随着加密领域的巨擘比特币步入其四年一度的里程碑——减半，市场屏息以待，这一事件如同矿工的奖赏定时器，将于2024年4月再度敲响。本文由EarnBIT深研，透过白话区块链的细腻笔触，揭示这场加密界的大考，及其对币价与行业生态的深远影响。
As the huge bitcoin in the field of encryption enters its four-year milestone – halving the price of the market and waiting for it – this event, like a miner's award timer, will ring again in April 2024. This paper, developed by EarnBIT, reveals the magnitude of the encryption community and its profound impact on the price of money and industry ecology through the nuanced brushes of the white-language block chain.
**一、减半周期：矿工的盈亏平衡点**每当210,000个区块被挖出，比特币的诞生速率便遭“腰斩”，这不仅是数字游戏，更是供求法则的现实演绎。自2009年起，三次减半犹如时间的印记，标记着比特币逐步迈向其2100万枚的终极限额。如今，矿工面临的是盈利能力的紧缩，成本与收益的天平即将在减半后剧烈摇摆，据估计，挖矿成本或将火箭般窜升。
Every time 210,000 blocks are excavated, Bitcoin’s birth rate is “blank” – not only a digital game, but also a realistic illustration of the rules of supply and demand. Since 2009, three halves have been marked as a time mark, marking Bitco’s step-by-step movement to its final limit of 21 million.
**二、倒计时：2024年4月19日的那一刻**届时，区块奖励将瘦身至3.125比特币，时间的沙漏已经开始计数。投资者紧盯着比特币减半倒计时，准备迎接这一历史时刻的到来。
By that time, block incentives will be thinned to 3.125 bitcoins, and the hour’s sandglasses are beginning to be counted. Investors are watching the countdown of bitcoins in half, preparing for this historic moment.
**三、价格风向标：减半效应的多维解读**虽然稀有性理论振奋人心，但价格走势非单一变量所能决定。减半的魔力在于供需平衡的微妙变化，不过，比特币的航向还受制于货币政策、全球局势等多重风向。正如巴菲特所言，市场效率是个迷，减半的效应或许早已潜伏，静待时机。
The magic of halving is the subtle changes in the balance between supply and demand, but Bitcoin’s course is also subject to multiple winds, such as monetary policy, the global situation, etc. As Buffett put it, market efficiency is a mystery, and the effect of halving may already be latent.
**四、历史回声：减半周期的宏观镜鉴**从2012年的欧债危机，到2020年的疫情风暴，每一次减半都与时代的脉搏紧密相连，预示着价值存储角色的强化。2024年的减半，能否成为又一个历史转折点，市场翘首以盼。
From the European debt crisis in 2012, to the storm of 2020, each one halved to the pulse of the times, heralding the strengthening of the value-storage role. By 2024, the market is looking forward to another historic turning point.
**五、价格预演：未来轨迹的线索**历史数据显示，减半前后往往酝酿着价格波动的高潮，专家预测2025年比特币价格或将触及15万至20万美元的云端。但别忘了，这是一场与时间的舞蹈，短期的波折与长期的趋势交织，构成加密世界的不确定美。
Historical data show that price volatility tends to peak before and after halving, with experts predicting that the price of bitcoin in 2025 will touch between $150,000 and $200,000. But remember, it is a dance with time, with short-term swings interwoven with long-term trends, and constitutes the uncertain beauty of an encoded world.
**六、现货ETF的催化作用**现货比特币ETF的兴起，为市场注入了新的活力，缓解了矿工的抛售压力，也为比特币的稳步上行铺设了道路。这不仅是资金的涌入，更是信心的累积。
The rise of the spot bitcoin ETF has given new impetus to the market, eased the pressure on miners to sell, and paved the way for a steady upturn in bitcoin. This is not only an influx of funds, but also a build-up of confidence.
**七、矿工的生存智慧**面对减半的挑战，矿工们不是坐以待毙，而是主动出击，升级设备、优化运营，甚至涉足比特币NFT的新领域，以求在这场游戏中继续前行。
In the face of the challenge of halving the number of miners, rather than waiting to die, the miners have taken the initiative to upgrade equipment, optimize operations and even venture into new areas of NFT in Bitcoin in order to move forward in the game.
**八、环境与政策：双刃剑下的抉择**环保议题与政策监管如影随形，比特币挖矿的能源消耗成为争议焦点。然而，技术创新与政策适应性或能为这枚硬币的另一面带来转机。
Environmental issues and policy regulation go hand in hand, and the energy consumption of bitcoin mining has become the focus of controversy. However, technological innovation and policy adaptation may bring a turn for the other side of the coin.
**九、技术指标：洞察未来的窗口**MVRV Z-score与权力法则走廊等链上指标，像是市场的罗盘，指向比特币的估值与未来走势，预示着长期增长的潜力与短期波动的可能。
Indicators on the chain such as MVRV Z-score and the Law of Power Corridor, such as market compasses, point to the valuation and future movement of Bitcoin and portend the potential for long-term growth and short-term fluctuations.
**十、结语：未来的曙光**在减半的前夜，比特币正站在历史的十字路口，既有的逻辑与未知的变数交织。EarnBIT的观察指出，2024年前后，价格或将跃升至55,000至60,000美元区间，全年波动区间广阔。尽管未来难以捉摸，但当前的环境似乎为比特币的再次飞跃铺垫了道路，一场加密世界的盛宴，正在缓缓拉开序幕！
On the eve of halving, Bitcoin was standing at the crossroads of history, interwoven by established logic with unknown variables. EarnBIT’s observations indicate that prices may have jumped to between US$ 55,000 and US$ 60,000 around 2024, with a wide range of year-round fluctuations. Despite the uncertainty of the future, the current environment seems to pave the way for a further leap for Bitcoin, and an encoded world feast is slowly opening the scene.
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