「比特币热潮持续升温，再次逼近历史高点（以美元计算），一个月时间涨幅超过45%。虽然距离比特币供给“减半”还有50天，但是买入需求已经远远超过了每日供应量。比特币现货ETF自1月11日上市以来，资金流入量已经达到74亿美元（约合人民币532亿元），交易量也连续创下新高。；两会今日看点：政协会议开幕 人大会议举行新闻发布会；2024年的车圈注定不平静 小鹏汽车宣布：降价！」
“The Bitcoin heat has continued to rise, again approaching historical heights (in United States dollars), with an increase of more than 45% in one month. While 50 days to cut by half of Bitcoin's supply, the demand for purchases has far exceeded the daily supply. Since its launch on January 11, Bitcoin's spot ETF has reached $7.4 billion (approximately $53.2 billion).
重点新闻
比特币一个月飙升45% 价格剧烈波动风险陡增
bitcoin surges by 45% a month and the risk of high price volatility surges
l 比特币热潮持续升温，再次逼近历史高点（以美元计算），一个月时间涨幅超过45%。
l The Bitcoin heat continued to rise, again approaching historical heights (in United States dollars), with a one-month rise of more than 45 per cent.
l 虽然距离比特币供给“减半”还有50天，但是买入需求已经远远超过了每日供应量。比特币现货ETF自1月11日上市以来，资金流入量已经达到74亿美元（约合人民币532亿元），交易量也连续创下新高。
l Although 50 days from the “half” of Bitcoin supply, the demand for buy-in has far exceeded the daily supply. Since its launch on 11 January, Bitcoin’s spot ETF has reached $7.4 billion (approximately $53.2 billion) in inflows, and transactions have continued to rise.
l 在更多资金流入加密货币领域的同时，也发生了较大的风险事件。诸如2月29日，比特币盘中突破高点后，涨幅从13%收窄至6%的过程中，市场上有近18万人爆仓。比特币价格波动巨大，且不同国家和地区对数字资产的监管政策也存在较大差异，对投资者而言，其中存在巨大风险。
l At the same time as more funds flow into the crypto-currency sector, there have also been significant risk events. For example, on February 29, when a high point in the Bitcoin plate was broken, the increase narrowed from 13% to 6%, with nearly 180,000 people in the market. Bitcoin prices fluctuated significantly, and regulatory policies for digital assets varied widely across countries and regions, with significant risks for investors.
l 比特币ETF市场流入74亿美元
∙ $7.4 billion in the Bitcoin ETF market
l 今年以来，比特币价格加速上涨，交易持续升温。在短短一个月内，比特币涨幅达45.69%，价格超过6万美元，创下2021年11月以来新高。
l Bitcoin prices have accelerated since this year, and transactions have continued to warm. Within just one month, Bitcoin has increased by 45.69 per cent, with prices exceeding $60,000, reaching a new high since November 2021.
l 业内人士分析，比特币4月份将迎来新一轮的“减半”，成为推动比特币加速上涨的重要诱因。所谓“减半”是指挖矿奖励减半，大约每四年发生一次，具体时间取决于比特币网络的区块生成速度。这将会减少比特币的供应量，预计在2024年4月23日，届时区块奖励将从6.25枚（BTC）降至3.125 枚（BTC）。
l Industry sources have analysed Bitcoin as a new round of “50-per-cent” in April as an important incentive to accelerate the growth of Bitcoin. “50-per-cent” refers to a reduction in mining incentives by half, approximately every four years, depending on the speed of production of the Bitcoin network. This will reduce the supply of Bitcoin, which is expected to fall from 6.25 (BTC) to 3.125 (BTC) by 23 April 2024.
l 这种情况在历史上一直对比特币价格有利，在供给减少的预期下，在4月份的“减半”事件之前，交易者涌入比特币市场，以期在供应减少、价格上涨时获利。但是，今年1月份比特币ETF发行，才是触发行情爆发的关键因素。此前，2024年1月11日，美国证监会正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF申请。
l This situation has historically been favourable to bitcoin prices, with traders rushing into the Bitcoin market before the “half-per-cent” of the April events, with a view to profiting from a reduction in supply and rising prices. However, the release of Bitcoin ETF in January this year was the key factor in triggering the outbreak. Previously, on 11 January 2024, the US CSRC officially approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, including those from Belet.
