文 | 智能相对论
Wirtschaftsprüfer Intelligent relativism
作者 | 青月
Author:
从科幻小说《雪崩》里走出来的元宇宙，如今正在上演“地价雪崩”。
The meta-cosmos that came out of the science fiction novel Avalanche is now playing "Avalanche of Ground Prices."
CoinGecko的一项调查显示，Otherdeed for Otherside、The Sandbox、Decentraland、Somnium Space和Voxels Metaverse 这五款知名元宇宙土地价格近期均出现了不同程度的下滑。
According to a CoinGecko survey, the prices of the five well-known Won cosmos have declined to varying degrees in recent times.
其中，歌手林俊杰曾耗资12.3万美元在Decentraland购买的3块虚拟地产，如今只值1万美元左右，浮亏91%。
Of these, singer Lin Junjie purchased three virtual properties in Decentraland at a cost of $123,000 and is now worth only about $10,000, with a loss of 91 per cent.
（图源：CoinGecko）
(Chart: CoinGecko)
“地价雪崩”是元宇宙整体热度退潮最明显的表象之一。除此之外，海内外大厂对元宇宙的“注意力”也大不如前。
The Avalanche of Ground Prices is one of the most visible manifestations of the overall heat loss in the metacosystem. Besides, the attention of large domestic and foreign plants to the metacosystem is much less than before.
All in元宇宙的Meta的RealityLabs在2022年共亏损137.17亿美元，较2021年亏损扩大34.57%；曾经的元宇宙第一股Roblox，市值一年时间蒸发约600亿美金；腾讯也宣布XR全线岗位取消。
The Reality Labs of All Incosmos lost a total of US$ 13,717 million in 2022, which is 34.57 per cent more than the 2021 deficit; Roblox, the first dollar cosmos, evaporated at a market value of about US$ 60 billion a year; and the XR full-line job was cancelled.
因为海内外大厂们，已经不约而同的被AIGC吸引了目光。
在海外，微软旗下Office、Azure云服务等所有产品都将全线整合ChatGPT，谷歌也发布基于谷歌LaMDA大模型的下一代对话AI系统Bard。聚焦国内，百度官宣正在研发的大模型类项目“文心一言”，阿里巴巴、京东等中国企业也表示正在或计划研发类似产品。
Overseas, all products such as the Microsoft flag Office, Azure Cloud Service, etc., integrate the ChatGPT on a full-line basis, and Google publishes the next generation dialogue AI system, Bard, based on Google LaMDA's big model. Focusing on the country, 100 officials declare that they are developing a large model project, “One Word,” and Chinese firms like Ali Baba and Kingdong have indicated that they are developing or are planning to develop similar products.
那么，随着基于深度学习的自然语言处理技术不断发展，未来以文心一言和ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI大模型，是否会进一步挤压元宇宙的生存空间？
So, as the technology for processing natural languages based on in-depth learning evolves, will the future generation of large models of AI, represented by rhetoric and ChatGPT, further squeeze the living space of the meta-cosmos?
AIGC不想与元宇宙为敌？
AIG >doesn't want to be an enemy of the meta-cosmos?
元宇宙和AIGC之间，绝不是彼之所得必为我之所失的“零和博弈”，反而更像是一场“正和博弈”。
There is no “zero-sum game” between the Woncos and the AIGC, which must be lost by us, but more like a “positive game”.
毕竟，元宇宙是在5G通信、人工智能、机器人、互联网、区块链等众多先进技术聚合下，形成的新型数字生态。在元宇宙这个数字生态中，AI原本就是支撑体验的底层技术之一。
After all, the meta-cosm is a new digital ecology brought together by advanced technologies such as 5G communications, artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet, block chains, and so on. In the meta-cosmos number ecology, AI was originally one of the bottom technologies underpinning the experience.
