如何看待后市加密行情？二季度加密行情预测重磅揭晓！ 当前，加密货币市场正处于牛市之中。散户投资者逐渐回流，比特币价格徘徊在 2021 年历史高点附近甚至略有突破，未来形势似乎一片大好。对于整个2023年都密切关注市场动态的人们而言，看到比特币价格能够以“7”开头，实在令人激动。
What about post-market encryption? 's second quarter encryption forecasts! & nbsp; now, the market for encrypted money is in the cattle market.
随着行业的不断成熟，市场涵盖的范围也急剧扩大。从模块化的区块链基础设施到 Solana 链上的Meme币，乃至比特币 NFT(以及更多新兴领域)，需要业界关注的领域比以往任何时候都多。
As industry matures, so does market coverage. From modular block chain infrastructure to Memeco in the Solana chain, and even Bitcoin NFT (and more emerging areas) require more industry attention than ever before.
本文旨在对2024年第二季度进行前瞻性预测与概述，同时也是对我过去一年学习与观察成果的一种总结与展示。基于这些深入的分析与理解，我将尝试对未来90天的市场走势进行细致的分析与预测，以期为相关人士提供一些有价值的参考与启示。但需要强调的是，我的预测并不能确保百分百的准确性。毕竟，加密市场乃至整个市场都是瞬息万变的，因此，根据新出现的信息不断更新我们的认知显得尤为关键。
On the basis of these in-depth analyses and understandings, I will try to analyse and forecast market trends over the next 90 days, with a view to providing interested people with some valuable references and inspiration. But it should be stressed that my predictions do not ensure 100% accuracy.
下面详细给大家介绍下后市加密行情和二季度行情预测。需要的朋友一起看看吧！
Let me give you a more detailed account of the post-city encryption and the second quarter forecast. Let's have a look at it with our friends.
1、小牛差不多了，现在是不是一个调仓的机会，把这波表现不好的换一下?
"Strong 1", the calf is close, but it's not a chance to strategize and replace the wave with a bad one?
一个项目有时候很难从短期衡量，一个币在过去这段时间内表现不好可能有自身的原因也可能有市场的原因。
A project may sometimes be difficult to measure in the short term, and there may be reasons for the poor performance of a currency in the past period, as well as market reasons.
如果是我，不会单纯从币价的表现来衡量一个币是不是表现不好。
If it were me, it would not be a mere measurement of a currency's bad performance.
我会更看重币的基本面，从纵向和横向两个方面比。纵向比只要是看它是不是比过去好，团队是不是还在继续建设;横向比是把它和同一个赛道的其它项目比，看它相对其它项目是不是落后了。
I'll look more at the basics of the currency, both vertically and horizontally. Vertically, if it's better than in the past, the team is still building; horizontally, compared to other projects in the same track, whether it lags behind against other projects.
如果是基本面落后了，我可能会考虑，但如果基本面没有太大的问题，只是币价表现一般，我可能还是会保留。
If the fundamentals are behind me, I may think about them, but if the fundamentals are not too much, but just the monetary performance, I may still keep them.
2、对后市加密行情怎么看?
2, what do you think of the back city encryption?
我依旧看好，期待真正的牛市到来。我还是相信今年下半年到明年上半年我们会迎来牛市。
I'm still looking forward to the real bull market. I'm still sure we'll be back in the second half of this year until the first half of next year.
3、cake是否值得长期持有?
我没有持有cake，对这个币了解不太多。DEX的币，我只持有CRV。
I don't hold cake, I don't know much about this currency. DEX's currency, I only own CRV.
4、对Ton生态怎么看?
What do you think of Ton's ecology?
我没有这个生态的任何代币，主要原因是这个生态的定位比较尴尬，纯粹从应用领域看，我觉得暂时还很难看到它能否发展出一个独特的生态。
I don't have any tokens for this ecology, mainly because of the awkward positioning of the ecology, which I find difficult to see for the time being, purely in the field of application, to develop a unique ecology.
但是我对Ton尤其是Telegram背后的故事非常着迷。这个团队有着极强的加密精神，这一点我由衷欣赏。
But I'm fascinated by the story behind Ton, especially Telegram. This team is extremely encoded, and I appreciate that.
这个团队来自俄罗斯。
This team is from Russia.
俄罗斯这个民族近代也好，当代也好都出过一大批极具反叛精神的人物。在传统的软件领域，Telegram背后的团队算是一个典型。在加密领域Vitalik算是一个典型。
The Russian nation is also good in recent times, and it is good that the modern era has seen a great number of insurgencies. The team behind Telegram is a typical one in traditional software. Vitalik is a typical one in encryption.
