作者：后歆桐
Author:
投资者预期，欧元对美元可能会继续走跌，甚至跌破平价。
Investors expect that the euro may continue to fall against the United States dollar and even fall into parity.
周三(6日)，欧元对美元汇率跌至20年新低，而美元指数则延续涨势至107.28，刷新近20年高点。
On Wednesday (6 days), the euro's exchange rate against the United States dollar fell to a new low of 20 years, while the United States dollar index continued to rise to 107.28, a recent high of 20 years.
过去几个月来，欧洲央行一方面期望通过加息遏制通胀，另一方面又担心加息导致一些南欧国家债务压力加大，瞻前顾后，行动迟缓，使得欧央行的紧缩步伐远落后于美联储，令欧元持续承压。眼下，能源危机和俄罗斯“断气”风险又给欧元区经济蒙上了一层阴影，同时进一步增强了美元的避险吸引力。
Over the past few months, the ECB has expected to contain inflation by raising interest rates, on the one hand, and, on the other, fear that the increase in interest rates will lead to increased debt pressure in some southern European countries, and that the slow pace of the ECB’s austerity lags far behind the US Federal Reserve, keeping the euro under pressure. The current energy crisis and Russia’s “outgas” risks have cast a shadow over the eurozone’s economy, while further increasing the attractiveness of the dollar’s flight.
在此背景下，做空欧元已成为最受投资者欢迎的交易之一。投资者预期，欧元对美元可能会继续走跌，甚至可能跌破平价。今日亚太交易时段，欧元对美元继续走低，截至发稿时，报1.0198，越来越逼近平价。
In this context, emptying the euro has become one of the most popular transactions for investors. Investors expect that the euro may continue to fall against the dollar, or even fall below parity.
做空欧元成为最受欢迎的交易之一
7月11日起，俄罗斯可能全面关闭北溪管道。由此带来的欧洲天然气供应短缺，恐将使得欧洲工业经济面临更大压力。国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)此前曾警告称，鉴于俄罗斯行为的“不可预测”，“不能排除”完全切断天然气供应的可能性。此外，欧元区各成员国对欧洲央行支持负债成员国的计划仍存在分歧，且欧元区6月商业活动增长急剧放缓，与美国经济数据形成鲜明对比。 The International Energy Agency has previously warned that, given the “unpredictability” of Russia’s actions, the possibility of completely cutting off the supply of natural gas cannot be ruled out. Moreover, there is still disagreement among eurozone member countries about the ECB’s plans to support indebted member countries, and the eurozone’s sharp slowdown in business activity in June contrast to US economic data. 多种因素叠加下，做空欧元已成为市场上最受欢迎的交易之一。分析师和投资者正在努力为俄罗斯切断对欧洲的天然气供应，使该地区陷入衰退的可能性定价。在他们看来，经济冲击将使欧洲央行更难紧缩货币政策，并可能进一步扩大与美国的利差。 Analysts and investors are trying to price Russia’s gas supply to Europe and the region’s potential for recession. In their view, economic shocks will make it more difficult for the ECB to tighten monetary policy, and may further expand the spread with the US. BlueBay资产管理公司的高级投资组合经理亨斯(Kaspar Hense)称：“这一切都与俄罗斯相关。如果我们看到欧洲因俄罗斯供应减少而实行油气配给，欧洲将出现严重衰退。” The Senior Portfolio Manager of BlueBay Asset Management, Kaspar Hense, said: “It's all about Russia. If we see the introduction of oil and gas rations in Europe as a result of Russia's reduced supply, there will be a serious recession in Europe.” 他透露，自上个月以来，BlueBay一直在做空欧元，因为他预计，如果俄罗斯停止供应，欧元对美元最坏的情况下将跌至0.90，不过他也称，这不是他们的基准预测情境。 He revealed that BlueBay had been working on an empty euro since last month, as he predicted that if Russia stopped supplying it, the euro would fall to 0.90 in its worst-case scenario against the United States dollar, although he also stated that this was not their baseline scenario. 全球最大对冲基金——桥水基金也正在全方位加大对欧洲的做空力度，稍早宣布正在做空欧元。同时，在6月中下旬的短短一周内，桥水对欧洲企业的做空押注几乎翻番，达到105亿美元，对欧洲股市的看空程度同样达到两年来之最。 The largest hedge fund in the world – the Bridge Water Fund – is also stepping up its efforts in Europe in all its aspects, declaring earlier that it is empty of the euro. Meanwhile, in just one week in mid-June, bridge water almost doubled its empty bets on European enterprises, reaching $10.5 billion, with the European stock market being the largest in two years. 瑞信宏观交易策略全球主管贾利诺斯(Shahab Jalinoos)表示，目前推动美元走强的因素已经不仅仅是风险厌恶情绪，还包括传统的宏观因素。 According to Shahab Jalinos, the global manager of the macro-trading strategy, the current push for the strengthening of the dollar is not only a risk aversion, but also a traditional macro factor. “美国是一个能源净出口国，而德国近期自1991年以来首次出现贸易逆差。