以史为鉴，比特币本轮牛市还在么？

牛熊之争在比特币五月大跌一半以上后就开始了，519以后整个加密市场经历了政策严管，资金外逃，法币之争等事件，如今的币圈依旧疲软，有分析说这是牛熊的中继，快跑，熊来了。但是也有人坚信，这只是牛市的重大回调，下半场牛市会更加疯狂。今天，我们来一起谈谈，本轮加密货币牛市的情况以及牛市是否还在的问题。

Cow bear struggles began after more than half of Bitcoin's fall in May, and the entire encryption market has gone through policies since 519, financial flight, competition over French currency, etc. The currency circle is still weak today, and analysis suggests that this is the back-up of the Cow Bear, running fast. But some believe that this is just a big backlash for the Cow City, the next half of which is

加密货币的牛市与龙头币也就是比特币直接相关，本轮牛市无可争议的地方就是全球银行货币政策大放水之下的机构牛。

牛市和熊市的指标参考

Indicator reference for cattle and bear cities

1.BTC前高

1. BTC Top High

2017年的比特币牛市中，比特币的顶点是2万美金附近，如果按照比特币之前 4 年一周期的大周期论而言，突破上一轮前高点，正是牛市开始的标志。

In 2017, in Bitcoin, the peak of Bitcoin was around $20,000, and if, according to the broad cyclical theory of the four-year cycle before Bitcoin, it was the mark of the start of the bull market that went beyond the previous round.

如果单纯以比特币市场单价作为参考的话，我们可以发现：

If we refer solely to the bitcoin market unit price, we can find that:

比特币在一轮牛市中，会突破前一次的新高2-3倍后，整理一段时间再继续冲击新的顶部，并且这个2-3倍的区间会成为下一次熊市的最低点！

In a round of cattle, Bitcoin will break two to three times the previous height and continue to hit the top for a period of time, and this two to three times the next time Bear City!

比如2017年的牛市中，比特币突破1200美元的前高（2015年小牛），1200的2-3倍的区域是2400-3600美元，在经历市场回调之后，比特币又上涨了6倍左右，其顶点达到2万美元附近，并且在之后熊市最低点也是3000美金附近！

For example, in 2017, in the cattle market, Bitcoin broke past $1,200, two to three times as high (in 2015 calf), and the area of 1200 was $2,400 to 3600. After a market turnback, Bitcoin rose by about six times, reaching a peak of around $20,000, and then the lowest point in Bear City was around $3,000!

在519之前，比特币的市场价是54k-60k，正好位于是前高20k的2-3倍的区间，如果可以参考历史数据的话，再上涨6倍就是30万美元附近，在牛市结束的下一轮熊市最低点也应该在54k附近，83%的跌幅，与历史跌幅吻合。

Prior to 519, Bitcoin had a market price of 54k-60k, which was just two to three times higher than the previous 20k. If historical data were available, the sixfold increase would be around $300,000, and the next round of bears ending in the cattle market should be near 54k, with 83 per cent of the drop, which corresponds to the historical drop.

综上，如果参考2017年那轮牛市的价格区间，那么 6 万美金的比特币，就不会是顶点。这也是为什么多数机构或是大佬，保守的本轮牛市 BTC 看到 8-10 万美金，激进地看到 15-20 万美金甚至更高。但是本轮牛市会不会按照以往的数据指标继续，或者说6万美金是不是已经到顶了呢？这很难说，时间和市场将会揭晓一切答案。

In summary, if we look at the price range in 2017 for the Bull City, then $60,000 in bitcoins will not be the top point. That is why most institutions, or big people, the conservative BTC, see $8-100,000, and radically, $150,000-20 million, or even higher. But will the Bull City continue according to previous data indicators, or will the $60,000 have reached its peak? It is hard to say that time and the market will reveal all the answers.