Telegram团队当年为了保护隐私敢于拒绝俄罗斯政府。Vitalik更是屡次为了捍卫隐私和他心中的理想敢于对抗强大的压力---最近他又在怒怼美国政府一项新法案对个人隐私的侵犯。
The Telegram team dared to reject the Russian government in order to protect its privacy. Vitalik has repeatedly dared to confront strong pressure in order to defend his privacy and the ideals in his heart – and recently he is angry at a new US government bill that violates his privacy.
有时候，当我看到一些极具加密色彩的项目其背后的团队是来自俄罗斯，如果还知道他们身上具有反叛精神，我都会额外特别地加以关注。
Sometimes when I see some extremely encrypted projects with teams from Russia behind them, and if I also know that they have a spirit of rebellion, I will pay extra special attention to them.
5、Ron跌下来合适定投吗?
5, does Ron fall for a given vote?
相比起Magic，至少在游戏这个生态，我觉得Ron目前的表现是要更好。但我对它的了解还很一般，我觉得还需要观察，所以我只是买了一些，在这个周期，我不会定投。
I think Ron is doing better today than Magic, at least in the ecology of the game. But my understanding of it is still very general, and I think I need to see it, so I just bought some, and I don't vote for it in this cycle.
Magic有了新的举措，准备构建自己的第二层扩展系统。这个做法和Ron很类似了。虽说现在还不好说这个成效如何，但至少还在给生态赋能，我觉得是很值得观察的。
Magic has a new initiative to build his own second-tier extension system. This approach is very similar to Ron. It's hard to tell how it works, but at least it's still giving ecological power, and I think it's worth observing.
6、一层网络的哪个币值得定投?
一层网络的币我只定投了比特币和以太坊，没有定投任何其它币。
I only ordered bitcoin and Etheral, and I didn't do anything else.
7、对Sora怎么看?
What do you think of Sora?
这是个人工智能的问题。正好我最近也在学习一些关于人工智能的知识，就尝试着分享一下我的一点看法。
It's a question of artificial intelligence. Just as I've been learning about artificial intelligence recently, I'm trying to share a little bit of my perspective.
很多人把Sora仅仅只是看成是一个视频处理工具，然后沿着这个思路线性延展：我们现在能做5分钟的视频，未来能做30分钟的视频，再未来能做120分钟的视频......，这样下去终究有一天人工智能会颠覆好莱坞，颠覆电影行业。
Many see Sora only as a video processing tool, and then follow this thinking line: we can do five minutes of video now, 30 minutes of video in the future, and 120 minutes of video in the future... so that one day artificial intelligence will destabilize Hollywood and the film industry.
这种思路对不对呢?
That's the idea, isn't it?
当然对，但是太过于局限了，不够发散。
Of course, but it's too limited to spread.
这就好比上世纪，人们第一次看到互联网时，看到网页上能看新闻，马上想到的是我们以后不用看报纸了，互联网会颠覆传统传媒。
It's like in the last century, when people see the Internet for the first time, when they see news on their web pages, it's like we don't have to read newspapers anymore, and the Internet is going to destabilize traditional media.
我们现在再看，这样的联想是不是太过于单薄了?
Let's see now. Isn't that too thin a connection?
同样的道理Sora也是如此。
The same goes for Sora.
Sora有一个很重要的意义在于它对数据按照视频方式进行了预处理后，再传给GPT，GPT就能处理视频。
One important aspect of Sora is that it preprocesses the data by video and then transmits them to the GPT, which handles the video.
所以这其中的关键点在于数据的预处理，这是Sora的核心创新。
So the key point here is the pre-processing of data, which is the core innovation of Sora.
按照这个思路，我们只要能设计出合适的数据预处理工具，就能把各个领域的数据都交给GPT进行处理。
Along these lines, if we can design appropriate data pre-processing tools, we can turn over data in all areas to GPT for processing.
实际上我们的大脑就是这么工作的。
That's how our brain actually works.
我们的五官采集的是完全不同的数据，但统统都能被大脑处理。在这个过程中我们的五官起的核心作用就是对采集的数据进行了预处理。
Our five officials collect completely different data, but they can all be treated by the brain. The central role of our five officials in this process is to pre-process the data collected.
