USDT会贬值吗？USDT贬值意味着什么？

2020年全球刚刚经历了一场暴跌，包括股市，汇率，币市。

In 2020, the world had just experienced a sharp fall, including stock markets, exchange rates and currency markets.

除了美元在涨其他的都在跌，加密数字货币市场也逃脱不掉。

Apart from the fact that the United States dollar has been rising, the market for encrypted digital money has not escaped.

暴跌之后，数字货币中的稳定币USDT又遭遇了麻烦。

After the collapse, the stable currency of the digital currency was again in trouble with the USDT.

此前，据CCN消息，随着USDT的价格从1美元下跌至0.98美元，跌约2％，过去一周，比特币在Bitfinex上的溢价也增加了相似幅度的增长。

Previously, according to CCN, with USDT prices falling from US$ 1 to US$ 0.98 or about 2 per cent, the past week saw a similar increase in Bitfinex's premium on Bitfinex.

而就在今天USDT已经贬值了5%了，甚至再一些交易所跌破了0.90美元，其他的数字货币爆拉。

And just today USDT has been devalued by 5 per cent, and even some other exchanges have fallen by $0.90 and other digital currencies have burst.

市场为什么会这样？

Why is the market like this?

一部分加密货币的投资者表示，USDT的价格下跌可归因于三个因素:

Investors in some of the encrypted currencies indicated that the decline in the prices of USDT could be attributed to three factors:

1、交易员转向接受审计和监管的替代品，比如Gemini USD和Pax。

1. Dealers shift to audited and regulated alternatives, such as Gemini USDD and Pax.

2、交易员出售USDT以购买加密货币。

2. Dealers sell USDT to purchase encrypted currency.

3、关于Tether LLC获得的银行服务的担忧。而理论上，交易员可以通过在Bitfinex上出售比特币和以太坊等加密货币来利用Bitfinex的加密货币溢价。但是，由于该平台上的存款被暂停，交易员只能以USDT出售。但在Bitfinex进行套利交易的交易员必须考虑USDT的短期价格趋势，因为USDT存在继续跌破0.98美元关口的风险。

But, because deposits on this platform are suspended, traders can only sell in USDT. But traders doing arbitrage in Bitfinex must take into account short-term price trends in USDT, as there is a risk that USDT will continue to break down the US$0.98 threshold.

现在已经跌破了0.98，到了0.95，下探到0.90，未来可能会下探0.80,甚至是0.50。你会说这样的下跌在加密货币市场不算什么.

Now it's 0.98 and it's 0.95 and it's 0.90 and it's probably 0.80 and even 0.50 in the future. You'll say it's nothing in the crypto-money market.

可是，USDT不一样，是稳定币啊，是和美元1:1来兑换的。

, however, the USDT is not the same, it's the stable currency, it's the dollar 1:1.

如果你看到手中USDT能换到的美元越来越少，那么相信你会对USDT信心的下降越来越厉害，而这又仅仅是开始。

If you see that the dollar in your hand is less and less, then you're confident that your confidence in the USDT is falling more and more, and that's just the beginning.

几天市场上已经迹象出现了，USDT相对美元已经贬值了5%。

The market has been showing signs for a few days, and the USDT has been devalued by 5% against the United States dollar.

你可千万别小看这5%，这可是所有持有USDT的投资者的资产在缩水5%。要是和USDT曾经的溢价相比，恐怕贬值了10%都不止。

Don't look down on that 5%, but the assets of all the investors holding the USDT are shrinking by 5%. If you compare to the USDT premium, I'm afraid it's gone by more than 10%.

在eth大跌的时候，一些看似聪明的人把eth换成了USDT,其实你换成USDT还是被割韭菜10%多。

When Eth fell, someone who seemed smart replaced him with a USDT, in fact, did you switch to a USDT or more than 10% cut.

本来按照理论，USDT是和美金等值兑换的数字货币，只作为一为加密币与法币之间的连接器。

The theory was that USDT was a digital currency converted to the equivalent of United States dollars and served only as a connector between an encrypted currency and a French currency.

