原文作者：Wenser
This post is part of our special coverage Syria Protests 2011.
原文来源：Odaily星球日报
Source: Odaily Planet.
过去几天，受 Mt.Gox 近 90 亿美元的比特币抛售预期影响，比特币一反上涨态势，进入下行阶段，最低一度跌破 59000 美元；而另外一边，原本受到比特币连带影响的以太坊因现货 ETF 即将通过的预期而价格反弹上涨。体现在二者的价格走势上，颇有“比特币向左，以太坊向右”的参差差异，也无怪乎之前知名加密研究机构 10X Research 因其“看多 BTC、看空 ETH”的言论而遭到市场玩家的嘲讽。
Over the past few days, under the influence of the expected sale of Mt.Gox, which is close to $9 billion in bitcoins, bitcoins have gone up and down, with a minimum drop of $59,000; on the other hand, Ether, which is already affected by Bitcoins, has rebounded in prices due to the expected passage of the spot ETF. This is reflected in the price movement of “bitcoins to the left, and to the right” differences, and it is no surprise that 10X Research, a well-known cryptographic institution, has been mocked by market players for its “many BTC, to the empty ETH” rhetoric.
本文对目前市场的重量观点进行采访与整理，发言者包括机构、分析师、平台负责人以及加密 KOL，供读者参考。
This paper interviews and collates the weight views of the current market. Speakers include institutions, analysts, platform leaders and encrypted KOL for the information of readers.
以太坊 ETF 通过在即，比特币却坚持不住了？
E.T.F.E.F. through here, Bitcoin can't hold on?
据《财富》报道，近日，美国 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 在回答关于以太坊现货 ETF 批准进程的询问时表示：“我不知道具体时间，但进展很顺利。”他解释说，其团队正在等待资产管理者做出“适当的披露”。
According to Wealth, in response to a query about the Etherpant spot ETF approval process, the US SEC President, Gary Gensler, recently said, “I don't know the exact time, but it's going well. explained that his team is waiting for the asset manager to make a “appropriate disclosure”.
看得出来，以太坊现货 ETF 在 19b-4文件通过之后，S-1 文件的通过也近乎板上钉钉；但另外一边，随着 Mt.Gox 这桩持续十数年的“陈年奇案”终于接近尾声，即将以“向债权人进行按比例赔付”的形式划上句号，却也因此带来了海量抛压的预期。
As can be seen, after the adoption of the 19b-4 document, the passage of the S-1 document was almost nailed; but on the other hand, as Mt. Gox, a decade-long “old wonder” case, finally came to an end, it was about to end in the form of a “proportional payment to creditors”, which also gave rise to expectations of weight overhang.
根据此前的《Mt.Gox代币还款7月启动，这些事情需提前了解》一文，我们可以得知将于 7 月份进行的债权人赔付是“Mt.Gox 第一次以 BTC、BCH 的形式进行还款，这意味着 Mt.Gox 所持有的 141686 枚 BTC（还有数量基本相同的 BCH）将开始流向市场。这些 BTC 占比特币流通总供应量的 0.72% ，价值约合 85.4 亿美元。”此外，德国政府罚没的 30 亿美元比特币资产最近也动作频频，结合比特币早期持有者与矿工、上市矿企近期的场外交易，比特币近期抛售量粗略估计超 30 亿美元左右。
Based on the earlier version of Mt. Gox indicia, which was launched in July and which requires advance information on these matters, we can learn that “Mt. Gox first paid in the form of BTC, BCH” in July, which means that Mt. Gox holds 141,686 BTCs (and roughly the same number of BCHs) to the market. These BTCs account for 0.72% of the total volume of Bitcoins in circulation, with a value of about US$ 85.40 billion.” In addition, the German government fined US$ 3 billion in bitcoin assets with a recent frequency, combined with the recent out-of-country transactions between Bitcoins early holders and miners and upper-market miners, which are estimated to be slightly over US$ 3 billion.
要知道，经历了近半年积累的比特币现货 ETF 净流入资金总量目前约为 143.87 亿美元左右，不过是与以上资产总额堪堪持平，因此市场恐慌情绪再正常不过。
As you know, after almost six months of accumulated spot capital inflows of Bitcoin, the total net inflows of ETFs are currently around $143.87 billion, but are at the same level as the total assets above, so market panic is all the more normal.
但不少行业人士仍持有不同观点。
However, many people in the industry still have different views.
后市一团迷雾，行业人士怎么看？
What do you think of the fog in the city after the strong?
