昔日牛市再起，比特币价格逼近历史最高价格。
Once again, the cattle market is approaching its highest price ever.
10月下旬以来，比特币价格显示出惊人的攀升速度，以势不可挡的劲头接连冲破价格关卡，一度站上1.8万美元，直逼1.9万美元大关。截至发稿前，比特币价格仍坚守在1.7万美元以上。
Since late October, bitcoin prices have shown an alarming rate of escalation, breaking price levels with an overwhelming force, once standing at $18,000, pushing straight to $19,000. Bitcoin prices remained at more than $17,000 as of the time of the release.
“牛市来了”成为业界的共识，与此同时比特币的关注度也在不断增长，相关词频成为热搜的常客。
“Cow City comes” as a consensus in the industry, while Bitcoin's attention is growing, and the word is often a frequent caller.
然而，当比特币币价热潮再度来临，浪潮裹挟下的众生在狂欢吗？
However, when the tide of bitcoin reappears, does the wave hold the lives of the people?
“喜忧参半”的矿工：现在1.6万美元的币价相当于去年8000美元
“喜忧参半，牛市来了肯定开心，毕竟还在挖着，想到曾经卖掉的币又难过了。”矿工阿九说。他手中的比特币在4万多人民币的时候就抛掉了。
"The cow market must have been happy to come, after all, to dig, to think of the coins that were sold again," said the miner, AX. The bitcoin in his hand was thrown away when it was more than 40,000 yuan.
比特币采用了POW（工作量证明）机制，该机制通过以每个计算机节点的计算能力(算力)来竞争记账权的竞争记账机制，来保证区块链系统的一致性和有效性。为了激励节点参与竞争记账，比特币创始人中本聪对参与竞争记账并获胜者设置了比特币奖励。比特币的整个生产过程犹如挖掘金矿获取黄金，因此被形象地称为“挖矿”。
Bitcoin uses the Pow (Credit of Work) mechanism, which guarantees the consistency and effectiveness of the block chain system by competing for bookkeeping with the computing power (calculation) of each computer node. In order to stimulate the node to participate in the competitive bookkeeping, Bitcoin’s founders set up a Bitcoin reward for those who participate and win. Bitcoin’s entire production process is like digging gold for gold and is thus imaged as “mining mining”.
由此衍生出的利益相关者有：矿机制造商、矿工、矿场和矿池等。其中，矿机制造商为比特币挖矿硬件设备生产商；矿工为购买矿机的个体挖矿者；矿场是比特币挖矿硬件设备的集合，提供托管服务，矿工需要缴纳电费；矿池则是开放的、全自动的挖矿平台。
The stakeholders that emerge from this are: manufacturers of mine machines, miners, mines and ponds, among others. The manufacturer of mine machines is a producer of bitcoin mining hardware equipment; miners are artisanal diggers who buy mine machines; the mine is a collection of bitcoin mining hardware equipment, which provides hosting services, and miners pay electric fees; and the pond is an open and fully automated mining platform.
阿九表示，很多人都曾有过币，真正能长期持有的太少了，“要生活要还贷要缴电费，只能卖”。
Kowloon said that many people had had money and that there was so little that they could hold it for a long time that they “had to pay for their lives, but only to sell it”.
一位矿业从业人员坦言，从矿工角度而言，现在的16000美元的价格其实相当于去年的8000美元。
A miner from
“现在没有减半前8000美元的收益，你想想有什么好兴奋的，对不对？并且2018年春节泡沫破了，到现在还没突破上一轮的最高点2万美元，我们兴奋度不是非常大。”他说。
"Don't you think there's anything to be excited about now that you haven't halved the $8,000 before, right? And the spring bubble broke in 2018, and yet we haven't reached the peak of $20,000 in the last round, and we're not very excited," he said.
5月，比特币迎来四年一度的减半时刻，意味着矿工挖出的每个区块中比特币奖励数量由12.5BTC下降至6.25BTC，矿机的收入也随之减半。
In May, the four-year halved time of Bitcoin meant that the number of bitcoin incentives in each block dug by miners fell from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC, thereby halving the income of the miner.