按这个原理，我们只要知道眼睛是如何对数据进行预处理的，我们做出这样的预处理设备，直接连接到大脑，盲人就完全可以和正常人一样有视觉，甚至人类都不需要肉 体眼睛也能有视觉。
And by this principle, as long as we know how the eyes preprocess the data, we make pre-processing devices that connect directly to the brain, the blind can be as visible as the normal human being, not even the flesh, but the eyes.
同理，我们只要能做出合适的预处理设备连到大脑，我们很可能也能具备动物们具备的特异功能。
By the same token, if we can make the right pre-treatment equipment to the brain, we can probably also have the special function of animals.
- 主流币
- 山寨币
- NFT
- 空投
- 市场叙事
您可能也注意到了，本文分析不包含Meme币部分——这不是我所擅长的领域。
You may have noticed that this analysis does not include the Meme Currency section & mdash; & mdash; this is not my area of expertise.
比特币
bitcoin/strong>
从长周期来看，主流币的表现可谓相当强劲。举例来说，比特币在3月31日创下了历史性的最高月度收盘价，这已经是比特币连续第七个月度呈现上涨态势。在比特币ETF获批、贝莱德首席执行官Fink和MicroStrategy首席执行官Saylor共同唱多的背景下，市场无疑被注入了一剂强心针。而目前距离比特币减半仅剩几周的时间，市场普遍预期减半将会进一步推动比特币价格的上涨。因此，从目前的趋势和各项因素来看，我很难想象比特币牛市会在第二季度就画上句号。
For example, Bitcoin achieved its historic high monthly cut on March 31, which is the seventh consecutive month of Bitcoin’s upward trend. Given current trends and factors, it is difficult to imagine that Bitcoins will end in the second quarter.
以太坊
Polymarket 预测市场的数据显示，市场似乎已经消化了大部分 (甚至全部) 关于以太坊 ETF 驳回的利空预期。以太坊首个审批截止日期为 5 月 23 日，届时我们将获得更多消息。
PollyMarket predicts the market, which seems to have absorbed most (or even all) of the favourable expectations about the ETF’s rejection. The first deadline for approval is May 23, when we get more information.
除了传统的现货 ETF 之外，几家业界领先的 ETF 发行商还提交了将质押服务纳入现货 ETF 本身的申请。我认为这是一个自然且合乎逻辑的举措，因为传统金融机构青睐收益，而质押收益正是以太坊协议本身所固有的特性。此外，鉴于：
In addition to the traditional spot ETF, several industry leading ETF distributors have submitted applications to include the pledge service in the spot ETF itself. I think this is a natural and logical initiative, because traditional financial institutions prefer the proceeds, which are inherent in the Etheraya agreement itself. Moreover, given:
- 比特币现货ETF的成功；
- 贝莱德在申请ETF方面的过往成功记录；
- Coinbase不断在争取监管的透明度；
- 以太坊期货ETF与现货ETF的紧密相关性；
- SEC主席之前对虚拟货币所发表的矛盾性言论；
我坚信以太坊ETF在今年内有望获批。
I am confident that Ethio ETF will be approved in the course of this year.
Solana
早在2023年8月，我就对Solana持看涨观点，如今眼见其潜力在现实中逐渐兑现，内心深感欣慰。尽管Solana的发展道路上不乏质疑之声，但正是这些挑战与争议，让我对其前景更加坚定看好。事实证明，Solana已经稳固了自己作为业界顶流的地位，且我坚信，在第二季度，Solana的发展势头将更为强劲。
As early as August 2023, I took a strong view of Solana, whose potential is now being realized in reality, and which I am very pleased to see. While there is much to question on the way to development in Solana, it is these challenges and controversies that have given me a firmer look at the future.
Solana无疑已经找到了产品与市场之间的完美契合点，无论是从易于上手的链上赌场，还是到具有革新性的实物资产代币化（RWA）和去中心化物理基础设施网络（DePIN）协议，其应用领域的广泛性和创新性都令人瞩目。Solana核心团队与生态系统建设者们展现出的快速迭代能力更是令人印象深刻，不断推动着Solana的发展与进步。
Solana has undoubtedly found the perfect interface between products and markets, from easy-to-hand casinos to innovative physical asset monetization (RWA) and de-centralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) agreements, whose applications are both wide-ranging and innovative. Solana’s core team and ecosystem builders have shown an impressive surge in capacity, constantly driving the development and progress of Solana.