截止撰稿时，比特币价格为 61549 美元左右， 24 小时涨幅为 0.66% ；以太坊价格为 3389 美元左右， 24 小时涨幅为 0.5% 。对于之后的行情，我们粗略地将预测观点分为 4 类：积极乐观派、谨慎乐观派、偏向悲观派以及先跌后涨派，以下是详细内容。
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was about $615,549, with an increase of 0.66 per cent in 24 hours; at a price of about $3389 and a 0.5 per cent increase in 24 hours. For subsequent behaviors, we broadly divided the projections into four categories: positive optimists, cautious optimists, pessimists and first-downs, as detailed below.
积极乐观派：历史新高仍值得期待
在近期的媒体采访中，eToro 市场分析师 Farhan Badami 表示，比特币通常被视为“具有前瞻性”的资产，并且通常会在重大市场事件中进行定价，因此，他预计比特币价格将在未来几周内趋于稳定，并在未来几个月继续反弹至历史新高。“而在接下来的几周内，比特币价格可能会在 6 万至 7 万美元之间波动。”
In a recent media interview, Farhan Badami, market analyst < strong>eToro , stated that Bitcoin was usually seen as a “foreseeable” asset and was usually priced during major market events, so he expected that Bitcoin prices would stabilize in the coming weeks and continue to rebound to historical highs in the coming months. “In the next few weeks, Bitcoin prices could fluctuate between $60,000 and $70 million.”
CryptoQuant 分析师 Mignolet 指出，根据去年盘整阶段的 UTXO 盈利率百分比分析，虽然目前比特币价格处于盘整阶段，但 UTXO 盈利率百分比明显脱离了低点。此时，囤币鲸鱼可能会对市场恐慌做出反应（即如同巴菲特的投资名言所说：“别人恐惧时我贪婪”，在市场恐慌时买入比特币），预示着市场可能出现 V 型反弹。
数字资产交易公司 ZeroCap 的首席投资官Jonathan de Wet表示，尽管整个加密货币市场“仍在继续下跌”，但他预计，随着 Mt.Gox 债权人偿还债务的进行，比特币的价格将在未来几周跌至“关键支撑位”—— 57, 000 美元。“而考虑到市场的其他部分资产标的，BTC 和 ETH 的表现实际上出奇地好，（此前二者的）关键支撑位分别在 63, 000 美元和 3, 400 美元，并且仍然明显处于过去几个月的价格区间内。”所以，虽然由于 Mt. Gox 债权人偿还带来的抛售压力，比特币和其他加密货币在未来一周可能会进一步下跌，但他对长期前景仍持乐观态度。“从中长期来看，我们持建设性态度，因为 ETH ETF 预计在 2024 年底推出时会出现宽松倾向，然后在 2025 年实现实际宽松。”
The Chief Investment Officer of ZeroCap, ZeroCap, Jonathan de Wet, stated that although the entire encrypted currency market “is continuing to decline”, he expected that, with Mt.Gox creditors paying their debts, the price of Bitcoin would fall to “critical support” — $57,000 in the coming weeks.” “while considering the other parts of the market subject matter, BTC and ETH actually performed well, the key supporting positions (previously 63,000 United States dollars and 3, 400 United States dollars) were expected to be reduced by the end of 2024, and remained clearly within the price range of the past few months.” So, while Mt. Gox creditors were under pressure to pay, Bitco and other encrypted currencies were likely to fall further in the coming week, he remained optimistic about the long-term prospects. “In the medium- and long-term, we have a constructive attitude, because the ETH ETF is expected to be less favourable by the end of the year, then to achieve real easing in 2025.”
