods fell. This was still a strange thing to understand at the time, and we can explain it in the light of the subsequent analysis of the behavior. 链上持币数在1K-1W的地址持仓占比有所轻微下降（24.679%-24.385%），持币数大于1K的地址持仓占比变化不明显（40.231%-40.193%），链上数据特征变化不明显 There was a slight decrease in the number of banknotes held in the chain at 1K-1W (24.679 per cent - 24.38 per cent), there was no significant change in the number of addresses held in currencies greater than 1K (40.231 - 40.193 per cent) and there was no significant change in data characteristics on the chain 我们上一期提到过在66254–70671这个范围内堆积了占总值12.38%的筹码，目前占比是12.65%，本周筹码的移动主要是在这个区间范围内，目前价格已经到了当前价格的下沿，下方的流动性支撑比较小，如果下穿，可能会有较为快速的移动，另外当前的价格对于上方70671入场的筹码来说，已经浮亏6–7%，对于短期筹码来说可能很快达到短期筹码的止损范围，如果向下走可能会加剧市场的波动。如果市场能横盘，则说明当前价格，筹码止损的意愿不强。不要忘记，我们在上月的周报里提到部分在66000入场的筹码，在最大浮亏14%的情况下还没有移动 We mentioned in the previous issue that 12.38% of the total value had accumulated within the range of 66254–70671, and the ratio is now 12.65%. The movement of the chips this week is mainly within this range, where prices are now below current prices, where liquidity support is relatively small, which, if worn down, may have moved faster, and that the current price is 6-7% for the entry code of 70671 above, which is likely to soon reach the cut-off range of short-term chips, and could increase market volatility if moving downwards. If the market were able to cut across, it would indicate the current price and the willingness to cut down. Don't forget, we mentioned in our weekly report last month that some of the chips in the 66,000 field did not move in the 14% top. 综上，如果目前价格上涨，链上数据没有指向的特征情况，如果目前价格下跌，可能会是较为快速的波动，如果价格下跌之后，筹码没有出现止损情况，则说明市场下跌有足够的分歧，还会向上博弈 In summary, if the current price rise and the data on the chain are not indicative of the situation, if the current price drop is likely to be a more rapid fluctuation, and if there is no stoppage in the chips when the price falls, then the market decline is sufficiently divisive to be played up. 重要数据发布的一周已经过去了，市场盯住数据的一周已经过去了，所以接来下可以更加注重市场内部博弈了 One week after the release of important data and one week after the market's eye on the data, it's time to focus more on the game inside the market. 之前我们提到过，目前BTC在最近这阶段，跟着宏观数据发布的发布而波动，自身缺少内生性的力量。纯从市场自身结构和K线分析可能有点脱钩。纯交易角度，降息是利好，但是前期预期如果太满，反而会造成小周期的市场达到高点，或者横盘区域，然后真正等资金实质性涌入市场，才会逐步恢复上涨的趋势。有各种重大数据发布，如果是利好，价格会短期涨一涨，如果是利空，短期内会跌一跌，都很正常。如果是交易角度，建议规避这段时间。 As we have previously mentioned, BTC has now fluctuated in recent times with the release of macro-data and lacks its own intrinsic power. It may be a bit decoupled from the market's own structure and K-line analysis. From a purely transactional perspective, interest reductions are good, but, if they are too full, the forward period is expected to lead to small-cycle markets reaching high points, or to a substantial influx of funds into the market, which would lead to a gradual recovery of the upward trend. 上周从技术分析上有两点需要注意，一是在CPI数据发布前，市场先行进行了下跌，二是在最近的走势中其实是弱于纳斯达克的走势。从以上特征来看，在结合资金面的数据（稳定币的流通量、杠杆反应出来的市场情绪，链上特征），在我看来，目前市场自身结构有点偏弱，但是目前四小时线进入反弹结构。下跌表明空头已经表现过了，如果本周多头无法表现出强势，比如说回到68000以上，那么本周市场会继续下跌。 Last week, there were two points to note from the technical analysis that the market had fallen before the release of the CPI data, and that the recent trend was actually weaker than that of NASDAQ. From these characteristics, in the combination of financial data (stable currency flows, leveraged market sentiment, chain characteristics), it seems to me that the market itself is a bit weak, but the four-hour line is now in the rebound structure. The fall indicates that the empty head has already been shown, and if strong > fails to show strength, for example, to return to over 68,000 this week, the market will continue to fall this week. 