第二季度将是协议发布代币的密集期，我们后续将深入探讨这些代币的潜力和影响。Solana凭借其独特的魅力，先是通过Meme币吸引了大量关注，紧接着又用去中心化应用（dApp）留住了用户。显而易见，其他L1/L2/L3生态系统都渴望复制Solana的成功模式。随着FTX的落幕，我认为在经历了前段时间的整合期后，Solana有望在第二季度继续高歌猛进，展现其强劲的发展势头。
With the fall of the FTX, I believe that, after the consolidation period of the previous period, Solana is expected to continue with a strong momentum in the second quarter.
最后，一旦现货以太坊ETF获得批准，我预计这将成为传统金融（TradFi）进军Solana领域的催化剂。机构对Solana的需求早已显露无遗，从过去的数字资产基金流向以及灰度（Grayscale）的SOL信托产品就可以窥见一二。以太坊现货ETF的获批将让市场目光更加聚焦在Solana这个千年老三身上，进一步推动其在加密货币市场中的崛起。
Finally, I expect that this will be a catalyst for traditional finance (TradFi) in the area of Solana, once the spot is approved. The agency’s demand for Solana has long been evident, from past digital asset fund flows and the Grayscale SOL trust product.
总之，我非常看好 Solana 的前景。当月线图呈现这样的形态，整体市场情绪仍然持币观望时，这往往只有一个预示：价格将大幅上涨。
In short, I look very well at the outlook for Solana. When the map of the moon shows this pattern and the overall market mood remains on the watch, there is often only one sign: prices will rise dramatically.
除了上述提到的因素之外，以下是一些其他值得关注的利好信息：
In addition to the factors mentioned above, the following are some other positive messages of concern:
- 比特币减半：预计在4月20日左右发生，可能会利好比特币价格；
- Robinhood收益报告：将于4月24 日发布，市场将关注其对加密货币市场的潜在影响；
- Doge 期货交易上线 Coinbase：定于4月29日，可能会增加狗狗币的交易量和关注度；
- Coinbase收益报告：暂定于5月2日发布，其业绩表现可能会影响市场情绪；
- 以太坊现货ETF 审批截止日期：为 5 月 23 日，该事件及其后续的 ETF 相关决定都可能对以太坊价格产生重大影响；
山寨币
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Strange
与 2023 年第四季度的疯狂上涨相比，过去一个季度许多山寨币兑比特币的汇率出现了显著下跌。考虑到以下因素，这种下跌是可以理解的：
Compared with the insane rise in the fourth quarter of 2023, many of the currency exchange rates in the past quarter have declined significantly to bitcoin. This decline is understandable given the following factors:
- 机构对 BTC 的关注：包括现货 ETF 批准和即将到来的减半，机构投资者将注意力集中在比特币身上；
- Meme币的疯狂：市场上充斥着大量的Meme币，分散了投资者的注意力；
我与该领域的许多项目建设者进行过交流，他们担心这种情况会改变该领域正统建设者的激励机制。当人们可以通过推出Meme币轻松获利时，谁还会愿意埋头苦干开发未来金融基础设施和协议呢？
I interacted with many project builders in this area, who feared that this would change the incentives of the orthodox builders in this area. Who would be willing to work hard to develop future financial infrastructure and agreements when people could easily profit from the Meme coin?
归根结底，加密货币市场 (以及其他市场) 都是一场流量争夺战。每个项目的目标都是保持相关性和吸引眼球。尽管现有的Meme价格下跌，但一些新发行的代币 (例如 ETHFI、DYM、JUP) 自推出以来表现良好。这再次印证了流量的重要性。
In the final analysis, the crypto-currency market (and other markets) is a traffic battle. The goal of each project is to remain relevant and attract attention. Despite the fall in current Meme prices, some of the newly issued tokens (e.g. ETHFI, DYM, JUP) have performed well since their launch. This confirms the importance of the flow.
那么什么会引发山寨币的再次上涨呢？我心中最重要的两个利好因素是：
So what would trigger a further rise in the mountain coins? The two most important factors in my mind are:
- SEC 诉Coinbase 案的进展：如果美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 败诉，并澄清代币并非证券，将利好整个山寨币市场；
- Uniswap V3 治理代币费用转换：Uniswap V3 治理代币费用转换可能会增加对治理代币的需求，进而利好其价格；
我预计这两个事件都可能发生在第二季度。
I expect both events to take place in the second quarter.
在期待上述两大潜在利好因素发展的同时，我们也不能忽视细分领域中那些表现抢眼的山寨币。正如过去几个月所展现的那样，这些山寨币很可能继续领跑市场。由于涉及的加密项目众多，难以在此全部列举。
While we look forward to the development of these two major potential benefits, we cannot ignore those in the sub-sectors that act badly. As has been shown in the past few months, they are likely to continue to lead the market.
