? ? “比特币肯定要涨的，你赶快买一点”，“比特币现在价格这么高了，而且有很多机构和个人利用它洗钱，政府早晚会取缔它，你最好不要买”，我们经常会听到类似的对话，这时你的大脑接受到了两种截然相反的信息，这时如果你该怎么做？应该听谁的呢？你是不是在想我应该好好分析一下，这个思考分析的过程我们就需要掌握提问的技巧以甄别不同信息的可靠性。我们从小接受的被动式的教育让我们的大脑会习惯了简单接受、吸收，而缺乏辨别知识本身的价值、正确性、拓展性等问题。假如我们一直保持这样的习惯到底会带来怎样的危害？当今社会我们接触到的是海量的知识和信息，如果缺乏辨别知识和信息本身正确与否的能力，你就会像一个被动的傻子一样，听到的、看到的东西都会信以为真，让自己的大脑变成了一个只会储存信息和知识的垃圾场，那么我们如何建立摆脱目前的困境，答案就是要通过建立批判性思维-学会提问？
♪ Bitcoin's gonna go up, buy a little bit ♪ ♪ "Bitcoin's gonna go up, you're gonna get a little bit." ♪ "Bitcoin's now so high, and there's a lot of institutions and individuals that use it to launder money, and the government's going to shut it down sooner or later. ♪ ♪ We're going to hear a similar conversation when your brain gets two opposite messages. What if you do?
? ? 批判性思维（Critical? Thinking ）,主要有包含三个方面的含义：
♪ Critical? Thinking ♪ ♪ three main dimensions:
? ? ? 1、有一套相互关联、环环相扣的关键问题的意识；
♪ 1 awareness of a set of interrelated and interrelated key issues;
? ? ? 2、恰如其分地提问和回答问题的能力；
2 - ability to ask questions and answer questions properly;
? ? ? 3、积极主动地利用关键问题的强烈愿望；
♪ ♪ 3, a strong desire to be proactive in taking advantage of key issues;
? ? ? ? 举个列子，关于美国社会有个久拖未决的重大问题，牵涉到美国人究竟需要什么样的枪支管制法案。让我们看看有关问题的一个立场：
Let's see what kind of gun control bill Americans need. Let's take a stand on the issue:
? ? ? ? 支持禁枪的理由大多是臆造出来的，现在我们需要的根本不是更多的法案，而是更大的执行力度。有个臆造的理由是：很多杀人犯都是普普通通的守法良民，不过出于一时冲动杀了杀了自己的亲人或是朋友，因为抢就在手边。事实上，针对杀人犯的每一项研究都显示，杀人犯当中绝大多数都是惯犯，这些人一生恶性累累、犯案不断。一个典型的杀人犯在犯下罪行之前平均至少有六年的犯罪式，其中四次是重罪被捕。
The reason for supporting a gun ban is largely hypothetical, and what we need now is not more bills, but more enforcement. The hypothesis is that many murderers are ordinary law-abiding people, but they kill their loved ones or friends out of an impulse, because the robbery is on hand. In fact, every study of murderers shows that the vast majority of murderers are repeat offenders, who have a vicious and persistent life cycle. A typical murderer has been arrested on average for at least six years before committing a crime, four of which are felons.
? ? ? ? ? 另一个臆造的理由是枪支持有者都是些目不识丁的人，动不动就喜欢好勇斗狠。但是，研究向来都显示：平均而言，枪支持有者比没有枪支的人受过更高的教育，从事更有声望的工作。根据他们填写的枪支申请表来看，一下这些人都是（或曾经是）枪支持有者：艾丽诺.罗斯福（总统罗斯福的夫人）、琼.里弗斯（著名影星）、唐纳德.特朗普（现任总统）和大卫.洛克菲勒（银行家）。
But research has always shown that, on average, gun-holders are better educated and do more prestigious work than those without guns. According to the firearms application forms they fill in, these are (or used to be) gun-holders: Eleanor Roosevelt, Joan Rivers, Donald Trump, and David Rockefeller.
? ? ? ? 就算枪支管制法案有可能减少涉枪的犯罪行为，那么将现行法律真正一一付诸实施也就足够管用了。既然法庭不止一次的证明这些法律根本不会得到执行，那就制定再严厉的法律又有什么用呢？
Even if a gun control bill is likely to reduce gun-related crime, it would be enough to put existing laws into practice. Since the courts have proved more than once that these laws will not be enforced, what is the use of more stringent laws?
