2013年11月29日的比特币瞬时交易数据。 图表来源：中国比特币网
近期大家热议的投资产品已经不是传统的大宗商品或者金融产品了。一种互联网上的虚拟货币，一个月内价格上涨了5倍，今年上涨幅度高达40倍，4年时间里更是上涨了超过万倍——如此暴涨行情已经超过了任何一款正规的大宗商品或者金融投资产品。它，就是富有传奇色彩的比特币。
A virtual currency on the Internet has risen five times in a month, up 40 times this year, and more than a thousand times in four years -- this surge has outpaced any formal bulk or financial investment product. It's a legendary bitcoin.
截止到11月29日12时整，中国的比特币价格已经超过7099元人民币，继19日6989元人民币的高点后再创价格新高。比特币如此非同寻常的暴涨让人怀疑，这种“造富”传奇到底能延续多久？
By 1200 hours on November 29, China's Bitcoin price had exceeded RMB 7099, and the price had been raised after the height of RMB 6989 on 19th. Such an extraordinary surge in Bitcoin raises doubts as to how long this “rich” legend will last?
比特币价格高涨事出有因
近期比特币的价格疯涨是有原因的。美国时间11月18日，美国参议院国土安全及政府事务委员会首次承认比特币是一项“合法”的金融服务。《纽约时报》称，这是美国政府首次公开承认比特币的合法性，意味着这种虚拟货币朝主流金融服务迈进了一大步。 On November 18, US time, the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs first recognized Bitcoin as a “legal” financial service. According to the New York Times, this is the first time that the US government has publicly recognized Bitcoin’s legitimacy, meaning that this virtual currency is a major step forward in mainstream financial services. 在美国政府对比特币进行有利的表态后，在11月19日的Mt.Gox交易平台上，比特币价格最高涨至900美元，在比特币中国交易平台上最高也攀升至6989元人民币。而在2012年年底时，比特币还在12美元左右徘徊。 Following a favourable statement by the US government of Bitcoin, on November 19, the price of Bitcoin rose to up to $900 on the Mt.Gox trading platform, and to up to $6,989 on the Bitcoin Chinese trading platform. By the end of 2012, Bitcoin was still hovering around $12. 美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克（Ben Bernanke）虽然没有出席这次听证会，但是他在致参议院的信中称赞了比特币的创新之处以及价值所在，并特别指出这种创新或许会催生一个更快、更安全、更高效的支付系统。这一表态更让比特币玩家看到了广阔的“钱景”。 Although the President of the United States Federal Reserve Commission, Ben Bernanke, did not attend the hearing, in his letter to the Senate he praised the innovation and value of Bitcoin, noting in particular that such innovation might lead to a faster, safer, and more efficient payment system. This expression made bitcoins more visible to their players. 早在美国承认比特币合法之前，德国财政部就承认了比特币的合法性；加拿大今年诞生了第一台比特币ATM机，8天时间内有1万加元流通起来……一系列的被合法化举措导致比特币今年内价格上涨了40多倍。 The German Treasury recognized the legitimacy of Bitcoin long before the United States recognized its legitimacy; Canada was born this year as the first Bitcoin ATM machine, with $10,000 circulating in eight days... A series of legalized initiatives led to a more than 40-fold increase in Bitcoin this year. 特殊的供应形式也是比特币暴涨的重要原因。比特币最初诞生的目的是抵制各国央行滥发货币导致纸币贬值，这在一定程度上保证了货币本身与生产力方面的平衡。此外，越多“矿工”挖掘比特币，比特币的数量就越少——这也是催生比特币价格上涨的一大原因。 Special forms of supply are also important reasons for the surge in bitcoin. Bitcoin was originally born to resist currency devaluations caused by excessive currency distribution by central banks, which in part ensured a balance between the currency itself and productivity. 越来越多的人接触比特币 在疯狂的比特币交易市场，也有冷眼旁观的业内人士。国内比特币资深玩家萧萧告诉记者，自己已经退出比特币炒作，原因很简单——“价格太吓人”。 In the crazy Bitcoin trading market, there are also cold-eyed insiders. The country’s senior Bitcoin player, Xiao Xiao, told reporters that he had withdrawn from the Bitcoin campaign for the simple reason that the price was too scary. 记者是在一个比特币玩家交流群里认识的萧萧。