再一次，我们又见证了历史。
Once again, we have witnessed history.
之前我们可是已经见过了美股十天四次熔断的场面，但美股涨停的场面你见过没有？相信几乎所有人都没见过，而昨晚却让我们看到了如此奇观。
We've seen the scene of the ten-day melting, but have you seen the scene of the winding-up of the stock? I'm sure almost everyone has, and last night we saw so amazingly.
昨晚美股道琼斯指数暴涨超2100点，一天的涨幅就超过了11%，而且值得一提的是，这个涨幅是道指87年前，也就是1933年来最大涨幅，妥妥的百年一遇啊！
Last night, the USC-Jones Index surged by over 2,100 points, a day up by more than 11%, and it's worth mentioning that this is the 100-year-old 100-year rise in the index 87 years ago, the largest since 1933.
如今的我们可以自豪的说，巴菲特说一辈子就看见五次熔断，我10天就实现了四次，而且我们还看到美股暴涨的一天，看来我们确实比股神厉害啊。
Today we can be proud to say that Barfitt has seen five meltings in his life, and I have achieved four in 10 days, and we have seen the day when the stock of the United States rose, and it seems that we are really better than the gents.
之前还是暴跌，如今就暴涨了，恍如从熊市一下子进化到超级大牛市，背后到底发生了什么？让我们一起来看看吧~~~
Before it fell, it just soared, as if it had evolved from Bear to Super Bull. What's going on behind it? Let's have a look.
美股史诗级暴涨！道指狂飙2100点
The U.S.-H.S. Poetry has gone up! The finger has gone wild at 2100.
周二美股全线暴涨，道指收盘大涨逾2100点，创史上最大单日上涨点数，以及1933年以来的最大单日百分比涨幅。
On Tuesday, the United States stock skyrocketed, pointing to a winding up of more than 2100 points, the largest single-day rise in history, and the largest single-day percentage increase since 1933.
具体数据为，道琼斯指数收盘报20704.91点，上涨2112.98点，涨幅11.37%，按点数算为历史最大单日上涨，按上涨幅度算则为1933年以来的最大的单日涨幅；纳斯达克指数收盘报7417.86点，上涨557.18点，涨幅8.12%；标普500指数报2447.33点，上涨209.93点，涨幅9.38%。
Specifically, the Dow Jones Index received 20704.91 points, which rose by 2112.98, representing an increase of 11.37 per cent, the largest single-day increase in history by dots, and the largest single-day increase since 1933; the NASDAQ Index received 7417.86 points, an increase of 557.18 points, an increase of 8.12 per cent; and the Standard 500 Index reported 2447.33 points, an increase of 209.93, an increase of 9.38 per cent.
想必特朗普总统看到这样的场景，心里肯定是美滋滋的。
President Trump must have seen something like this.
板块方面，多家航空公司股价涨幅超过20%，美国航空上涨35.8%，联合大陆航空上涨25.71%，达美航空上涨21.02%，阿拉斯加航空上涨20.31%。石油公司同样表现不俗，雪佛龙、英国石油、皇家壳牌涨幅超过20%。科技股方面，特斯拉上涨16.28%，股价重回500美元；苹果上涨10.03%，总市值重回10000亿美元。
Oil companies also performed well, with Chevron, British oil, and Royal Shells rising by more than 20%. For technology, Tesla rose by 16.28% and returned to $500; and apples by 10.03%, with a total market value of $100 billion.
由于涨的太疯狂，投资者们都看呆了。甚至有财经新闻APP发出了乌龙消息，说美股涨到熔断。
The rise was too crazy for investors to see. Even the financial news, the APP, sent a U-Lone message that the US stock had sunk.
同样疯狂的还有黄金市场
There's also the gold market.
现货黄金周二大幅上涨逾4.8%。美市盘中，多头再接再厉，推动金价进一步攀升，并刷新至日高1632.90美元/盎司，较日低拉升80美元，收于1628.60美元/盎司，上涨75.05美元或4.83%。
Cash gold rose significantly by more than 4.8 per cent on Tuesday, and many times continued to push the price of gold up even further and to upgrade it to $162.90 per ounce per day, to $80 per day, to $1628.60 per ounce, to $75.05 or 4.83 per cent.