NFT
2023年9月，众多主流媒体纷纷宣称NFT已走向没落。然而，随后NFT市场却展现出了一些复苏的苗头，尽管这些迹象时而明显时而微弱。与2021年底和2022年初的繁荣时期相比，当前的NFT市场活动仍然显得较为低迷。
In September 2023, many mainstream media announced that NFT had fallen. However, NFT markets have since shown some signs of recovery, though these signs have become apparent at times and have been weak. The current NFT market activity is still relatively low compared to the boom periods of late 2021 and early 2022.
在我看来，造成 NFT 市场低迷的原因主要有两个：
In my opinion, there are two main reasons why NFT markets are depressed:
Meme币满足了投机者的赌徒心理：Meme的兴起吸引了原本可能参与 NFT 交易的投机者，满足了他们渴望快速获利的心理；过剩的 JPEG 图片让市场倍感乏味：市场上充斥着大量同质化的 NFT 项目，使得藏家感到审美疲劳；
Meme coins satisfy the gambler’s mentality: Meme’s rise has attracted speculators who might otherwise have been involved in the NFT deal, satisfying their desire for quick profit; the excess JPEG pictures have made the market boring: the market is filled with a large number of homogenous NFT projects, and Tibetans are tired of the beauty test;
尽管整体 NFT 市场低迷，但过去一个季度，我们看到比特币相关的 NFT 项目明显跑赢大盘。我认为像 Puppets、NodeMonkes 和 RSICs 这样的头部项目在第二季度将继续表现良好。
Despite the overall low NFT market, over the past quarter we've seen a clear victory for the Bitcoin-related NFT projects. I think headline projects like Puppets, NodeMonkes and RSICs will continue to perform well in the second quarter.
这不仅仅适用于 NFT 市场，我观察到一个普遍的市场规律：
Not only does this apply to NFT markets, I observe a general market pattern:
- 市场推出了新技术，并明确相应的市场领导者；
- 新技术门槛降低，使得购买和铸造NFT变得更为容易；
- 市场出现了大量山寨项目（“我们将会是下一个CryptoPunks”）；
- 只有少数山寨项目能够兑现承诺并取得成功，绝大多数项目最终因为缺乏创新和价值而销声匿迹；
在抄袭项目涌现和大众可以更容易铸造 NFT这两者之间，供给会远远超过需求，导致市场价格一路下跌。
Between the emergence of copying projects and the fact that the public can more easily forge NFTs, supply far exceeds demand, leading to falling market prices.
更糟糕的是，NFT 的流动性相对较差，不像 Meme币 和山寨币那样容易变现。
Worse still, NFT is relatively less mobile than Memeco and Montagnard.
在牛市里，NFT 的流动性差反而是个优势。稀缺性会抬高价格。比如在 2021 年 8 月到 9 月，BAYC 的价格能从 5 个 ETH 涨到 40 个 ETH，而同期 ETH 的价格只从 3000 美元左右涨到 4000 美元左右。
In the cattle market, NFT's poor liquidity is an advantage. Scarcity raises prices. For example, between August and September 2021, BayC's prices rose from 5 ETHs to 40 ETHs, while during the same period the prices of ETHs rose from around $300 to about $4000.
但是，在熊市里，NFT 的流动性差就变成一个大问题。当参与者急于抛售的时候，很难找到接盘侠。
But in Bear City, NFT's lack of mobility becomes a big problem. When the participants rush to sell, it's hard to find the picker.
所以，目前市场究竟是在哪个阶段呢？
So, at what stage is the market?
经历了严酷的熊市洗礼，一些社区依旧屹立不倒。其中， Pudgy Penguins和Mad Lads这两个社区的表现尤为出色。我们通常可以看到，行业的领军人物和资深成员们常常选择这两个项目作为他们的头像。而从它们最近在2023年第四季度和2024年第一季度的价格飙升情况来看，持有这两个项目中的任何一个都显然是一项极具眼光的投资决策。无论是早期便精准布局并坚定持有的投资者，还是后期凭借雄厚财力果断入场的买家，都展现了对于这两个项目未来潜力的深刻认识和信任。
As we can see, industry leaders and senior members often choose these two projects as their heads. And, judging from their recent price surges in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, it is clear that either of these projects is a highly visible investment decision.
