加密货币在一些地方似乎正在开始变得越来越“友好”。而根据目前我们的感受来看，本轮加密周期中，亚洲国家的散户（尤其是某大国的散户）似乎都比较热衷于以下的几个热门叙事：
Encrypted money seems to be starting to become “friendly” in some places. And, according to our current experience, Asian diasporas (especially in a large country) seem to be more keen on the following popular narratives in this cycle:
- BTC L2
- 铭文/符文
- Emblems/ms
- GameFi
- RWA
所以，一旦趋势发生变化（比如更多亚洲的新散户进场、虽然我不知道这件事情会不会再发生），那么上面这些叙事对应的代币，也最有可能先迎来新一轮的上涨机会。
So, once trends change (e.g., more Asian new diasporas, though I don’t know if this will happen again), the above narratives correspond to a currency that is most likely to be preceded by a new round of upturns.
这几天市场为什么发生回调呢？我们今天马后炮一下：
Why did the market come back in the last few days? We're going after each other today:
6月7日，美国公布的非农就业数据强于预期（5月非农就业岗位增加27.2万个，远高于18.5万个的预期）。因为就业市场的强劲，令美联储9月降息的希望继续减弱。既然预期发生了新的变化，市场肯定需要做出反应。
On 7 June, non-farm employment data published by the United States were stronger than expected (an increase of 272,000 in non-farm jobs in May, well above the 185,000 expected). The hope of reducing interest rates for the Fed in September continued to weaken owing to a strong job market.
6月7日，中国国家外汇管理局公布的最新数据显示，5月末我国黄金储备为7280万盎司，与4月末持平，结束了此前的连续18个月连增。此消息导致当日黄金暴跌3.3%，白银暴跌6.6%。估计这个事情也一定程度上影响到了加密市场的下跌。
On 7 June, the latest data released by the China National Foreign Exchange Administration showed that our gold reserves stood at 72.8 million ounces at the end of May, which was the same as at the end of April, ending the 18-month-long increase that followed. The news led to a 3.3 per cent drop in gold and a 6.6 per cent drop in silver that day.
但很多人看到这里，估计脑子里面依然还是只有一个问题：BTC还能到100000美元吗？
But as many people see it here, there's still one question in your head: can BTC still make it to $100,000?
好吧，我们继续往下看。
All right, let's keep looking down.
首先，我们先看看近日的一些消息面：
First, let's look at some recent news:
1）比特币现货 ETF 自推出以来，本周出现了新一波儿的最强劲流入。如下图所示。
1) Bitcoin spot ETF has seen the strongest new influx of children this week since its launch.
2）Robinhood 宣布收购了加密交易所 Bitstamp。Robinhood 是一家领先的股票交易平台之一（总部位于美国、每月拥有 1100 万活跃用户）。据说收购的金额为 2 亿美元，收购预计于 2025 年上半年完成。如下图所示。
Robinhood announced the acquisition of an encrypted exchange, Bitstamp. Robinood is one of the leading stock exchange platforms (based in the United States, with 11 million active users per month). The acquisition is said to be $200 million, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2025.
3）各国央行陆续开始降息。欧洲央行已经将利率从 4% 下调至 3.75%，这是自 2019 年以来的首次。加拿大央行也将利率从5%下调至4.75%，也是四年来的首次降息。降息潮即将到来？那么，接下来就看老美怎么表演了。
The ECB has reduced interest rates from 4% to 3.75% for the first time since 2019. The Bank of Canada has also reduced interest rates from 5% to 4.75% for the first time in four years.
4）头部交易所正在试图让交易加密货币变的更简单。Coinbase 发布智能钱包，其目标是实现链上用户体验的大幅提升。Binance 宣布恢复Mastercard、Visa或SEPA进行银行转账，体验顺畅的交易，表示着大型支付提供商正在重新回归加密潮流？
4) Head exchanges are trying to make it easier to encrypt transactions. Coinbase publishes smart wallets, the goal of which is to achieve a significant increase in the user experience on the chain. Binance announces the resumption of bank transfers by Mastercard, Visa, or SEPA, and experiences smooth transactions, indicating that large payment providers are returning to the encryption trend?
而上面这些消息也仅是我们本周看到的部分消息而已，且长期看，这些消息都反映出了非常积极地一面。另外，其实最近我们应该也已经知道了已经发生或即将会发生的一些事件，比如：ETH ETF 的通过也只剩下了时间的问题、各路名人正在积极推出自己的MemeCoin（比如JENNER、MOTHER等代币）或者在公开谈论加密货币（记得2021年那波儿牛市也出现过类似的情况）、今年美国的总统大选……等等。
And the above information is only part of what we have seen this week, and, in the long run, it reflects a very positive picture. In addition, we should have learned recently that some of the events that have taken place or are about to take place, such as the fact that the passage of ETH ETF has only time left, that prominent people are actively promoting their own MemeCoin (e.g. JENNER, MOTHER, etc.) or that they are talking openly about encrypted money (remember the similar situation in the Boeing Cow City in 2021), this year’s presidential elections in the United States, etc.
其次，我们再来看看链上的几个基础数据：
Secondly, let's look at some of the basic data on the chain:
1）交易所BTC钱包余额
1) Exchange BTC Wallet Balance
过去的 30 天累计从交易所流出 96775.72 比特币，交易所中比特币余量的急剧下降表明，大户在预期价格上涨时正在将比特币移出交易所进行屯币。如下图所示。
Over the past 30 days, cumulative outflows from the exchange amounted to 96,775.72 bitcoins, and the sharp decline in the balance of bitcoins on the exchange indicates that large households are moving bitcoins out of the exchange to hold them. As shown in the figure below.
