FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 周四(6月13日)，美元指数跌至104.69，黄金隔夜暴涨至2341美元后，回落至2317美元喘息。比特币在68000美元剧烈震荡，此前一度逼近70000美元关口。美联储维持5.25-5.5%利率不变，符合市场预期，但主席鲍威尔释出鹰派信号，强调目前没有足够信心降息，并暗示非农就业数据夸大。
FX168 newspaper (Asia-Pacific) news < Thursday (13 June), the dollar index fell to 104.69, and gold fell back to $2317 after rising overnight to $2341. Bitcoin swollen at $68,000, before approaching $70,000. The Fed maintained a constant interest rate of 5.25-5.5%, consistent with , but President Powell released the Eagle signal, stressing that there was not enough confidence to drop and suggesting that non-farm employment data were exaggerated.
美联储“鹰派决议”展翅 鲍威尔暗示非农夸大
Federal Reserve Eagle Resolution spreads its wings and Powell suggests that the farmers exaggerate .
美国劳工局公布，美国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)与4月相比持平，年增率则为3.3%，分别低于经济学家预估的月增率0.1%和年增率3.4%。
According to the United States Office of Labour, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in May was the same as in April, with an annual increase of 3.3 per cent, which was lower than the economists' projected monthly rate of 0.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively.
除能源与食物外的核心CPI月升0.2%、年升3.4%，也分别低于经济学家预估的月涨幅0.3%和年涨幅3.5%。
The core CPI, with the exception of energy and food, rose by 0.2 per cent per month, 3.4 per cent per year, and was also lower than the economists'forecast monthly increases of 0.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent per year, respectively.
美国5月通胀大幅降温，对美联储官员来说是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，但美联储在决议后的新闻发布会，却释出了鹰派信号。
The sharp decline in inflation in the United States in May was an encouraging sign for Federal Reserve officials, but the Federal Reserve, in a press conference following the resolution, gave an eagle signal.
美联储将利率维持在目前的5.25-5.5%区间，但将降息预期下调至2024年仅降息一次。央行决策者指出，2%通胀目标已取得进一步进展。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上指出，尽管通胀已从峰值水平回落，但央行目前还没有信心降息。
Central bank policymakers noted that the 2% inflation target had made further progress. Powell stated at the press conference that, although inflation had fallen from its peak level, the central bank was not yet confident to reduce the interest rate.
美联储对2024年底联邦基金利率的预测中值已上调至5.1%，反映出美联储要求提供更多通胀下降的证据。
The Fed's projection of the federal interest rate of
(来源:Bloomberg)
美联储上调1年期利率预期，从3.9%升至4.1%。
The Federal Reserve is expected to increase its interest rate by one year, from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
两年期利率预期维持在3.1%，而长期利率预期从2.6%升至2.8%。
Interest rates are expected to remain at 3.1 per cent for the biennium, while long-term rates are expected to rise from 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent.
鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调了劳动力市场的强劲，并向市场保证美联储准备根据不断变化的经济数据调整政策。
In a press conference, Powell highlighted the strength of the labour market and assured the market that the Fed was ready to adjust its policies to changing economic data.
尽管决定维持利率稳定，但对利率路径预测的重新评估表明，降息的可能性将更长。
Despite the decision to maintain interest rate stability, a reassessment of the interest rate path projections suggests that interest rate reductions are more likely.
美联储对货币政策的限制性立场正在对通胀产生央行官员希望看到的效果，但他补充说，央行官员仍在等待看到足够的进展。
The Fed’s restrictive stance on monetary policy is having the effect that central bank officials would like to see on inflation, but he adds that central bank officials are still waiting to see enough progress.
FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 周四(6月13日)，美元指数跌至104.69，黄金隔夜暴涨至2341美元后，回落至2317美元喘息。比特币在68000美元剧烈震荡，此前一度逼近70000美元关口。美联储维持5.25-5.5%利率不变，符合市场预期，但主席鲍威尔释出鹰派信号，强调目前没有足够信心降息，并暗示非农就业数据夸大。
FX168 newspaper (Asia-Pacific) news < Thursday (13 June), the dollar index fell to 104.69, and gold fell back to $2317 after rising overnight to $2341. Bitcoin swollen at $68,000, before approaching $70,000. The Fed maintained a constant interest rate of 5.25-5.5%, consistent with , but President Powell released the Eagle signal, stressing that there was not enough confidence to drop and suggesting that non-farm employment data were exaggerated.
美联储“鹰派决议”展翅 鲍威尔暗示非农夸大
Federal Reserve Eagle Resolution spreads its wings and Powell suggests that the farmers exaggerate .
美国劳工局公布，美国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)与4月相比持平，年增率则为3.3%，分别低于经济学家预估的月增率0.1%和年增率3.4%。
According to the United States Office of Labour, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in May was the same as in April, with an annual increase of 3.3 per cent, which was lower than the economists' projected monthly rate of 0.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively.