它是虚拟货币投资者用来购买在交易所购买其他虚拟货币的手段之一，目前每天的交易额超过170亿人民币，是除比特币外交易量最大的虚拟货币。

It is one of the means used by virtual money investors to purchase other virtual currencies on the exchange, currently worth more than RMB 17 billion per day, the largest volume of transactions in addition to Bitcoins.

如果只是作为一个连接器，本身没有毛病。

If it's just a connector, there's nothing wrong with it.

但是背后涉及到的USDT利益集团和发行机制是有严重的问题的。

But the USDT interest groups and distribution mechanisms that are at stake are seriously problematic.

曾经在1月24日，一份匿名报告剑指USDT，称USDT涉嫌滥发，并在暗地里拉升比特币价格。

Once on 24 January, an anonymous report referred to the USDT, alleging that the USDT was suspected of having had indiscriminate effects and that it was secretly pulling up the Bitcoin price.

这会严重动摇投资的信心，因为投资市场，信心比什么都重要。

This would seriously shake confidence in investment, which is more important than anything in the investment market.

而同时，USDT在韩国市场的价格，已跌破一美元。

Meanwhile, USDT prices in the Korean market have fallen by a dollar.

刚刚的，这次USDT贬值似乎又是似曾相识。

Just now, the depreciation of the USDT seems familiar again.

USDT在币圈好不容易建立起来的信任，却有顷刻倒塌的危险。

While trust is not easily built up in currency circles, the USDT runs the risk of engraved collapse.

对USDT来讲信心是非常重要的。

It's very important for USDT to have confidence.

USDTD的信心问题，是一种长得像feature的bug，这种feature非常可怕，他需要大众特别关注，无法忽略，但是大众往往有时候忽略掉这些，而有些时候又非常在意这些，这样一个定时炸弹就被埋下了。

The USDTD question of confidence is a food-like bug, which is so terrible that he needs special attention from the public that he cannot ignore, but the public sometimes ignores it and sometimes cares very much about it, and such a time bomb is buried.

USDT是由Tether公司发行在比特币OmniLayer上的“稳定币”目标锚定美元。便利大众买卖加密货币。

The USDT is a “stabilized currency” anchored in United States dollars by Tether on OmniLayer in Bitcoin.

Tether公司号称每发行1 USDT，他们的银行账户里会至少储备一美元。时至今日，USDT的市值已经26亿美元了。然而Tether不曾公布过可信的验资审计报告，无法证明账上有足够的储备金。用户甚至无法直接在Tether官网拿回法币，只能通过他们的合作商家兑换或场外交易。

The Tether company claims that at least one dollar is set aside in its bank account for each USDT issue. To date, the market value of the USDT has been $2.6 billion. However, Tether has not published a credible audit report to prove that there are sufficient reserves on the account.

尽管币圈对Tether储备金的质疑声不断，但多家大交易所和支付服务商都接受USDT。

While the currency circle continues to question Tether's reserves, several large exchanges and payment service providers accept USDT.

过去牛市以来USDT的价格还真的紧紧咬住美元，波动极小，给大家一种安全感。

In the past, the prices of the USDT have been really tight on the dollar, with minimal volatility and a sense of security for all.

不过是过去是牛市，牛市过去的熊市怎么办？

But in the past, it was a cow. What about a bear in the past?

其实USDT价格表面波澜不惊的价格线下其实掩藏着一场随时会爆发定时炸弹，如果发生一点也不亚于一次门头沟事件。

In fact, the price of USDT, which appears to be unsurprising, hides under the price line a time bomb that could explode at any moment, if anything less than an incident at the door.

由于USDT交易并不需要严格的KYC身份验证，容易被用于洗钱，所以Tether公司很难找到稳定的银行合作伙伴，确保法币与USDT之间的互换。自从去年Wells Fargo银行要求台湾合作行切断与Tether的业务往来之后，Tether对储备金的去向讳莫如深。

Since USDT transactions do not require rigorous KYC identification and are easily used for money-laundering, it is difficult for Tether to find stable banking partners to ensure a swap between French and USDT. Since last year, when Wells Fargo asked Taiwan’s cooperation bank to cut off business with Tether, Tether has kept his reserves hidden.

