在5月13日前后，BTC网络的区块奖励将减少，因为矿工在减半后奖励将由12.5BTC变为6.25BTC。该协议的区块奖励上一次减半是在2016年7月9日，当时的全球经济看起来完全不同。这次，当BTC矿工看到奖励减少时，世界金融体系却在崩溃，数字资产的价值也比四周前要低得多。
On or about May 13, BTC’s block incentives will be reduced, as miners will be reduced by half from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. The last time the block awards were halved was on July 9, 2016, when the global economy looked completely different. This time, when BTC miners saw fewer incentives, the world financial system was collapsing, and the value of digital assets was much lower than they had been four weeks ago.
比特币减半倒计时 减少区块奖励之前的50天
Half the bitcoin countdown, 50 days before the block bonus was reduced.
很难相信上个月的BTC交易价格远高于今天（2月14日价格为$10,371）。然而，现在人们更容易相信一切皆有可能，因为整个世界都被爆发新冠肺炎所影响。比特币目前的交易价格为6,600美元，网络将在50天内将区块奖励从每区块12.5 BTC减少至6.25 BTC。大约一周左右时间，从2012年开始，该协议设定每四年减半一次。上次减半是在2016年，预计4月之后减半的计划是在5月13日。
It is hard to believe that last month’s BTC transaction prices are much higher than they are today (at $10,371 on 14 February). However, it is now easier to believe that everything is possible because the world is affected by the outbreak of a new coronary pneumonia. Bitcoin’s current trade price is $6,600, and the network will reduce block incentives from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block within 50 days.
据bitcoinblockhalf.com报道，奖励减半将在2020年5月13日左右，UTC 16:50:46（北京时间2020年5月14日0:50:46 AM）。
According to bitcoinblockhalf.com, the incentives will be halved around 13 May 2020, UTC 16:50:46 (Beijing time 14:50:46 AM).
除了目前的价格低点外，全球范围内持续的经济不确定性总体上给加密市场蒙上了一层阴影，没人知道接下来会发生什么。自比特币诞生以来，这种加密货币首次陷入全球金融危机，许多人认为这项技术是为这一事件而设计的。在这场经济灾难中，不管5月13日的价格如何，矿业公司的收入都会立刻减半。
In addition to the current low prices, persistent global economic uncertainty has cast a shadow over the encryption market in general, and no one knows what will happen next. For the first time since Bitcoin’s birth, this encoded currency has fallen into the global financial crisis, a technology that many consider designed for this event.
BTC矿工也将面临其他障碍，因为中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）可能从未考虑过另外两个SHA256网络。2020年，三个高知名度的区块链将共享相同的SHA256算法，并且在所有三个网络上都将进行一些挖矿操作流程区块。可以看到更多的矿池在各个链之间切换算力，以期希望获得更多的利润。在BTC减半之前大约一个月， BCH和BSV也会看到区块奖励的减少。比特币矿工已经这样做了很长一段时间，并且在很多情况下，挖BCH比BTC利润更高，反之亦然。由于矿工利用这些机会来回切换，投机者认为，随着网络减半，利润波动将更加剧烈。
BTC miners will also face other obstacles because Satoshi Nakamoto may never have considered the other two SHA256 networks. In 2020, three high-profile block chains will share the same SHA256 algorithms, and some mining process blocks will be carried out on all three networks. More ponds can be seen to convert between chains in order to hope for more profit. About a month before BTC is halved, BCH and BSV will also see a reduction in block incentives. Bitcoin miners have done so for a long time, and in many cases, digging BCH is more profitable than BITC, and vice versa.
2020年减半产生不确定性 并可能降低安全性
Halve by 2020 creates uncertainty and could reduce safety.
此外，尽管许多BTC支持者对比特币减半持乐观态度，但仍有一些人认为这可能没什么大不了。在Twitter上拥有334K粉丝的长期分析师兼交易者彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）最近表示，减半可能被过分强调了。布兰特（Brandt）在推特发帖称，比特币减半“被严重高估了”。“BTC的日交易量=BTC的实际供应量” “每天减少开采的比特币(新供应量)约等于1%实际供应量的2%。”
Moreover, while many BTC supporters are optimistic about halving the amount of bitcoin, some believe that this may not be a big deal. Peter Brandt, a long-term analyst and trader with 334K fans on Twitter, recently said that halving could be overemphasized. Brandt tweeted that halving bitcoin is “seriously overestimated.” “BTC’s daily trade = BTC’s real supply” “reduced bitcoin (new supply) per day equals about 2% of 1% of actual supply.”