从这个层面来看，以文心一言和ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI大模型的出现和成熟，只会进一步“催熟”元宇宙。
At this level, the emergence and maturity of a large prototype of the generator AI, represented by rhetoric and ChatGPT, will only further “circumcise” the meta-cosmos.
其一，AIGC可以为元宇宙注入“体验灵魂”。
One of them, AIGC can inject into the meta-cosmos "Empirical Soul".
以XR和数字人为例，如果将元宇宙看作一个大型MMORPG游戏，那么虚拟数字人就像是游戏中的NPC和玩家，而XR则是链接玩家与游戏之间的通道，没了“通道”和“玩家”，这场游戏也就失去了“灵魂”。
In the case of XRs and numbers, if the meta-cosmos is seen as a large MMORPG game, the virtual digital person is like the NCC and the player in the game, while the XR is the gateway between the link player and the game. loses the "passway" and the "player", and the game loses the "soul."
然而，以目前XR和数字人的技术水平，显然还不足以撑起元宇宙的“故事”。要知道，截至目前为止，虚拟数字人的技术不够智能，也不支持有记忆的连续对话；VR也面临内容匮乏、眩晕感难以克服的困境。
However, it is clear that the current level of XR and digital technology is not sufficient to sustain the “treaties” of the meta-cosm. It is important to know that, to date, virtual digitalists are not sufficiently intelligent and do not support continuous dialogue with memory; VR is also faced with a lack of content and a sense of dizziness that is difficult to overcome.
不过当XR和虚拟数字人“接入”AIGC之后，不仅可以优化虚拟数字人的语言交互功能，还可以让虚拟数字人的知识图谱也从单一领域走向综合领域；XR硬件也可以在系统层等多个环节中调用ChatGPT相关功能，AR内容的交互方式或许将会迎来新的变化。
However, when XR and virtual digital individuals “access” AGC, it not only optimizes the linguistic interaction of virtual digital individuals, but also allows the knowledge mapping of virtual digital individuals to move from a single domain to an integrated one; XR hardware can also call on ChatGPT-related functions in multiple segments, such as the system layer, and the way AR content interacts may change.
考虑到这一点，目前至少有十余家虚拟数字人厂商宣布其虚拟数字人产品接入ChatGPT接口，与此同时，李未可、Rokid、雷鸟创新、影目等多家国内的AR眼镜创企都已经开始尝试将ChatGPT融入其产品中。
With this in mind, at least a dozen virtual digital manufacturers have now announced that their virtual digital products are connected to the ChatGPT interface, while a number of national AR-glass initiatives, such as Li Wiko, Rokid, Leibird Innovation and Film, have begun to try to integrate ChatGPT into their products.
其二，AIGC能助力元宇宙内容创作生态的形成。
Second, AIGC can contribute to the formation of ecology in the creation of cosmic content.
虽然目前以ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI主要以文本、图片生成等2D信息为主，但可以预见到的是，随着大模型迭代速度不断加快，生成式AI将会很快涉及到3D领域。
While the current generation AI, represented by ChatGPT, is dominated by 2D information such as text, photo generation, etc., it can be expected that with the acceleration of large models, generation AI will soon be involved in 3D areas.
届时，AIGC或许将大大提高内容生成的效率，降低成本，为构建元宇宙这一更为宏大的场景提供工具支撑。
At that time, AIGC may significantly improve the efficiency of content generation, reduce costs and provide tools to support the construction of the larger scenario of the meta-cosm.
举一个简单的例子，在“完全体”的元宇宙游戏中，至少要达到《头号玩家》里绿洲的水平，那么必然需要搭建更多元、更精细的场景。业内人士曾估算过，如果要考虑到视觉效果，专业画师一张图的成本可能在5000元至1万元，那要搭建一个完整的世界所需要的资金将会是一个天文数字，绝非一两家互联网企业可以负担。
To give a simple example, in the “complete” metaspace game, at least to the level of oasis in the first player, more meta- and more sophisticated scenes are necessary. Industryers have estimated that if visual effects are taken into account, the cost of a professional drawing could be between $5,000 and $10,000, and that the cost of building a world as a whole would be an astronomical number, not a single Internet enterprise or two.