种种迹象表明他们的主要资金被转移到了位于波多黎各的Noble Bank。据Bloomberg 10月初的报，这家Noble Bank已经丢失了Tether、Bitfinex等重要客户，面临着巨大财务危机，正在寻求买家接盘。

There are indications that their main funds have been transferred to the Puerto Rico-based Noble Bank. According to Bloomberg in early October, this Noble Bank has lost important clients, such as Tether and Bitfinex, and is facing a huge financial crisis and is seeking a buyout.

Tether资金的去向陷入了更深的谜团中。

The whereabouts of Tether's funds are trapped in a deeper mystery.

Tether与传统金融机构的一段段露水姻缘让越来越多的人产生疑虑。

A segment of the relationship between Tether and traditional financial institutions gives rise to growing doubts.

USDT与美元一比一的汇率基础其实并不牢固。

The exchange-rate base of

彭博发文称，如果政府当局要寻找任何Tether的不法行为的证据，或者用户对Tether以1美元赎回其加密货币的能力失去信心，那么USDT很快就会失去价值。

According to Bloomberg, USDT would soon lose its value if the authorities were to look for any evidence of Tether's wrongdoing or if the users lost confidence in Tether's ability to redeem his encrypted currency at $1.

但只有时间会证明USDT最近的价格下滑只是一个短暂现象还是一个重大事件的开端。

But there is only time to prove that the recent decline in USDT prices was only a temporary event or the beginning of a major event.

一旦公众对USDT可以全额换回美元的信心动摇，就会引发挤兑风潮，加速USDT信用体系的崩塌。

Once public confidence in the USDT can be fully restored to the dollar, it triggers a run-off and accelerates the collapse of the USDT credit system.

相信今天大家都看到了市场做出的反应。

believes that today everyone has seen the market react.

那么稳定币也不再稳定，而是变成币圈一颗定时炸弹。

Then the stable currency is no longer stable, but becomes a time bomb in a currency ring.

1

相信市场里一直有人质疑，怀疑Tether在搞鬼，去年老猫发过一篇文章，说USDT是沙丘上的城堡。老猫团队在对USDT进行了调查，调查的结果用触目惊心来形容USDT。

It is believed that there have been questions in the market about what Tether is doing, and last year an old cat sent an article saying that the USDT is a castle on the dunes. The old cat team is investigating the USDT, and the results of the investigation describe the USDT in a shocking way.

老猫在文章的结尾，问到如果USDT崩盘，那么比特币及其加密数字货币市场将何去何从？

At the end of the article, the old cat asked where Bitcoin and its encrypted digital money market would go if the USDT crashed.

其实这个问不是很准确的，我们真正关心的应该是，USDT是不是已经沦为了泰达公司割韭菜的工具了，泰达公司是不是真的利用发行USDT来割韭菜？

What we really care about is whether the USDT has become a tool for Teda's cabbage, or whether the company actually uses the distribution of USDT to cut the cabbage?

过去泰达只是堂而皇之的利用了大多数人对于金融市场的不了解，同时赶上了一波时牛市的机会，疯狂收割韭菜而已。

In the past, Teda had merely taken advantage of most people's ignorance of financial markets, while catching up with a wave of bulls and cruising herbs.

1.发行USDT→推升币价→高位换手套现金2.发行USDT换取其他币种→打压币价→期货做空获利→进一步打低价格以阶段地板价吸筹然后再重复上一步骤，无限循环，整个市场完全被它这个空气币USDT牢牢的控死。

1. Issuance of USDT to boost the price of the currency and exchange the glove cash 2. Issuance of USDT in exchange for other currencies to press down the price of the currency and to make futures more profitable and to lower the price at a stage floor price and then repeat the last step, a cycle in which the entire market is completely controlled by its air currency USDT.

USDT被主流数字货币交易所承认，并开始流通，尤其是现在国内的炒币者，很多都是先到场外用人民币买入USDT，之后再择机用USDT去购买其他数字货币。

The USDT has been recognized by the mainstream digital currency exchange and has begun to circulate, especially now that many of the domestic money-spillers are out-of-the-place in order to buy USDT and then choose to use USDT to purchase other digital currencies.

USDT俨然成为了“入场”数字货币投机的安全通道,目前发行的市值已达到26多美元的市值了排名第八位，讽刺的是排在很多公链的前面。

The USDT is now ranked eighth in the market value of over US$ 26, ironically ahead of many public chains.