由于现货黄金太疯狂了，导致了周二中午开始黄金交易出现异常，经纪商平台的黄金报价点差暴涨，部分甚至高达8000多点。
Owing to the madness of spot gold, which led to an anomaly in the start of the gold trade at noon on Tuesday, the gold offer for the broker platform sharply increased, in part to more than 8,000 points.
24日新加坡时间中午12点起，全球各大银行黄金报价陆续出现问题，黄金的流通量极度缺乏，导致整个市场出现点差极高，时常中断交易、以及主要券商的报价也各不相同的情况。
From 12 p.m. on 24 September Singapore time, there was a problem with gold offers from major global banks, a severe shortage of gold flows, leading to a very high margin across the market, frequent interruptions in transactions and varying offers from major bond dealers.
根据我们观察，部分经纪商平台的黄金报价点差甚至已经暴增到8000多点（约80多美金），部分黄金报价出现阶段性暂停。另外，白银报价点差也出现几百点的异常值。
According to our observations, the gold price difference for some of the brokers’ platforms has increased dramatically to more than 8,000 points (about $80), and some of the gold offers have been phased out. In addition, the silver price difference also shows an anomaly of several hundred points.
太火爆了都，最近一段时间的黄金行情确实很大呀，每天要涨都是20美元起底的，而且经过昨天那一波大涨，大家仿佛一夜之间变性格了，从不看好黄金变成了非常之看好黄金，昨天还在说黄金会跌到哪里哪里的人们，今天变成了无比看好黄金。
It's too hot, it's been a long time since gold went up at the bottom of $20 a day, and after yesterday's wave, it's like you've changed overnight, never looking bad at gold, never looking very good at gold, and yesterday people who are saying where it's going to fall, are today looking really good at gold.
Economies.com在最新的文章中写道，金价成功触及其第二个等待的目标1633.60美元/盎司，预计金价将继续看涨倾向并突破1633.60美元/盎司，从而为金价在短期内进一步大涨打开道路，下一目标指向1689.30美元/盎司。
In a recent article, Economies.com wrote that gold prices had succeeded in reaching its second waiting target of $163.60 per ounce, and that it was expected that gold prices would continue to look up and outpace $163.60 per ounce, thus opening the way for further sharp increases in gold prices in the short term, with the next target pointing to $1689.30 per ounce.
（现货黄金4小时图）
(Four hours of cash gold)
Economies.com补充说道，除非金价跌破1599.10美元/盎司且维持在这一水平下方，否则看涨情景仍将有效。
Economies.com added that the scenario would remain valid unless the gold price fell by $1599.10 per ounce and remained below that level.
而且显然，1689啥的都是so easy，因为有人预言11000美元。
And apparently, 1689 was all so easy, because there were predictions of $11,000.
《货币战争》作者、著名的黄金多头Jim Rickards周一(3月23日)表示，从前两次牛市行情来看，2015年的底部可能就是下一轮10年黄金牛市的起点。
The famous gold head Jim Rickards, the author of the Monetary War, said on Monday (23 March) that, according to the two previous cattle market developments, the bottom of 2015 might be the starting point for the next round of the 10-year gold cow market.
从历史上看，自从1971年取消金本位以来，黄金价格经历了两次主要的“牛市”波动，分别是1971年至1980年和1999年至2011年在这两次牛市中，金价分别上涨了2100%和650%。从上述图表中可以看出，金价在2008-09年金融危机开始时下跌，但在大约一半的时候又开始像火箭一样飙升。最后，还可以从图表中看到，2015年底是黄金最近的“底部”价格。
Historically, gold prices have experienced two major “cow-market” fluctuations since the removal of the gold standard in 1971, with gold prices rising by 2100% and 650% from 1971 to 1980 and from 1999 to 2011, respectively. As can be seen from the above-mentioned graphs, gold prices fell at the beginning of the 2008-09 financial crisis, but began to rise as rockets in about half of the time.