在这样的市场环境下，AIGC作为继PGC、UGC之后的新型内容创作方式，采用人工智能技术来自动生产内容，一张图的成本可以降至4毛，甚至更低，并且效率更高。比如在NVIDIA instant-ngp和tiny-cuda-nn的帮助下，网易瑶台神经隐式曲面建模的速度从一开始的10个小时，优化到了10到20分钟，相比传统MAYA类手工建模效率提升百倍。
In this market environment, AIGC, as a new form of content creation that follows PGC, UGC, uses artificial intelligence technology to automatically produce content, the cost of a map can be reduced to 40 gross, if not less, and is more efficient. With the help of NVIDIA instant-ngp and Tiny-cuda-nn, for example, the speed of modelling of the neural invisible surfaces of the meridium stands has improved from 10 hours to 10 to 20 minutes, a 100-fold increase in the efficiency of the traditional MAYA type of manual modelling.
结合这些特点，「智能相对论」认为，即便当下AIGC热度大爆，但元宇宙正在失去往日的讨论度，但AIGC并不是来与元宇宙的抢热度甚至拿走“饭碗”的。反而，两者之间存在的是一种正向的线性关系，生成式AI技术的成熟，将会为元宇宙带来突破性机遇。
In combination with these characteristics, "intellectual relativism" argues that, even at a time when the AIGC heat is blowing, the meta-cosm is losing the discussion of the past, but the AIGC is not here to rob the meta-cosm and even take away the "diplomatic" from it. On the contrary, there is a positive linear relationship between the two, and the maturity of the generating AI technology will provide a breakthrough opportunity for the meta-cosm.
元宇宙是“真崩盘”还是“假熄火”？
Is the meta-cosmos "real crash" or "false fire out"?
AIGC会在未来元宇宙的搭建中扮演着重要的角色，但不可否认的是，元宇宙如今进入“阵痛期”，与AIGC的出现与发展有着密不可分的关系。
AIGC will play an important role in the construction of the future meta-cosmos, but it is undeniable that the meta-cosmos is now entering a “struck period” that is inextricably linked to the emergence and development of the AGC.
一个显而易见的现实问题就是，在元宇宙与AIGC这两个高强度的赛场，还没有什么企业能够“财大气粗”地同时入场。
One obvious reality is that in the two high-intensity arenas of the meta-cosmos and the AIGC, there is not yet a single company that can enter simultaneously in a “rich atmosphere”.
要想跑通一次100亿以上参数量的模型，至少要做到“千卡/月”这个级别，按照一张GPU五万元的均价计算，1000张GPU意味着单月5000万的算力成本。
To run through a model of more than 10 billion logarithms at least at the “kcal/month” level, 1,000 GPUs, based on an average price of 50,000 yuan per GPU, represent an arithmetic cost of 50 million a month.
业界测算， GPT-3 涉及 1750 亿参数，训练费用约花费 1200 万美元。据国盛证券报告估算，GPT-3 训练一次成本约为140万美元，每一次训练任务都耗资巨大。
The industry estimates that GPT-3 involves a 17.5 billion-dollar parameter and that training costs approximately $12 million. According to GPT-3 training costs about $1.4 million per training exercise.
AIGC的成本投入尚且还有清晰的账目可算，但“能装下未来”的元宇宙，在成本上难以看到尽头。
AIGC's cost input is yet to be accounted for by clear accounts, but the metacosystem, which “capable of the future”, can hardly be seen to end at cost.
尤其是，在宏观经济疲软的当下，行业“主旋律”进入降本增效时，在“相对遥远”的元宇宙与“足够临近”的AIGC之间，大部分企业都会做最具性价比的选择。
In particular, at a time of macroeconomic weakness, when the industry's “mode” entered into mitigation efficiency, most enterprises made the best value for money choice between the “relatively distant” meta-cosm and the “sufficiently close” AIGC.