阿九像候鸟一般随着枯水期、丰水期的更替，在四川、新疆之间来回迁徙。“我在四川挖了一个丰水期，现在枯水期四川没电力了，就去新疆挖。明年丰水来临再搬回四川。”
As for migratory birds, they move back and forth between Sichuan and Xinjiang as they die, as they change. “I dug up a water boom in Sichuan, now that the water is out of power, I dig in Xinjiang. Next year, the water will move back to Sichuan.”
他的机器托管在四川，上月底丰水期结束了，10月25号开始往新疆迁徙，用新疆火电，近日才在新疆上架好。丰水期的时候考虑到枯水期电价要涨，阿九又陆续置换了功耗小一点的神马M20s矿机。
His machine was hosted in Sichuan, and at the end of last month the water-rich period ended, and on October 25 began to move to Xinjiang, using power from Xinjiang, where it was set up only recently. In view of the rising price of electricity during the water-rich period, AX replaced the less effective M20s mine.
矿机制造商：询问矿机的人增多，存量客户占多数
Miner Manufacturers: Increased number of people asking about miners and the majority of customers in stock
牛市的到来也并未影响到阿九这样的安排，他没有选择购买更多机器，也不考虑换更大算力的矿机。
Nor did the arrival of the cow market affect such an arrangement, as he did not choose to buy more machines, nor did he consider replacing miners with more arithmetic machines.
“节省开支，争取多囤点币。”阿九说。
“Saving off expenses and trying to hoard more money.” Aix says.
另外，多位矿机制造商的从业人员对澎湃新闻记者表示，近期来询问矿机的人明显变多了。
In addition, practitioners from various mine manufacturers have indicated to journalists that there has been a marked change in the number of people asking about mine machines in the recent past.
一位业内人士表示，行情好势必会让一些客户去购买矿机，但他也表示存量客户占多数。
One insider said that good intentions would inevitably allow some customers to buy mining machines, but he also indicated that the majority of clients were stocked.
另一位业内人士也指出，购买矿机的人更多还是存量客户，外部购买还是比较少，“现在外面的钱进来买机器的动力还不是那么足，基本上是存量资金在博弈。因为要算一笔账，以前买矿机大概6个月就收回成本，现在要300天，或者是一年半才能挣回买机器的本钱，收益率差很多，所以大家就没有兴趣买。”
Another insider has also pointed out that more people buy mine machines are stock customers and less external purchases, and that “money from the outside is not so powerful now, it's basically stock money in the game.” Because it's about six months before `strong', it takes 300 days, or a year and a half to get back the money from the machine, and the rate of return is so low that there is no interest in buying
两大上市的矿机巨头嘉楠科技（NASDAQ：CAN）和亿邦国际（NASDAQ：EBON）股价也并没随着比特币价格水涨船高。事实上，11月以来，嘉楠科技股价上涨超过50%，亿邦国际却下降了16%。
The shares of the two major market-listed miners, KANAQ:CAN, and the billion-state International (NASDAQ:EBON), did not rise as the price of Bitcoin rose. Indeed, since November, KANO’s share price has risen by more than 50%, while the number of billions has fallen by 16%.
矿场主：部分关闭的矿场逐渐恢复经营，但繁荣景象尚未重现
mine owners: partially closed mines gradually resume operations, but the boom has not yet resurfaced
比特币矿场经营者李波在四川、新疆拥有4个矿场，矿场装机容量10万千瓦左右。对于拥有着场地和电力资源的矿场主来说，主要利润来源在电费差上。
Bitcoin mine operator Li Bo owns four mines in Sichuan and Xinjiang, with an installed capacity of around 100,000 kW. For mine owners, the main source of profit is the poor cost of electricity.
“比如说我拿电是两毛钱一度，托管收他2.8毛一度电，这样我能赚8分钱，这就是矿场的利润。”李波说道。
"For example, when I take electricity, I take it for a second, and I take it for a second, so that I can make eight cents, that's the profits of the mine." Lebo says.
由于矿场收益较为稳定，比特币牛市的到来并未对他的生活造成太大影响，只是随着比特币币价走高，他的矿场逐渐从部分关闭恢复正常经营，“但也没恢复到去年那么繁荣的景象”。
Because of the relatively stable returns from the mine, the arrival of the Bitcoin Cattle did not have much impact on his life, except that, as the price of the bitcoin rose, his mine gradually returned to normal operations from partial closure “but did not return to the boom of last year”.
