本文来自微信公众号：风暴眼工作室 （ID：qiyanglu4hao），作者：张沃若，原文标题：《风暴眼|“虚拟股票”两周即下线，股价腰斩的奈雪真“急了”》，头图来自：视觉中国
2019年，在奈雪的茶入选“中国茶饮十大品牌”后，创始人彭心接受了一系列媒体采访，将她的成功经验归结为一句话——“营销不是夸自己多好，而是做了什么打动客人。” In 2019, after Naisha's tea was selected for the Chinese Ten Teas, the founder, Peng Xin, gave a series of media interviews in which she attributed her success to the words: “Marketing is not about how well she is, but about what she does to impress the guests”. 彼时称自己并不是一个产品定位的品牌，更多是一个文化定位和空间定位品牌的奈雪，开出了自己的居酒屋、联名了笑果、李宁甚至艺术家，用“一口好茶，一口软欧包”开启了整个赛道的想象。 They say they're not brands for product orientation, more for cultural and spatial positioning, and they open up their own winehouses, combined laughter, Lining and even artists, opening up the whole track with a “good cup of tea, a soft Eurobag”. 只是四年过去，奈雪的茶才思逐渐枯竭， 再难有当年那样的故事可讲。 It's only four years ago that Naisha's tea was drying up, and it's hard to tell a story like that. 一、奈雪“虚拟股票”被质疑，仅上线两周就叫停 6月30日，奈雪的茶微信公众号发文，用户每消费1元即可得1个奈雪币，使用奈雪币买入/卖出虚拟股票即可成为虚拟股东，且虚拟股票和奈雪港股真实收盘价绑定。 On 30 June, Nische's tea micro-message sent out a letter to the public stating that 而奈雪币除了可在奈雪币商城兑换礼品、代金券、打折券等，还可以加2倍、5倍、10倍杠杆。虽然其表面仍是一个会员积分活动，只不过套用了股市的框架。 In addition to exchanging gifts, coupons, coupons, and so on, Nische is twice, five times, and ten times the leverage. Although it still appears to be a member’s crediting activity, it is based on a stock market framework. 网友们对此纷纷表示，虽然面对行业增长瓶颈品牌有焦虑这事可以理解，但挂钩真实股市、允许杠杆交易甚至“押涨跌”式的网络博彩等元素，不禁让人怀疑是不是有币圈投机者下岗再就业，卖了矿机改借奶茶茬韭菜。 Internet users have expressed concern that, while it is understandable that there is anxiety in the face of industry growth bottlenecks, linking real stock markets, allowing leverage trading and even “up and down” Internet games, among other elements, raises doubts as to whether currency speculators have been laid off to re-enter the workforce and have sold mining machines for milked tea. 1. “奈雪币”本身是否涉及违法？ 上海申伦律师事务所夏海龙律师告诉凤凰网《风暴眼》，这一模式中“奈雪币”本质上属于常见的消费积分，只要“模拟炒股”仅用于娱乐、学习等非营利性质，一般而言不存在法律风险。 The law firm of Shellon in Shanghai told Phoenix Network's Storm Eyes that the `negrong' model is essentially a common consumption score, and that there is no legal risk in general as long as the `simulatory stock' is used only for non-profit purposes such as entertainment, learning, etc. 但如果允许用户转售、累积“奈雪币”以兑换高价值商品或直接提现，则会存在较大风险，整个模式便涉嫌开设赌场或非法经营。 However, if users are allowed to resell, accumulate “Neicher” in exchange for high-value goods or directly cash out, there is a greater risk that the entire model will be suspected of opening casinos or illegal operations. 中国移动通信联合会元宇宙产业委员会执行主任、中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁则表示，奈雪币源自于消费而非储值，并未和人民币进行双向兑换，也没有通过储值换积分的方式进行盈利，暂时并未触及法律红线。 In Jia Ning, Executive Director of the China Mobile Communications Federation Committee of Woncosmos Industry and co-chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, stated that 但于佳宁同时表示，奈雪币很可能出现一些法律上的争议，例如奈雪币的模式是否鼓励用户不合理消费，对场外交易是否能够严格禁止等。 At the same time, however, Janin stated that there was likely to be some legal controversy over Naishi, such as whether the Nische model encouraged unreasonable consumption by users and whether off-site transactions could be strictly prohibited. 2. 奈雪币和币圈的虚拟货币又有何差别？是否违规？ 于佳宁表示，奈雪币基于实际消费场景发行当前并不违规。 Yugyanin stated that the current distribution of Naishen on the basis of actual consumption scenes was not illegal. 因为虚拟货币是可流通、可双向与法币兑换的一种特殊商品或资产。