并且，除了成本性价比AIGC的可预见性更高，在回报上，国内元宇宙暂时还未实现规模商业化，短期内难以带来回报，但AIGC已经有了可预期的商业化链路。
And, apart from the fact that the cost value is more predictable than that of AIGC, in return, the domestic meta-cosmos has not yet been commercialized on a scale that is likely to yield returns in the short term, but AIGC already has a predictable commercial link.
华为公司蓝军顾问蒋国文也曾表示：“当前，元宇宙的发展还没有跨过裂谷，预计10年进入业务商用的初期。”
“The development of the Yuan cosmos has not yet crossed the Rift Valley and is expected to enter the early stages of business in 10 years.”
与之相对的是，以ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI技术已经可以在搜索、内容工具等领域切实为用户带来生产效率提升，也能带来一定的收入。百度自3月16日开放文心一言内测至今，就已有15万企业申请文心一言内测，其中有超300家生态伙伴在400多个具体场景取得测试成效。
By contrast, the generation AI technology, represented by ChatGPT, has been able to bring about real productivity gains for users in the areas of search, content tools, and income. Since March 16, when open-mindedness measures have been introduced, 150,000 companies have applied for in-depth measurements, including more than 300 eco-partners that have been tested on more than 400 specific sites.
两相对比，也就不难理解为什么更多的企业愿意将资源选择投入到AIGC而不是元宇宙。
By contrast, it is easy to understand why more firms are willing to invest their resources in AIGC rather than in the metaspace.
AIGC的出现，确实“非主动地”挤压了一部分元宇宙的“生存空间”。站在长期视角下，元宇宙依旧具有很高的想象空间。
The emergence of the aGC does “non-actively” crush the “space for survival” of parts of the meta-cosm. From a long-term perspective, the meta-cosmos continues to have a high degree of imagination.
一方面，虽然部分互联网企业打“退堂鼓”，但国内有多个地方政府，仍坚持展开在元宇宙领域的新布局。
On the one hand, although some Internet companies “retrench”, there are a number of local governments in the country that persist in the new geography of the meta-cosm.
比如，苏州市工信局近日发布2023年度苏州市元宇宙重大应用场景需求，涉及7大领域30项需求场景，开始向社会征集解决方案；河南省则印发《2023年河南省数字化转型战略工作方案》，支持郑州市争创国家元宇宙创新应用先导区。
For example, in recent days, the Suzhou City Engineering and Information Agency has released a 2023 demand for major applications of the Suzhou City Yuan cosmos, covering 30 needs scenarios in seven major areas, and has begun to solicit solutions from society; and in Henan province, the Henan Province has published the Work Programme for Digital Transformation in Henan Province 2023, which supports the city of Zhengzhou in its bid to create a pilot area for the innovation of the National Yuan cosmos.
截止目前，国内已有近40省市地区发布元宇宙产业发展规划文件，另外，还有超10个地区成立元宇宙相关产业基金，基金总规模近300亿元人民币，UBS（瑞银）上个月将元宇宙加入了其长期投资清单。
To date, nearly 40 provincial and municipal regions of the country have issued plans for the development of the meso-cosmos industry. In addition, more than 10 regions have established a meso-cosmos-related industry fund with a total size of nearly 30 billion yuan. UBS added the meso-cosmos to its long-term investment list last month.
企业的“退”多是从现实的经济层面考量，但政府的“进”，代表的就是该产业是未来的方向。见一隅而窥全貌，元宇宙产业的潜力和重要性不言而喻。
The firm's “retrenchment” is mostly a consideration of the real economy, but the government's “advance” represents the future direction of the industry. The potential and importance of the meta-cosmology industry is self-evident.
另一方面，从Gartner技术成熟度曲线来看，元宇宙技术的发展也符合整体趋势。
On the other hand, the development of meta-cosm technology is consistent with the overall trend, as seen in the Gartner technological maturity curve.
