随着新机构投资者持续入场，比特币涨势正变得不可收拾。
As new institutional investors continue to enter, the surge in Bitcoin is becoming unmanageable.
截至12月17日19时30分，比特币兑美元报价触及22675美元/个，盘中一度创下历史新高22697.5美元/个，过去两天累计涨幅超过18%。
As at 1930 hours on 17 December, the price of Bitcoin to the United States dollar had reached $22675 per person, a record high of $22697.5 per person, with a cumulative increase of over 18 per cent over the past two days.
“这背后，是资产管理规模高达约273亿美元的英国投资机构Ruffer Investment Management决定将2.5%资产组合配置比特币，大幅提振市场买涨人气。”一位加密数字货币投资基金负责人向记者透露。加之美国保险公司万通互惠理财（Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance）宣布旗下投资基金将购入1亿美元比特币，正令整个比特币市场彻底进入新的击鼓传花式买涨套利模式——越来越多个人投资者与对冲基金纷纷抢先买入比特币，等到新机构投资者入场接盘再高价抛售获利。
“Behind this is the decision by the UK investment agency, Ruffer Investment Management, to allocate 2.5% of its asset portfolio to Bitcoin, which greatly boosts market buying.” An encrypted digital investment fund manager revealed to journalists. Plus the announcement by the US insurance company Massachusetts Mutual Life Investment that the investment fund under the banner will buy $100 million in bitcoins, is bringing the entire Bitcoin market into a new pro-fashion scheme – an increasing number of individual investors and hedge funds buying bitcoins before selling them at higher prices until new institutional investors come in.
在他看来，不少追涨者已意识到，当前买入比特币的新机构投资者正日益多元化，2个月前主要是对冲基金与科技机构在买涨比特币，如今越来越多保险机构与养老基金正在入场，令击鼓传花式买涨套利博弈拥有更高的收益预期。
In his view, many of the upswingers had realized that investors in new institutions currently buying bitcoin were becoming more diversified, with hedge funds buying bitcoins two months earlier, and science and technology institutions buying bitcoins.
12月15日，美国银行对基金经理进行的全球基金经理调查发现，受访基金经理认为当前排名前三的热门交易，分别是做多科技股、做空美元与做多比特币。
On 15 December, a survey of Global Fund managers conducted by the Bank of the United States of America to fund managers found that the Fund managers interviewed considered the current top three high-profile transactions to be multi-tech units, empty dollars and dobitcoin.
加密市场数据提供商CryptoCompare首席执行官查尔斯·海特坦言，当前比特币持续飙涨，是不同类型资产管理公司都将比特币纳入投资组合所产生的多米诺效应。
Charles Hayt, Chief Executive Officer of CryptoCompare, an encrypted market data provider, said that the current surge in bitcoin was the domino effect of the inclusion of bitcoins in the portfolio by different types of asset management companies.
不过，随着比特币持续走高，越来越多持币者纷纷选择获利离场。
However, as Bitcoin continued to rise, a growing number of currency holders had chosen to leave for profit.
“显然，不少持币者正担心比特币很可能高处不胜寒，因为来自欧美金融监管部门的从严监管，很可能令比特币价格波动性骤然加大，目前逢高落袋为安或许是最佳的选择。”上述加密数字货币投资基金负责人向记者指出。
“It is clear that a number of currency holders are worried that bitcoin is likely to be high and cold, because tight regulation from the European and United States financial regulators is likely to increase the price volatility of bitcoin dramatically, and it may be the best option at this point in time.” The head of the crypto-digital money investment fund pointed out to journalists.
新机构入场带来击鼓传花式买涨套利潮
The new agency's coming in with a boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom, boom-boom.
多位华尔街对冲基金经理向记者透露，本周以来，比特币投资俨然成为对冲基金界讨论频率最高的词汇之一。
Several Wall Street hedge fund managers told journalists that Bitcoin investments have become one of the most frequently discussed terms in the hedge fund community since this week.
究其原因，各大机构投资者都在纷纷入场配置比特币。两个月前，参与比特币投资的机构投资者主要是保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）、斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）等知名对冲基金大佬旗下的基金产品，以及Square与MicroStrategy等科技公司。如今，保险公司、大型家族办公室、公募基金都在悄悄涉足比特币投资，并将它视为比黄金更具抗通胀效应的资产类别。尤其是随着欧美央行正计划加大货币宽松力度导致通胀预期骤然升温，他们正迅速将原先配置黄金的部分资金转投比特币。
Two months ago, institutional investors involved in Bitcoin investments were mainly Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, among other well-known hedge funds, and technology companies such as Square and MicroStrategy. Insurance companies, large family offices, and public funds are now sneaking up on Bitcoins, treating them as asset classes that are more anti-inflationary than gold.