谨慎乐观派：等待近期关键数据与四季度关键节点
近日，Matrixport 发文称，多家比特币 ETEF 发行商数据显示，包括资产管理公司、投资顾问、养老基金和主权财富基金在内的机构投资者都在购买比特币现货 ETF。然而，自三月中旬以来，资金流入几乎为零，并且在过去十天里看到 12 亿美元的资金流出，机构投资者的入场速度可能比预期的要慢。 Recently, Swan Bitcoin 高级分析师 Sam Callahan在与媒体的沟通邮件中表示，“Mt. Gox 分发比特币对比特币价格的影响可能被夸大了，那些想要出售比特币的债权人已经历了 10 多年的时间，在这一期间内，他们有足够的时间将自己的破产债权出售给更有决心的长期投资者。此外，大多数债权人可能会继续持有比特币，因为他们单枚比特币的持仓成本低于 700 美元。” 持有这一观点的不在少数。 This view is not held in a minority. Galaxy 研究主管 Alex Thorn 此前表示：“可以合理地假设，从债权人那里获得债权的基金收到的大部分 BTC 将以实物形式分配给 LP，而不是出售。” 5 月 28 日，来自 Mt.Gox 的 2.5 万枚 BTC 开始转移，此举当时被 Alex 视为向债权人进行赔付分配的开始。除此以外，他预计大多数的 BTC 资产会被持有，但对 BCH 而言，或许将迎来短期内的海量抛压。 Alex Thorn , research manager of 中文加密 KOL Phyrex表示，就短期的大盘情况而言，价格很难预期，但从关键数据指标来说，本周五的核心 PCE 以及下周五的非农数据如果能实现市场预期， BTC 和 ETH 或有一定上涨空间。 7 月 2 日以太坊现货 ETF 的通过节点以及第二天开放交易也是重要因素，可能会带动投资者情绪。目前市场主要受美联储货币政策影响，降息预期占大头。 针对 ETH 现货 ETF，他认为“Sell The News ”的情况一定会出现，但基于 BTC 现货 ETF 通过以后的走势，这或许并不是最好选择，毕竟，“当初 Sell The News 而出售 BTC 的投资者到现在最少少赚了 40% 以上”。除此以外，他认为美国大选将是对风险市场的刺激；自己则通常采取定投策略进行投资操作。 In response to ETH spot ETF, he argued that the “Sell The News” situation would certainly arise, but that it might not be the best option, based on the subsequent movement of BTC spot ETF, after all, “the investors who sold the Sell The News have now made at least 40% less than 40% less.” In addition, he argued that America’s general elections would be an incentive for risk markets; and that they would normally invest in investment strategies. 经纪商 Bernstein在近期发布的研究报告中指出，以太坊现货 ETF 一旦获准交易，其需求来源可能与比特币 ETF 相似，但规模将较小。分析师 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 在报告中强调，由于缺乏以太坊质押功能，以太坊现货 ETF 的转换量预计不会过多。然而，他们预计基础交易将逐渐吸引买家，从而维持 ETF 市场的健康流动性。 In a recent study, 此外，尽管近期加密货币市场出现回调，但该报告强调“加密货币结构性采用周期依然完整”。 In addition, despite recent rebounds in the crypto-currency market, the report emphasizes that “the structured adoption cycle of crypto-currency remains complete”. 偏向悲观派：流动性表现及资本市场表现欠佳 加密货币交易平台 Bitfinex的最新周报显示，上周美国现货比特币 ETF 每个交易日流出资金超过 1 亿美元，总流出金额达 5.441 亿美元。该交易平台分析师表示，资金流出是弱势 ETF 投资者对短期负面消息做出反应以及负融资利率导致的基差/融资套利平仓的综合结果。基差/资金套利解除的迹象之一是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和其他交易平台上的比特币期货未平仓合约大幅下降。持仓量减少与过去一周多家交易所的负融资利率相吻合，也与 ETF 净流出相吻合，这表明与 ETF 资金流动相关的融资套利交易大幅减少。 The latest weekly report of 鉴于此，必须认识到并非所有 ETF 资金流出都可以被解读为现货销售。由于加密资产短时走势仍然呈疲软态势，所以目前市场情绪仍然看跌。 In view of this, it is important to recognize that not all ETF outflows can be interpreted as off-the-shelf sales. Market sentiment is still declining as encryption assets remain weak at short notice. Deribit 亚太商务负责人 Lin表示，现阶段并不太看好大盘表现：以太坊本来有 ETF 的利好，但受到整体行情拖累，可能要 8 月才能正式上市交易。比特币则主要对标美国科技股，关注宏观经济指标和美联储动向。整体而言，夏季行情普遍一般，目前交易上基本只有短线的机会，建议非短线玩家可以持大币种现货观望，山寨尽量清仓。以太坊的价格表现则主要看整体市场流动性、未来流动性预期（特别是降息预期）、现货 ETF 进度，以及是否有明确的新闻利好（如传统的龙头机构或者名人买入 ETF，如苹果，微软购买现货 ETF）。此外，市场共识是今年第四季度美联储或将降息，第三季度对这一预期的炒作，结合美国大选结果出炉的时间，将会是一大关键节点。 According to Lin /strung, the Asia-Pacific Business Manager of Deribit, in general, summers are generally common, and it is recommended that non-line players have a large currency view at this stage, and that they should be as clean as possible. In the third quarter of this year, it will be a key point in terms of overall market liquidity, future liquidity expectations (especially interest-reduction expectations), current ETF progress, and whether there is a clear news profit (e.g. traditional dragon-heads or celebrity buys ETFs, such as apples, micro-soft purchases of current ETFs). 具体到投资操作层面，Lin 认为市场仍处于慢牛周期，所以，当价格跌破关键性技术指标并开始止跌，自己一般会卖出看跌期权以建仓或者作为收息；而如果价格暴涨接近新高，也可以右侧操作，卖出部分看涨期权以收息。BTC 和 ETH 当下都是很好的收息资产。60 ， 000 美元和 3, 000 美元是 BTC 和 ETH 的整数类信心指标。目前主要关注的山寨币包括 SOL 和 WLD，策略则是当市场指标较好时，更加关注山寨；市场行情较弱时，不看山寨。 