牛市的USDT除了本身保持兑换美元稳定，还可以成为市场波动的避风港。

In addition to maintaining its own stability in exchange for the United States dollar, the cattle market USDT can also serve as a safe haven for market fluctuations.

币圈的很多聪明的人，本着钱本位硬道理，尤其是有一部分短线的高手，他们在市场危险时，就将数字货币迅速换回USDT保值，等跌到低谷，又用USDT抄底。

Many of the smart people in the currency circle, in the hard sense of money, especially some of the short-line masters, quickly swap the digital currency back to the USDT when the market is at risk, and then fall to the bottom of the USDT.

Tether公司承诺，USDT持有者可以在通过公司认证后和缴纳5%手续费后，换回等额的美元，这是泰达公司的盈利。

Tether promised that USDT holders would be able to return the equivalent of the United States dollar after certification and payment of 5 per cent of the fee, which was the profit of Tedda.

当然，还有一些银行存款利息。

There are also, of course, interest on bank deposits.

5%的手续费、银行存款的利息，但这些在充满暴利的币圈，只是毛毛雨。

5 per cent of the charges, interest on bank deposits, but these are rife with windfalls in currency circles.

事情哪有这么简单。

Things aren't that simple.

在币圈，对USDT的质疑从未间断，而由来已久。

In the currency circle, the questioning of the USDT has never been broken and has a long history.

甚至还有一个针对Tether公司的独立调查账号，名为“Bitfinex’ed”。

There is even an independent investigation account for Tether called “Bitfinex'ed”.

他最早抛出了质疑，USDT不但可能是一个“空气币”，还可能是一手比特币价格的幕后推手。

He was the first to cast doubt that the USDT could be not only an “air currency” but also a front-runner of the Bitcoin price.

Tether的掌门人，同时也是注册于英属维金群岛的金融技术公司iFinex的CEO，而iFinex是世界三大数字货币交易所之一Bitfinex的母公司。

The head of Tether is also a CEO of iFinex, a British Virgin Islands financial technology company, and iFinex is the parent of Bitfinex, one of the world's three digital currency exchanges.

也就是说，USDT和Bitfinex之间，有牵扯不清的裙带关系，“甚至交易所Bitfinex可能会控制USDT的发行。”业内质疑称。

In other words, there is an indisputable nepotism between USDT and Bitfinex, “even the exchange Bitfinex may control the distribution of USDT.” Intra-industry challenge.

我们居然在相信一家公司，而且是一家不透明，可以暗箱操作的，如此来说，USDT比很多国家发行的纸币更不可靠，当我们在买入去中心化的比特币时，我们却要先买入一个中心化的USDT。

We believe in a company that is not transparent and can operate in a dark box, so that USDT is less reliable than banknotes issued by many countries, and when we buy decentralized bitcoins, we buy a centralized USDT first.

比特币的信徒，不相信中心化的央行，会相信一个极度中心化的USDT吗？

Bitcoin's followers don't believe in central central banks. Do they believe in an extremely central USDT?

另外就是，USDT的发行量也以惊人的速度扩大，这种速度越远超过了市场成长的速度，甚至USDT自己正在控制这个速度。

Also, the distribution of USDT has expanded at an alarming rate, which has outpaced market growth and even has been controlled by USDT itself.

2016年11月，USDT的发行量是690万美元。目前，USDT的发行市值为26亿多美元市值。15个月的时间，增长了近300倍。

In November 2016, USDT was issued at $6.9 million. At present, USDT is issued at a market value of more than $2.6 billion. In 15 months, it has increased nearly 300 times.

“Tether真的在银行存入26亿美元的保证金了吗？”看到如此暴涨的速度，业内开始出现大量质疑之声。

“Did Tether really deposit a $2.6 billion bond in the bank?” Seeing the speed of this surge, a lot of questioning began to emerge in the industry.

Tether的官方一直声称，自己肯定存了，但没拿出十足的证据。

Tether's official claims that he did, but did not provide sufficient evidence.

而唯一有点苗头的证据，居然是一个微博。

And the only piece of evidence that's kind of sprung up is a microblog.