l 这一决定，将允许海外普通投资者像买卖股票和共同基金一样买卖比特币。此前，加密货币市场上的投资人以“散兵游勇”为主，而这些资管巨头的入场宣告了“正规军”正加速入市，带来更多增量资金。新举措降低了比特币的购买门槛，也吸引更多机构和散户投资者进入市场。
l This decision would allow ordinary investors abroad to buy and sell bitcoins like stock trading and mutual funds. Previously, investors in encrypted money markets had been predominantly “swat-trooped” and the entry of these giants announced that the “regular army” was speeding up the market, leading to more incremental capital.
l 数据显示，2月份流入比特币ETF的资金达到了59亿美元。自1月11日上市成立以来，比特币ETF的资金流入量为74亿美元。
l Data show that in February, the amount of money flowing into ETF in Bitcoin reached $5.9 billion. Since its inception on 11 January, ETF in Bitcoin has received $7.4 billion.
两会今日看点：政协会议开幕 人大会议举行新闻发布会
Two meetings today: the opening of the meeting of the Political Consultative Conference; a press conference of the People's Congress;
l 今日15时，全国政协十四届二次会议将在人民大会堂开幕，2024年全国两会正式开启。此外，今日12时，十四届全国人大二次会议将举行新闻发布会。
l Today, at 1500 hours, the 14th 2nd meeting of the NPCC will be opened in the People's Hall and the 2024 National Conference will be officially opened. In addition, today, at 1200 hours, a press conference will be held at the 2nd meeting of the 14th National People's Congress.
l 3日下午，全国政协十四届二次会议新闻发布会举行。大会新闻发言人刘结一介绍，全国政协十四届二次会议将于3月4日15:00在人民大会堂开幕，3月10日上午闭幕，会期6天。
l In the afternoon of 3 p.m., a press conference will be held at the 14th 2nd meeting of the NCPC. Liu Jingi, press spokesman for the General Assembly, introduced that the 14th 2nd meeting of the NPCC will be opened on 4 March at 15:00 in the People's Hall, closing on the morning of 10 March for a period of 6 days.
l 据介绍，大会主要议程是：听取和审议全国政协常委会工作报告和提案工作情况的报告；列席十四届全国人大二次会议，听取并讨论政府工作报告以及其他有关报告；审议通过全国政协十四届二次会议政治决议、关于常委会工作报告的决议、关于全国政协十四届一次会议以来提案工作情况报告的决议、关于全国政协十四届二次会议提案审查情况的报告。
l The main agenda of the Congress was presented as follows: to hear and consider reports on the work and proposals of the Standing Committee of the National People's Consultative Assembly; to attend the second session of the Fourteenth National People's Congress to hear and discuss reports on the work of the Government and other relevant reports; to consider the adoption of political resolutions of the fourteenth session of the National Political Consultative Council, resolutions on the report on the work of the Standing Committee, resolutions on the status of work on proposals since the fourteenth session of the National Political Consultative Council and reports on the review of proposals made at the fourteenth session of the National Political Consultative Conference.
l 据介绍，大会期间，将安排开幕会、闭幕会以及2次大会发言，委员各驻地分别举行界别联组会和多次委员界别小组会议，部分界别举行1次界别协商会议。开幕会、闭幕会将邀请外国驻华使节旁听。除了新闻发布会外，大会还将举办3场“委员通道”采访活动。
l During the Congress, it was stated that opening and closing sessions would be arranged, as would two statements to the Congress, one meeting to be held in each of the Commission's locations and one meeting to be held in each of the Commission's chambers and one consultation meeting to be held in some of them. The opening and closing meetings would invite foreign ambassadors to attend. In addition to press conferences, the Congress would hold three “Commissioners' Channels” interviews.
l 另据全国政协十四届二次会议新闻中心消息，全国政协十四届二次会议首场“委员通道”集体采访活动定于3月4日14:00在人民大会堂中央大厅北侧举行。
l Also according to the information centre of the 14th CCPAC 2nd Conference, the first group interview of the 14th CCPC 2nd Conference, “Commissioner Channel”, is scheduled to take place on 4 March at 14:00, on the north side of the central hall of the People's Hall.