而诸如奈雪币等网络积分，则是不可跨平台流通和个人交易或转让，不可与人民币进行双向兑换的一种企业营销产品，并不符合虚拟货币定义。 Because virtual currency is a special commodity or asset that is negotiable, two-way and convertible with French currency. And a web-based component, such as the Naishi coin, is an enterprise marketing product that cannot be traded across platforms or traded or transferred, and that cannot be exchanged with the renminbi in two-way, which does not meet the definition of virtual currency. 但仍有一些极其需要注意的地方，例如不能以储值卡充值的形式赠送网络积分“奈雪币”，否则奈雪币+虚拟股票的玩法，很容易被认为涉及网络博彩活动。 There are, however, a number of areas that require much attention, such as the fact that network credits cannot be given in the form of a stock card charge, or the way in which they are played + virtual stocks can easily be considered to be related to network gaming activities. 此外，关于“虚拟股票”和真实股票涨跌绑定，对其真实股票价格是否有影响、违不违反证券市场的相关规定的问题，于佳宁则表示，奈雪币及虚拟股票并不会触及金融管理上的法律法规。 In addition, on the question of whether the “virtual stock” and real stock rises and falls are tied to their real stock prices and do not violate the relevant provisions of the securities market, Janin said that “奈雪所谓的虚拟股票玩法仅仅是平台内部对于网络积分的一种玩法机制，在不具备双向兑换等前提下，消费者并不能通过持有奈雪的虚拟股票实现享受企业分红收益和增值收益，其带来的影响有且仅有营销活动对股票价格的刺激，但不会对任何真实股票交易产生影响。” “Nessher's so-called virtual stock game is merely a game mechanism within the platform for network credits, and without such conditions as two-way conversions, consumers are not able to benefit from corporate dividends and value-added gains through the possession of a nesche virtual stock, which has the effect of stimulating stock prices only by marketing activities, but does not affect any real stock exchange.” 不过，对于奈雪币未来是否可能违规的探讨已经没有了意义。 But there's no point in exploring the possibility of future violations of Naishen. 7月14日，奈雪的茶已公告将虚拟股票会员活动正式下线。 On 14 July, Naisha's tea was announced as the official offline of virtual stock membership activities. 公告称，活动结束后，参与活动的会员账户内的虚拟股票将按照有利于用户的原则，以1虚拟股兑换为6奈雪币的规则将虚拟股自动兑换为奈雪币，消费者仍可使用奈雪币在奈雪商城兑换礼品。 The announcement stated that, at the end of the event, the virtual shares in the member accounts of the participants would be converted automatically into Naishi, on a user-friendly basis, in accordance with the rule for the conversion of the virtual shares to N6 and that consumers would still be able to use Naishi for the exchange of gifts in Naishi. 而这场仅仅上线两周就被匆忙终止的“闹剧”背后，奈雪的茶仍有诸多要应付的问题…… And behind this farce, which ended in haste just two weeks on the line, there are still a lot of problems to deal with in Naisha's tea... 二、增收却降利，“新茶饮第一股”疲态尽显 自去年12月以来，奈雪的茶开始布局元宇宙营销，先后推出线上NFT（非同质化代币）数字艺术品、“奈雪币”，急切地想在老赛道上讲出“新故事”。 Since December of last year, Naisha's tea has begun to be marketed in the Won universe, with the introduction of NFT 拼命营销的背后，是股价与业绩一路下滑带来的现实压力。 Behind them are the real pressures of declining stock prices and performance. 1. 成本高企、股价腰斩，奈雪如何突围？ 去年6月，奈雪的茶以“新式茶饮第一股”之姿在港交所挂牌上市，但开盘即破发。此后，奈雪的股价一路下行。 Last June, Naisha's tea was placed on the market as the “first share of a new cup of tea” but the opening of the plate broke. After that, Naisha's share price went down all the way. 截至7月18日收盘，奈雪的茶每股报价6.13港元，总市值105.14亿港元，较一年前320亿港元的市值已大跌超6成。 As at 18 July, Naishi's tea was offered at a price of HK$ 613 per share, with a total market value of HK$ 10,514 million, which is over 60 per cent lower than the market value of HK$ 32 billion a year ago. 中国人民大学货币所研究员陈佳对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示，奈雪的茶股价半年腰斩的现象暗示着宏观经济下行期的微观经济模式在发生变化。