除能源与食物外的核心CPI月升0.2%、年升3.4%，也分别低于经济学家预估的月涨幅0.3%和年涨幅3.5%。
The core CPI, with the exception of energy and food, rose by 0.2 per cent per month, 3.4 per cent per year, and was also lower than the economists'forecast monthly increases of 0.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent per year, respectively.
美国5月通胀大幅降温，对美联储官员来说是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，但美联储在决议后的新闻发布会，却释出了鹰派信号。
The sharp decline in inflation in the United States in May was an encouraging sign for Federal Reserve officials, but the Federal Reserve, in a press conference following the resolution, gave an eagle signal.
美联储将利率维持在目前的5.25-5.5%区间，但将降息预期下调至2024年仅降息一次。央行决策者指出，2%通胀目标已取得进一步进展。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上指出，尽管通胀已从峰值水平回落，但央行目前还没有信心降息。
Central bank policymakers noted that the 2% inflation target had made further progress. Powell stated at the press conference that, although inflation had fallen from its peak level, the central bank was not yet confident to reduce the interest rate.
美联储对2024年底联邦基金利率的预测中值已上调至5.1%，反映出美联储要求提供更多通胀下降的证据。
The Fed's projection of the federal interest rate of
(来源:Bloomberg)
美联储上调1年期利率预期，从3.9%升至4.1%。
The Federal Reserve is expected to increase its interest rate by one year, from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
两年期利率预期维持在3.1%，而长期利率预期从2.6%升至2.8%。
Interest rates are expected to remain at 3.1 per cent for the biennium, while long-term rates are expected to rise from 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent.
鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调了劳动力市场的强劲，并向市场保证美联储准备根据不断变化的经济数据调整政策。
In a press conference, Powell highlighted the strength of the labour market and assured the market that the Fed was ready to adjust its policies to changing economic data.
尽管决定维持利率稳定，但对利率路径预测的重新评估表明，降息的可能性将更长。
Despite the decision to maintain interest rate stability, a reassessment of the interest rate path projections suggests that interest rate reductions are more likely.
美联储对货币政策的限制性立场正在对通胀产生央行官员希望看到的效果，但他补充说，央行官员仍在等待看到足够的进展。
The Fed’s restrictive stance on monetary policy is having the effect that central bank officials would like to see on inflation, but he adds that central bank officials are still waiting to see enough progress.
鲍威尔称，尽管周三公布的5月份消费者物价指数(CPI)低于预期，但央行尚未有信心开始降息。
Powell stated that, although the consumer price index (CPI) published on Wednesday in May was lower than expected, the central bank had not yet been confident that interest rates would begin to fall.
他说道：“我们认为今天的报告取得了进展，并且增强了信心，但我们认为自己目前还没有足够的信心开始放松政策。”
He said: “We believe that today's report has made progress and increased confidence, but we believe that we are not yet confident enough to begin to relax our policies”.
他提到，委员会中没有人提出基本加息预测。
He mentioned that none of the Committees had provided a basic increase forecast.
“我们认为政策是限制性的。我们认为，最终，如果你只是将政策设定在限制性水平，最终你会看到经济真正走弱，”他说。“所以，我们一直认为，自从我们把利率提高到这个水平以来，我们一直在指向某个点的降息。”
“We think policies are restrictive. We think that, in the end, if you just set them at a restrictive level, you'll see the economy really weak,” he says. “So, we've always thought that we've been pointing at a certain point since we raised interest rates to that level.”
他续称：“这并不是要排除加息的可能性，但没有人以此作为基本预测，委员会中没有人这么认为。”
He continued: “This is not to rule out the possibility of interest increases, but none of them were used as a basic forecast, which no one in the Committee considered to be such”.
鲍威尔表示，近期强劲的就业数据可能略微“夸大”，表明基准修订可能即将进行。
Powell indicated that recent robust employment data might be slightly “exaggerated”, suggesting that a baseline revision might be forthcoming.
他在谈到美国就业报告时表示：“有人认为，就业数据可能有点夸大，但仍然很强劲。我们看到就业数据正在逐渐降温，逐渐走向更好的平衡。”
Referring to the United States Employment Report, he said: “Some people think that employment data may be a little overstretched, but they are still strong. We see that employment data are cooling down and moving towards a better balance.”
鲍威尔表示：“随着时间的推移，我们将会知道它是否具有足够的限制性。但我认为，出于我在上次新闻发布会和其他地方谈到的原因，我认为证据非常清楚，政策具有限制性，而且正在产生我们所希望的效果。”
Powell said, “We will know, over time, whether it is sufficiently restrictive. But I think, for the reasons I spoke at the last press conference and elsewhere, that the evidence is very clear, that the policy is restrictive and is producing the desired effect.”