Rickards写道，2015年12月17日，金价跌至1051美元/盎司的底部，按照平均涨幅和平均持续时间计算，预示着金价将在2026年2月16日触及11000美元/盎司高点。
Rickards wrote that on 17 December 2015, the gold price fell to the bottom of $1051 per ounce and that, based on average increases and average duration, it foresaw that the gold price would reach $11,000 per ounce on 16 February 2026.
虽然，Rickards注意到样本量很小，因此对这个预测持怀疑态度。但金价也可能遵循2008-2011年的走势，当时金价先是下跌，但随后大幅上涨。这个事实却是不争的，所以等待黄金的依然会大涨。
While Rickards is sceptical about this projection, noting the small sample size. But gold prices may also follow the trend of 2008-2011, when gold prices fell first, but then rose significantly.
美股仍然大跌
The American stock is still falling.
虽然美联储周一宣布无限量QE大招，但美股仍然大跌，原因在于美国政府提出超2万亿经济刺激计划后，却在表决程序上出现了反复。上周日，刺激方案未能通过其第一轮程序性投票。周一，由于国会议员在援助陷入困境的企业和失业保护的细节上存在分歧，该法案再次在参议院折戟。
Although the Fed announced an unlimited number of QE moves on Monday, the US share fell sharply, owing to repeated voting procedures following the US government’s offer of an economic stimulus plan of over $2 trillion. Last Sunday, the stimulus package failed to pass its first round of procedural votes.
2万亿美元的经济刺激计划在两次被否后，昨晚，针对这个法案，特朗普终于发了狠话，他表示，国会必须立即采取行动。
Last night, when the $2 trillion stimulus plan was rejected twice, Trump finally spoke harshly about the bill, stating that Congress must act immediately.
而据CNBC报道，美国众议院议长佩洛西也松口了，她表示，非常乐观地认为国会将在接下来的几个小时内达成经济刺激协议。
CCBC reported that the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Pelosi, had given up, expressing great optimism that Congress would reach an economic stimulus agreement within the next few hours.
这些消息导致了周二晚间美股大涨。当然除开2万亿美元经济刺激有望达成这个好消息之外，周二晚间的公布的美国制造业数据也好于预期。
These news stories have led to a sharp rise in US shares on Tuesday night. Of course, aside from the $2 trillion economic stimulus that is expected to bring about this good news, the US manufacturing data released on Tuesday night is better than expected.
3月24日，美国公布数据显示，3月Markit制造业PMI初值49.2，跌入萎缩区间，为2019年7月以来首次，并创下2009年以来新低，好于预期的42.8，低于前值50.7。3月Markit服务业PMI初值为39.1，创历史新低，预期为42，前值为49.4。
On 24 March, data released by the United States indicated that Markit manufacturing PMI started at 49.2 in March, falling into a contractionary zone for the first time since July 2019, and had reached a new low since 2009, better than the projected 42.8, which was lower than the previous 50.7. Markit services started at 39.1 in March, reaching a record low of 42, compared with the previous 49.4.
虽然，有人觉得美国经济已经陷入衰退，但是3月美国制造业PMI好于预期，对市场恐慌情绪有所缓和。
While there was a perception that the United States economy was already in recession, in March the United States manufacturing PMI was better than expected and the panic in the market eased.
刺激计划达成协议
Stimulus plan agreement
北京时间（3月25日）下午得到的最新消息称，美国参议院就两党刺激计划达成协议，白宫也表示，民主党就刺激计划达成协议。市场短线剧烈波动。
According to the latest news received in the afternoon of Beijing time (25 March), the United States Senate agreed on a two-party stimulus plan, and the White House also said that the Democratic Party had agreed on a stimulus plan. The market was volatile.
股市方面，美股股指期货跌幅收窄，道指期货转涨。日经225指数涨幅扩大至逾7%。
On the stock market, the United States stock stock represents a narrow fall in futures and an upturn in futures. The increase in the 225-day index has increased to over 7 per cent.
(亚股表现 来源：CNBC)
Source: CNBC.
