全方位的梳理比特币2012年以来的走势，揭示价其格波动背后的技术逻辑，从偶然性中找到必然性。
The full-scale combing of the movement of bitcoin since 2012 reveals the technical logic behind price volatility and finds inevitability from chance.
今天缠师将对比特币2012年以来的走势进行全方位的梳理，为大家揭示价其格波动背后的技术逻辑，从偶然性中找到必然性。在解读比特币之前，先说一下以太坊。缠师认为，以太坊不仅仅是第二大市值币种，而且还是一个极有可能率先于比特币见底的币种。
Today's enthusiast has drawn the full picture of what has been going on in Bitcoin since 2012 to reveal the technical logic behind price fluctuations and to find the necessary intimacy. Before reading bitcoin, let's start with Ether. The enthusiast believes that it is not only the second-largest market currency, but also a currency that is most likely to take the lead at the bottom of bitcoin.
先看以太坊价格的日K线走势图
looks first at the Japan-Kline map at Taicha's price
在市场恐慌情绪蔓延和看空预期不断增强的背景下，缠师力排众议，坚持认为以太坊已经率先进入技术上的终极底部区间，并且明确指出：0.809黄金分割位，对应276.56美元，该位置下方，属于技术上的终极底部区间。
Against the backdrop of widespread panic in the market and growing expectations, the enthusiasts took the lead, insisting that the Etherms had taken the lead in the technology's ultimate bottom zone, and made it clear that the gold cut-off position of 0.809, equivalent to $276.56, was under the technology's ultimate bottom zone.
从整体结构看，ETH价格调整至今，已经完整地走完了A、B、C（C1到C5）三个调整浪。在基本面没有出现重大利空的情况下，向下偏离15%-30%，已经很了不得了。
In terms of the overall structure, the ETH price adjustment has so far completed three full waves of A, B, and C (C1 to C5). In the absence of a significant margin of profit, a 15-30% deviation from the base is already inevitable.
缠师前期曾反复强调：“考虑到熊市末期，由于看空预期不断加强，非理性抛售引发踩踏效应，很可能会先大幅跌破276.57美元，进行诱空洗盘，然后再收回。”我们看一下以太坊是不是这么走的。
The enthusiast has repeatedly stressed: “In view of the late days of Bear City, the irrational dumping, which triggers a pedaling effect, is likely to cause a sharp fall in $276.57, induce an empty washing dish, and then take it back.” Let's see if Ether has gone this way.
下图是以太坊价格的30分钟Ｋ线走势
The figure below is based on a 30-minute Kline trend at Tailing's price
从上图可以看出：ETH价格昨天早盘最低暴跌至250.84美元，向下偏离276.56美元的幅度为9.30%。今天随即展开强势反弹，再次收复276.56美元，最高上冲至290.05美元，近24小时振幅高达15.63%。
As can be seen from the above figure, the price of ETH fell at a minimum of $250.84 yesterday, a decline of 9.30 per cent from $276.56. A strong rebound was launched today, recovering $276.56 again, up to $290.05, with an almost 24-hour amplification of 15.63 per cent.
这只是完成了第一次探底。终极底部的构筑，需要一个漫长的过程。上一轮熊市，比特币的筑底过程，对当下而言，具有相当高的参考价值，下文中，缠师会详细阐述。
This is just the first search. The construction of the ultimate bottom takes a long process. The last round of bear, bitcoin, the construction process, has a fairly high reference value for the moment, as detailed below.
从短线走势看：ETH上方阻力看305.19美元。后期即使突破该位置，技术上也没有太大的意义，只会延长构筑底部的时间。下方支撑看：271.47-276.56美元。后期以有效跌破该区间，作为展开第二次探底的技术确认信号。
In short-line trends, it's $305.19 for resistance over the ETH. Even if you break through the position, it's not technically significant at a later stage, and it only extends the construction time at the bottom. Below, it is supported by $271.47-276.56. At a later stage, an effective break in the zone is used as a technical confirmation signal to launch a second search.
通常而言，主力资金在底部吸筹的时候，需要反复进行诱空洗盘，清理浮动筹码。熊市末期，只要不是在最低点入场，不管做什么线（短、中、长），都会被套。因此，市场情绪最为消沉，一致性看空预期也最为强烈。因此，这一波反弹，并不能排除后期再创新低的可能性。
As a rule, when the main money is pumped at the bottom, it needs to be retouched and washed again and again to clean up floating chips. The end of Bear City, if it does not enter at the lowest point, is covered with whatever line it does (short, medium, long). So, the market mood is the most depressed, and the expectation of consistency is the strongest.