1月19日，中国比特币场外交易的大户赵东在微博上晒出照片，证明其“亲眼所见”Tether和Bitfinex的美元账户中有超过30亿美元的存款，“完全破除外界谣言”。

On 19 January, Dodo Cho Dong, who traded outside of Bitcoin, China, posted a photo on Weibo, attesting to the existence of over $3 billion in deposits in the dollar accounts of Tether and Bitfinex, “all excepted rumours”.

而赵东自己是Bitfinex的股东，为利益相关方。

Zhao Dong himself is a shareholder of Bitfinex and a stakeholder.

今日，Bitfinex股东之一的赵东发布朋友圈说道：“大家不要再来问我usdt怎么了，按照Bitfinex自己的说法usdt是没问题的，但我无法对bitfinex进行担保，我只是倾向于相信Bitfinex。我们自己做场外交易，也只能按照市场价格交易，承担我们该承担的风险，赚我们该赚的钱。”

Today, Zhao Dong, one of the shareholders of Bitfinex, said, “Stop asking me what happened to usdt, and according to Bitfinex himself, wedt is fine, but I can't guarantee Bitfinex, and I'm just tending to believe Bitfinex. We're going to make an out-of-the-counter transaction, and we're just going to take the risks and earn the money we deserve at the market price.” ()

另一个有趣的细节是，USDT的发行与比特币的价格息息相关。

Another interesting detail is that the distribution of USDT is highly correlated with the price of bitcoins.

那份匿名调查报告显示，2017年3月29日至2018年1月4日，USDT总共增发了91次。

According to the anonymous investigation report, between 29 March 2017 and 4 January 2018, a total of 91 additional USDTs were issued.

而48.8%的比特币价格暴涨都发生在USDT增发后进入到Bitfinex钱包的两小时内。

The 48.8 per cent surge in bitcoin prices occurred within two hours of the increase in the USDT to Bitfinex wallets.

进入2018年以来总共增发了8次，越增发市场越是跌，这是泰达公司用USDT来换取大家手中的加密币筹码。

In total, eight more times since 2018, the more markets fall, and this is the crypto-currency chips that Tedda uses in exchange for USDT.

泰达公司就是我们的对手盘。

/strang'

泰达选择将币价打压至屡创新低，廉价收回市场上总数有限的BTC 、ETH,因为其控制了整个市场交易量第二的代币，同时操控了该代币与其他主流币之间的汇率。

Teda opted to push the currency price to a low level of innovation and to recover BTC and ETH at a cheap cost, as it controlled the second-largest currency in the market as a whole, while at the same time controlling the exchange rate between the currency and other mainstream currencies.

而牛市USDT存在着恶意拉高比特币价格，为某些比特币卖家套利的嫌疑。

On the other hand, the cow market USDT is suspected of maliciously pulling up the price of bitcoin and selling arbitrage to some bitcoin sellers.

大家开始质疑，USDT可能自行增发之后，大量购买比特币“囤货”，恶意拉升比特币。

It has begun to be questioned that the USDT may purchase a large amount of bitcoin “store” after it has increased itself and willfully raise bitcoin.

一个世界通过数字法币的定价权，恐怕不能随随便便交到一个公司手中。

A world that sets prices through digital coins cannot, I fear, be handed over to a company at any time.

26亿流动 USDT，Tether 账上有那么多钱吗？存在哪里？谁来审计？

USDT, Tether. Where does it exist? Who's going to audit it?

虽说泰达曾经要公开第三方审计，但是泰达一一而再再而三推迟第三方审计。

Although Tedda used to make a third-party audit public, it repeatedly postponed a third-party audit.

曾经在宣布和Friedman审计所合作8个月后突然取消，进一步破坏了Tether的形象。Tether对于取消给出的解释非常含糊其辞，只是提到了“审计过于麻烦”、“受到美国银行业的压力”等似乎有些无厘头的解释。

The image of Tether was further damaged by the sudden cancellation eight months after the announcement of cooperation with the Friedman audit firm. The explanation given by Tether for the cancellation was very vague, referring only to what appeared to be a somewhat ambiguous interpretation of “auditing too much” and “pressure from the United States banking industry”.

Tether到底在掩藏什么？

What the hell is Teth hiding?