李波说：“没啥特别的想法，我们现在因为搞的时间长了，其实对涨跌不会那么兴奋。”
Li Bo said, "No special idea, we're not so excited about going up and down because we've been doing it for a long time."
对于“离开”，李波也并非没有想过。今年5月这个词曾在他脑海中频繁出现，在经历了3月12日的币价暴跌以及减半的行情下滑，他的矿场处于赔钱当中，手上的机器也在不断贬值。
Nor did Li Bo think of leaving. The word appeared frequently in his mind in May this year, after a fall in currency prices on March 12 and a fall in half, his mine was in the process of paying for it, and the machines on its hands were depreciating.
3月12日起，比特币价格出现瀑布式暴跌趋势，曾一度跌破4000美元，较2月最高价降幅超50%，很多挖矿机器跌到了关机币价，而唇齿相依的矿场也大受打击，不仅电费差收益减少，外部资金的减少导致矿场之间恶性竞争，托管费越降越低。而5月，比特币的减半对挖矿业造成雪上加霜的打击。
Since March 12, Bitcoin prices have experienced a falls in waterfalls, once down by $4,000, more than 50 per cent from the February peak, and many mining machines have fallen to shut-down rates, while mouth-to-mouth mines have also been hit hard, not only by the decline in the spread of electricity, but also by the decline in external funding, which has led to malign competition between mines, and by the decline in hosting fees. In May, the halving of Bitcoin has caused more severe damage to mining.
“比特币减半的时候对矿场和矿工是最难受的，因为比特币的产量瞬间减一半，本来挖一枚比特币需要电费3万元钱，过了减半点之后，挖掘价格瞬间变成了6万元，但是币价还在四五万元徘徊。”李波说。
“When Bitcoin was halved, it was the hardest for mines and miners, because bitcoin production was cut by half in an instant, because digging a bitcoin would have cost 30,000 dollars of electricity, and after halving, the price of digging became 60,000 dollars in an instant, but the price was still 450,000 dollars.” Li Bo said.
那时，他的矿场关闭了30%。
At that time, his mine was closed by 30 per cent.
在经历低谷期后，李波开始了战略调整，他发现，其实挖矿是一个金融行为，不是生产制造行为，将目光转向区块链项目。例如，他做了一些数字加密货币资产的管理。
After going through the valley, Li Bo began a strategic adjustment, finding out that mining was actually a financial act, not a manufacturing act, and turned his eyes to block-chain projects. For example, he managed some digitally encrypted monetary assets.
因此，在当前的牛市下，他也仍然坚持了原本的调整思路，“我们要把不好的矿场除掉，保留几个优质的矿场，回笼资金之后做一些数字货币的投资”。
Thus, under the current cattle market, he still maintains the original adjustment line, “We will eliminate the bad mines, save a few high-quality mines, and invest in some digital currency when we return the funds”.
比特币投资者："最高兴的可能是韭菜"
“最高兴的可能是韭菜，”比特币投资者小涛犀利地说，“这个跟股市是一样的，股市的话散户平时是不会亏钱的，只有牛市来的时候才亏钱。平时没行情的时候，散户一般是不会参与的，行情来的时候大家都拼命参与。”
The best thing to do is pickles, which Bitcoin investors say, "This is the same as the stock market. The stock market doesn't lose money when it comes to cattle. It usually doesn't get involved when it doesn't. Everyone does it when it comes."
小涛将自己定位为职业投资者，职业投资者的素养就是对价格的涨跌心态很好。对他而言，当前的行情下，提高风险意识是他首先需要做的。
Xiaotao identifies himself as a career investor, who has a good attitude towards price hikes and falls. For him, in his current situation, raising risk awareness is the first thing he needs to do.
实际上，在比特币价格突破1.7万美元时，火币高级分析师康律之也提醒投资者应注意风险控制。
Indeed, when the price of bitcoin passed by $17,000, the senior gun price analyst, Condoleezzi, also reminded investors of the need for risk control.
一位业内人士则指出，从技术指标上看市场处于超买状态，未来有回调的可能。
One industrialist pointed out that the market was overpurchased in terms of technical indicators and that there was a possibility of a return in the future.
