半月涨逾25%，一天内跌近20%——比特币暴涨暴跌风险重重
Six months up by more than 25 percent, falling by almost 20 percent a day -- the risk of bitcoin going up and down.
截至2月7日，一枚比特币的价格报3.9万美元，这是继1月8日首次突破4万美元关口后，又重新回到高点。相较于年初的不到3万美元，涨幅逾25%。
As at 7 February, a bitcoin price had been reported at $39,000, which was a return to the high point following the first breakthrough of $40,000 on 8 January, compared with less than $30,000 at the beginning of the year, an increase of more than 25 per cent.
有暴涨就有暴跌，是比特币的一贯表现。就在今年1月11日，比特币从近4万美元跌至3万美元，一天之内狂跌近20%，逾20万人爆仓，涉及金额近140亿元，币圈“哀嚎一片”。
This year, on 11 January, Bitcoin fell from nearly $40,000 to 30,000 dollars, fell by nearly 20 per cent in a single day, and more than 200,000 people burst into storage, amounting to nearly 14 billion won, and the currency circle “Waring”.
暴涨暴跌之下，有人疯狂加码，寄希望于“搏一搏”实现财富自由，也有人直言不讳，认为比特币是一场“巨型泡沫”，币圈人是名副其实的“赌徒”。那么，比特币行情为何如此波动？未来走势怎样？此时入局可能面临哪些风险？
So why is Bitcoin so volatile? What is the future? What are the risks at this point in time?
暴涨暴跌是常态
It's normal to go up and down.
“比特币是一种高风险类资产，价格波动非常大，暴涨和暴跌并不是偶然，而是常态。”知名数字资产交易平台OKEx研究院首席研究员李威廉对记者表示。
“Bitcoin is a high-risk class asset with very high price volatility, and surges and falls are not accidental, but normal.” William Lee, Chief Researcher, OKEx Institute, a well-known digital asset trading platform, said to journalists.
回顾比特币的过往行情，用“过山车”来形容十分贴切。据统计，在刚刚过去的一年里，比特币月均涨跌幅超过10%的一共有8个月。在更早的2017年12月，比特币创下19783美元纪录，随后价格一路下跌，一度快跌破3000美元，一年内大跌80%。
In December 2017, Bitcoin recorded a record of US$283 earlier, and then fell all the way down, with a one-time drop of US$3,000 and an 80-per-cent drop in a year.
自去年10月以来，比特币在海外部分机构投资者的追捧下迎来牛市，从1万美元涨到最高4万美元。这个过程中，越来越多中小投资者开始尾随入场，并采用贷款、衍生品交易的形式加杠杆炒币，尤其在去年12月下旬比特币价格突破2万美元后，这种现象愈演愈烈。
Since last October, Bitcoin has risen from $10,000 to a maximum of $40,000 under the patronage of some overseas institutional investors. In the process, a growing number of small and medium-sized investors have begun to follow in the process and have leveraged coins in the form of loans, derivatives, especially after the 20,000 dollars in Bitcoin prices broke out in late December.
“从历史经验来看，一个泡沫周期可以分为孕育、繁荣、亢奋、困境、衰退五个阶段，近期市场的暴跌，以及随后的反弹，只不过是在泡沫周期中困境阶段的典型表现之一。”李威廉表示。
“From historical experience, a bubble cycle can be divided into five stages of fertility, prosperity, exuberance, distress, recession, the recent collapse of the market and the subsequent rebound is but one of the typical manifestations of the difficult phase of the bubble cycle.” William Lee said.
避险情绪的上升也成为推动本轮比特币牛市的重要原因。自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，全球经济低迷，全球主要央行实行宽松货币政策，推高了市场通胀预期。为了规避名义本金的受损，以及追求更高收益，投资者囤积现金的需求自然演变成对黄金和比特币的需求。
Since the outbreak of the neo-crowd pneumonia, the global economy has been depressed, the monetary policy of the world’s major central banks has pushed up market inflation expectations. To avoid the loss of nominal capital, and to pursue higher returns, investors’ demand for cash hoarding has naturally evolved into demand for gold and bitcoin.