l 在人大会议方面，今日12时，十四届全国人大二次会议将在人民大会堂新闻发布厅举行新闻发布会，由大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记者提问。
l In the context of the Human Rights Conference, today, at 1200 hours, the second session of the Fourteenth National People's Congress will hold a press conference in the Press Briefing Room in the People's General Assembly Hall to answer questions from outside the press on the agenda of the General Assembly and on issues related to the work of the Assembly.
l 据报道，目前已有3000多名中外记者报名采访全国两会，其中境内记者2000多名，港澳台记者和外国记者1000多名。
l More than 3,000 Chinese and foreign journalists are reported to have signed up to cover both national meetings, including more than 2,000 national journalists, more than 1,000 Hong Kong and Macao journalists and foreign journalists.
2024年的车圈注定不平静 小鹏汽车宣布：降价！
The 2024 ring of the car was bound to be unsettled, and the pelican car announced a price reduction!
l 3月3日，小鹏汽车宣布，2024年3月31日前，小鹏G6全系车型限时立减2万元，优惠后售价为18.99万元起。
l On 3 March, Pelican Cars announced that until 31 March 2024, Pelican G6 had lost its full-system model by $20,000 per hour, with a discounted sale price of $18999.
l 春节过后，一众车企纷纷降价。先是比亚迪率先将旗下两款车型价格下降2万元，最低售价为7.98万元；随后，哪咤汽车、长安启源等新能源汽车品牌，也纷纷降价或者推出限时优惠活动，就连特斯拉也表示“跟”！记者观察到，这些降价的车型多集中在新能源汽车品牌，降价或者变相降价的幅度从几千元到上万元不等。
After the spring festival, a lot of cars fell in prices. First, Biadi took the lead in lowering the price of two models of vehicles under the flag by $20,000, at a minimum price of $798,000; then Tesla also expressed “follow-up” to new energy car brands, such as cars and Chang An Qin Xin, or to launch time-limited activities. As journalists have observed, these reductions are mostly concentrated in new energy car brands, with rates ranging from several thousand dollars to tens of thousands.
l 业内人士分析指出，新能源车企在2024年的增速将进一步承压，因此以头部车企为主导的价格战仍将持续，竞争将非常激烈。与此同时，电池成本的下行也为车企的降价提供了一定的空间。
l Industry analysts suggest that the growth of new energy vehicles will be further pressured in 2024, so that price wars, dominated by head-car companies, will continue, and competition will be intense. At the same time, the downside of battery costs will provide some room for the firms to lower their prices.
l 据悉，小鹏G6是基于扶摇架构的首款车型，其综合研发成本相比过往架构平台车型降低约一半。该系列共有5款配置车型可选，官方指导价格为20.99万元—27.69万元。早在2月4日，小鹏汽车就宣布，即日起购买2023款小鹏G6全系车型，并在2月底之前完成提车的用户，即可享受2万元的现金优惠。
l According to the information received, Pelican G6 is based on the first model of a rocking structure, and its combined R & D costs are about half lower than those of a past architecture platform. There are five packages in this series, with an official guideline price of $209.99 million – $27.69 million. As early as 4 February, Pelican cars announced that they would buy 2023 Pelican G6 full-system models, with a cash discount of $20,000, starting from that date and completing their lifting by the end of February.
l 而此次宣布的限时优惠，是2月份优惠的延续，优惠期限再延长一个月，而且将起售价降到18.99万元，相当可观。值得注意的是，这款车从一车难求到降价促销，相隔仅不到7个月时间。
l The announced time-limited preference is a continuation of the February preference, which was extended for a further month, and reduced the start-up price to $18999, which is quite impressive. It is worth noting that the vehicle was only seven months away from a single vehicle that was difficult to obtain a price reduction.