小涛计划分各个时间段把持有的比特币分散开投资，“爬到半山腰以上的话，我可能把100个币就抛了50个币，另外一部分就让它涨，如果掉下来，我就再接回来，反正这部分资产就长期在里面滚动，不会拿出来。”小涛坦言，他目前仓位已经抛出30%-40%。
The Oto plan spreads its holdings of bitcoins over a period of time, “if I climb above the half-mount, I may throw 100, and the other part rises, and if I fall down, I will pick them up again, and this part of the asset will remain in it for a long time and will not come out.” Oto says, he has now dropped 30-40 per cent of his warehouse.
此前的价格暴跌对小涛而言影响也不大，那时他已经空仓了。在正常波动下，小涛会持有比特币两个月或者三个月，“因为我不做量化交易，不做高频交易，高频交易是每天都在交易。”
The previous price collapse also had a small impact on Xiaotao, when he was already empty. Under normal fluctuations, Xiaotao would hold bitcoin for two or three months, "because I don't make quantitative transactions, I don't do high-frequency transactions, HF transactions are traded every day."
币交所人士：“涨跌对交易所是常态”
exchanger: :
“近期比特币的价格一路走高，相信很多持有者的心情都是非常激动的。其实对我们这些行业里的人来说，这不是一个让人意外的事情，能到现在的涨幅一直都在我们的预期中，说明我们的坚持没有错。”Bicc币交所早期投资人王小彬说。
“The price of Bitcoin has recently gone up, and many of its holders have been very excited. Indeed, for us in these industries, this is not a surprise, and the upswing to this point has always been in our expectations, indicating that our insistence is not wrong.” The early investor of the Bicc Currency Exchange, King Bing, said.
从交易所角度，王小彬指出今年散户的持币情况有了明显变化，大部分的散户至少持有0.1-1个比特币不等，“这可以说是这一阶段全新共识的形成。”
From the point of view of the exchange, Wang Xiaobing pointed out that there had been a marked change in the currency holdings of the defunct households this year, with most of them holding at least 0.1-1 bitcoins, “which could be said to have been the result of a completely new consensus at this stage”.
“全球传统金融、投资机构的介入，甚至散户持有的比特币量都在增大，这些导致了当前阶段强共识的产生，这才是价格上涨的核心因素。”王小彬说。
“The involvement of traditional global financial and investment institutions, and even the amount of bitcoins held by the diaspora, has increased, and this has led to the emergence of a strong consensus at this stage, which is at the heart of the price increase.” Wang Xiaobin says.
他认为，涨跌对于交易所来讲是常态，Bicc今年是上升形态的发展，有影响的更多是用户的心态和选择交易的策略会有所不同。
In his view, rising and falling were the norm for the exchange, and Bicc was an upward trend this year, with more influence on users'mindsets and strategies for choosing transactions.
比特币价格还会涨吗？
Will the price of bitcoin still rise?
李波希望春节前比特币能突破2万美元。
Leopold hopes that by Springtime bitcoin will break 20,000 dollars.
“整体来说，今年的价格都是上涨的趋势，价格在不断冲击前高，近期可能会走进震荡区间，今年的价格有机会冲刺2万美金，短期来说会是一个新高，但是对于明年的大牛来说仅仅是个开始。”王小彬说。
“On the whole, this year's prices are on the rise, they are high before the shock, they are likely to go into the tremors in the near future, and this year's prices, with the opportunity to hit $20,000, will be a new high in the short term, but for next year's cattle, they will be only the beginning.” Wang Xiaobin says.
“长期看是一直往上涨，10年之内。”小涛则提出了更长远的预测。
“In the long run, it's going up, and within 10 years.” Koto, for its part, provides longer-term projections.
他认为，近期想要收益，没以前那么多了，“从收益角度可能会稍微弱化一点，但是拿来作为避险资产的话还是可以的，但中途会有大起大落。”
In his view, there might be a slight weakening from the point of view of the proceeds in the near future, but it would be possible to use them as a risk-free asset, but there would be a huge drop in the way.
而对于矿工阿九而言，这甚至并不能算是个问题，这是“老矿工的信仰”。
This is not even a problem for miner A.I., which is “the faith of the old miner”.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论