2.BTC市场占比

2. BTC market share

比特币的市场占比是第二个重要参考指标，根据以往的经验来看，在熊市中，比特币作为相对其他山寨币的保值率，市场占比会达到80%以上的水平，在牛市中，比特币的市场占比会越来越低，直到某个临界点，牛市宣告结束，比特币市值在重新增加，周而复始。

The market share of Bitcoin is the second important reference indicator, and, based on past experience, in the bear market, the market share of Bitcoin will reach a level of over 80 per cent as a preservation rate vis-à-vis the rest of the mountain, and in the cow market, the market share of Bitcoin will become increasingly low until a critical point, when the bull market is declared to be closed, and the market value of Bitco is growing again and again.

历史上每次牛市的顶点，都以比特币市场占比达到一个低点为结束。

The peak of every cattle market in history ends with a low point in the Bitcoin market.

2018 年 1 月 13 日的牛市顶点，BTC 占比是 32.45%。目前 BTC 的占比是44%左右。从这个指标来看，我们似乎也还处于一个相对安全的牛中阶段。

The ratio of BTC to the peak of the cattle market on January 13, 2018 is 32.45%. The current ratio of BTC is around 44%. From this indicator, we also seem to be in a relatively safe middle of cattle.

不过需要注意的是，在上一轮牛市，BTC 在接近 2 万美金时达到了66%的市值占比，然后仅仅一个月在各路山寨疯狂跌倒了32.45%，宣告牛市结束。

It should be noted, however, that in the last round of cattle, the BTC reached a market value ratio of 66 per cent when it approached US$ 20,000, and then fell by 32.45 per cent in a single month in the mountains, declaring the bull market closed.

3.山寨币的发行与市值

3. Promulgation and market value of bounties

以史为鉴来看，在以往的比特币牛市中后期有几个显著特征：

History suggests that there are a number of salient features in the late and mid-term of the former Bitcoin Cattle:

1、许多山寨币涨的完全没有道理，没有消息面更没有基本面，但是却经常几倍几十倍的涨，比如在2017年牛市中的某只山寨币，这个山寨币曾经在一周拉上百倍，拉盘拉到你服气或者忍不住上车为止。但是最后割韭菜也是毫不留情，详细请参考币圈某位大佬，绰号“孙割”。

1. There is no justification for the rise of many bounties, much less the basics, but it often rises several dozen times, for example, in 2017, when a bounties in the cattle market, which used to pull hundreds of times in a week, dragged you up or couldn’t resist getting into the car. But the final cut of the cucumbers is also unremitting, and please refer to a big guy in the currency ring, known as “Sunche”.

2、许多山寨估值夸张，有点技术或者名人站台的明星山寨的估值更夸张，动辄几亿几十亿美金市值，却没有多少用户，动不动就喊着打倒BTC或者ETH之类的币种层出不穷，看哪个都觉得贵，都不敢买。

2. Many titanium values are exaggerated, some technical or celebrity-based star-field values are exaggerated, amounting to billions of dollars in market value, but not many users, calling out to knock down currencies such as BTC or ETH, either expensive or expensive.

3、新项目层出不穷，让你感到眼花缭乱应接不暇，本轮牛市中异军突起的动物系币种就是典型，这类币种特点就是价低，上涨快，但是大部分没有生态，技术和应用，纯粹是炒作。浪潮退去，牛市不在的时候，这类币种归零的可能性很大。

Three, the new projects have gone on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. There is a great chance that this kind of currency will be zero in the absence of the bull market.

在519以前的山寨可以看出已经进入“无理取闹”的阶段，有没有基本面和数据支撑已然不再重要，每天都有新项目在各个微信群和电报群 CX，一上线市值就是上亿美金起，此起彼伏的市价增加。让人有一种牛市末期的感觉。

Before 519, it became clear that the stage of “unjustified” was under way, that it was no longer important to have basics and data to support it, that there were new projects on a daily basis in the CX of the micro-letters and telegrams, and that the first-line market was worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and that the price of each other's markets had increased. There was a sense of the end of the cattle market.

近期热度很高的柴犬币，俗称“屎币”

It's very hot in the recent days. It's commonly known as "shit money."

4.BTC在交易所的体量

4. BTC size on exchange

牛市末期有一个显著特征：那就是很多的比特币涌入交易平台，开始套现，正是因为这帮人套现了，价格跌了，牛市才结束，熊市才会来。

One of the salient features of the end of the cow market is that a lot of bitcoins are pouring into trading platforms and starting to set up, because the price falls and the cow market ends and the bear market comes.