这个行业本身顺周期特性非常鲜明，加上门槛不够高，当大量短期资本流入导致竞争度极高，降价就成了行业主流；再加上疫情对普通民众收入的打击，影响了喜茶类非刚需饮品的需求，供求关系内外夹击之下维持公司盈利稳定证券价格的难度会越来越高。 Chen Jia, a researcher at the Chinese People’s University’s Monetary Institute, said to Phoenix Network’s Storm Eyes that the six-month-long cut-off in Naisha’s tea share price implied a change in the microeconomic model of the downside macroeconomic period. The industry itself was characterized by a strong pro-cyclical nature, coupled with a low threshold, and that when large short-term capital inflows led to high competition, the price reduction became the mainstream of the industry; combined with the impact of the epidemic on ordinary people’s income, it affected the demand for non-required drinking products, and the difficulty of maintaining corporate profit-fixing securities prices under both supply and demand relationships would increase. 6月27日，高盛发布研报，将奈雪的茶评级由4月份的“中性”下调至“卖出”，目标价为5.4港元，报告指出，公司基本面尚未有显著改善，且短期复苏承压，对其盈利前景持谨慎态度。 On 27 June, Goldman Sachs published a study to downgrade Naisha's tea rating from “neutral” in April to “sale” with a target price of HK$ 5.4. The report states that the company's fundamentals have not improved significantly and that its short-term recovery is under pressure and cautious about its profitability prospects. 而盈利不振，是奈雪的茶始终未能解决的核心问题。 And the unprofitable nature of 凤凰网《风暴眼》根据公开资料整理发现，奈雪的茶自2018年到2021年不到四年的时间营收增长超四倍，但净利润亏损却从0.66亿元扩大至1.45亿元。 According to a public review of Storm Eyes, 图源：每日财报 其盈利始终裹足不前的背后，是奈雪成本的高企。 据奈雪的茶招股书显示，奈雪的茶原材料、员工及租金开支等三项固定成本合计占据总成本超过80%。据媒体爆料，其包装材料成本两年时间内大幅提升50.3%，而在2021年财报中，已不再对包装成本与原材料成本区分披露。 According to Naisha’s tea collection book, the three fixed costs of Naisha’s tea raw materials, employees, and rental expenses together account for more than 80% of the total costs. Media reports suggest that the cost of packaging materials has increased significantly by 50.3% over a two-year period, while in the 2021 financial statement, the difference between the cost of packaging and the cost of raw materials is no longer disclosed. 但“鸵鸟战略”并不能帮助奈雪的茶遮掩疲态，亏损关店、降价降质等问题接连出现，早已让市场对奈雪的茶一片质疑。 but the Ostrich Strategy does not help Naishi's tea to cover up fatigue. Problems such as loss of shop, price reduction, etc., have long led the market to question Naish's tea. 2. 过度的营销带不动拉胯的主营业务 商业品牌专家潮成林对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示，奈雪如今的品牌周期到了关键阶段，消费者尤其是新一代消费者，对于网红品牌永远都是喜新厌旧，近两年的新晋网红品牌大多都是通过极度营销包装及运营手段，通过资本市场的不断放大，其蕴藏着不少泡沫风险，势必有个回调的过程。 Business brand experts say that the current branding cycle in Nasheed has reached a critical stage. Consumers, especially the new generation, are always infatuated with the red brands, most of which in the last two years have been magnified through extreme marketing packaging and operations, with a number of bubble risks inherent in the capital market. 而在大部分同行选择告别大量开店、转向精细化运营的2021年，奈雪的茶依然“执迷不悟”地坚持着高速扩张战略。 On the other hand, in 2021, when most of our peers chose to leave a large number of shops and move to fine-tuning operations, Naisha's tea remained “intransigent” in its fast-paced expansion strategy. 2021年，奈雪的茶净增326间奈雪的茶茶饮店，扩张到80个城市，且均为奈雪的茶直营店铺。 In 2021, there was a net increase of 326 Naishi tea and tea shops, which were expanded to 80 cities, all of which were in Naishi's direct tea shop. 根据年报披露，奈雪的茶预计在2022年新开350家茶饮店，店铺总量预计突破一千家，且开店位置则选为一线以及新一线城市。截至今年6月，奈雪的茶门店数量已达900家。 