比特币价格又跳水。
The price of
bitcoin jumped again.
北京时间1月3日晚间，比特币价格一度跌破41000美元，最大跌幅超过10%，为2023年12月18日以来新低。数据显示，1个小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓4.92亿美元。截至2024年1月4日17点20分，比特币价格短线止跌回升，暂报42885.5美元。
In the evening of 3 January Beijing time, Bitcoin prices fell by $41,000, with a maximum drop of more than 10 per cent, to a new low of
消息面上，有美国机构称美国证监会（SEC）将再次否决机构关于比特币现货ETF的申请。受访专家表示，比特币价格的剧烈波动往往是多方面因素共同作用的结果。从消息面上看，美国比特币现货ETF或将再度被否决，影响了市场对于比特币未来上涨预期的市场情绪，致使一部分人开始抛售。此外，数字资产市场的波动性在很大程度上受到金融衍生品和杠杆交易的影响。在宏观经济层面，全球经济环境的不确定性以及其他金融市场的波动也可能间接影响比特币的价格。
According to the experts interviewed, the sharp fluctuations in bitcoin prices are often the result of a combination of multiple factors. According to the news, the re-rejection of bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States has affected the market’s expectations of future increases in bitcoin, which has led some people to start selling out.
比特币再次上演跳水行情
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Bitcoin is back on the jump.
1月3日20时起，比特币价格迅速走低，在失守45000美元关键点位后，接连跌破44000美元、43000美元、42000美元整数关口，一度跌破41000美元，最大跌幅超过10%，为2023年12月18日以来新低。
At 2000 hours on 3 January, after losing $45,000 in key points, the price of `strong' bitcoin quickly fell back to $44,000, $43,000 and $42,000 in full. At one point it fell to $41,000, with the largest drop of more than 10 per cent
Coinglass数据显示，1个小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆仓4.92亿美元，其中多单爆仓4.68亿美元。24小时内，加密货币市场累计爆仓金额超过6亿美元，爆仓人数接近17.6万人。
Coinglass data show that, within an hour, $492 million of the secure money market's full-network contracts exploded, with more than $468 million. Over a 24-hour period, the aggregate value of the encrypted money market went up to over $600 million, and the number was close to 176,000.
事实上，比特币价格跳水已成常态。2023年12月11日11时，比特币价格就曾突然跳水，接连跌破44000美元和43000美元两道整数关口，短短15分钟内，一度下跌超2000美元，日内最低下探至40413美元。
In fact, the price of Bitcoin has become normal. At 11 a.m. on 11 December 2023, the price of Bitcoin suddenly jumped, collapsing into two full doors of $44,000 and $43,000. In just 15 minutes, it fell over $2,000, the lowest detection in the day was $40413.
据Coinglass数据统计，截至2023年12月11日11时，24小时全网爆仓人数一度超过11万人，爆仓总金额高达3.86亿美元。因比特币价格大跌，虚拟货币市场遭遇血洗，多个主流虚拟货币价格大幅下挫。截至2023年12月11日11时30分，以太坊、莱特币均跌逾4%，瑞波币跌逾6%，比特币现金跌逾8%。
According to Coinglass data, at 1100 hours on 11 December 2023, the 24-hour full-network explosion reached more than 110,000 people and a total of $386 million. As a result of the sharp fall in bitcoin prices, the virtual currency market was bloodwashed, and several mainstream virtual currency prices fell sharply. As at 11.30 p.m. on 11 December 2023, there was a fall of more than 4 per cent in Etheria, Leitco, over 6 per cent in Ripauco and over 8 per cent in Bitcoin.
记者梳理发现，仅去年一年比特币价格就多次跳水。除了12月11日突发跳水行情，11月17日，比特币日内跌幅达5.0%，报35535美元；8月18日，比特币短线一度跌超3000美元，日内最大跌幅超13%，一度跌穿2.5万美元关口；6月5日，比特币短线下挫超1000美元，跌破26000美元关口，跌幅一度扩大至5%以上。
The journalist combed and found that the price of Bitcoin had jumped several times last year alone. In addition to the sudden dive on 11 December, on 17 November, Bitcoin fell by 5.0% and reported $35,535; on 18 August, the Bitcoin shortline fell by over $3,000, with the largest fall by over 13%, and at least $25,000; and on 5 June, the Bitcoin short line fell by over $1,000, breaking by $26,000, and by over 5 per cent.
而更早前的2022年6月18日下午，比特币一度跌破19000美元/枚，刷新2020年12月以来新低。截至当天晚上9点，比特币价格约为19171美元，24小时跌幅达7.41%，过去7天累计跌幅达33%。
Earlier, on the afternoon of 18 June 2022, Bitcoin fell by $19,000, refreshing the decline since December 2020. By 9 p.m., the price of Bitcoin was approximately $19171, with a 24-hour drop of 7.41 per cent and a cumulative decline of 33 per cent over the past seven days.