本日外汇及大宗商品资讯
Information on Foreign Exchange and Commodities for this day
欧元/美元：美元走软，欧元兑美元上涨至1.0850附近
Euro/dollar: the United States dollar is soft and the euro rises to the United States dollar near 1.0850
l 周一亚洲早盘，欧元兑美元在1.0845附近走强。
l Monday morning in Asia, the euro is strong against the United States dollar in the vicinity of 1.0845.
l 几位联准会官员表示，降息时机将取决于即将公布的经济数据。
l Several Associated Council officials indicated that the timing of interest reduction would depend on the forthcoming publication of economic data.
l 欧洲央行预计在周四举行的 3 月会议上按兵不动。
∙ The ECB is expected to hold a stand-off at the March meeting on Thursday.
l 周一亚洲早盘时段，欧元兑美元以积极的态势开启了新的一周。主要货币对的上扬受到美元走软的支撑。投资者将密切关注 欧洲央行（ECB）周四的货币政策会议，预计利率不会改变。截至记者发稿时，欧元兑美元报1.0845，当日上涨0.07%。
l On Monday, in the early hours of Asia, the euro opened a new week on a positive note against the dollar. The rise in major currencies was underpinned by the weakening of the dollar. Investors will pay close attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with interest rates not expected to change. At the time of press release, the euro had reported 1.0845 against the dollar, an increase of 0.07 per cent that day.
l 多位联准会（Fed）决策者表示，降息时机将取决于即将公布的经济数据。波士顿联邦储备银行主席苏珊-柯林斯（Susan Collins）和纽约联邦储备银行主席约翰-威廉斯（John Williams）表示，首次降息可能会在今年晚些时候，而亚特兰大联邦储备银行主席拉斐尔-博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）则表示，他预计今年夏天将采取宽松政策。
l According to several Fed policymakers, the timing of interest reduction will depend on the forthcoming publication of economic data. Susan Collins, President of Boston’s Federal Reserve Bank, and John Williams, President of New York’s Federal Reserve Bank, said that the first interest reduction might be later this year, while Rafael Bostic, President of Atlanta’s Federal Reserve Bank, said that he expected to adopt a liberal policy this summer.
l 美国供应管理协会（ISM）的数据显示，2月美国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从前值49.1降至47.8，低于市场共识。新订单指数降至收缩区间，为 49.2，生产指数为 48.4，就业指数为 45.9。
l Data from the American Supply Management Association (USSMM) show that the US Manufacturing Procurement Managers Index (PMI) dropped from its previous value of 49.1 to 47.8 in February, below the market consensus. The new order index fell to a contraction between 49.2, the production index of 48.4 and the employment index of 45.9.
l 欧洲央行希望在考虑货币政策立场之前看到更多有关薪资压力缓解的数据。欧洲央行很可能在 3 月的会议上维持利率不变。投资者将从新闻发布会上获得更多有关政策 前景的线索。央行的鹰派言论可能会提振欧元（EUR），并对欧元/美元货币对构成利空。
l The ECB would like to see more data on the easing of salary pressures before considering monetary policy positions. The ECB is likely to maintain interest rates at its March meeting.
l 接下来，欧元区服务业采购经理人指数将于周二公布。德国贸易数据和欧元区零售销售数据将于周三公布。强于预期的数据可能会减轻人们对欧元区衰退的担忧。欧洲央行 利率决议将在周四成为焦点，在此之前将公布备受瞩目的美国 非农就业数据（NFP）。
More than expected data could allay concerns about the eurozone’s recession. The ECB’s interest rate resolution will focus on Thursday, with high-profile US non-agricultural employment data (NFP) posted before.
贵金属：黄金/美元维持在9周高点2,100美元关口下方，关注中国服务业PMI
l 周一亚洲时段早盘，金价在 2,085.55 美元附近保持积极走势。
l On Monday, early in Asia, the gold price remained positive in the vicinity of US$ 2,085.55.
l 美国2月ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）低于预期，从1月的49.1降至47.8。
l The ISM manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was lower than expected in the United States in February, falling from 49.1 to 47.8 in January.
l 联准会官员博斯蒂克表示，如果经济如他预期的那样发展，央行将在夏季降息。
l The Associated Council official Bostick stated that if the economy developed as he expected, the central bank would cut interest rates in the summer.