回到主题，如何解读比特币2012年以来价格走势？对于当下和未来又有什么借鉴意义呢？
How do you interpret the price trends of Bitcoin since 2012 when
上一轮牛市周期：2012年2月18日至2013年12月4日
这次牛市，不到两年时间，从启动点4.2美元，最高上冲到1149.5美元，翻了273倍。
In less than two years, the cattle market rose from a start-up point of $4.2 to a peak of $1149.5, a 273-fold increase.
具体而言，1浪起点4.2美元，高点是187.5美元，暴涨43.64倍。3浪起点为66.3美元，高点为690.9美元，涨幅缩减至9.42倍。5浪起点418.4美元，高点为1149.5美元，涨幅缩减至1.75倍。
Specifically, a wave starts at $4.2 at a height of $187.5 and surges 43.64 times. A three wave starts at $66.3 and a high of $690.9, with an increase of 9.42 times. A five wave starts at $418.4 and a high of $1149.5, with an increase of 1.75 times.
这轮牛市，最大的特征在于：1浪上冲最为凶猛，5浪上冲最为弱势，4浪回调的时间非常短暂。为什么会出现这种情况？
The biggest feature of this bull market is that one of the waves is the most violent, five is the most vulnerable, and four is very short. Why is this happening?
下图为比特币在2013年11月11日之前的走势
The figure below 从这种图中可以看出，在2013年11月11日之前，比特币的K线，无论涨跌，都是“一”字型。出现这种情况的根本原因在于：市场交易量和活跃度极低。说的直白点，就是没几个人玩！这种K线在中国的新三板中，比比皆是。举个例子：高能5（代码：400060）。 As can be seen from this graph, before November 11, 2013, the Kline of Bitcoin, whether up or down, was a “one” font. The underlying reason for this is that the volume and activity of market transactions are extremely low. The white point is that few people play. This K Line is common in China’s new third board. For example, high energy 5 (code: 400060). 下图为高能5的K线走势 The K line below 2013年11月11日之前，由于比特币市场交易量和活跃度极低，因此，只需要少量的资金，就可以把价格“拉暴”。换言之，2013年11月11日之前，比特币即使暴涨，只有极少数早期持有者（2012年就埋伏进入的那批人）能够赚得盆满钵满，对于绝大多数人而言，只能眼巴巴看着流口水，各种羡慕嫉妒恨。 Prior to 11 November 2013, because of the extremely low volume and activity of the Bitcoin market, it would take only a small amount of money to “pull” the price. In other words, even if Bitcoin soared before 11 November 2013, only a very small number of early holders (the group that entered in the ambush in 2012) would be able to make a full fortune. For the vast majority of people, only the eyelids would be able to watch the drool and all kinds of envy. 2013年11月11日之后，由于“赚钱效应”急剧扩散，吸引场外交易者入局，交易量和活跃度因此大幅提升，才出现了相对标准的价格K线图。 After 11 November 2013, the dramatic spread of the “profit effect” to attract out-of-the-field traders led to a significant increase in the volume and activity of transactions, resulting in a relatively standard price K-line map. 上一轮熊市调整周期：2013年12月5日至2015年2月14日 Last round of the bear city adjustment cycle: 5 December 2013 to 14 February 2015 上一轮熊市调整的结构在图中已经详细说明，不再赘述。缠师想补充的是：熊市周期的三个阶段以及0.809黄金分割位（对应222.95美元）的技术含义。 The structure of the last round of the restructuring of the bear city is described in detail in the graph and is not repeated. The master would like to add: the three phases of the bear cycle and the technical implications of the 0.809 gold partition (equivalent to $222.95). 熊市的第一个阶段：技术上会走出一个A、B、C的调整结构，考验的目标是上一轮牛市高点到低点的0.618黄金分割位（见图）。有效跌破之后，调整级别通常会扩大至0.809黄金分割（见图）。A、B、C三浪调整结构完成，意味着熊市的主跌段已经结束。 The first phase of 熊市的第二个阶段：进入震荡周期。这个时间段比较漫长，通常会对C浪调低点（对应408.7美元）进行反复测试（2到3次）。第三次测试的时候，一旦彻底失守，将开启向下探底。 The second phase of Bear City: enters a concussion cycle. This period is longer, with repeated tests (2 to 3 times) of the C-rolling lower point (equivalent to $408.7). 熊市的第三个阶段：进入向下探底周期。进入该周期后，将直接考验技术上的终极底部区间（0.809黄金分割位下方属于终极底部区间）。上一轮熊市最低下探至164.9美元，向下偏离幅度为26.04%。 The third phase of the City of Bears: enters the bottom-down cycle. 震荡筑底周期：2015年2月15日至2015年8月18日 Bottom cycle of shock construction: 15 February 2015 to 18 August 2015 从上图可以看出，在熊市结束之后，进入筑底周期。从技术上讲，是对前期熊市调整低点进行确认。