作为群里的管理员，他很活跃，经常教“菜鸟”如何交易比特币。 The reporter was a Xiao Xiao in a Bitcoin player exchange. As a group manager, he was active, and often taught the Greenbird how to trade Bitcoin. 萧萧告诉记者，自己其实是一名程序员，在2010年时由于工作的原因接触了比特币，在别人的引导之下开始了比特币交易。“当时比特币只能在美国的专业网站上交易，很多时候需要熬夜才能完成操作。不过那个时候比特币才10美元左右，有时候甚至还不到1美元！”萧萧就是在那时买进了一些比特币并保留了很久。“当时买入只是为了好玩，根本没想到现在比特币这么值钱。” Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao told reporters that he was actually a programmer who, for work reasons, approached Bitcoin in 2010 and started trading bitcoin under the guidance of others. “Betcoin could only be traded on American professional websites at that time, often overnight. But it was only about $10 at that time, sometimes less than $1.” It was at that time that bitcoin was bought and kept for a long time. “It was just for fun, and it was never thought that bitcoin was worth it today.” 记者了解到，2011年期间，比特币的价格长期徘徊在10美元左右，不过由于当时全球最大的比特币交易网站遭到黑客攻击导致系统混乱，比特币的价格从17.50美元一路猛跌到几乎分文不值。 Journalists learned that the price of Bitcoin had been hovering around $10 for a long period of time during 2011, but that the price of Bitcoin had fallen from $17.50 to almost nothing as a result of the system disruption caused by the hacking of the world's largest Bitcoin trading website. 据萧萧介绍，国内最早玩比特币的都是类似于他这样的互联网相关行业从业人员。现在看到比特币大赚特赚的“钱景”，各种各样的人都参与进来，尤其开通了中文比特币交易网站后，炒作比特币的人更多了。比特币中国（BTC China）CEO李启元也表示，最近一段时间该交易平台的新注册用户数和用户活跃度都有明显提高，上升趋势显著，“这说明越来越多的人正在接触比特币”。 According to Xiao Xiao Xiao, the country’s first to play bitcoin is an Internet-related trader like hiss. There is now a large “money view” of bitcoin, involving a wide range of people, especially since the Chinese Bitcoin trading website has opened, and more people are making bitcoin. Bitcoin China’s CEO, Li Quimoto, has also said that the number of new registered users and the activity of the platform has increased significantly in recent times, “which suggests that more and more people are reaching bitcoin.” 据记者了解，一些与萧萧同时期进入比特币市场的玩家手中的比特币价格至少翻了200倍以上，而在今年的疯涨行情中，有些甚至已经翻了400倍左右。 According to journalists, the price of bitcoin in the hands of some players who entered the Bitcoin market at the same time as the depression had increased by at least 200 times, while some of the crazy surges this year had even increased by about 400 times. 谈到炒作比特币以来的收入，萧萧告诉记者：“确实赚了很多钱，买套北京四环以内的房子没有任何问题。” Referring to the revenue from the production of Bitcoin, Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao told the press: “It is true that a lot of money has been made, and there is no problem buying a house within the four rings of Beijing”. 萧萧还不是从这波比特币上涨行情中受益最多的人，在比特币玩家交流群中，流传着靠炒作比特币身家已达几千万元的神话。 Xiao Xiao Xiao is not the one who has benefited the most from the growth of Bobitco, and among the Bitcoin players there is a myth that has reached tens of millions of dollars by faking bitcoin. 国内尚无合法地位维权难 There are no legal defenders in the country 在网络上关于比特币的交流群中，有人加价买入，也有人提醒莫要追高。不过，长期以来比特币“水涨船高”的价格还是刺激、吸引着更多人充值购买。 Among the exchange groups on the Internet about Bitcoin, there are those who buy it up, and there are those who caution against pursuing it. However, for a long time, the price of Bitcoin’s “water-boom-up-ship-high” is still stimulating, attracting more people to buy it. 目前，比特币中国已经成为全球最大的交易市场，火爆场面引来诸多投机者，使得比特币交易完全演绎成为另外一种金融套利行为。 