比特币产量减半简史

懂得敬畏柏松过程的人，就懂得“君子不卜”的道理。没有人是柏松过程的对手，包括上帝。因为全能的上帝，就一定能制造出一个自己也无法预测的柏松过程，也就否定了他的全知。全知与全能，在柏松过程面前失去了兼容性。于是柏松过程，便否定掉了全知全能的上帝的存在。

Those who know how to fear the ceremonial process know the meaning of the word “men”: no one is an opponent of the ceremonial process, including God. For an Almighty God can create a ceremonial process that they cannot predict, and he can be denied the full knowledge of it. A fully versed in the ceremonial process. The ceremonial process denies the existence of an all-powerful God.

于是轻而易举的推论是，短线是最不靠谱的市场策略，因为你选择与柏松过程为敌。靠谱的市场策略，要么是甚高频交易，在外部柏松过程脚步之间出击，唯快不破；要么则是彻底的长线策略，让时间消化柏松过程的冲击，耐心等待一切冲击中性化。（教链2024.3.19文章《熊市买入，长期持有》）

So the easy theory is that the short line is the least reliable market strategy, because you choose to compete with the cedar process. The market strategy is either very high frequency (VHF) transactions that strike between the external cedar process steps, or a thorough long line strategy that allows time to digest the impact of the cedar process and patiently wait for all shocks to be neutral.

以史为鉴，让我们回顾一下，过往3次产量减半，即2012.11.28、2016.7.9、2020.5.11，之前之后，市场的走势变化，以及彼时彼刻的历史事件吧。

In the light of history, let us recall that the past three times, namely 2012.11.28, 2016.7.9 and 2020.5.11, saw the evolution of the market and the historical events of each other.

第一次产量减半

Halve first production

时间：2012年11月28日

Time: 28 November 2012

产量变化：从每区块50 BTC下降为25 BTC

Volume change: from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC

减半日价格：约12.3美刀。

Halve the daily price: approximately 12.3 United States dollars.

减半前表现：楔形洗盘。

Performance by half: Shade wash.

（1）曾在8月17日最高涨超15美刀。

(1) Up to 15 United States dollars on 17 August.

（2）曾在8月19日最低跌超8美刀。

(2) On 19 August, he fell by a minimum of $8.00.

（3）上下洗盘后，从8月中至11月中走出一个对称楔形。11月16日完成楔形向上突破。

(3) Up and down the dishes, a symmetrically scaffolded from mid-August to mid-November. A scaffolding break was completed on 16 November.

减半后表现：一路上扬。延续对称楔形向上突破的趋势，并在2013年1月份加速向上。

Performance by half: up the road. Continuing the symmetrical stifling upwards and accelerating upwards in January 2013.

图形：（见下图）

Graphics: (see figure below)

重要事件：

Important events:

（1）2012年9月，由前Bitcoin Core首席开发者Gavin Andresen等人牵头的比特币基金会成立。当然，后来的事实表明，这是一个失败的尝试。八月中旬之前的快速拉升，或许和市场将其解读为利好有关。

(1) In September 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation, led by former Bitcoin Core chief developer Gavin Andresen and others, was founded. Of course, subsequent facts suggest that it was a failed attempt. The rapid upswing before mid-August may be related to the market’s interpretation of it as profit-making.

（2）2012年11月，wordpress博客平台宣布支持比特币付款。这在当年应该会被视为一个成功的案例。

(2) In November 2012, the Wordpress blog platform announced its support for Bitcoin payments. This should be seen as a successful case in the year.

复盘：

Duplicate:

减半前的充分洗盘，向上插针洗掉空头杠杆，向下插针洗掉多头杠杆，并经过3个月的楔形收敛，多空激烈交战，最终在减半前完成了充分的博弈。这些都为迎接减半奠定了良好的基础。减半月出现应用落地的利好，且减半后没有出现黑天鹅利空事件，这些都为减半后的供应冲击和市场拉升营造了良好的外部氛围。

Full washing of dishes by half, de-leveraging of needles up, de-leveraging of needles down and, after three months of scaffolding and heavy fighting, eventually completes a full game by half. These provide a good basis for preparing to halve. Half a month of benefits in applications, and half a year without black swans, create a good external climate for supply shocks and market uplifting after half a half.