但目前情况发生了变化。李威廉表示，随着疫苗在各国上市，将推动全球经济复苏。在经济恢复预期和高通胀预期的双重压力下，市场猜测全球主要央行将逐步退出现有的宽松政策。特别是近日公布的2020年12月美联储会议纪要中，首次出现缩减购债规模的讨论，这强化了市场对未来货币政策的分歧。“所以我们看到了最近几天比特币的暴涨暴跌。”李威廉说。
Under the double pressure of economic recovery expectations and high inflation expectations, markets suspect that the world’s major central banks will gradually exit from existing easing policies. Especially in the recent December 2020 Federal Reserve minutes, there was the first discussion of reducing the size of the purchase debt, which reinforced the market’s disagreement about future monetary policy.
未来或将陷入萧条
The future or a depression.
尽管比特币的疯涨使得一些投资者趋之若鹜，但同时也引发越来越多的泡沫警告。
While the surge in Bitcoin has made some investors more aggressive, it has also generated increasing foam warnings.
不同于股票或债券，比特币没有实际价值支撑，也缺乏主权信用和商业信用，不会产生任何可预期的现金流，其价格受供需关系主导明显，呈现出大幅度波动。因此，业内人士认为，这其中必然存在大量的泡沫。
Unlike equities or bonds, bitcoin is not supported by real value, nor does it have sovereign and commercial credit. It does not generate any predictable cash flows, and its prices are dominated by supply and demand, with significant fluctuations.
Convoy Investments LLC联合创始人Howard Wang在近日的报告中表示，比特币正处在泡沫中，其当前的增长率是难以为继的，它的存在很大程度上是一种投机资产。
Howard Wang, co-founder of Convoy Investments LLC, in a recent report, stated that Bitcoin was in a bubble, that its current growth rate was unsustainable and that its existence was largely a speculative asset.
美国银行证券公司首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett公开表示，最近比特币价格的飙升可能是另一个投机狂热的案例，比特币看起来像“一切泡沫之母”。
Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist of the Bank of America Securities Corporation, has publicly stated that the recent surge in bitcoin prices may be another case of speculation, and that bitcoin looks like the “mother of all bubbles”.
对于比特币未来的走势，市场分歧也较大。其中不乏叫好者，有人预测，比特币将在未来两年内达到现在价格的10倍以上。
Market differences are also greater with respect to the future direction of Bitcoin. Among them are those who call it good, some predict that Bitcoin will reach more than 10 times the current price in the next two years.
但更多的则是担忧。先锋领航投资策略及研究部亚太区首席经济学家王黔认为，比特币的供给是有限的，供给量不能随着经济活动的增长而扩大，这意味着比特币虽然可以避免通货膨胀，但必然会带来通货紧缩。因此，比特币难以成为合法的支付方式，也难以在全球范围内得到更广泛的应用。
According to Wang Wang, the chief economist for Asia and the Pacific in the Pioneer Leadership Investment Strategy and Research Department, the supply of bitcoins is limited and cannot expand as economic activity increases, meaning that bitcoins, while avoiding inflation, will inevitably lead to deflation. As a result, Bitcoins cannot be a legitimate payment method, nor can they be used more widely on a global scale.
古根海姆投资公司首席投资官Scott Minerd不久前在社交账户上发文表示，“比特币的抛物线式上涨在短期内是不可持续的”“是时候把一些钱拿出来了”。
Scott Mind, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investment, recently wrote on social accounts that “the parabolic rise in Bitcoin is unsustainable in the short term” and that “it is time to take out some money”.
