最强防爆仓指南,以OKEx为例教你了解真正的合约法则

资讯 2024-07-14 阅读:67 评论:0
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那么为什么在计算盈亏时要使用标记价格呢?标记价格的计算如下所示:

then why do you use the mark price in calculating the profit or loss? The mark price is calculated as follows:

标记价格=现货价格指数+基差移动平均值

Marked price = spot price index + moving average base spread

现货价格指数=多家交易所现货价格的加权平均

spot price index = weighted average of spot prices on multiple exchanges

基差移动平均值=MA(合约中间价 - 现货指数价格)

base spread moving average = MA (contract intermediate - spot index price)

=MA((合约卖一价 + 合约买一价)/2 - 现货指数价格)

= MA((contract one price + contract one price)/2 - spot index price)

其中,现货价格指数采用多家交易所现货价格的加权平均,这样可防止单家交易所价格剧烈波动对合约价格造成的冲击。在合约价格与现货价格的基差方面,进行了加权移动平均处理,平滑了基差的波动。因此采用标记价格可有效减少“插针”现象的出现。

In , the spot price index uses a weighted average of spot prices on multiple exchanges, so as to prevent the impact on contract prices of the high volatility of single exchange prices. In terms of base differences between contract and spot prices, the weighted moving average is treated as a smoothing of base differences. As a result, the use of labeled prices can effectively reduce the occurrence of the “pin” phenomenon.

(2)合约面值

(2) contract face value

在合约设计上,OKEx使用的是反向合约设计,即面值以美元标记,以BTC结算。所以我们看到合约的面值是100美元、10美元、1美元等,但在结算时看到的都是BTC计价。这与传统市场的数字货币合约有着明显的区别,以芝加哥商品期货交易所(CME)的比特币合约为例,它采用的是正向合约,即面值以BTC标记,再以美元结算。

In the design of the contract, OKEx uses a reverse contract design, i.e., the face value is marked in United States dollars and settled in BTC. So we see the face value of the contract is $100, $10, $1, etc., but at the time of settlement it is all marked by BTC. This is a clear difference from the traditional market digital currency contract, for example, the Bitcoin contract of the Chicago Commodity Futures Exchange (CME), which uses a positive contract, i.e. the face value is marked in BTC and then settled in United States dollars.

假设在1BTC为10000美元的时候,我们需要购买5个BTC,也就是50000美元的合约,采用2倍杠杆,那么在CME上我们需要购买面值5BTC的合约,支付2,5000美元;而在OKEx平台上,则是购买500份面值100美元的合约,支付2.5个BTC。

那么正向合约与反向合约的差异对交易有影响吗?事实上,并不影响投资者最终的收益结果。

Does the difference between what's going on and what's going on in reverse contracts have an impact on the transaction? In fact, it does not affect the ultimate return of the investor.

在正向合约中,合约面值以BTC标记,标记价格采用美元计价(如10000美元/BTC),并且最终以美元结算,所以按照美元计算收益率,正向合约的收益曲线为线性的;在反向合约中,合约面值以美元标记,标记价格采用美元计价,但最终以BTC结算,所以在结算时计算收益率必须使用标记价格的倒数(比如0.0001 BTC/美元),所以按照BTC来计价反向合约的收益曲线是非线性的,但是换算为美元价格后,与正向合约的收益一致。

In the case of , where the contract face value is marked by BTC and the price is marked in United States dollars (e.g., $10,000/BTC) and is ultimately settled in United States dollars, the yield curve is linear in dollar terms; in the case of reverse contracts, the contract face value is marked in United States dollars and the price of the mark is marked in United States dollars, but is ultimately settled in BTC, so the return rate must be calculated using the reverse price at the time of settlement (e.g., 0.0001 BTC/US$), so that the yield curve is nonlinear according to BTC, but is consistent with the return on the contract after conversion to the dollar price.

具体如下表,正向合约与反向合约由于计算收益的单位不同,所呈现的收益率曲线不同。但是将反向合约最终换算为美元单位时,两者收益并无任何区别。

2. 交易

2. Transactions

在理解了合约的关键要素后,我们终于可以开始进行交易了。在OKEx交易界面的右上角,我们能看到以下三个按钮。

After understanding the key elements of the contract, we can finally start a deal. At the top right corner of the OKEx interface, we can see the following three buttons.