如果单纯从这个指标来看的话，牛市感觉还有好久，甚至可以说，还没正式启动，因为现在比特币是在从交易平台往外流的，交易平台里面的比特币最近这一年是越来越少。机构逢低抢筹，不断加仓的新闻最近频频报道。

If we look at this indicator alone, the bull market feels that it is still a long, if not a formal, start-up, because bitcoin is now flowing out of trading platforms, and bitcoin in trading platforms has become less and less available in recent years. Agencies have been working at a low level of effort, and news has been on the air lately.

要是以这个指标为准，感觉说我们现在还处于牛市初期都不过分。

If that indicator were to be used, it would not be excessive to say that we are still in the early stages of the cattle market.

5.BTC和ETH的波动性

5. Volatility of BTC and ETH

2017年比特币牛市总共7次大回调(单位:人民币)

In 2017, there were seven large returns in the city of Bitcoin (in yuan)

第一次:3350--1851，跌幅44.7%，历时7天

First: 3350-1851, down 44.7 per cent, seven days.

第二次:5180--3151，跌幅39.2%，历时47天

Second: 5180-3151, 39.2 per cent drop, 47 days

第三次:8888--4885，跌幅45%，历时7天

Third: 8888-4885, 45 per cent drop, 7 days

第四次:19200--12301，跌幅35.9%，历时2天

Fourth: 19200-12301, with a 35.9 per cent drop, for two days

第五次:21200--12900，跌幅39.2%，历时34天

Fifth: 21200-1290, 39.2 per cent drop, 34 days

第六次:32668--19437，跌幅40.5%，历时13天

Sixth: 32668-19437, 40.5 per cent drop, 13 days

第七次:47936--34613，跌幅38%，历时4天

Seventh: 47936-34613, 38 per cent drop, 4 days

对比之下一下，本轮牛市的回调在519之前已经显得很温和了(单位:美元)

By contrast, the roulette's return was mild before 519 (in United States dollars)

第一次:12051--9834，跌幅18.4%，历时3天

First: 12051-9834, down 18.4 per cent, three days.

第二次:19485--16199，跌幅16.9%，历时2天

Second: 19485-16199 with a decline of 16.9 per cent and two days

第三次:34762--27777，跌幅20.1%，历时1天

Third: 34762-27777, 20.1 per cent drop, 1 day

第四次:41900--28800，跌幅31.3%，历时14天

Fourth: 41900-28800, 31.3 per cent drop, 14 days

第五次:58326--44918，跌幅23%，历时2天

Fifth: 58326-44918, 23 per cent drop, 2 days

第六次:61800--51500，跌幅20%，历时12天

Sixth: 61,800-51,500, 20 per cent drop, 12 days

第七次：59500--30000，跌幅近50%，从5.12至今尚未反弹回高点

Seventh: 595-30,000, nearly 50 per cent drop, not rebounding from 5.12 to the present.

2021年减半大牛市开始后，按2013，,2017年规律，涨起来应该有多次40%回调，实际只有多次20%回调，最多回调仅30%。在从1万美金几乎无回调，疯涨到$6.5万后，又出现了一次519（高杠杆连环爆仓） & 521（政策打击）导致的54%跌幅（$**843到$30066），相当于94（政策打击）+312（高杠杆连环爆仓）的叠加。

Halve by 2021 . Under the 2013-2017 pattern, there should have been multiple 40% returns, with only 20% returns, and only 30%. After almost no return from $10,000 to $65,000, there was another 519 (high-leared-cture) & 521 (policy strike) drop ($**8443 to $30066), which is equivalent to 94 (high-le-clash) +312 (high-cry) collapse)

如果历史数据可以在本轮重演，那么本轮牛市就可继续，反之，将进入熊市，直到下一次比特币减半开启新一轮牛市。

If historical data could be repeated in the current round, the city would continue and, conversely, would enter the bear market until the next half of Bitcoin would open a new round of cattle.