第二次产量减半

Halve second production

时间：2016年7月9日

Time: 9 July 2016

产量变化：从每区块25 BTC下降为12.5 BTC

Volume change: from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC

减半日价格：约660美刀。

Half the daily price: about $660.

减半前表现：楔形洗盘。

Performance by half: Shade wash.

（1）曾在6月18日最高涨超780美刀。

(1) Up to $780 on 18 June.

（2）曾在6月23日最低跌超560美刀。

(2) A minimum drop of $560 was recorded on 23 June.

（3）上下洗盘后，从6月中旬至7月底走出一个对称楔形。

(3) Up and down the dishes, a symmetrically sclerosis emerged between mid-June and the end of July.

减半后表现：先抑后扬。

Performance by half: first down and then up.

（1）7月31日完成楔形向下突破。8月2日最低跌超480美刀，相较于减半日660美刀跌幅近30%，相较于减半前局部高点780美刀跌幅则近40%。（3.22教链内参《摩根大通称BTC抛售尚未结束，减半后或跌至42k》是不是就是根据这个跌40%刻舟求剑推算出来的呀？71000刀 x (1 – 40%)=42600刀）

(1) On July 31, a slide-down break was completed. On August 2, the lowest drop was over $480, or nearly 30%, compared to the 660 cut by half, or nearly 40%, compared to the 780 cut by the pre-50 percent. (3.22 BTC sales in the chain are still not over, and 50% or 42k is based on this 40% drop? 71,000 x (1 & #8211; 40%) = 42,600)

（2）8月、9月、10月低位洗了三个月的盘之后，10月底（27日）重返减半日价格，并有效突破，开启了星辰大海的新征途。

(2) At the end of October (27 October), after three months of rinsing at a low level in August, September and October, a return to half the daily price and an effective breakthrough opened a new journey to the Starship Sea.

图形：（见下图）

Graphics: (see figure below)

重要事件：

Important events:

（1）3月，日本内阁宣布承认虚拟货币例如比特币具有货币功能。

(1) In March, the Japanese Cabinet announced recognition of the monetary function of virtual currency such as Bitcoin.

（2）7月，研究人员发表研究论文，称自2013年以来，比特币商业不再由犯罪活动推动，而是主要是合法企业活动构成。

(2) In July, the researcher published a research paper stating that, since 2013, the business of Bitcoin has been no longer driven by criminal activity, but primarily by legitimate entrepreneurial activity.

（3）7月，CheckSequenceVerify软分叉成功激活。

(3) In July, the CheckSequienceVerify soft fork was successfully activated.

（4）8月，Bitfinex遭受黑客攻击，被盗近12万枚BTC。8月份的暴跌由此而促成。从盘面看，显然有内部人提前知道了失窃的消息并抢跑了市场。

(4) Bitfinex was hit by hackers in August, and nearly 120,000 BTCs were stolen. The crash in August contributed to this. From the plate, it is clear that insiders knew the theft in advance and stole the market.

复盘：

Duplicate:

一个外部的黑天鹅事件打破了向上突破楔形整理的美梦，并造成了长达3个月的低位洗盘。短期投机者被套牢，磨不过的就此割肉，认输离场，倒在了黎明之前。柏松过程神出鬼没，非投机者所能胜也。

An external black swan event broke the dream of breaking the crayons and created a three-month-long low-down washing plate. Short-term speculators were locked up, cut their meat, and lost before dawn.

第三次产量减半

Halve third production

时间：2020年5月11日

Time: 11 May 2020

产量变化：从每区块12.5 BTC下降为6.25 BTC

Volume change: from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block

减半日价格：约8600美刀。

Halve the daily price: approximately 8,600 United States dollars.

减半前表现：黑天鹅暴跌。

By half: Black Swan fell.

（1）曾在2月13日最高涨超10000美刀。

(1) Up to $10,000 on 13 February.

（2）曾在3月13日最低跌超3900美刀。

(2) On 13 March, he fell by a minimum of US$ 3900.