(1)交易模式选择

(1) trading mode selection

在OKEx上有两种交易模式,分别是全仓模式和逐仓模式。两者间的主要区别为,全仓模式下,所有仓位共用保证金,不同仓位的盈亏可以互相抵消;逐仓模式下,各仓位的风险与收益独立,各仓位的保证金与盈亏均单独核算。采用全仓模式,所有仓位共用保证金,意味着每个仓位的保证金都更加充裕,用户还能够将一部分持仓的收益来抵消另一部分持仓的亏损,降低亏损账户爆仓的可能性,但是也可能面临所有仓位在消耗掉所有保证金时一起爆仓的风险。所以,在交易模式的选择上非常重要,需要根据具体的投资策略来确定。一般来说,对于专业投资者而言,如果做对冲交易,采用全仓模式更加有利。

There are two trading models in OKEx. The main difference between the two is that, under the full warehouse model, all warehouse deposits are shared and the gains and losses of different warehouse positions are offset by each other; under the warehouse-by-ware model, the risks and gains of each warehouse are independently accounted for separately. Using the full warehouse model, the share of all warehouse deposits means that each warehouse is more adequate, and users are able to offset the losses of the other warehouse and reduce the likelihood of a loss account crash, but may also face the risk that all warehouse seats will burst together when all security deposits are consumed. So, the choice of the trading model is important and needs to be determined in the light of specific investment strategies. In general, for professional investors, the full warehouse model is more advantageous if hedged.

(2)杠杆的选择

(2) Leveraging Options

相比于数字货币的现货交易,合约交易的一大好处是可以加杠杆,但合约交易的杠杆在增加收益的同时,也增加了爆仓风险。因此,如何选择杠杆倍数是做合约交易的关键。为此,我们必须了解OKEx平台的保证金和强平制度,具体如下表所示。

One of the benefits of a contract transaction is leverage compared to a spot transaction in a digital currency, but leverage of a contract transaction increases the risk of a blowout while increasing revenue. So, how to choose a multiple leverage is the key to a contract transaction. To do this, we need to understand the OKEx platform's bond and a strong equity system, as shown in the table below.

我们以逐仓交易模式为例,根据OKEx的保证金率计算公式,我们可以化简得到如下计算公式:

通过爆仓线的公式,我们即可画出一条价格涨跌幅与杠杆倍数之间关系的曲线,如下图是在0.05%的维持保证金率下的价格涨跌幅与杠杆倍数关系曲线,在特定的杠杠倍数下,多方的价格跌幅在曲线上方,说明多方不会爆仓;空方的价格涨幅在曲线下方,说明空方不会爆仓,因此多空双方曲线的内部空间即代表安全区域。

从上图可以看出,取15倍杠杆以上后爆仓的风险就会激增,此时合约价格波动5%左右就会发生爆仓。因此我们主要分析15倍杠杆内的情况,具体如下所示。

As can be seen from the chart above, the risk of a 15-fold leverage explosion will increase, when the contract price fluctuates by about 5%. So we're mainly looking at the 15-fold leverage situation, as shown below.

注:1倍杠杆做空时价格无限上涨也不会爆仓

为了合理地平衡收益与风险之间的关系,使得收益最大化的同时保证风险最小化,最佳策略即:在交易时期内,根据历史数据预期未来合约价格的涨跌幅区间,并在图中选择在上图曲线左侧的最大杠杆倍数。

在专业的投资团队内,一般会根据历史数据计算出相应的涨跌幅概率,从而获取在相应显著性水平下的置信区间。如下图是OKex平台上近两个月BTC季度合约价格日涨跌幅分布图。为了方便起见,我们直接取历史数据中的最大值和最小值做为未来合约价格涨跌幅的估计区间,即预测未来一天内价格的变化区间在[-9.76%,12.02%]内,带入上爆仓线公式可得,为了有效防御未来一天内的爆仓风险,做多合约可选择的最大杠杆倍数为9.19,做空合约可选择的最大杠杆倍数为9.28,取整数后可知我们能选择的最大杠杆倍数为9倍。

Within a professional investment team,

当然,我们在估计未来一天的价格涨跌幅时,参考的是最近60天历史价格数据,但未来仍然会发生“黑天鹅事件”,因此上述策略并不总是有效。并且,交易者在实际操作中,通常需要预测未来至少一周的涨跌幅上下限,因此用户在实际操作时最好选择倍数更低的杠杆。

(3)开仓与止盈止损

(3) opening and closing loss

在确定了交易模式和杠杆倍数后,我们还需要确定市场的趋势,从而选择做多还是做空,并设置相应的止盈和止损点。

尽管目前市场上有各种技术分析流派来判断合约价格的未来走势情况,但各种技术指标都有一定的局限性。相信每个人对技术分析工具的选择、分析策略都不同,因此在市场趋势判断上本文就不展开。

但需要强调的是一定要设置止盈止损线,数字货币合约市场的风险远远高于现货市场。在现货市场上即使出现亏损用户还拥有账户内剩余的残值,但在合约市场上一旦爆仓就意味着资金全无,因此一定要设置止盈止损点。

, however, it is important to have a cut-off line in place, and the risk in the digital currency contract market is much higher than in the spot market. Even if there are losses in the spot market, the residual value of the account is held by the user, but once there is a bust in the contract market, it means that there is no money, so there must be a cut-off point.

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