比特币价格预测：BTC跌至30天内最低点——背后发生了什么？比特币是一种基于密码学原理的加密数字货币，而随着市场的发展，就在在近期市场的不确定性因素下，比特币（BTC）价格跌至过去30天来的最低点，触及65,057美元，这一现象引发了广泛的讨论，投资者们纷纷探讨这是否只是短暂的回调，还是更深层次问题的前兆，本文将深入分析比特币价格下跌的原因，具体如下：
bitcoin price forecasts: BTC falls to the bottom of 30 days — — what's going on behind it? bitcoin is an encrypted digital currency based on cryptological principles, and as markets develop, under recent market uncertainties, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have fallen to the lowest of the last 30 days, reaching $65,057, which has given rise to extensive discussion, and investors have discussed whether this is a short-term return or a precursor to deeper problems, and the reasons for which Bitco prices have fallen will be analysed in depth, as follows:
美国经济数据和通胀预期对比特币的影响
近期，美国通胀数据的发布、消费者情绪的疲软以及美元的走强等因素，共同影响了比特币的价格走势。
Recently, the publication of inflation data in the United States, the weakness of consumer sentiment and the strengthening of the United States dollar have combined to influence price trends in bitcoin.
消费者信心指数下滑
Consumer Confidence Index Decline
根据密歇根大学最新数据显示，消费者信心指数从5月的69.1下降至6月的65.6，创下七个月来的最低点。信心指数的下滑显示出人们对经济前景的担忧日益加剧，这可能会抑制对比特币等高风险资产的投资意愿。
According to the latest data from the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index fell from 69.1 in May to 65.6 in June, reaching its lowest level in seven months. The decline in the confidence index shows growing concern about the economic outlook, which may discourage investment in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
高通胀预期
High-inflation expectation
目前的通胀预期仍然较高，远超美联储2%的目标。未来12个月的通胀预期为3.3%，而未来五年的预期则略有下降，预计降至3.1%。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的谨慎立场进一步表明，利率可能会长期维持在高位，这对市场的热情造成了抑制，持续对比特币价格产生下行压力。
Current inflation expectations remain high, well above the Federal Reserve target of 2 per cent. Inflation is expected to be 3.3 per cent over the next 12 months, while expectations for the next five years are expected to drop slightly to 3.1 per cent, with Fed Chairman Jerome & Middot’s cautious stance further suggesting that interest rates may remain high for long periods of time, putting a strain on market enthusiasm and continuing downward pressure on the price of the Special Currency.
美元强势与比特币价格承压
US dollar strength and bitcoin price holds
在强劲的经济数据和美联储的谨慎政策推动下，美元持续走强，这对比特币价格构成了较大压力。美元的强势源于其作为避险资产的吸引力，吸引了大量资金流出比特币等另类资产。
The continued strengthening of the dollar, driven by strong economic data and the Fed’s cautious policies, puts greater pressure on Bitcoin prices. The strength of the dollar stems from its attractiveness as a hedge asset, attracting large amounts of money out of alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
利率上升影响
随着市场预期利率将持续上升，美元的价值也随之攀升。高利率环境下，美元的吸引力增加，吸引了大量的外国投资，进一步削弱了比特币的吸引力。不同于传统投资产品，比特币并不提供利息或股息，这使其在高利率环境中显得相对黯淡。
In a high-interest-rate environment, the dollar’s increased attractiveness attracts large amounts of foreign investment, further weakening the attractiveness of bitcoins. Unlike traditional investment products, bitcoins do not provide interest or dividends, which makes it relatively bleak in a high-interest-rate environment.
市场上的比特币鲸鱼
Bitcoin Whales on the market
在市场看跌的背景下，比特币鲸鱼的行为显示出其对加密货币长期前景的信心。这些大型投资者在短短一天内购买了20,600个比特币，价值约13.8亿美元，这一购买量创下自2月份以来的最大值之一。这种大量的积累表明，部分投资者将当前价格视为入场的良机，预期未来价格将上涨。
Against the backdrop of market views, the behaviour of Bitcoin whales shows confidence in the long-term outlook for encrypted money. These large investors bought 20,600 bitcoins worth about $1.38 billion in just one day, one of the largest since February.
比特币价格技术分析
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
目前，比特币的交易价格约为66,100美元，略高于67,050美元的枢轴点，显示出市场的看跌情绪。比特币面临的主要阻力位在68,500美元，其次是70,000美元和71,700美元。
At present, the transaction price of Bitcoin is about US$ 66,100, slightly higher than the pivotal point of US$ 67,050, showing market sentiment. Bitcoin faces a major drag of US$ 68,500, followed by US$ 70,000 and US$ 71,700.
下行支撑位
Downside Support Position
在下行方面，当前的即时支撑位在65,000美元附近，进一步的支撑位分别在63,950美元和63,000美元。50天指数移动平均线（EMA）目前位于67,900美元，表明由于比特币价格低于50天EMA，市场呈现看跌趋势。
On the bottom line, the current immediate support position is in the vicinity of $65,000, with further support in the range of $63,950 and $63,000, respectively. The 50-day index moving average (EMA) is currently at $67,900, indicating a downward trend in the market as Bitcoin prices are below 50 days EMA.
相对强弱指数（RSI）
Relatively strong and weak index (RSI)
比特币的相对强弱指数（RSI）为40，显示出略微的看跌倾向。这意味着市场在短期内可能仍将承压。
Bitcoin’s relative strength and weakness index (RSI) is 40, showing a slight downward trend. This means that the market may still be under pressure in the short term.
结论与投资建议
综上所述，比特币目前在68,500美元处面临强烈的阻力，而在65,000美元附近找到支撑。技术指标显示出略微的看跌趋势，投资者需要关注以下几点：
In summary, Bitcoin is currently facing a strong resistance at $68,500, supported around $65,000. Technology indicators show a slight downward trend, and investors need to focus on the following points:
市场情绪和宏观经济数据：关注美国的通胀数据和消费者信心指数，以评估未来的市场走势。
Market sentiment and macroeconomic data: focus on inflation data and consumer confidence indices in the United States to assess future market trends.
美元走强对比特币的影响：美元的强势可能会继续抑制比特币的价格，投资者应关注美元走势和美联储政策的变化。
The impact of the strong dollar on bitcoin: the strength of the dollar may continue to inhibit bitcoin prices, and investors should be concerned about the evolution of the dollar and changes in Fed policy.
比特币鲸鱼的动向：大型投资者的购买行为可能会为市场带来支持，投资者应关注鲸鱼的买入动向，识别潜在的入场机会。
Bitcoin whale movements: The buying behaviour of large investors may generate market support, and investors should focus on the buying dynamics of whales and identify potential entry opportunities.
在此基础上，当前市场的波动性较大，投资者应保持谨慎，做好风险管理。比特币的未来走势仍然充满变数，建议投资者密切关注市场动态，避免盲目跟风。
On this basis, the current market is more volatile, and investors should remain cautious and manage risks. Bitcoin’s future trends remain highly variable, suggesting that investors pay close attention to market dynamics and avoid blindness.
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