美国的高利率和对美国有利的贸易情况转变，增加了美元对欧元走强的可持续性。”他称。 “The United States is a net exporter of energy, and Germany has recently experienced a trade deficit for the first time since 1991. High interest rates in the United States and a shift in trade favourable to the United States have increased the sustainability of the dollar against the euro.” He said. 法国农业信贷银行的外汇策略师马里诺夫(Valentin Marinov)也称：“美元还将继续受益于其高收益避险资产的作用。相对而言，美国经济仍未受席卷欧洲的能源危机的影响，这使得美联储能够坚持紧缩货币政策，从而继续提高美元的利率吸引力。” France’s Agricultural Credit Bank’s foreign-exchange strategist, Valentin Marinov, also said: “The dollar will also continue to benefit from its high-yield risk-avoidance assets. The United States economy, in relative terms, is still not affected by the energy crisis that has engulfed Europe, which has enabled the Fed to persist in tightening monetary policy, thus continuing to increase the attractiveness of the dollar’s interest rates.” 芝商所“美联储观察”工具显示，今日亚太交易时段，市场押注美联储在7月加息50个基点的概率是3.7%，加息75个基点的概率是96.3%。 According to the US Federal Reserve Watch tool, the market's probability of adding interest to the Federal Reserve at 50 basis points in July is 3.7 per cent and at 75 basis points is 96.3 per cent for the Asia-Pacific trading period today. 押注欧元对美元跌至平价 随着欧洲经济面临衰退风险，交易员越来越相信，欧元将进一步下跌至与美元平价。根据彭博社的期权定价模型，欧元对美元在今年年底跌至平价的可能性为40%。 As the European economy is at risk of recession, traders are increasingly convinced that the euro will fall further to parity with the United States dollar. According to Bloomberg’s options-pricing model, the probability of the euro falling to parity at the end of this year is 40%. 做市商Optiver的外汇期权交易主管布鲁克斯(Tim Brooks)表示，投资者目前对欧元期权的需求集中在较低水平，押注的欧元对美元区间为0.92~1。他预计，如果欧元当真跌至甚至跌破与美元平价，欧元走势将出现更大波动。 Tim Brooks, head of foreign exchange options trading for marketer Optiver, said that investors' demand for euro options was now concentrated at a lower level, with the staked euro at 0.92 - 1 per United States dollar. He predicted that if the euro actually fell to, or even to, parity with, the dollar, there would be greater volatility in the euro. 创纪录货币管理公司(Record Currency Management)的宏观研究主管布隆菲尔德(Andy Bloomfield)表示：“大量资本正继续流入美国，除非有什么因素使其改变流向，否则美元会保持强劲。而如果想要资金重新流入欧洲支撑欧元，那投资者首先需要看到欧洲经济前景转好。” Andy Bloomfield, the macro-research manager of Record-Current Monetary Management, said: “A large amount of capital is continuing to flow into the United States, and the dollar will remain strong unless there are factors that will enable it to change its flow. And if investors are to re-enter Europe to support the euro, then they need to see the European economic outlook turn for the first time.” 野村国际的策略师罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)也在周三的研报中写道，如果德国当真因为俄罗斯“断气”而被迫定量配给天然气，那么“德国乃至欧元区的制造业和出口将面临严重中断的风险，影响甚至会超过此前新冠疫情封锁政策”。基于此，他目前更加确信，欧元对美元将在8月前滑向0.98的点位，即跌破平价。 Nomura International's strategist, Jordan Rochester, also wrote in a Wednesday's study that if Germany were forced to ration natural gas because of Russia's “breathing gas”, then “the manufacturing and export industries in Germany and even in the eurozone would run the risk of serious disruptions, even more than the embargo policy of the new crown disease.” Based on this, he is now more convinced that the euro will slide to 0.98 by August, which means that the price will fall flat. 拉塞尔投资公司(Russell Investments)的货币和固定收益策略主管范鲁(Van Luu)补充称，投资者同时还担忧意大利国债相对德国国债利差扩大的情况。“欧元正面临一场完美风暴。考虑到各种利空因素，我不排除欧元对美元会跌至平价。”他目前持有少量空头头寸，但认为虽然欧元今年会持续处于弱势水平，但明年有可能会升值，因而不会再增持空头头寸。 The money and fixed-income strategy manager of Russell Investments adds that investors are also worried about the spread of Italian national debt vis-à-vis German national debt. “The euro is facing a perfect storm. I do not rule out that the euro will fall to parity against the dollar, given the various trade-off factors. 阅读量：21.7W
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