针对以上一段话的描述，通过批判性思维可以提出以下几个问题：
In response to the description of the preceding paragraph, the following questions can be raised through critical thinking:
（1）作者提到的“绝大多数人”或“典型的杀人犯”是个什么概念？是否意味着剩下来的那些“少数人”当中仍然有相当数量的杀人犯出于一时冲动而枪杀了自己的亲人？
(1) What is the concept of the “absolute majority” or “typical killer” referred to by the author? Does it mean that a significant number of the remaining “minorities” still kill their loved ones out of an impulse?
（2）“枪支持有者”是什么意思？是不是主张枪支管制的人竭力推动禁持某些特种枪支，而这一部分人持有的正是这些特种枪支？ （3）文中引用的几个研究到底有多大的说服力？作者提供的研究样本是不是很充分，是不是随机抽取的，是不是涵盖了不同人群？
(2) What is the meaning of “gun holder”? Is it that the person advocating firearms regulation is trying to promote the prohibition of certain special firearms, which this group holds? (3) How convincing are the studies cited in the text? Is the sample of studies provided by the author sufficient, randomly taken and covering different groups of the population?
（4）有没有什么枪支管制的潜在好处文中没有提及？有没有和作者观点相左的重要研究成果作者掠过不提？
(4) Are there any missing references to the potential benefits of firearms control? Have any authors of important research studies that differ from the views of authors failed to mention them?
（5）每年有多少人死在手枪之下，而实行手枪管制的话这下人可能根本就不会枉死？
(5) How many people die every year under pistol control, and this person may not be killed at all if it is controlled by pistols?
建立批判性思维，其目的就是帮助我们了解何时提问、怎样提问才能让我们判断信什么、不信什么。
The purpose of building critical thinking is to help us understand when to ask questions and how to ask questions so that we can judge what to believe and what not to believe.
1、论题和结论是什么？?
What are the topics and conclusions?
阅读一段话，首先要找到作者的观点和结论，按照以下线索实现：
To read a phrase, it is first necessary to find the author's views and conclusions and to follow the following threads:
线索一：问问论题是什么？?
Thread One: Ask what the subject is?
线索二：寻找指示词。比如： 因此、表明、由此可知、因此可以断定、问题的实质是等
Thread two: search for instructions. For example: so, show, so you can know, so you can determine, what the essence of the problem is, etc.
线索三：在可能的位置查看以下。
Thread three: View the following at possible locations.
线索四：记住不可能作为结论的东西。? 例如：例句、数据、定义、背景资料、证据等
Thread four: Remember what is not possible as a conclusion, for example: examples, data, definitions, background information, evidence, etc.
线索五：检查一下交流的语境和作者的背景。如果文章的结论不明显，那么资料来源中可能存在的偏见和文章作者的背景就会变成特别有价值线索。
Thread five: Check the context of the communication and the author’s background. If the conclusions of the article are not clear, the possible bias in the source’s sources and the author’s background will become particularly valuable clues.
线索六：问一问“所以呢?"因为结论常常都是含蓄的，所以我们要问“所以呢？”来得到结论本身。
Thread six: Ask “So?” Because the conclusions are often implicit, so we ask “So?” to get the conclusions themselves.
2、理由是什么？只有你找到支撑结论的理由时你才能判定一个结论的价值。
2. What is the reason? You can only judge the value of a conclusion when you find a reason to support it.
3、那些词语意思不明确？只有理解了关键术语和词组的意思，你才能对一个论证进行评价。具体可以分为四步：第一，检查论题看有没有关键词；第二，在理由和结论中寻找关键词和短语；第三，留意抽象的词语或短语；第四，通过反串来判断别人怎样给特定的词或短语下不同的定义。
3; which terms mean unclear? You can evaluate a argument only if you understand the meaning of key terms and phrases. This can be divided into four steps: first, to examine whether there are keywords in the subject; secondly, to find keywords and phrases in the rationale and conclusions; thirdly, to look for abstract words or phrases; and fourthly, to judge how a particular word or phrase is defined differently by cross-links.
4、什么事价值观假设和描述性假设？
What are the value assumptions and descriptive assumptions?
所谓价值观假设是指作者隐藏的价值观倾向，认为某种相互对立的价值观众一个比另一个更重要。只有把这些价值观假设添加到推理中，他们的理由才能从逻辑上证实其结论。
The so-called value hypothesis refers to the author’s hidden tendency to value, arguing that an opposing audience of values is more important than another. Only by adding these values to reasoning can their arguments logically substantiate their conclusions.