汇市方面，澳元/美元短线走高逾20点，一举升破关键的0.6000关口，随后扩大涨幅至1%。
On the exchange market, the AUS$/US$ short line was more than 20 points higher, rising one to the critical point of 0.6000, followed by an increase of up to 1 per cent.
(澳元/美元30分钟图)
(AUS$/$30-minute map)
大宗商品方面，现货黄金短线急跌逾15美元，一度逼近1600美元/盎司关口。现货白银涨幅扩大至1.2%，并在14美元关口上方进一步拉升。
In terms of bulk commodities, spot gold fell by more than $15, once close to $1,600 per ounce. Cash silver increased to 1.2 per cent and rose further above the $14 gate.
最新消息称，美国参议院就两党刺激计划达成协议。据悉美国刺激措施总值逾2万亿美元，其中有2500亿美元作为失业救助，有1300亿美元为医院提供协助。
According to the latest news, the United States Senate agreed on a two-party stimulus package. The total value of the stimulus measures in the United States is said to be over $2 trillion, of which $250 billion is for unemployment relief and $130 billion is for hospitals.
当地时间3月24日，《华尔街日报》援引白宫知情人士报道称，特朗普政府与参议院民主党就大规模刺激计划达成协议。
On 24 March, local time, the Wall Street Journal quoted information from the White House that the Trump Government and the Senate Democratic Party had agreed on a large-scale stimulus plan.
最终，令人欢喜的是当地时间星期三（3月25日）早上，参议院领导人和特朗普政府就2万亿美元的经济刺激方案达成协议，以挽救美国经济免受冠状病毒的攻击，这可能为这项大规模立法在参众两院迅速获得通过奠定基础。
Ultimately, it is gratifying that, on Wednesday morning (25 March), local time, the Senate leaders and the Trump administration agreed on a $2 trillion stimulus package to save the United States economy from the coronary virus, which could lay the groundwork for the swift passage of this massive piece of legislation in both Houses of Parliament.
白宫立法事务主任Eric Ueland在凌晨1点左右告诉记者：“我们达成了协议。”
Eric Ueland, Director of Legislative Affairs of the White House, told the press at around 1 a.m. that “we had an agreement”.
据参议院多数党（共和党）领袖麦康奈尔，两党就历史上最大的救援计划达成了一致，周三晚些时候将对通过美国新冠肺炎经济刺激法案进行投票。美国参议院将在当地时间周三中午复会。综合两党领袖透露的细节：
According to Senator McConnell, the leader of the majority (Republican) party, the two parties have agreed on the largest rescue plan in history, and a vote will be taken later on Wednesday for the adoption of the new United States crown pneumonia economic stimulus bill. The United States Senate will resume its meeting on Wednesday at noon.
美国刺激措施总值逾2万亿美元，其中有2500亿美元作为失业救助，有1300亿美元为医院提供协助，有1500亿美元为州和地方政府提供协助，还将为航空业提供约500亿美元。刺激方案的措施将为家庭直接派发支票。
In the United States, stimulus measures have a total value of over $2 trillion, including $250 billion for unemployment relief, $130 billion for hospitals, $150 billion for state and local governments, and about $50 billion for the airline industry. The stimulus measures will provide direct checks to families.
美国财长努钦表示，如果参众两院通过刺激法案，总统特朗普“当然会”签署。美国刺激措施可能会禁止美国总统特朗普名下的企业接受援助。
U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that if the Senate and Houses passed the stimulus bill, President Trump would “of course” sign it. American stimulus measures might prohibit US President Trump’s firms from receiving assistance.
值得注意的是，按照美联社之前的说法，正在酝酿的经济救助计划规模比2008年的银行救助计划、2009年的经济刺激计划相加还要庞大。
It is worth noting that, according to the Associated Press, the size of the bailout scheme being developed is larger than the 2008 bailout scheme and the 2009 stimulus package combined.