现货ETF申请将再次被否决？
The spot ETF application will be rejected again?
此次比特币价格为何突然暴跌？消息面上，金融服务公司Matrixport预计，SEC会在1月拒绝所有比特币现货ETF提案，并表示在SEC拒绝ETF的提案后，比特币价格会跌到36000-38000美元。去年以来，贝莱德、景顺、富达等多家金融机构纷纷提交比特币现货ETF申请。据不完全统计，目前13家申请机构已经和SEC进行了24次会议，讨论比特币现货ETF的相关细节。
According to the news, the financial services company Matrixport expects the SEC to reject all of the Bitcoin spot ETF proposals in January and to say that the price will fall to $36,000-$38,000 after SEC rejects the ETF proposal. Since last year, several financial institutions, including Belede, Gyeong-soon, and Fuda, have submitted bid applications for the Bitcoin spot ETF.
密码学博士高承实对记者表示，比特币价格突然跳水的最主要原因，是有传闻说比特币现货ETF将不会被批准。加之当前全球投资者普遍信心不足，部分投资者和矿工因获利了结，出现了比特币价格的回调。而美联储降息预期，一是尚未被验证，二是其影响强度还比较弱。
Dr. Cryptology stated to reporters that the most important reason for the sudden jump in the price of ‘strong’ bitcoin was the rumour that Bitcoin’s spot ETF would not be approved.
加密币市场资深分析人士告诉记者，最直接的因素就是Matrixport发布报告称，美国SEC将在1月拒绝所有比特币现货ETF申请，这与市场此前的普遍预期存在巨大差异，因而使加密市场出现恐慌性下跌。
Senior analysts of the encrypt currency market told journalists that the most immediate factor was Matirxport's release of a report that the United States SEC would reject all Bitcoin spot ETF applications in January, which was significantly different from the market's pre-existing expectations, thus causing panic in the encrypting market.
美国比特币现货ETF发行申请为何难以获批？中国移动通信联合会元宇宙产业委员会执行主任于佳宁在接受记者采访时指出，SEC是否会再次否决比特币现货ETF的申请，这取决于申请中所提供的市场监管机制是否能够符合SEC的要求，SEC拒绝比特币现货ETF的原因在于其不符合旨在防止欺诈和操纵行为、保护投资者和公共利益的交易所标准。
In an interview with a journalist, the Executive Director of the China Mobile Communications Federation's Won Cosmos Committee stated whether the SEC would again reject the Bitcoin spot ETF application, depending on whether the market regulatory mechanism provided in the application met the requirements of the SEC, which rejected the Bitcoin spot ETF because it did not meet exchange standards aimed at preventing fraud and manipulation and protecting investors and the public interest.
加密币市场资深分析人士表示，SEC迟迟未通过比特币现货ETF申请主要是担忧比特币价格波动剧烈，且交易信息缺乏透明度，可能存在市场操纵行为，在投资者保护方面难以满足现有的监管要求。同时，也对比特币现有ETF推出后缺乏足够市场流动性存在担心。
Senior analysts of the encrypt currency market suggest that SEC’s delay in passing the Bitcoin spot ETF application is mainly concerned about the volatility of the Bitcoin price, the lack of transparency of the transaction information, possible market manipulation, and the difficulty of meeting existing regulatory requirements in terms of investor protection. At the same time, there is concern over the lack of sufficient market liquidity since the introduction of the current ETF.
高承实认为，美国比特币现货ETF发行难，主要有政策层面和技术层面因素。在政策层面，一旦批准比特币现货ETF，在某种程度上就意味着这将使比特币合法化，也意味着比特币作为储值替代品的合法化；二是比特币剧烈的价格波动，将使得比特币现货ETF的价格波动更加剧烈，而这将难以做好相应的投资者保护。从技术层面看，一是对比特币这种去中心化的虚拟数字货币和相关交易，目前还缺乏有效的监管手段；二是相应的投资者保护措施目前还缺位；三是比特币现货ETF发行难产，也与美国具体的政策安排有关。
At the policy level, when approved, it means, to some extent, that it will legalize bitcoin and that bitcoin as a reserve alternative; second, the sharp price fluctuations of bitcoin, which will make bitcoin spot ETF price volatility even more volatile, will make it difficult to protect investors accordingly. At the technical level, decentralised virtual digital money and related transactions such as bitcoin, which currently lacks effective regulatory tools; second, the corresponding investor protection measures are currently absent; and third, the price volatility of bitcoin spot ETF, which is also linked to specific United States policy arrangements.
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