“在当前高通胀、低增长的经济环境下，海外机构投资者大举入场。但机构投资者在乎的是资产的保值和增值，而非‘比特币信仰’或‘区块链革命’这类情怀。”李威廉说，从中长期看，疫情得到逐渐缓解后，随着经济的逐步复苏，全球货币政策也将由宽松转为适度紧缩。届时，机构投资者很可能会抛售比特币，比特币市场将陷入萧条。
“In the current high-inflation, low-growth economic environment, overseas institutional investors are on the rise. But institutional investors are interested in the preservation and value added of assets, not in the sense of a ‘bitcoin faith’ or a ‘block chain revolution’.” William Lee said that, in the medium and long term, the epidemic has eased and, as the economy recovers, global monetary policy will shift from easing to moderate austerity.
参与要做好破产准备
You have to be prepared for bankruptcy.
一边是比特币价格一路狂飙，另一边是虚拟货币交易所跑路、交易平台频繁宕机、诈骗勒索等一系列负面消息不断传出，潜藏在虚拟货币火爆市场背后的风险逐渐暴露。
On the one hand, the price of bitcoin is soaring, and on the other, a series of negative news reports, such as the virtual currency exchange running, frequent trading platforms, fraud and extortion, continue to spread, and the risk of hidden behind the virtual currency boom market is becoming increasingly apparent.
部分交易平台存在恶意宕机操控市场的行为。比如，1月11日，全球最大的虚拟资产交易平台之一——Coinbase出现持续4个多小时的宕机，期间用户无法正常完成交易和提现。有市场人士怀疑，Coinbase可能存在操控市场的嫌疑，这不仅影响了投资者的交易操作，还可能因价格变动太快使投资者被迫爆仓。
For example, on 11 January, Coinbase, one of the largest virtual asset trading platforms in the world, showed up for more than four hours, during which time users were unable to do business and cashiers properly. Marketers suspected that Coinbase might be suspicious of controlling the market, not only affecting investors’ transactions, but also forcing investors to blow up because of price changes.
中小型交易所跑路也平添了投资比特币的风险。仅在去年年末的3个月里，就有BG交易所、CEO Global、DragonEx等10余家交易所宣布暂停提币或消失跑路。这些交易所服务器往往设置在境外，法律适用存在争议，一旦发生交易所跑路，投资者维权将颇为艰难。
In the last three months alone, there were more than 10 BG exchanges, CEO Global, DragonEx, etc. These exchange servers were often located outside the country, the application of the law was controversial, and investors’ rights would be difficult in the event of an exchange running.
此外，比特币投资还受到黑客入侵、诈骗勒索等问题困扰。据相关统计，2020年与虚拟货币相关的诈骗事件达到151起，较2019年增长4倍，损失超过32亿美元。
In addition, Bitcoin investments are plagued by hacking, fraud, and extortion. According to statistics, the number of frauds related to virtual currency reached 151 in 2020, a fourfold increase from 2019, with losses of over $3.2 billion.
“比特币是高风险投资！如果要投资比特币，请做好血本无归的准备！”英国金融行为监管局(FCA)近日发出警告，且在1月6日，FCA已禁止向散户投资者销售追踪比特币等虚拟货币价格的产品。在我国，人民银行等七部委早在2017年9月就联合发布公告，明确代币发行是未经批准的非法公开融资行为，任何组织和个人不得非法从事代币发行融资活动。
“Bitcoin is a high-risk investment! If you want to invest in Bitcoin, prepare yourself for nothing!” The British Financial Conduct Regulatory Authority (FCA) has recently issued a warning, and on January 6, the FCA has banned the sale of products that track virtual currency prices, such as Bitcoin, to bulk investors. In our country, seven ministries and departments, including the People's Bank, issued a joint announcement in September 2017, making it clear that the issuance of coins is an unauthorized act of illegal public financing, and that no organization or individual is allowed to illegally carry out financing activities in the form of coins.
全球日趋严格的监管无疑将给比特币带来不确定性。对此，李威廉提醒，投资者应正确认识比特币的投资定位，比特币是高风险类资产，不要试图通过投资比特币来实现所谓的财富自由，投资比特币要做好亏损的准备，对于采用举债、高杠杆炒币的投资者来说，可能需要做好破产甚至负债的准备。(经济日报-中国经济网记者 李华林)
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论