当然这个经济刺激计划的通过也同样有有利于黄金，B. Riley FBR分析师们最新表示，鉴于前所未有的财政和货币政策刺激，他们预计第三季金价将飙升至2500美元/盎司，并在第四季维持该水准。
Of course, the adoption of the stimulus package was also beneficial for gold, and B. Riley FBR analysts have recently indicated that, given unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, they expect gold prices for the third quarter to skyrocket to $2,500 per ounce and to maintain that level in the fourth quarter.
尾声
End
市场对这份刺激计划期望颇高，寄希望于在政府大规模刺激下，市场能够迎来快速且持久的反弹。尽管当前的情况与2008年存在差别，但两者之间的共性足以引人思考。
The market has high expectations for this stimulus, hoping that, with massive government stimulus, the market will be able to rebound quickly and in a sustained manner. While the current situation is different from that of 2008, the commonality between the two is enough for thought.
2008年10月时，美联储利率降至近零水平，且美国国会通过了7000亿美元的经济救助计划。然而，却没有立即在股市奏效：股市之后又跌了4个月，累计下跌40%后，才开始反弹。
In October 2008, the Fed's interest rate fell to near zero, and the US Congress passed a $700 billion bailout plan. However, it did not work immediately: the stock market fell for another four months, with a cumulative decline of 40 per cent before it began to rebound.
当然，当时的金融危机与如今的经济停摆不是一回事儿，但是对于想押注行情反弹的交易员来说，两者的一些相似之处足以供其借鉴。Edward Jones的投资策略师内拉·理查森（Nela Richardson）说：
Of course, the financial crisis was not the same as the current economic stagnation, but for traders who wanted to bet on a backlash, some similarities were sufficient. Edward Jones’ investment strategist, Nela Richardson, said:
“现在要求快速见效还为时过早。这不是一些甜头就能发挥作用的市场类型。经济复苏尚需时日。”
“It is too early to ask for quick results. This is not the type of market where some sweets can work. It will take some time for economic recovery.”
尽管一切皆有可能，但期望市场从可能的全球衰退中重新振作或许太过天真。疫情已经使多个国家封锁边界，并使全球各地企业关闭。一些分析家预测，失业率如此之高，而经济放缓如此严重，唯一可以用来比较的就是大萧条时期。基于周一对巨额美联储刺激计划的惨淡反应，市场消除恐惧可能还需要一些时间。
Although all is possible, it may be naive to expect markets to recover from a possible global recession. The epidemic has forced many countries to close their borders and shut down businesses across the globe. Some analysts predict that unemployment is so high that the economic slowdown is so severe that the Great Depression is the only thing that can be compared.
一些分析师甚至认为当前的情形更加严重。
Some analysts even consider the current situation to be more serious.
JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O’Rourke表示，2008年TARP获通后，美国经济已进入衰退期数月，投资者关注的都是次贷危机。而新冠病毒破坏发展得更快，后果更加严峻。他说：
According to Michael O'Rourke, the chief market strategist of JonesTriding, the United States economy has been in recession for months since the TARP hit in 2008. Investors are concerned about the subprime crisis.
“主要区别在于，整个经济在2008年并没有像今天这样停滞不前。”
“The main difference is that the economy as a whole was not as stagnant in 2008 as it is today.”
DataTrek Research的Nicholas Colas认为，迷信于政府反应的市场应该为2008-2009年复苏期间相同的“走走停停行情”做好准备。
Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research argued that superstitious markets for government responses should be prepared for the same “stop-and-go” situation during the 2008-2009 recovery.
当时，标普500指数创下了数十个单日上涨行情，但直到2009年3月，这些上涨都没有“走得太远”。
At that time, the PHP 500 index created dozens of single-day upswings, but as of March 2009, none of these increases had gone “too far”.
“我们很清楚，2020年的情况比2008年严重两三倍。换句话说，下一次市场崩溃可能就在几天内，而不是几周后。”
“We are well aware that 2020 is two or three times more serious than 2008. In other words, the next market collapse may take place in a few days, not a few weeks.”
中金在线外汇网综合整理自fx168、中国经济网、中国基金报、金十数据等
China Gold Online Foreign Exchange Network consolidated data from fx168, China Economic Network, China Foundation, Kim X, etc.
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