l 周一亚洲早盘时段，金价（黄金兑美元）升至2100美元关卡下方的九周高点。周五美国经济数据不乐观，引发了市场对今年稍后降息的猜测。此外，美国公债殖利率下降也推动了投资者对黄金需求的上升。截至记者发稿时，金价报 2085.55 美元，全天持平。
l On Monday, early in Asia, the gold price (gold against the United States dollar) rose to a high of nine weeks below the $2,100 threshold. On Friday, the US economy was not optimistic, prompting speculation in the market about the fall in interest rates later this year. Moreover, the fall in US public-debt interest rates contributed to the rise in investors’ demand for gold. At the time of press release, the gold price stood at $2085.55, which was flat all day.
l 美国供应管理协会（ISM）周五公布的数据显示，2月美国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从前值49.1降至47.8。该数据已是连续第16个月低于50，显示制造业萎缩。
l U.S. Supply Management Association (USSMM) data released on Friday show that the US Manufacturing Procurement Manager Index (PMI) dropped from 49.1 to 47.8 in February. This figure is below 50 for the 16th consecutive month, showing a contraction in manufacturing.
l 联准会（Fed）在 1 月的会议上将政策利率稳定在 5.25-5.50% 的区间。亚特兰大联邦储备银行主席拉斐尔-博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）表示，他将关注长期趋势，并重申了他的观点，如果经济发展如他所料，他认为美国央行将在夏季降息。这可能会提高黄金的吸引力，提高黄金价格。
l The Fed, at its January meeting, stabilized the policy interest rate at 5.25 to 5.50%. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, said that he would focus on long-term trends and reiterated his view that, if economic development were as he expected, the US Central Bank would lower interest rates in the summer.
l 上个月，中国制造业对经济健康状况发出了好坏参半的讯号。投资者将从周二公布的 2 月中国财新服务业采购经理人指数中获得更多资讯。此外，围绕中国政府刺激措施的进展也会为金价提供一些支撑。
l Last month, Chinese manufacturing sent a mixed signal about the state of economic health. Investors will get more information from the February index of China’s finance and new services procurement managers.
l 黄金交易商将密切关注周二的中国 2 月财新服务业采购经理人指数和美国 ISM 服务业采购经理人指数。联准会主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三的证词可能会对经济和货币政策的总体概况提供一些暗示。周五，美国 非农就业数据（NFP）将成为焦点。
l Gold traders will pay close attention to China’s February Financial and New Services Purchasing Manager Index and the US ISM Service Purchasing Manager Index. The testimony of Associate Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday may give some hints about the overall economic and monetary policy profile.
原油：沙特宣布将自愿减产100万桶石油措施延至6月底
Crude oil: Saudi Arabia has announced a voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels of oil until the end of June
l 沙特阿拉伯通讯社3月3日援引沙特能源部消息来源报道，沙特自2023年7月开始实施的日均100万桶的自愿减产措施将延长至今年6月底。
l On 3 March, the Saudi Arabian News Agency quoted Saudi Ministry of Energy sources for reporting that the voluntary reduction of production of an average of 1 million barrels per day, which had been implemented in Saudi Arabia since July 2023, would be extended until the end of June this year.
l 报道说，该减产措施延长后，沙特石油日产量将在900万桶左右。之后这些额外减产措施将根据市场状况逐渐调整。
l It was reported that Saudi oil production would be around 9 million barrels per day after the extension of the cut-off measure, and that these additional cut-off measures would be gradually adjusted in line with market conditions.
l 报道说，该自愿减产措施是在沙特2023年4月宣布的自愿减产措施基础上额外增加的减产，目的是为了支持欧佩克成员国与非欧佩克产油国组成的“欧佩克+”国家为维护国际石油市场的稳定与平衡所做的“预防性努力”。
l It was reported that the voluntary reduction measure was an additional reduction based on the voluntary reduction announced by Saudi Arabia in April 2023 and was intended to support the “preventive efforts” of OPEC+ countries, made up of OPEC members and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, to maintain stability and balance in the international oil market.
l 沙特2023年4月宣布自当年5月起日均减产石油50万桶。2023年6月4日，沙特在“欧佩克+”第35次部长级会议后宣布，7月沙特将日均额外减产100万桶，为期一个月。之后沙特将这一额外减产措施数次延期至今年3月底。
On 4 June 2023, after the 35th OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the Kingdom announced that it would reduce its production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July for a period of one month. The Kingdom has since extended this additional reduction several times until the end of March.
文章来源：Goldhorse Capital Extramile
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