他提到，目前尚不清楚为何普通美国人对经济的情绪如此低落。
He mentioned that it was not clear why ordinary Americans were so depressed about the economy.
他说：“我认为没有人，能够明确回答为什么人们对经济状况并不那么满意。”
He said, “I think there is no one who can answer clearly why people are less satisfied with the economic situation”.
不过，他确实指出，经济在增长，劳动力市场强劲。尽管通胀率居高不下，但他指出，物价上涨速度已“大幅”放缓。
He did point out, however, that the economy was growing and the labour market was strong. Despite high inflation, he noted that the pace of price increases had “deeply” slowed.
美元技术分析
US$ technical analysis
FXStreet分析师Patricio Martín表示，随着美联储采取强硬立场，美元指数日内前景指标有所回升，但在日线图上仍处于负值区域。
According to FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín, as the Fed took a strong stance, the United States dollar index indicators recovered over the day, but remained in a negative area on the solar map.
该指数还重新突破关键支撑位104.50，进一步增强了看涨前景，目前该指数交易于20、100和200日简单移动平均线(SMA)上方。
The index, which is now traded above the 20, 100 and 200-day simple moving mean line (SMA), has also regressed the key supporting position of 104.50, further enhancing the outlook for the increase.
黄金技术分析
gold technical analysis
FXEmpire分析师Bruce Powers表示，黄金一度触及2342美元高点，随后卖家重新掌控市场。当前，当天大部分区间均已回撤。黄金似乎可能收于当天区间的下四分之一。这并不是强势的迹象，尤其是在今天交易时段早些时候测试了50日均线附近的阻力位之后。
The FXEmpire analyst Bruce Powers said that gold once reached a high point of $2342, and then the seller regained control of the market. Currently, most of the area was evacuated. Gold seems likely to take the next quarter of the area. This is not a sign of strength, especially after the resistance position near the 50-day average was tested earlier in today’s trading period.
上周五，黄金在当天早些时候发出看涨趋势延续信号后，大幅跌破50日均线。黄金收于当日低点，这也是周线收盘价。这构成了潜在的看跌流星周线蜡烛图形态。跌破周线低点2287美元发出看跌周线趋势延续信号，表明更有可能接近较低的价格支撑目标。在日线图上，跌破摆动低点2277美元将进一步确认周线信号为看跌信号。
Last Friday, gold fell sharply into the 50-day average after sending a signal of a continuation of the upward trend earlier in the day. Gold was collected at a low point in the day, and this is a round-the-clock collection. This constitutes a potential pattern of light-line candles.
50日均线此前标志着近期上涨趋势的趋势支撑，一旦突破，随后的阻力测试和下行阻力将看跌。这是否会以新的回撤低点结束还有待观察。当日高点以及50日均线2344美元是关键的近期阻力区域。这意味着，如果金价上涨并收于2344美元上方，则表明金价走强，可能导致金价进一步上涨。
It remains to be seen whether this will end with a new retreat low. The high point of the day and the average of 50 days, $2344, are critical areas of immediate resistance. This means that if the gold price rises and is charged above $2344, it may lead to a further rise in gold prices.
图表上突出显示了从2216至2195美元的下部支撑区域，最近一次更重要的牛市突破发生在2195美元。因此，回到最近一次上涨的起点是可能的。根据到达的时间，下部上升趋势线周围的潜在支撑也可能提供指导。请注意，它是上升平行趋势通道的下线。黄金最近在顶部通道线附近遇到阻力，导致当前的回调。5月波动低点下方的第一个目标是完成2252美元的下跌ABCD模式。
The chart highlights the lower support area from $2216 to $2195, the latest more important breakthrough in the cattle market at $2195. It is therefore possible to return to the starting point of the recent rise. Depending on the time of arrival, the potential support around the lower upward trend line may also provide guidance.
(来源:FXEmpire)
比特币技术分析
bitcointechnical analysis
CoinTelegraph指出，比特币跌破20天指数移动平均线68700美元，但在50天简单移动平均线65982美元获得支撑。
CoinTelegraph stated that Bitcoin fell 20-day moving average of $68,700, but was supported by a 50-day simple moving average of $65982.
多头积极买入跌至50日SMA的低价，并将价格推高至20日EMA上方。这表明比特币可能会在一段时间内在66500至72000美元之间的窄幅区间内波动。
Many actively bought down to the 50-day SMA low prices and pushed prices up to 20-day EMA. This suggests that Bitcoins may fluctuate between $66500 and $72,000 in narrow areas over a period of time.
买家必须将价格推升至72000至73777美元的阻力区上方才能夺取控制权。这将为反弹至80000美元并最终达到88000美元打开大门。不利的一面是，跌破50日均线可能会开始下跌至60000美元。
Buyers must push prices up to $72000 to $73777 to seize control. This will open the door to a rebound to $80,000 and eventually $88,000.
(来源:CoinTelegraph)
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