在这两种情况下，NFT建设者们都渴望吸引这些NFT持有者，将他们视为潜在的目标群体，试图以此为基础启动自己的项目和社区。因此，这些社区频繁地成为各种空投活动的目标对象。
In both cases, NFT builders are eager to attract these NFT holders as potential target groups and try to start their own projects and communities on this basis. As a result, these communities are frequently targeted for various air-drop activities.
预计这种情况将持续至第二季度。随着更多与BTC相关的协议崭露头角，我们可能会看到puppets 跟nodemonkes社区开始成为新的焦点，吸引众多建设者的目光。
This is expected to continue until the second quarter. As more BTC-related agreements emerge, we may see that the puppets and the Nodemonkes community are beginning to become a new focus, attracting the attention of many builders.
随着第二季度的到来，我们将目睹大量的空投活动。这些活动标志着众多低调建设的项目开始进入代币发行和分发阶段。观察这些项目，我们可以发现一些有趣的元数据现象：
With the arrival of the second quarter, we will be witnessing a great deal of air-drop activity. These events mark the beginning of a period in which many low-key construction projects are being issued and distributed in tokens. Looking at these projects, we can see some interesting metadata phenomena:
- 流动性引导池（LBP）: LBP成为规模较小的项目的首选。这种方式不仅能够帮助项目引导流动性，更是其测试代币市场需求的有效手段。同时，LBP也维持了一种激励结构，奖励那些早期且较小规模的购买者，从而确保代币的公平分发和市场的健康发展；
- 积分计划 :积分计划作为一种广为人知的策略，已经在多个协议项目中运行超过一年以上，旨在奖励用户的积极参与和贡献。在像Whales市场和Aevo平台这样的交易场所，用户不仅能够积累积分，还可以对冲或交易他们的积分和预发行代币。然而，这种交易并非总是顺风顺水。举例来说，在Whales平台上，用户必须提供抵押品，并且关于总积分的数量以及某些协议如何进行精确转换的信息，往往存在不对称性，这给交易带来了一定的复杂性和风险。与此同时，另一种奖励机制——农场点数，也在以太坊等平台上崭露头角。它将用户的参与和贡献量化为可交易的资产，为用户提供了更多的灵活性和奖励机会。Gearbox和Pendle就是在以太坊上成功实施这一机制的优秀协议，它们通过农场点数系统，有效地激励了用户的参与，并推动了整个生态的发展。然而，令人遗憾的是，在Solana生态中，我们尚未发现与Gearbox和Pendle相媲美的协议；
- 质押元数据 :质押在区块链生态中扮演着越来越重要的角色。简单来说，通过质押某个治理代币，持有者便能够从与该质押代币集成的协议中获得一系列空投奖励。这种机制不仅为代币持有者提供了额外的激励，同时也促进了不同协议之间的深度合作与生态发展。最初，这种质押机制在Celestia项目中得到了广泛应用，并展现出了其巨大的潜力。由于Celestia的数据可用性（DA）技术能够帮助集成其的协议节省大量的费用，因此，那些从Celestia的DA技术中获益的协议有动力去奖励TIA的质押者，从而确保网络的安全性和稳定性。这种奖励机制有效地抬高了TIA的价格，进一步巩固了其在市场中的地位。最近，我们观察到这种质押机制已经扩展到了PYTH、JUP等其他项目。这些项目通过引入质押机制，不仅提升了代币的经济价值，还加强了与其他协议的合作关系，共同构建了一个更加繁荣的区块链生态；
第二季度最值得期待的空投如下：
The most desirable drops in the second quarter are as follows:
日期已确定的：
dates have been established:
- Ethena($ENA) 4月2日
- Wormhole($W) 4月3日
- Zeus($ZEUS) 4月4日
Solana:
- Parcl($PRCL)
- Tensor($TNSR)
- Kamino($KMNO) 极有可能在4月
- Drift Protocol ($DRIFT) 预计会在第二季度的某个时间点
模块化：
Modularization:
- Nim network ($NIM)
- Rivalz Network ($RIZ)
- Avail
- LightLink
再质押：
re-encumbered:
- Renzo
- Eigenlayer
- Swell
- Kelp
AI:
- GetGrass
- IONet
其他:
Other:
- ZKSync
- LayerZero
- Hyperliquid
- Blast
注意，以上列举可能会有遗漏。
Note that the list above may be omitted.