“不过，英国投资机构Ruffer Investment Management带来的市场买涨人气显然最大。”一位华尔街对冲基金经理向记者直言。12月16日晚，当Ruffer Investment Management宣布将2.5%投资组合投向比特币时，金融市场起初还以为2.5%投资组合对应的是Ruffer Investment Management旗下一只规模约在6亿美元的多策略对冲基金子产品。
“It is clear, however, that the biggest market buy-in comes from the British investment agency Ruffer Investment Management.” A Wall Street hedge fund manager spoke to journalists. On the night of December 16, when Ruffer Investment Management announced that it would invest 2.5% of its portfolio to Bitcoin, financial markets initially thought that 2.5% of its portfolio corresponded to a multi-strategy hedge fund product of about $600 million under the Ruffer Investment Management flag.
当Ruffer投资基金发言人对此做出澄清，直言2.5%投资组合对应的是275亿美元总资产，并已在11月底完成7.45亿美元的比特币投资配置时，整个加密数字货币市场买涨人气骤然沸腾。
When the spokesperson for the Ruffer Investment Fund clarified that the 2.5 per cent portfolio corresponded to total assets of $27.5 billion, and the investment allocation of $745 million in bitcoins had been completed by the end of November, the entire market for encrypted digital money had stagnated.
“从12月16日晚起，各类对冲基金与散户投资者都在涌入比特币市场，其买涨力度远远超过以往，导致过去48个小时比特币涨幅持续扩大至逾18%，几乎每小时都在迭创历史新高。”一位加密数字货币交易所人士向记者透露。甚至部分对冲基金直接动用6-8倍资金杠杆押注比特币价格持续创新高。究其原因，10月以来整个比特币市场似乎进入新的买涨套利模式——只要市场传闻有大型机构投资者入场，就会带动比特币掀起一波涨势，因此越来越多投资者变得更加大胆，Ruffer Investment Management买入比特币仅仅是他们更加激进推高比特币获利的“催化剂”。
“From the evening of December 16, various hedge funds and bulk investors have been pouring into the Bitcoin market at a much higher level than ever before, leading to a sustained increase in bitcoin for the last 48 hours to more than 18 per cent, almost every hour of history.” An encrypted digital currency exchange revealed to journalists that even part of the hedge fund directly leverages six to eight times the price of bitcoins at a constant innovation. For the reason, since October, the entire bitcoin market appears to have entered a new buying arbitrage model – as long as there are market rumours that large institutional investors have entered the market, leading to a surge in bitcoins, and therefore more and more investors have become bolder, and Ruffer Investment Management buying bitco is simply a “cat” that they are more aggressive in pushing up bitcoins.
摩根大通策略分析师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou发布最新报告指出，随着越来越多机构投资者入场，当前投资比特币的主要机构，正从家族办公室、对冲基金逐渐转向保险公司与养老基金等，尽管保险公司与养老基金不太可能对比特币进行过高配置，但只要他们动用小量资金入市，也可能对比特币估值造成重大影响。
According to a recent report issued by Morgan Chase strategic analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, as more and more institutional investors enter the market, the main institutions currently investing in Bitcoin are gradually shifting from family offices, hedge funds, etc., to insurance companies and pension funds. While insurance companies and pension funds are unlikely to be overstretched in bitcoin, they may also have a significant impact on the value of bitcoin as long as they use small amounts to market.
“这无形间助长当前比特币市场的击鼓传花式买涨套利浪潮。”上述加密数字货币交易所人士向记者直言。他发现不少追涨者未必冲着比特币的抗通胀效应而来，而是押注新投资机构入场高价接盘，令自身从容获利离场。
“This invisibility fuels the current wave of ceremonial arbitrage in the Bitcoin market.” The above-mentioned cryptic digital money exchanges speak out to journalists. He finds that many of the upswingers do not necessarily respond to the anti-inflationary effects of Bitcoin, but rather bet on the arrival of new investment agencies, leaving them to profit from their appearance.
这些追涨者的获利算盘并不复杂——即便西方发达国家养老基金与保险公司仅仅将1%资产投向比特币，也能产生约6000亿美元的比特币买盘需求，足以创造巨大的买涨获利空间。
The profit margin for these uptakers is not complex — even if only 1 per cent of the assets of pension funds and insurance companies in Western developed countries were to be invested in bitcoin, it would generate a demand for about $600 billion in bitcoins, which would create a huge margin for profit.
持币者担心强监管加速降临获利离场
Moneyholders are worried that strong regulation will accelerate the release of profits.
随着比特币价格持续走高，越来越多持币者反而担心比特币可能高处不胜寒，转而逢高抛售获利离场。
As the price of bitcoin continues to rise, a growing number of currencyholders fear that bitcoin may be higher than the cold, turning to high-sale profits.
