比特币价格难以重回64,000美元的3个原因

比特币动荡的一周仍在继续，数据显示 BTC 价格将进一步下跌。

The week of Bitcoin's turmoil is continuing, and the data show that BTC prices are going to fall further.

比特币 BTC 跌至 64,012 美元

BitcoinBTC down to $64,012

6 月 21 日，比特币价格一个多月来首次跌破 64,000 美元。Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示，BTC 从开盘价 64,840 美元跌至盘中低点 63,451 美元。

On June 21, Bitcoin prices fell by $64,000 for the first time in more than a month. Data from Cointegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that BTC fell from opening prices of $64,840 to a low of $63,451 in the middle of the plate.

比特币价格上次跌破 64,000 美元是在 5 月 15 日，当时比特币价格从 61,299 美元的低点上涨至 5 月 21 日创下的 71,980 美元的高点，受现货以太币 (ETH) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获批的刺激。

The last time the Bitcoin price fell by $64,000 was on May 15, when the Bitcoin price rose from a low of $61,299 to a high of $71,980 created in May 21 and was stimulated by the approval of the ETH Exchange Trading Fund (ETF).

截至本文发稿时，市值最大的加密货币交易价格为 63,552 美元，过去 24 小时内下跌 3.54%。

At the time of submission of this paper, the price of the largest encrypt currency transaction was $63,552, a decline of 3.54 per cent over the last 24 hours.

同期，更广泛的加密货币市值也下跌 3.24%，至 2.33 万亿美元，而以太币 ETH 下跌 2.25%，至 3,475 美元。

During the same period, the market value of the wider encrypt currency also fell by 3.24 per cent to $2.33 trillion, while ETH fell by 2.25 per cent to $3,475.

让我们来看看比特币在市场调整中领先市场的一些原因。

Let us look at some of the reasons why bitcoin leads the market in the restructuring of the market.

现货比特币 ETF 大出血打压 BTC 价格

Current bitcoin ETF BTC price

投资者的避险情绪在现货比特币 ETF 中显而易见，投资者几天来一直在撤出资金。

Investors' sense of risk avoidance is evident in the spot bitcoin ETF, where investors have been withdrawing their funds for several days.

6 月 19 日，美国现货比特币 ETF 连续第五天出现资金流出，当周总资金流出量达到 9 亿美元。这是自 4 月底以来的最高流出活动。

On June 19, for the fifth consecutive day, the United States current bitcoin E.T.F. showed a financial outflow, which reached a total of $900 million a week. This is the highest outflow since the end of April.

根据加密货币研究平台 SoSoValue 的数据，6 月 20 日，10 只上市 ETF 亏损约 1.4 亿美元。

According to data from the Encrypted Money Research Platform SoValue, on June 20,10 only listed ETF losses were about US$ 140 million.

自 1 月 10 日转换为 ETF 以来，Grayscale 的 GBTC 资金流出量居首，为 5310 万美元，其次是富达的 FBTC，为 5110 万美元。VanEck 的 ETF 报告净流出 400 万美元，而 Invesco 和 Galaxy Digital 的基金净流出 200 万美元。

Since the conversion to ETF on January 10, Grayscale's GBTC funds have been the first to flow $5.3 million, followed by FBTC in Fuda at $51.1 million. The ETF report for VanEck reports a net outflow of $4 million, while Invesco and Galaxy Digital's funds a net outflow of $2 million.

按资产持有量计算，贝莱德的 IBIT 是最大的 ETF，是唯一净流入量达 150 万美元的产品。ARK Invest、Valkyrie、Franklin Templeton、WisdomTree 和 Hashdex 的其他基金录得零流量。

In terms of asset holdings, the IBIT of Beled is the largest ETF, the only product with a net inflow of $1.5 million.

6 月 20 日，现货比特币 ETF 的总交易量为 11.6 亿美元，低于 6 月 18 日的 17 亿美元。6 月 19 日，市场因公共假期休市。

On June 20, the total transaction volume of the spot Bitcoin ETF was $1.160 billion, down from $1.7 billion on June 18th. On June 19, the market was closed for public holidays.

网络活动下降支持比特币的下行

Network activity drops to support Bitcoin's downside.

比特币价格继续下跌的另一个原因可能是由于网络活动减少导致需求减少。

Another reason for the continued decline in Bitcoin prices may be reduced demand due to reduced network activity.

Glassnode 的数据显示，比特币网络上的每日活跃地址已从 4 月 4 日的 971,789 个地址下降到 6 月 20 日的 632,620 个。这标志着过去 90 天内下降了 35%。

Glasnode data show that the daily active address on the Bitcoin network fell from 971,789 on April 4 to 632,620 on June 20. This represents a 35 per cent decline in the last 90 days.

著名分析师 Ali Martinez 也观察到了比特币区块链活动减少的情况。他在 6 月 21 日 X 社交网络上的一篇帖子中分享了一张 Glassnode 图表，显示比特币交易所流入量在过去三个月中一直呈下降趋势。

A well-known analyst, Ali Martinez, also observed a decline in Bitcoin block chain activity. He shared a Glasnode chart in a post on X social networking on June 21, showing a downward trend in Bitcoin exchange inflows over the past three months.

“比特币正在经历与交易所相关的链上活动的下滑，这表明投资者对 BTC 的兴趣下降，网络使用量减少。”

“Bitcoin is experiencing a decline in exchange-related chain activity, which indicates a decline in investor interest in BTC and in network usage.”

链上活动的减少表明生态系统中对 BTC 的需求正在减弱，这拖累了其价格。

The decline in chain activity indicates that the demand for BTC in the ecosystem is decreasing, which drags down its prices.

比特币价格失去关键支撑位

Bitcoin has lost its key position.

从技术角度来看，比特币今天的价格下跌是更广泛的调整的一部分，该调整始于 6 月 7 日从 72,000 美元的阻力位被拒绝之后。在此下跌期间，BTC 失去了关键支撑位，包括 50 天和 10 天指数移动平均线 (EMA)，目前分别为 66,724 美元和 66,594 美元。

From a technical point of view, today's price decline in Bitcoin is part of a broader adjustment that began after the resistance of $72,000 was rejected on 7 June. During this decline, BTC lost its key support position, including the 50-day and 10-day moving average index lines (EMA), which currently amount to $66,724 and $66,594, respectively.

200 天 EMA（64,294 美元）为比特币提供了最后一道防线。

200 days EMA (US$64,294) provided Bitcoin with the last line of defense.

截至本文发表时，BTC 价格突破了 200 日 EMA 提供的支撑，同时日交易量上涨 15%，表明抛售已经开始。

By the time of publication of this paper, BTC prices had exceeded 200 days of support provided by EMA, while the daily volume of transactions had risen by 15 per cent, indicating that the sale had started.

下行方面，关键水平值得关注 60,000 美元和 56,500 美元的波动低点。

On the downside, key levels are of concern at the low volatility of $60,000 and $56,500.