2021年3月，借Roblox上市的契机，元宇宙概念爆火，导致行业过热，而后在今年开始遇冷。当元宇宙的热度下滑到某个相对底部的位置后，泡沫出尽，又会逐渐从低谷开始爬升，行业的发展会更加理性和健康。
In March 2021, on the occasion of Roblox's listing, the concept of the meta-cosmos exploded, causing the industry to overheat, and then became cold this year. When the heat of the meta-cosmos fell to a relative bottom position, the bubble burst and gradually began to climb from the valley, and the industry developed more rationally and healthyly.
正因为如此，一部分真正坚持对元宇宙投入的企业已经清晰浮现，并在未来或将在各自的领域引领元宇宙健康前行。
That is why some of the companies that really insist on investing in the meta-cosmos have clearly emerged and will lead in the future, or will lead in their respective fields, towards the health of the meta-cosmos.
比如，中国移动咪咕的鼓浪屿元宇宙项目，为用户提供文旅游览、互动娱乐、消费购物等数字生活体验，打造自主可控、自由探索、即时互动、实时在线的“元宇宙第一岛”；作为2023网络春晚的虚拟技术支持，网易瑶台还为央视网成功打造了网络春晚首个元宇宙会场，并建设性的配备了智能捏脸、自由换装以及多种趣味互动玩法，为观众带来了颠覆式的虚实结合的晚会体验。
For example, China's mobile titanium gullium cosmopolitan project provides users with digital life experiences such as literary tours, interactive entertainment, consumer shopping, and the creation of a self-controlled, free-to-exploration, instant interaction, real-time online “First Island of the Woncos”; and, as a virtual technical support for the late spring evening of the 2023 network, it successfully built the first Won cosmonautium on the spring evening of the Web, with a constructive mix of intelligent face-stuffing, freely changing costumes and a variety of fun interactive games, which has led to a subversive evening experience for viewers.
Meta公布的一项全球发展研究报告显示，截止2031年，元宇宙产业发展普及将为全球经济贡献3.01万亿美元。而那些泡沫撇去之后的元宇宙真正投入者，定然是贡献中最大的推手，也将从中获益。
A global development study published by Meta shows that, by 2031, the expansion of the meta-cosm industry will have contributed $3.01 trillion to the global economy. And those who really invest in the meta-cosm after the bubbles are certainly the biggest contributors and will benefit from it.
总而言之，AIGC作为一种新的内容生产方式，与作为新型社会形态的元宇宙之间，目前看似是此起彼伏的“竞争”关系，实则是相辅相成的“共生”关系。AIGC的成熟，将会为元宇宙带来突破性机遇；而元宇宙的良性发展，又为AIGC的落地提供了无限场景。
In sum, the relationship between AIGC as a new form of content production, and the meta-cosmos as a new form of society, which now appears to be the “competition” relationship, is complementary and mutually reinforcing. The maturity of AIGC will provide a breakthrough opportunity for the meta-cosmos; and the benign development of the meta-cosmos, which will provide an infinite scenario for the landing of AIGC.
虽然由于前期过高的市场预期及炒作，导致依然处于概念和原型阶段的元宇宙有些后劲不足，但或许如同网易瑶台负责人刘柏曾表示的那样：“元宇宙并没有凉，而是变得更加良性或理性，元宇宙未来一定还是很重要的发展方向。”
Although there is a lack of strength in the metacosystem, which is still at the conceptual and prototype stage, due to pre-existing excessive market expectations and speculation, it may be, as the head of the melancholy tower Liu said: “The metrocosm is not cold, but has become more benign or rational, and the future of the metrocosmos must still be an important direction for development.”
在潮水退去的那一天，元宇宙企业估值或许将逐步回归。
On the day the tides retreated, the valuation of the meta-cosmos industry might gradually return.
*本文图片均来源于网络
*The photos are from the Internet.
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