当人们告诉加密货币专家和交易者Tone Vays，经济状况可能会支持BTC时，Vays似乎相反。Vays表示：“实际上，如果这种僵持状况持续到夏天，减半如此快来临是一件坏事…… BTC可能仍在崩溃，因为减半只会压垮矿工。”加密货币交易者Donalt对这一情况的看法似乎也很悲观。他在推特上表示：“所以矿工只能得到一半的比特币，在几周内也只能以一半的价格出售。”“对他们来说听起来很糟糕，这不是谎言。”
When people tell encryption money experts and traders Tone Vays that the economic situation may support BTC, the opposite seems to be true. Ways says, “It's a bad thing that, in fact, if this standoff continues into the summer, half will come so fast... The BTC may still collapse, because halving will only crush the miners.” Donald, an encrypted money dealer, also seems pessimistic. He tweets, “So the miners can get half of the bitcoins and sell them at half the price in a few weeks.” “It sounds bad for them, and that's not a lie.”
前两次减半之后，BTC价值增加，安全性也大大提高。自2016年减半以来，当时BTC矿工的总算力略高于1 EH / s。此后的四年中，矿工在2020年2月20日创下了约136 EH / s的历史最高算力，但自过去两周价格下跌以来，总体算力已损失26％，降至100 EH / s。
After the first two halves, BTC values have increased and security has increased significantly. Since the reduction of BTC miners in 2016, they had a combined capacity of slightly more than 1 ETH/s. In the four years that followed, miners achieved the historical best of about 136 ETH/s on 20 February 2020, but overall capacity has been lost by 26 per cent since the fall in prices in the last two weeks, down to 100 ETH/s.
自2月20日以来，2020年3月24日的BTC算力下降了26％。截至发稿时，BTC算力在90-100 EH / s之间。
Since 20 February, the BTC was reduced by 26% on 24 March 2020. At the time of submission, the BTC was in the range of 90-100 EH/s.
尽管许多BTC支持者认为该链是安全的，但也有一些怀疑论者认为5月13日之后安全将会下降。AVA LabsCEO和康奈尔大学教授Emin Gün Sirer认为，接下来的几次奖励减半将削弱BTC的整体安全性。Gün Sirer表示：“随着发放给矿工奖励的不断减少下来，网络的安全性就会下降……如果安全级别直线下降，我们甚至可能会看到针对交易所的大规模双花攻击。反过来，这将反过来又会促使交易所延长确认时间。” 教授补充道：
Although many BTC supporters believe that the chain is safe, there are some skeptics who believe that security will decline after May 13. AVA LabsCEO and Professor Emin Gün Sirer of Cornell University believe that the next few awards will reduce the overall security of BTC by half. Gün Sirer says: “The safety of the network will decline as incentives for miners are being reduced...if the level of security falls straight, we may even see a massive double flower attack on the exchange. This, in turn, will prompt the exchange to extend the confirmation time.” The professor added:
在某些时候，攻击者可能会获得诸多算力，以至于没有充足的确认信息来保证交易的安全性。
In some cases, the attackers may acquire a great deal of arithmetical power that does not have sufficient confirmation information to guarantee the security of the transaction.
矿工必须超脱趋势才能保持盈利
Miners have to get out of the trend to keep making a profit.
没有人知道下一轮BTC减半会发生什么，但我们确实知道2020年会有很多不同的影响因素，例如减半后的价格、全球经济、算力、难度及交易和费用的数量。Tradeblock研究主管James Todaro在推特上表示，在减半事件发生后，矿工成本需要从每BTC7,000美元飙升至12,000美元至15,000美元。“在比特币减半之后，矿工的盈亏成本将从目前的约7,000美元增加到之后的每BTC 12,000至15,000美元。如果比特币价格上涨到该价格以上，我不会感到惊讶，这样矿工就能保持盈利。”
No one knows what will happen to the next round of BTC by half, but we do know that there will be many different influences in 2020, such as price, global economy, arithmetic, difficulty, and volume of transactions and costs. James Todaro, Director of Tradeblock Research, tweeted that, after halving events, the cost of miners would have to rise from $12,000 to $15,000 per BTC7,000. “After halving Bitcoin, the cost of miners would increase from about $7,000 to $15,000 per BTC later. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin would rise above that price, so that miners would remain profitable.”
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