描述性假设就是对这个世界的过去、现在或未来是什么样的想法，而你应该记得，规定性的或者说价值观假设是关于这个世界应该是什么样的那些想法。找到描述性假设的一些线索：第一，要不断思考结论和理由之前存在鸿沟；第二，需找没有明说出来的支撑起理由的那些想法；第三，将自己置于作者或是演说者的立场；第四，意识还有其他潜在的方法可以获得理由中提到的种种好处。第五，对论题进一步的学习了解。
A descriptive hypothesis is the idea of the past, present or future of the world, and you should remember that a prescriptive or value assumption is about what the world is supposed to be. Some clues to find descriptive assumptions are: first, there is a gap before the conclusions and reasons are constantly considered; second, there is a need to find ideas that have no clear reasons to support them; third, to place themselves in the position of authors or speakers; and fourth, there are other potential ways in which awareness can benefit from the reasons mentioned. Fifth, to learn more about the topic.
5、推理过程有没有谬误？
5. Is there a fallacy in the reasoning process?
三种常见的推理谬误：
Three common myths:
（1）提供的理由需要明显错误的或者让人不能接收的假设才能成立，因此使推理和结论显得毫无关系；
(1) The reasons given need to be manifestly erroneous or unacceptable in order to be valid, thus rendering the reasoning and conclusions irrelevant;
（2）把那些明明和结论无关的信息弄得好像和结论有关，以此来分散我们的注意力
(2) Disperse our attention by making it seem as if the information that has nothing to do with the conclusion.
（3）看似为结论找证据，而证据算数的前提则取决于结论本身已经成立。
(3) It would appear that evidence is sought for the conclusion, and the premise that evidence counts depends on the conclusion itself being established.
6、证据的效力如何？
6. What is the validity of the evidence?
直觉：需要查明那些依赖于直觉的断言有没有其他类型的证据来证实其结论。
Intuition: There is a need to ascertain whether there is any other type of evidence to support the conclusion of claims that rely on intuition.
个人经历：一个人的个人经历，甚至是个人经历的总和，根本不足以构成一个有代表性的经历样本，个人经历常常容易导致犯下以偏概全谬误。
Personal experience: The sum of a person's personal experience, even that of an individual, is simply not enough to constitute a representative sample of experience, which can often lead to the commission of an all-orientated fallacy.
典型案例：生动具体的典型案例诉诸于我们的情感，更容易分散我们的注意力，让我们不再纠缠于他们作为证据的价值，因此要当心那些引人注目的典型案例被人用作证明。
Paradigms: By resorting to our emotions in vivid and specific cases, it is easier to divert our attention away from their value as evidence and therefore to be careful that those striking examples are used to prove them.
专家意见：我们应该记住的是专家也会常常犯错误，这提醒我们要避免犯诉诸权威的逻辑谬误。
Expert opinion: What we should remember is that experts often make mistakes, which reminds us to avoid the logical fallacy of resorting to authority.
研究报告：当我们准备把研究报告作为证据来源，我们应该记住以下几点：（1）研究质量的差别很大；（2）研究成果常常会自行矛盾；（3）研究结果本身并不能证明结论；（4）研究人员也有他们的期望值、态度、价值观和需求，这使得他们所问的问题、研究的方法、解释研究结果的方式都烙上了偏见的印记。（5）关注数据样本的可靠性。样本的覆盖率必须要大到足以概括或是得出结论的程度、样本的随机越大越好、样本的多样性要覆盖结论的所有时间的类型。
Studies: When we are prepared to use the study as a source of evidence, we should remember the following points: (1) the quality of the study varies greatly; (2) the results of the research often contradict themselves; (3) the results of the research do not in themselves prove the conclusions; and (4) the researchers also have their expectations, attitudes, values and needs, which make the questions they ask, the methods of the study and the manner in which the results are interpreted biased. (5) Concern is expressed about the reliability of the data samples. The coverage of the samples must be large enough to summarize or draw conclusions, the size of the sample is as great as possible, and the diversity of the samples covers all the types of time of the conclusions.
7、有没有替代原因？
7. Are there alternative causes?
我们找出的任何一个单独的原因都极有可能是引起事件发生的其中一个原因，而不是唯一的原因，如果持论者不能考虑各种原因的复杂性，就容易犯过度简化因果关系谬误。
It is highly probable that any single cause that we have identified is one of the causes of the incident, not the only one, and that it is easy to oversimplify the fallacy of causality if commentators fail to take account of the complexity of the various causes.
8、数据有没有欺骗性？
8. Are the data deceptive?
以平均值为例，才有不同的平均数会呈现不同的表达效果
Using averages as an example, different averages have different expression effects.