According to the annual report, Naisha's tea shop is expected to open 350 new tea shops in 2022, with a total of more than a thousand shops expected to be opened and selected as a line and a new line of cities. As of June this year, the number of Naisha's teahouses had reached 900. 但营销、推出新品的故事早已讲完，产品降价、用“自动奶茶机”取代手作更是难以打动奈雪的茶原本的拥趸——相比想要在下沉市场寻找增量的奈雪，早已围地圈河的蜜雪冰城则从容许多，今年6月，上海华与华营销咨询有限公司董事长华杉在社交平台上发文称，蜜雪冰城仅海外门店已突破1000家，这比一直“高速扩张”跑马圈地的奈雪门店总数都要多。 But the story of marketing and the introduction of new products has long been finished, with product price reductions and the replacement of hand-made tea with an “automated milk tea machine” — which is much more difficult to shake — than the search for incremental amounts in the sunk market, in the long-drawn river, in which the Director General of Shanghai and China Marketing Consulting Ltd., Huagi, wrote on social platforms in June this year that Mihai Ice City has broken over 1,000 shops abroad, which is more than the total number of Naichan stores in the “high-speed-expanding” cycle. 此外，奈雪的茶不仅外功不逮，其内部问题也是频频，2021年下半年三次因食品安全问题被监管部门处罚、今年4月中消协点名奈雪的茶使用腐烂水果、5月曝出售夹生面包。 In addition, Naisha's tea is not only uncooked, but also has a high incidence of internal problems. In the second half of 2021, she was punished three times by the regulatory authorities for food safety problems. In mid-April, Naisha's tea was removed from use of rotten fruit and her bread was exposed to sale in May. 潮成林向凤凰网《风暴眼》表示，这是因为这几年由于资本的助力和经济的高速发展，较多的新消费领域品牌过渡透支了自身的体力，在产品研发、品控质量、管理能力等方面有着不同程度的欠账。 To Phoenix Network's Storm Eyes, tidal forests indicate that this is due to the fact that more brands in new consumption have overtaken their strength over the years due to capital support and rapid economic development, with varying levels of underpayment in terms of product development, quality control, management capacity, etc. “但随着消费市场日趋成熟，而品牌价值回归，预计未来新消费领域会出现三大趋势”： “But as the consumer market matures and brand values return, three major trends in new consumption areas are expected in the future”: 产品价值回归，过度炒作的品牌将越来越难长期生存； (b) The return of product values and the increasing difficulty of over-exposure of brands for long-term survival; 消费理念转变，从迷信大品牌向小众及特色品牌聚集； (a) A shift in the concept of consumption from superstition to small and distinctive brands; 以快打快的商业模式向匠心、服务及体验的模式转变。 A shift from fast-track business models to masonry, service and experience models. 只是以奈雪目前的状态来看，其并未在主营业务上有更多突破，反而是在新消费热度的大潮急速褪去之时还迟迟未去找到自己的“底裤”。 Only in the light of Naisha's current state, it has not made any further breakthroughs in the operations of the main battalion, but rather has been delayed in finding its own “underpants” at a time when the heat of the new consumption is fading. 借今年热剧《梦华录》的大火，奈雪的茶曾推出2款产品组成的联名套餐：特调饮品“红果琉璃饮”和定制点心“半夏豆儿糕”，希冀能打出一些声响。 With the fire of this year's The Dream Book, Naisha's tea produced a joint set of two products: a special drink, “Red fruit lily” and a customized snack, “Miss summer bean cake”, which made some noise. 只是在市场信心兵败如山倒的当下，奈雪的股票几未“红过”，更难熬到下一个“半夏”。 It is only at a time when confidence in the market has collapsed that Nash's shares are barely “red” to the next “half-summer”. 参考资料： 1.《奶茶自动化、股票虚拟化，奈雪的茶能否走出亏损迷局？》，中访网财经 2.《新茶饮内卷升级 喝奈雪领虚拟股票、玩元宇宙》，海报新闻 2. 3.《4年开店200多家，“奈雪の茶”走红的逻辑是什么？》，创业邦 3. 4.《奈雪的茶：凭营销“上头”，靠产品“下头”》，每日财报 4. 本文来自微信公众号：风暴眼工作室 （ID：qiyanglu4hao），作者：张沃若
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