At present, Bitcoin China has become the largest trading market in the world, and a number of speculators have been drawn to the scene, making the Bitcoin transaction another financial arbitrage. “由于比特币的价格疯狂上涨，很多投机者做起套利交易。他们在美国市场买入比特币，在中国市场卖出，然后套现成人民币再换成美元，如此循环往复实现套利目的。”萧萧说。 “As a result of the crazy price rise of Bitcoin, many speculators trade in arbitrage. They buy bitcoin in the United States market, sell it in the Chinese market, then exchange the renminbi into dollars, so that they return to arbitrage.” Shaw says. 但是不少专家认为，比特币更像一个悖论，由于数量稀缺、“挖矿”工作越来越难，其价格就像击鼓传花一样越来越高，最终高至崩盘。 However, according to a number of experts, Bitcoin is more like a paradox, because of the scarcity of quantities, the difficulty of “mining” work, and its price is as high as that of sculpting flowers, and ultimately as it is falling apart. 一些早期玩家现在已经看空比特币，他们认为，比特币正在上演一场新的“郁金香泡沫”，消息面利好不可能长期持续，当消息转为负面时，比特币将难逃价格下跌的命运。 Some of the early players now see bitcoin empty, arguing that bitcoin is in the middle of a new “tarts bubble”, that the news is unlikely to last long, and that when news turns negative, bitcoin will run the risk of falling prices. 此外，没有合法地位将成为比特币在中国面临的最大风险。威宇律师事务所律师雷腾表示，针对比特币在国内尚未定性的现状，如果买家遭遇比特币被盗事件，维权事宜将变得非常困难。 Moreover, the lack of legal status would be the greatest risk to Bitcoin in China. Wiewoo’s lawyer, Ratten, stated that it would be very difficult to defend the rights of a buyer who had suffered a bitcoin theft in the country, given the status quo that Bitcoin has not yet been defined. 鉴于此，复旦大学法学院教授陈浩然建议，作为比特币交易最活跃的市场之一，国内应该尽快对其进行监管，包括保证交易者资金和比特币安全、交易的合法性以及平台资质。 In view of this, Professor Chen Hao of the Faculty of Law of the University of Reyman suggested that, as one of the most dynamic markets for Bitcoin transactions, domestic regulation should be made as soon as possible, including the security of traders'funds and bitcoins, the legitimacy of transactions and the qualifications of platforms. （应被采访者要求，文中“萧萧”为化名。） (According to the request of the interviewee, the name “Shaw” has been changed to “Shaw”. 名词解释：比特币 Terminology: Bitcoin 2008年11月1日，一个自称中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的人在某个隐秘的密码学评论组发帖，陈述对电子货币的新设想，比特币就此面世并完成首笔交易。比特币是一种由开源P2P软件产生的电子币、数字币，是一种网络虚拟资产。使用者可以用它购买一些虚拟物品，比如网络游戏中的衣服、帽子、装备等；如果有人接受，也可以用来购买现实生活中的物品。 On November 1, 2008, a self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto posted a post in a secret cryptography review group setting out a new vision of electronic currency, with Bitcoin appearing and completing its first deal. Bitcoin is an electronic currency generated by open-source P2P software, a digital currency, and an online virtual asset. Users can use it to purchase virtual items, such as clothes, hats, equipment, etc. in online games; if accepted, it can also be used to purchase real-life items. 比特币的总数有限，具有极强的稀缺性。此外，它不依赖于特定的中央发行机构，而是使用遍布整个P2P网络节点的分布式数据库来记录货币的交易，并使用密码学设计来确保流通环节安全。（光明网记者 赵 刚） The total number of bitcoins is limited and extremely scarce. Moreover, it does not rely on a particular central issuer, but rather uses distributed databases throughout the P2P network nodes to record currency transactions and uses cryptography to ensure secure circulation. (来源:光明日报)
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