目前，交易所仅剩余 250 万枚比特币，已经创下了自 2018 年 3 月以来的新低。从上图可以看出，交易所比特币大幅度外流变化始于 5 月 15 日，这个时间恰逢美国季度末 13 F 备案（13F 报告是指管理股票资产超过1亿美金的美国机构投资者每个季度需要披露的持仓报告）要求后的 45 天。
There are currently only 2.5 million bitcoins left on the exchange, which has reached a new low since March 2018. As can be seen from the above graph, the large outflow of bitcoins from the exchange began on 15 May, 45 days after the US quarterly 13F filings (13F reports refer to the quarterly warehouse reports required to be disclosed by US institutional investors managing stock assets of more than $100 million).
2）BTC巨鲸的持币情况
2) Currency holdings of BTC giant whales
5 月份，巨鲸增持了 16.4 万枚 BTC，这是自 2018 年 1 月以来的最高月度增持量。
In May, giant whales gained 164,000 BTCs, the highest monthly increase since January 2018.
鲸鱼则卖出了 11.8 万枚 BTC，是自 2022 年 12 月以来的最大卖出量。
The whales sold 118,000 BTCs, the largest since December 2022.
鲨鱼在 2024 年 2 月卖出了 16.5 万枚 BTC，但在 2024 年 3 月大量买入了 15.9 万枚 BTC。
Sharks sold 165,000 BTCs in February 2024, but bought 159,000 BTCs in March 2024.
通过过去几个月的数据综合来看，巨型鲸鱼对比特币的积累（加上我们上面提到的比特币从交易所的流出），这些都是看涨的因素。
A combination of data over the past few months shows that the accumulation of big whales in bitcoin (plus the outflow of bitcoin from the exchange that we have mentioned above) is a factor in this increase.
截止目前，比特币的总流通量为 1970 万枚，其中：177 万枚可能丢失，巨鲸持有 312 万枚（自 2022 年 11 月以来的最高水平），鲸鱼持有 480 万枚，鲨鱼持有 387 万枚，大鱼（即持有10 到 100 BTC的钱包地址）持有 257 万枚，螃蟹持有 213 万枚、虾米（即<1 BTC）持有 142 万枚。
To date, the total circulation of Bitcoins is 1970,000, of which 17.7 million are likely to be lost, 3.120,000 are held by giant whales (the highest level since November 2022), 4.8 million are held by whales, 3.87 million are held by sharks, 2.57 million are held by large fish (i.e., 10 to 100 BTC wallet addresses) and 2.130,000 are held by crabs and 1.42 million are held by crabs (i.e. < 1 BTC).
扩展小知识：比特币里面的各种鱼怎么理解？
Expanding Little Knowledge: How do the fish in Bitcoin understand?
根据加密钱包地址持有的资产数情况，我们可以把他们（人/机构）划分成下面的几种分类：
Depending on the number of assets held at the encrypted wallet address, we can divide them (persons/institutions) into the following categories:
虾米 (持有<1 BTC)
Shrimp rice (possession < 1 BTC)
螃蟹 (持有 1–10 BTC)
Crab (possess 1-10 BTC)
大鱼 (持有 10–100 BTC)
Large fish (possess 10 - 100 BTC)
鲨鱼 (持有100–1,000 BTC)
Sharks (100 - 1,000 BTC)
鲸鱼 (持有1,000–10,000 BTC)
Whale (1,000 - 10,000 BTC)
巨鲸 (持有 >10,000 BTC)
Giant whales (holding & gt; 10,000 BTC)
可以说，目前的 BTC 价格基本是由巨鲸+鲸鱼+鲨鱼主导，但通过观察链上数据就能够发现，现阶段这三类鱼对应钱包的 BTC 持有量趋于稳定且波动较小。换句话说就是，另外的大鱼、螃蟹、虾米虽然也在进行着相对比较频繁的换手，但似乎不会对 BTC 的价格产生直接的大方向上的影响。
It can be said that the current BTC prices are largely dominated by giant whales + whales + sharks, but data from the observation chain show that BTC holdings in the three categories of fish relative to wallets are stable and less volatile at this stage. In other words, other big fish, crabs, and shrimps are also changing hands relatively frequently, but they do not seem to have a direct impact on BTC prices.
而这也就导致了，接下来市场的波动似乎需要更多的去关注宏观经济方面的可能变量，也就是说，接下来老美的通胀数据、美联储的降息会直接对 BTC 的价格产生最直接的影响。但就整体的情况来猜测的话，我们依然认为，今年 BTC 的价格还是有可能达到（或接近）10 万美元的。当然，目前比较大的可能依然是继续在 60000–73000 美元之间进行盘整，接下来大家重点先去关注 9–10 月份的可能变化吧。
But, to guess the overall picture, we still believe that BTC’s prices are likely to reach (or be close to) $100,000 this year. Of course, the larger possibility remains that they will continue to be rounded up between $60000-73,000, and focus on possible changes in September-October.
还是那句话：短期的走势无法预测，但我们始终看好 BTC 的长期趋势。好好拿住你手里的饼子，争取虾米变螃蟹、螃蟹变大鱼！
Still, the short-term trends are unpredictable, but we've always kept an eye on the long-term trends of the BTC. Take the cake in your hand and try to turn the shrimp into crabs and the crabs into big fish!
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