比特币减半
bitcoin50%/strong>
随着比特币减半的临近，我们看到了与比特币相关的协议如雨后春笋般涌现，其中许多项目尚未发行代币。这种趋势与Stacks（STX）的成功表现相呼应，预示着未来可能有一波与比特币紧密相关的代币崛起。在2023年12月比特币现货ETF批准的利好落地前，我们已经经历过部分与比特币相关的代币（如MUBI、BSSB、ORDI和TRAC）的价格大幅上涨。可以预见，在比特币减半前后，我们将见证更大规模的代币价格上涨。
This trend echoes the success of Stacks (STX) and augurs well for the future of a wave of coins closely associated with bitcoins. We have already experienced a substantial increase in the prices of some bitcoins (such as MUBI, BSSB, ORDI, and TRAC) before the profit approved by Bitcoin’s spot ETF in December 2023.
以太坊ETF / 再质押
encumber
尽管以太坊近期经历波折，但从2000多美元涨至4000美元的表现凸显其韧性。然而，以太坊仍面临关键的市场挑战，包括现货以太坊ETF的决定和Eigenlayer再质押/LRT代币的推出。EtherFi的TGE成功表明市场对再质押的兴趣浓厚。随着Eigenlayer的推出，我们预计以太坊生态将逐渐转向类似Celestia的模式，其中参与和再质押将成为获取空投资格的关键。此外，Karak协议作为通用资产再质押的建设者，如果Eigenlayer的推出取得巨大成功，Karak也有望大放异彩。
With the launch of Eigenlayer, we expect to move gradually to a Celestia-like model in which participation and re-prising will be key to obtaining empty investment grids. Moreover, Karak, as a builder of generic asset re-prising, is expected to do much better if Eigenlayer’s roll-out succeeds.
SocialFi
SocialFi领域近期展现出显著的增长态势，Farcaster和$DEGEN的强势上扬便是这一趋势的有力证明。FriendTech，作为该领域的佼佼者，敏锐地捕捉到了市场的这一需求，并持续深耕。回顾2023年8月至9月，FriendTech的迅猛增长令人印象深刻，显示出其在SocialFi领域的深厚实力和广阔前景。
FriendTech, as a champion in the field, has been keenly seized of this demand in the market and continues to grow. Looking back at the dramatic growth of FriendTech between August and September 2023, it shows its strong strength and broad prospects in the field of SocialFi.
市场对FT V2的发布及空投充满期待，尤其是考虑到积分的交易价值，这无疑为FriendTech的未来发展注入了强大的动力。若FT V2能够表现出色，不仅将巩固FriendTech在SocialFi领域的领先地位，更可能对其他SocialFi项目，如Fantasy top，产生深远的积极影响。
Market expectations about the release of FT V2 and airdrops, especially given the trade value of the credits, undoubtedly injected a powerful impetus into FriendTech’s future development. If FTV2 were to show some success, it would not only consolidate FriendTech’s leading position in the field of SocialFi, but could have a far-reaching positive impact on other socialFi projects, such as Fantasy top.
最后，如果FriendTech的积分真的能够实现10美元以上的售价，那么Farcaster很可能会借此东风推出自己的代币，进一步推动SocialFi领域的发展。这一系列的动态都预示着区块链行业未来的巨大潜力和机遇。
Finally, if FriendTech’s score is really worth more than $10, Farcaster is likely to use it to launch his own token to further the development of SocialFi. This series of dynamics augurs well for the future potential and opportunities of the block chain industry.
加密货币 x 人工智能（AI）
Encrypted Currency x Artificial Intelligence (AI)
我将AI币分为两类：
I divided the AI into two categories:
- 分散计算/存储/带宽
- 机器学习/人工智能/LLM封装器
getGrass和IONet的推出，无疑为第一类别项目注入了新的活力。作为该领域的先行者，Render在过去一个季度内的卓越表现，已充分证明了其市场领导者的地位。与此同时，英伟达等科技巨头的强劲收益和持续增长，也进一步激发了市场对分散计算、存储及带宽技术的浓厚兴趣。
As a pioneer in this area, Render’s remarkable performance over the past quarter has amply demonstrated his position as a market leader. At the same time, the strong returns and sustained growth of such tech giants as Weida have further stimulated a strong market interest in decentralized computing, storage, and bandwidth technology.