“这两天我们发现此前买涨比特币的部分对冲基金与家族办公室正转而抛售比特币锁定利润。”前述加密数字货币投资基金负责人告诉记者。这背后，是他们认为新机构入场所带来的击鼓传花式买涨套利潮未必会持续很久。
“These two days, we discovered that some of the hedge funds and family offices that had purchased higher bitcoin were selling bitcoin to lock-in profits.” The head of the pre-encrypted digital money investment fund told journalists. Behind that, they did not think that the sensational boom in the new agency’s entry would necessarily last for a long time.
尤其是12月初七国集团（G7）财政部长与中央银行行长举行会议，对监管数字货币的必要性持强烈支持态度，令他们担心此举可能将令欧美金融监管部门加快出台针对加密数字货币的从严监管措施，导致比特币价格大幅回调的几率骤增。
In particular, the Group of Seven (G7) Finance Ministers, meeting with the Governor of the Central Bank in early December, strongly supported the need to regulate digital currencies, fearing that this might prompt European and United States financial regulators to speed up the introduction of stringent regulatory measures against encrypted digital currencies, leading to a sharp increase in the chances of a sharp reversal of bitcoin prices.
德国财政部长奥拉夫·舒尔茨（Olaf Scholz）明确表示，在未充分解决监管风险的情况下，德国与欧洲不能也不该允许数字货币进入市场。此前相关部门会采取一切可能的措施，确保货币主导权始终掌握在国家手里。
German finance minister Olaf Scholz has made it clear that Germany and Europe cannot and should not allow digital money to enter the market without adequately addressing regulatory risks. Previously, the relevant sectors would take all possible measures to ensure that currency dominance remains in the hands of the state.
“其实，不少持币者仍对11月底市场传闻美国财政部拟出台新监管措施监控数字货币交易心有余悸。因此他们担心比特币价格持续走高，正令金融强监管降临的时间随之提前。”多位比特币投资者向记者指出。当时市场突然传闻美国财政部拟出台新的监管措施，将跟踪加密货币钱包的所有者与各类交易者信息，令比特币一度大跌逾13%。
“In fact, a number of currency-holders have been overstretched by market rumours at the end of November that the US Treasury is about to introduce new regulatory measures to monitor digital currency transactions. As a result, they fear that the price of bitcoins continues to rise, and that it is about to push financial discipline ahead.”
在业内人士看来，这项正在酝酿的新监管措施有助于遏制某些不法分子利用加密货币进行洗钱或资金违规跨境转移。不过，它也很大程度破坏加密货币的核心原则——私有的加密货币不受骚扰和跟踪。其结果是不少对监管政策敏感的持币者与对冲基金纷纷赶在监管措施出台前，抛售比特币获利了结。
In the eyes of industry, this new regulatory measure, which is under development, has helped to deter certain outlaws from using encrypted money for money-laundering or illicit cross-border transfers. However, it has also largely undermined the core principle of encrypted money – private, encrypted money free from harassment and stalking.
记者多方了解到，随着机构投资者持续入场，目前比特币的定价话语权正悄然转至华尔街大型投资机构手里。有机构初步估算，当前华尔街投资机构掌握比特币供应量的约50%，这意味着他们可以轻松“左右”比特币供需关系以影响其价格走势获利。
Journalists have learned that, as institutional investors continue to enter, bitcoin’s pricing voice is now passing to large Wall Street investment agencies. There are preliminary estimates that Wall Street investment agencies now own about 50% of Bitcoin supply, which means that they can easily “go around” bitcoin supply and demand relationships to influence their price movements.
“现在，我们不建议个人投资者继续入场参与加密数字货币交易，因为市场的博弈规则正在悄然改变——现在，众多对冲基金与个人投资者正大举押注新机构投资者入场高位接盘获利，但是，一旦新机构投资者拥有足够的比特币筹码，就能反过来狙击对冲基金与个人投资者牟利。”这位加密数字货币投资基金负责人指出。何况，新入场的机构投资者绝不会甘愿成为“最后的买单者”，他们正在比特币期货等衍生品市场买入大量沽空头寸对持仓进行风险对冲——若比特币大幅高位回落，他们很可能是最大的受益者。
“Now, we do not recommend that individual investors continue to enter into encrypted digital currency transactions, because market playing rules are slowly changing — now, many hedge funds and individual investors are betting heavily on new institutional investors for the benefit of the high-level interface, but once new institutional investors have enough bitcoin chips, they can in turn snipe hedge funds for the benefit of individual investors.” The head of the encrypted digital monetary investment fund pointed out that, moreover, new incoming institutional investors would never be willing to become “last buyers” and that they are buying large amounts of empty positions in derivative markets, such as Bitcoin futures, to hedge the risk of holding warehouses — and that they are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries if the currency returns significantly higher.
（编辑：包芳鸣）
(Edit: Bao Fing)
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