由于这个周期持续的时间也比较久，会有大量的浮动筹码被清洗出局，筹码集中度会越来越高。 As can be seen from the above figure, when the bear market is over, it is in the bottom cycle. Technically, it is identified as a low point for the adjustment of the previous bear market. As the cycle also lasts longer, a large number of floating chips will be washed out, and the concentration of chips will increase. 开启5浪上升结构：2015年8月18日至2017年1月4日 Starts a five-wave uplift structure: 18 August 2015 to 4 January 2017 筑底周期结束之后，BTC重新进入上升趋势，以5浪上升结构的方式，首先要挑战的是上一轮牛市的高点。 At the end of the construction cycle, BTC re-entered the upward trend, first challenging the height of the last round of cattle in the form of a five-wave rise in structure. 突破上一轮牛市高点，开启新一轮5浪上升结构：2017年1月5日至2017年12月17日 关于这一轮牛市5浪上升结构的详细解读，可以回看8月7日的《缠师说币：那些年我们一起追过的比特币》，在此不进行赘述。 For a detailed reading of the five-wave rise structure of this cow city, it is possible to look back at the " Twisted Man: Bitcoin " of 7 August, which we pursued together in those years, without repeating it here. 从目前走势来看，本轮熊市调整的结构，和上一轮熊市高度相似。 In terms of current trends, the structure of the bear city was highly similar to that of the previous round. 熊市的第一个阶段：再次走出一个 A、B、C的调整结构。同样，考验的也是上一轮牛市高点到低点的0.618黄金分割位（见图）。有效跌破之后，调整级别通常会扩大至0.809黄金分割（见图）。 The first phase of the 熊市的第二个阶段：进入震荡周期。目前比特币（BTC）疑似在这个周期的末尾部分运行。和上一轮熊市高度相似，从技术角度出发，这个周期会对C浪调低点（对应6000美元）进行反复测试（2到3次）。第三次测试的时候，一旦彻底失守，将进入向下探底周期。 The second phase of 从当前走势来看，比特币价格昨天盘中跌破6000美元，最低下探至5879.3美元，随即再次收回，报收在6189美元。今天比特币短线展开反弹，最高上冲至6477美元，暂时排除向下探底的风险。 In view of the current trend, the price of 从中长期结构看，目前BTC处于原始上升通道内部运行，属于正常的价值回归，投资者从过去的非理性逐渐变得更加理性。上方阻力参数看平行线1和平行线2（见图），在没有探出终极底部之前，有效突破这两个位置的可能性非常低。 From a medium- and long-term structure, is currently running within the primary upscaling corridor, is a normal return of value, and investors have gradually become more rational from the irrationality of the past. The above resistance parameters look at parallel 1 and parallel 2 (see figure), and the likelihood of effective breakthroughs between these two positions is very low before the bottom of the final pole is detected. 下图为目前比特币的4小时K线走势 The figure below 从上图可以看出，BTC价格围绕核心参数6285.72美元（0.809黄金分割，见图）展开拉锯战。截至今天17:00，已经是连续三次失而复得了。但是由于突破的幅度并不大，能否在该位置上方站稳，仍然存在不确定性。 As can be seen from the figure above, BTC prices are fighting against the core parameter of $6285.72 (0.809 gold splits, see figure). By 17:00 today, they have been repeated three times in a row. 结构上，目前形成了向下扩散形态，特征是（反弹）高点下移，（调整）低点也下移，越靠后，波动越大。这种走势，会让币友们非常纠结。但是，抛开价格扰动的因素，后期看盘的核心在于6000-6285.72美元区间的得失。该区间失守，警惕进入向下探底的时间周期。该区间内部或者上方运行，可以排除这种风险。 Structurally, there is now a downward diffusion pattern, characterized by (reflection) moving down high points and (adjustment) moving down lower points, the more volatile they are. Such a move would be very difficult for monetary friends. 今天内容的技术成分比较高，基本上把2012年比特币走势从技术上彻底说搞清楚了，在币圈里，缠师可以说是第一人。大家第一遍能够看明白应该会比较困难，多看几遍吧。 Today, the technical content of the content is relatively high, making it technically clear that the 2012 Bitcoin trend is the first person in the currency circle. It should be difficult for you to see it a few more times. 有的朋友反馈说：做好心理准备，现在将进入币市的寒冬。缠师想说的是，早在2017年12月18日，币市就已经进入寒冬了，好不好？现在属于寒冬的下半场，挺过去了，会很牛逼。挺不过去，就是炮灰！下一轮牛市来了，只有仰天长叹的份儿了。 Some of our friends said, "Be prepared for the cold winter of the city of coins." What they wanted to say was that on December 18, 2017, the city was already in the cold, okay? Now it's the second half of the winter, and it's over, and it's gonna be awesome.
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