热门事件 政策动向 Policy developments 联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议、CPI 数据、利率决定以及对包括比特币等加密货币在内的各种资产的潜在影响 Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) meetings, CPI data, interest rate decisions and potential impact on various assets, including encrypted currency such as Bitcoin 美国 CPI 数据显示通胀率低于预期的 3.3%，多项数据发布引发了人们对即将召开的 FOMC 会议可能降息的猜测。加密货币市场对这一消息做出了积极反应，比特币和山寨币出现反弹。 The U.S. CPI data show a lower than expected inflation rate of 3.3%, and a number of data releases have raised speculation about the possible reduction of interest rates at the forthcoming FOMC meeting. The encrypted currency market responded positively to this news, with a rebound of Bitcoin and Mountain Coin. 项目动向 Project movement 上周的数据中，大部分赛道整体处于下跌状态，这很可能受到了宏观经济环境和市场不确定性的影响。然而，值得关注的是，在这一波动中，Meme赛道中的PolitiFi代币表现出了出色的回弹速度，特别是在短期内取得了显著的增长。这种快速的回弹主要受到特定事件驱动，例如大选周期的临近，使得与政治相关的meme代币如MAGA和MAGA HAT受到了投资者的热捧。 此外，RWA（Real World Assets）和AI赛道在本周依然保持了较高的关注度。这两个赛道不仅具有较长远的期望值，同时也因其与现实世界的紧密关联和叙事性而持续吸引投资者的目光。RWA赛道通过将现实世界中的资产代币化，提供了新的市场机会和投资渠道。而AI赛道由于其在各类应用中的广泛潜力，特别是在区块链技术的优化和自动化管理上的应用前景，进一步巩固了其市场热度。总体来看，这些赛道的表现和市场关注度，表明投资者正在寻求既有短期盈利机会，又具备长期成长潜力的投资方向。 而市场普遍关注的热点项目通常有以下几个方面的原因： 这些因素共同推动了相关项目的热度和市场关注度，使其在竞争激烈的市场环境中获得更多热点。 项目1：CRV (Curve Finance） Item Curve Finance是一家自动化做市商和去中心化交易所，特别专注于低滑差的高效稳定币交易。它提供各种稳定币，如USDT、USDC、TUSD、BUSD等。通过Curve，交易者可以使用DeFi服务，如流动性挖掘和收益种植，降低风险。 Curve Finance is an automated market and decentralized exchange, with a special focus on low-sliding, efficient and stable currency transactions. It provides a variety of stable currencies, such as USDT, USDC, TUSD, BUSD, and so on. 6月13日链上分析师发现 CRV 创始人借贷逼近清算线，引发鲸鱼狙击定向爆破。短期内CRV 的价格跌破了 Curve 创始人 Michael Egorov 的清算价，其在 5 个协议中的全部 9 位数贷款头寸都被清算并产生了一千多万USD的坏账。币安上CRV跌幅最大超过 40%，最低价 触及0.219U。 CRV并不是第一次出现清算危机，在去年7月出现Vyper漏洞事件后，CRV就出现过一次清算危机，后续在众多机构和大V纷纷通过OTC注资帮助下度过难关。 CRV并不是第一次出现清算危机，在去年7月出现Vyper漏洞事件后，CRV就出现过一次清算危机，后续众多机构和大V纷纷通过OTC注资下度过难关。这次Michael被清算出局从好的方面来说可以是靴子落地，筹码分散，Crv创始人的话语权不断被稀释，这对于Crv的长期价格可能是好事。 上轮危机中孙宇晨等大V和加密机构的入场成本基本在0.4U附近，并且基本都锁仓了6个月，链上也没有捕捉到近期有大量大户清仓CRV的举动。目前CRV价格低于0.3，可以判断当初入场的救火队长们仍然处在较大亏损状态，且此次链上大空头砸盘主要是为了定向爆破Michael仓位获得做空和清算收益，在目标达成之后CRV价格下跌动力有限，反而有可能拉升一波帮助这些人出货。 Curve的机制核心是围绕着 CRV 进行分红拆分。通过锁定CRV成 veCRV造成流动性沉没成本，再通过 CRV提供激励给拆分盘，目前链上大部分协议（包括AAVE等）的基础收益收益都比Curve高，Curve 大部分流动性池的主要收益还是来自 CRV 的排放。 尽管Curve协议对于CRV不是绝对依存关系，但是币价暴跌带来的收益下降和恐慌情绪很可能造成后续大量流动性出逃。 Defi底层流动性基础的叙事削弱。Curve的TVL目前仅有历史高点十分之一，和上一轮市场相比，一方面ETH金融已经不再是热点，同时新的Defi协议也不像以往那样依赖在Curve上组池子，稳定币和LSD在链上的价格锚定和流动性好像已经不那么重要了。 短期来看Curve在这轮恐慌出清后币价有可能一波上升机会，但长期来看，面临目前市场复杂的竞争局面Curve的未来仍然不容乐观。 项目2：LADYS (Miladys meme token） Item Miladys meme token(ladys)是以Milady NFT 系列Ladys形象制作的社区自治meme币，体现了meme力量和网络爱情的不屈不挠精神。 可能登陆Binance合约平台。目前在币安Futures Next平台的代币提名池中Miladys排名第二，投票人数第一，表明市场对于Miladys上线币安合约平台抱有积极态度。 Cult预售。据官方消息，Milady创始人（Charlotte Fang）发布的预售Meme项目CULT预售已完成，总计筹集5861.8枚ETH，约2045万美元。对于这种已有品牌信誉基础的项目，有可能会通过对原品牌赋能等其他方式来拉盘进而吸引市场注意力。 DWF Labs投资。6月3日，Milady（LADYS）已成功获得了DWF Labs的500万美元投资。这笔投资进一步巩固了$LADYS作为meme文化核心地位。 以上就是 WolfDAO 有关本期周报的主要内容了，欢迎互动讨论 That's the main part of WolfDAO's story about this week's paper. Welcome to the interactive discussion of
数据来源：CME
3. 市场异动
数据来源：Tradingview
4. 资金流入 / 流出
数据来源：Coinglass
1.USDC & USDT 稳定币流通量
数据来源：Glassnode
2. USDC & USDT 场外折溢价
数据来源：OKX
3. 合约市场数据 — — 永续合约资金费率
数据来源：Glassnode
4. 基金市场数据 — — ETF数据
数据来源：Soso Value
5. BTC链上地址数据
数据来源：Glassnode
6. BTC链上筹码数据
数据来源：Glassnode
7. 过去一周日线和四小时技术分析
数据来源：Binance
1.热议关键词及事件整理
WolfDAO整理：本周热门舆情项目
2. 本周舆情热门项目
WolfDAO整理：本周热门舆情项目解读
3. 热门赛道
各赛道数据表现 数据来源：Coingecko
4. 热门项目推荐
CRV(Curve Finance）
Futures Next Source: Binance
原创版权，转载引用请说明来源
original copyrights. Please specify the source of the quotations.
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