At the operational level of investment, Lin believes that the market is still running slowly, so when prices break key technological indicators and begin to stop falling, they usually sell their options to build a warehouse or collect interest; if prices soar close to new heights, they can do so on the right. BTC and ETH are good interest-bearing assets at the moment. $60,000 and $3,000 are full confidence indicators for BTC and ETH. 先跌后涨派：消化抛压后，市场才能重新起飞 加密研究机构 10X Research 发文表示，目前比特币严重超卖；部分山寨币经历波动后，KOL 建议粉丝们逢低买入，贪婪与恐惧指数接近最低水平，通常与价格低点相关。比特币抛售的原因有很多：Mt.Gox 的比特币分销（预估价值为 90 亿美元，从 7 月开始）、德国政府出售没收的比特币（30 亿美元）、比特币矿工出售 20-30 亿美元、ETF 出售 14 亿美元、比特币 OG 钱包出售 12 亿美元等。假设总量为 160-180 亿美元——与今年迄今为止的比特币 ETF 流入量相似。此前内部交易信号提供了多个卖出比特币的信号。 The encryption research institute 10X Research indicated that bitcoins were currently grossly oversold; after some of them experienced fluctuations, KOL advised fans to buy low, greed and fear index near the lowest levels, usually associated with low prices. Bitcoins were sold for a number of reasons: Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin distribution (with an estimated value of $9 billion, starting in July), the German government’s sale of confiscated bitcoin ($3 billion), the Bitcoin miner’s sale of $20-30 billion, ETF’s sale of $1.4 billion, and the Bitcoins OG wallet sale of $1.2 billion. The total was assumed to be $160-18 billion – similar to the Bitcoins ETF inflows to date this year. 尽管许多人声称最近的下跌是由于 Mt.Gox 的 fud（以及上面提到的其他因素），但某结构性因素或将导致更深的下跌，然后才可能从较低水平反弹。 Although many claim that the recent decline was due to the fud of Mt. Gox (and other factors mentioned above), , certain structural factors may lead to deeper declines before it is possible to rebound from lower levels. 小结：比特币价格经受抛压考验，以太坊受现货 ETF 预期影响 Summary: Bitcoin prices are tested by pressure and Etheria is expected to be affected by the spot ETF 纵览以上观点，我们能够明显看到业内人士总体仍处于谨慎乐观阶段，但比特币价格经受包括 Mt.Gox 债权人赔偿抛压已是注定结局，尽管这一事件的进行仍需一段不短的时间，但市场情绪的发酵已经早早开始，并直接反应到价格上。以太坊则因现货 ETF 通过预期的影响暂时来到了价格稳定期，但如果现货 ETF 后续更新进度不及市场预期，或许将“利好落地成利空”。 Looking at these points, we can see clearly that the industry is still generally at a stage of cautious optimism, but the price of Bitcoin is bound to pass, including Mt.Gox’s creditors’ compensation overhang. Although the event will take a long time, the fermentation of market sentiment has begun early and is reflected directly in the price. Ether’s ETF has temporarily reached price stabilization through the expected impact, but if the ETF’s follow-up update is not as fast as the market expects, it may be “favourable”. 另外，对于造成目前复杂市场情况的影响因素，Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 此前发文表示，因比特币现货 ETF 人为地将未来的投资需求大幅提前，因而导致过去一年的比特币投资令人沮丧，罪魁祸首则是灰度的 GBTC，即受对冲基金溢价交易影响，GBTC 提前了数百亿美元的未来需求，结果就是比特币必须吸引数百亿美元的新需求才能维持现状。 In addition, in response to the impact factors that have contributed to the current complex market situation, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, has previously sent a communication that by artificially pre-empting future investment needs in Bitcoin, the ETF has led to discouraging investment in bitcoins over the past year, the worst of which is the grey-scale GBTC, which, as a result of hedge fund premiums, pre-empts the future demand of tens of billions of dollars, with the result that Bitcoins must attract hundreds of billions of dollars in new demands in order to maintain the status quo. 从这个角度来看，比特币现货 ETF 的通过是好是坏，还真不好评述，这一点我们在之前的《数据抽丝：ETF 正在推延真牛市》一文也有提到。 From this point of view, the passage of the bitcoin spot ETF is good or bad, and it's not easy to comment, as we mentioned in our previous article, Data Puff: ETF is delaying the City of Truth. 至于未来一到两个月的大盘走向，或许仍将保持目前的状态——“比特币向左，以太坊向右”。返回搜狐，查看更多
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