平均数：把所有数值相加然后用总数除以相加的数值个数
Average: Number of values added to all values then divided by totals
中位数：将所有数值从高到低排列然后找到位于最中间的数值
Median: Arrange all values from high to low and find the values in the middle
众数：计算不同数值出现的次数然后找出出现频率最高的数值
Crowd: calculates the number of occurrences of different values and then finds the highest frequency of occurrence
此外，遇到平均数时，还需要了解全距和数值分布，有可能你会发现大多数人或事并不正好符合平均值，与平均值差异极大的结果也在意料之中。
In addition, when averages are encountered, full range and numerical distribution need to be understood, and it may be that most people or events do not coincide with averages, and the results that differ significantly from averages are not expected.
9、有什么重要信息被省略了？
9. What important information has been omitted?
遗漏掉的定义、价值观偏向或是视角、实施来源的可靠性证明、数据、图表的完整性、省略掉的结果等等
Missing definitions, value bias or perspective, reliability certificates from implementing sources, data, integrity of graphs, omitted results, etc.
10、能得出那些合理的结论？
10, what are the reasonable conclusions?
结论只有在某人对理由的含义进行特定的解读或者假设之后才能打出来，一套理由中有可能推断出多个备选结论。
Conclusions can be reached only after a particular interpretation or assumption of the meaning of the ground has been made, and several alternative conclusions may be inferred from a set of grounds.
? ? 当别人告诉你比特币有价值的时候，你首先要证实的问题是比特币有投资价值，这种投资价值要有逻辑支撑，搜寻以下理由可以运用批判性思维进行提问。
♪ When people tell you that bitcoin is valuable, the first thing you have to prove is that bitcoin has an investment value that is logically supported by the following reasons for using critical thinking to ask questions.
（1）比特币的稀缺性。黄金的稀缺性主要取决于是否有新的可采金矿，这是高度不确定的，而比特币的稀缺性是比特币发行时规则所限，其总量只有2100万枚，100年不变，其稀缺性远好于黄金。
(1) Bitcoin's scarcity. The scarcity of gold depends largely on the existence of new gold mining, which is highly uncertain, while Bitcoin's scarcity is limited by the rules of Bitcoin when it is issued, with a total of only 21 million units, which remain unchanged for 100 years, and is much more scarce than gold.
提问：具有稀缺性就一定会升值吗？
Question: Is it certain that it will appreciate if it is scarce?
（2）比特币的应用价值。没有国家信誉和硬通货做背书的虚拟货币的价值主要取决于它的用途。目前，比特币的主要用途不是支付，而是洗钱和在不能够自由兑换的国家帮助兑换 货币，所有流通的比特币的价值取决于这两个市场的规模（摘抄自吴军硅谷来信）。
(2) Bitcoin application value. The value of a virtual currency that does not have national credibility and hard currency endorsement depends largely on its use. Currently, the main use of Bitcoin is not payment, but money-laundering and facilitating the conversion of currencies in countries that cannot be freely convertible. The value of all currency in circulation depends on the size of these two markets (extracted from the Silicon Valley letter of the Wu Army).
提问：作为基于区块链技术的去中心化的数字货币，可以实现点对点的货币交易，部分国家已经承认了比特币的合法地位，未来有可能延伸到金融、商业等具体应用，而不仅限于洗钱和不能自由兑换货币国家的应用。
Question: As decentralized digital currencies based on block chain technology, point-to-point currency transactions can be achieved, and some countries have recognized the legal status of bitcoins and may extend in the future to specific applications such as finance, commerce and not only money-laundering and non-convertible countries.
（3）比特币作为数字货币的第一名，本身就是一种信用背书，只要经济持续发展，比特币就具有长远的投资价值。
(3) Bitcoin, as the number one currency, is in itself a credit endorsement and has a long-term investment value as long as the economy continues to develop.
提问：比特币最大的缺点是不和任何应用相关，无法被应用到更多领域中，这是否在一定程度上限制比特币的长远价值?
Question: Does the biggest disadvantage of Bitcoin, which is not relevant to any application and cannot be applied to more areas, limit to some extent the long-term value of Bitcoin?
注：以上分析仅作为批判性思维运用案例分析，布构成任何投资建议。
Note: The above analysis is used only as a case study for critical thinking and constitutes any investment recommendation.
? ? ? 批判性思维作为我们认知世界的工具，通过日常生活学习的不断运用，一方面通过不断地学习提高自我认知水平，提高知识积累；另一方面要通过有意识的刻意练习，养成批判性思维的思考习惯。当你具备批判性思维的武器，它会成为你最忠实的朋友。
Critical thinking, as a tool of our knowledge of the world, through the constant use of learning in everyday life, increases the level of self-awareness and knowledge accumulation, on the one hand, through continuous learning, and, on the other, through conscious and deliberate practice, creates a critical thinking habit. When you have the weapon of critical thinking, it becomes your most loyal friend.
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