（3）美国疫情爆发，美股连续熔断，波及加密市场，造成了历史性地“312”大暴跌。一日跌幅近40%。一个月回撤超60%。2倍杠杆都被彻底爆掉，灰飞烟灭。

(3) The outbreak of the US epidemic, the continuous melting of the US stock and its impact on the encryption market, caused a historic “312” crash. The fall was nearly 40 per cent a day. Over 60 per cent a month of retreats. Two times the leverage was completely blown out, and ash was wiped out.

减半后表现：横盘修复。

Performance by half: cross-cutting repair.

由于“312”史无前例的洗盘，几乎爆掉了所有的杠杆（倍率低至2倍都会倍爆仓），造成了大面积的恐慌和心理阴影，以至于很长一段时间内，市场都陷于二次暴跌的恐惧中走不出来，以至于虽然市场洗的足够干净，包袱很轻，但却愣是延宕了半年（6个月），直至10月下旬才真正开始向上冲刺，吹响牛市的号角。这一次，减半日到进入牛市快速上升通道之间所间隔的时间，也比2016年（3个月）和2012年（1个月）都要长。

As a result of the unprecedented washing of the “312” dish, almost all leverage (with a double-fold rate of explosion in the barn) was blown off, causing a lot of panic and psychological shadow, so that for a long time the market was trapped in the fear of a second collapse that, while the market was clean enough and light, it was delayed for six months (six months) and only in late October, when it really started rushing upwards to blow the horn of the bull market. This time, it was also longer than it was in 2016 (3 months) and 2012 (1 month) than it was in 2016.

图形：（见下图）

Graphics: (see figure below)

重要事件：

Important events:

（1）1月31日，特朗普总统宣布美国进入公共健康紧急状态。2月，美国发生第一例死亡病例。

(1) On 31 January, President Trump declared a public health emergency in the United States. In February, the first case of death occurred in the United States.

（2）3月12日，黑色星期四。全球股票市场崩盘。

(2) Black Thursday, 12 March. The global stock market collapsed.

（3）10月，Paypal支付平台宣布将允许其用户买卖BTC。

(3) In October, the Paypal payment platform announced that it would allow its users to buy and sell BTC.

复盘：

Duplicate:

这一次的黑天鹅事件，不是发生在减半后，而是发生在减半前。神鬼莫测的柏松过程和投机者们开了一个大大的玩笑。洗盘是肯定要洗的，只是每一次的洗法儿，都各有花样。2012年是洗洗更健康。2016年是小洗完了还要大洗。2020年是深度清洗，然后晾起来了。

This black swan incident took place not after half, but before it was halved. The hysteria of the cedars and speculators made a big joke. The washing of the dishes is sure to be washed, and every one of them is different. The year 2012 was a healthier one. The year 2016 was a small one and a big one. The year 2020 was a deep one, and then it was hung up.

第四次产量减半

Halve fourth production

时间：2024年4月19?日

Time: 19 April 2024?

产量变化：从每区块6.25 BTC下降为3.125 BTC

Volume change: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block

减半日价格：约?美刀。

Half the daily price: about? A knife.

这一次，我们又将经历怎样的减半事件呢？

What kind of event are we going to go through this time?

翻倍拉升已经拉了。局部高位楔形收敛也已近于完成。变盘在即，减半将至。黑云压城城欲摧。山雨欲来风满楼。

The doubling has already been pulled. The partial high-stretch condensation is nearing completion. The changeover will soon be halved. The dark cloud will crush the city.

所有的酸甜苦辣，所有的悲喜交加，所有的刻骨铭心，都随风逝去，唯有价格图线，把那全部历史浓缩为一个个数字的跳动，字字千钧。

All the sour and bitterness, all the sorrows and all the engravings have passed away with the wind, except the price line, where all that history has been condensed into a single number of beats and words.

故园东望路漫漫，双袖龙钟泪不干。

So the people of the garden looked at the road, and the tears of the two-sleeved dragons drenched.

马上相逢无纸笔，凭君传语报平安。

And soon we shall meet each other without a pen, and peace shall be with the sayings of the King.

(公众号：刘教链。知识星球：公众号回复“星球”)

(Publicity No. Liu Cong. Knowledge Planet: Publicity Replying to Planet)

(免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。)

(Exemption statement: nothing in this paper constitutes an investment proposal.