在机器学习/人工智能/LLM封装器这一类别中，现有LLM和人工智能能力的每一次更新都成为了推动项目发展的催化剂。目前，市场上的许多项目都是基于现有模型的封装器，因此ChatGPT、Sora、Bard等领先模型的更新无疑为这些项目带来了上涨的动力。作为该领域的领导者，Bittensor的卓越表现一直备受瞩目。其成功不仅提升了自身估值，也带动了整个类别项目的市场表现。回顾第一季度，Bittensor的强劲增长令人印象深刻，其代币TAO的价格从200美元左右飙升至700多美元。进入第二季度，市场或许会出现短暂的盘整期，但长远来看，这一领域的潜力依然巨大。
In the category of machine learning/ artificial intelligence/LLLM sealers, every update of existing LLM and artificial intelligence capabilities has served as a catalyst for project development. At present, many of the projects in the market are captors based on existing models, and therefore the updating of leading models such as ChatGPT, Sora, Bard, etc. have undoubtedly given rise to an upward trend. As leaders in this area, Bittensor’s excellent performance has been high.
另一个值得期待的看涨因素是Wayfinder（$PROMPT）的推出。Parallel TCG和Colony背后的团队正在研发一种专门用于导航区块链领域的LLM，这将为人工智能在区块链行业的应用开辟新的道路。随着我们对这一创新技术的了解逐渐深入，相信它将再次点燃市场对人工智能/LLM相关项目的热情。
Another factor to be expected is the launch of Wayfinder ($PROMPT). The team behind Parallel TPG and Colony is developing an LLM dedicated to the area of the navigational block chain, which will open new avenues for the use of artificial intelligence in the block chain industry.
声明：本文作者是Parallel / Wayfinder的投资者。
Statement: The author of this paper is Parallel / Wayfinder's investor.
模块化区块链
Modular Block Chain
模块化区块链正在成为区块链领域的新热点。在2023年第四季度结束时，市场领导者Celestia经历了一轮强势上涨，随后进入盘整阶段。不过，从实际进展来看，它的发展势头似乎依然强劲。如今，诸如Aevo、Lyra、Conduit、Polygon和RitualAI等应用已经开始利用Celestia进行数据可用性拓展，Dymension也呈现出类似的趋势。
Modular block chains are becoming a new hotspot in the area of block chains. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the market leader Celestia went through a wave of strong rises and then moved to a full-scale phase.
随着这些基于模块化区块链基础设施的项目表现优异并陆续进行空投，人们的目光自然转向了模块化区块链这一类别。因此，我预计我们将见证另一轮价格上涨，尤其是在SEC诉Coinbase关于代币证券属性的案件传来好消息的情况下。
As these projects, based on modular block chain infrastructure, perform excellently and make successive aerial drops, people naturally turn their eyes to the modular block chain category. So, I expect that we will witness another round of price increases, especially when good news comes from the SEC v Coinbase case on the identity of token securities.
此外，随着2024年年底代币解锁期限的日益临近，我预计基础设施项目（如DYM和TIA）以及与之集成的d'app会在团队和投资者代币解锁之前展开一定程度的协调行动，共同制定策略，以应对潜在的市场变化。
In addition, as the period of de-locking of currencies approaches towards the end of 2024, I anticipate infrastructure projects (e.g., DYM and TIA) and the combination of d' app will undertake a degree of concerted action before team and investor de-locking to develop strategies to respond to potential market changes.
从更长远的角度看，我坚信这些市场先驱者通过重新定价和取得显著成就，将推动模块化区块链领域逐步走向成熟与饱和。我预测这一周期将按以下步骤发展：
From a longer-term perspective, I am confident that these market pioneers, through repricing and significant achievements, will move the area of modular block chains towards maturity and saturation. I anticipate that this cycle will evolve along the following steps:
- 首先，基础设施项目将为d'app和中间件提供资金支持，通过节省成本的方式助其发展；
- 随着这些项目的空投活动，价格也有望重新攀升；
- 接着，一系列后续或测试项目将陆续进入市场，尽管其中一些可能具备一定的价值，但它们的地位难以与市场领导者相提并论；
- 最后，随着项目数量的不断增加，可能会涌现出一些零使用率的项目。这些项目或许基于一些新颖酷炫的技术，但仍主要依赖于那些错过前两个阶段投资机会的投资者提供资金支持；
当然，在这个过程中，还可能出现其他情景，如RWA、DEXes、DePIN和Blast等项目的崛起等，都会为这一领域增添更多变数。
Of course, there may be other scenarios in the process, such as the rise of projects such as RWA, DEXES, DePIN and Blast, which add additional variables to this area.
以上就是脚本之家小编给大家分享的加密货币行情和二季度行情预测了，希望大家喜欢！
That's the encrypted currency and second-quarter forecast shared by Script House's little editor. I hope you like it!
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