从换手率和流通率来看，目前 USDT 流通的货币已经快撑不住币市的快速发展了，那么 Tether 团队肯定是要增发新的USDT才能满足市场的需求。

In terms of exchange rates and circulation rates, the currency currently in circulation in USDT is no longer able to sustain the rapid development of the currency market, so the Tether team will certainly have to add new USDTs to meet market demand.

按照 Tether 的承诺，每增发1个 USDT，就会往银行存 1 美元。在初期交易量不算大的时候，几百万、几千万的美元可以通过投资人、众筹等途径获得，但是按照现在的规模，最少都要发行上亿枚USDT，这些钱从哪来？存在哪？

In accordance with Tether's commitment, for every additional USDT, a dollar is deposited into the bank. At a time when the initial volume of transactions is not large, millions of dollars and tens of millions of dollars can be obtained through investors and public fund-raising, but on the current scale, at least hundreds of millions of USDTs have to be issued. Where does that come from?

目前 Tether 已经关闭了注册通道，也就意味着新的用户不能再通过使用借记卡、信用卡等方式往里面充值换取 USDT。

Currently, Tether has closed the registration channel, which means that new users can no longer use debit cards, credit cards, etc. in exchange for USDT.

2017 年 3 月底，Tether 团队曾在官网公示过资金储备，当时账上有 4400 万美元，这也是 Tether 团队最后一次真正把财务信息对外公布的日子。

At the end of March 2017, the Tether team disclosed the fund reserve on the web, with $44 million on the books, which was the last time that the Tether team actually made the financial information public.

同年 4 月，因为财务虚假问题，Tether 公司设立在台湾地区的 3 个银行账号都被封禁，这部分钱可能永远都拿不回来了。这就导致 1:1 挂钩美元的说法开始不成立。

In April of the same year, three bank accounts set up by Tether in the Taiwan area were blocked because of financial fraud, and this part of the money may never come back. This led to the beginning of a dissipation of the 1:1 dollar peg.

此后，因为缺少监管机构对于保证金制度以及押金使用的监管，虚拟法币公司可以在无监管地情况下增发货币。所有涉及财务的关键账户信息，都被抹去。

Since then, virtual French-currency companies have been able to issue additional currency without regulation because of the lack of regulatory oversight over the deposit system and the use of deposits.

2017 年 11 月，《纽约时报》报道USDT 团队可能超发泰达币，并且用超发的泰达币来炒作比特币。

In November 2017, The New York Times reported that the USDT team might oversend tadco and make bitcoin out of oversold tadco.

与此同时在 Medium 出现了一个专门调查 USDT 的作者@bitfinexed来怼 Tether 和 Bitfinex 团队。在一篇文章中，bitfinexed 表示 Tether 和 Bitfinex 团队的对话录音显示这两方正在讨论银行诈骗、洗钱、甚至承认金融诈骗的行为。

At the same time, a special investigation of USDT author @bitfinexed came to Téter and Bitfinex. In an article, bitfinex said that Tether and Bitfinex were talking about bank fraud, money laundering, and even recognition of financial fraud.

承认用壳公司在台湾地区的银行设立公司账户来转账，做一些躲躲藏藏的事情承认在自家的平台上进行交易。

The use of Shell's banks in the Taiwan region to set up corporate accounts for the transfer of funds and to do something to hide from their homes admitted to doing business on their own platforms.

Tether 官方也层表态，表示自己有钱存在银行，请投资者放心，但是却一直说空话拿不出有力的证据来支撑自己。

Tether also expressed the official view that he had money to own a bank and reassured investors, but said nothing to support himself with strong evidence.

然而 USDT 的中心化将带来和传统的中心化金融机构一样的问题，而且在没有监管机构对一个中心化的发币机构进行监管的前提下，超发、滥发、暗箱操作，完全不透明。壳公司、挤兑、提现困难。

However, the centralization of the USDT will raise the same problems as traditional central financial institutions, and, without the regulatory authority to regulate a centralized money-transfer agency, it will be inexcusable, abusive, clandestine, and completely opaque. Shell companies, run-off, and cash withdrawal difficulties.

因为 USDT 存在提现困难的问题，币圈已经开始避免从 Tether 提现，转而将手中的 USDT 购买其他货币后转换成其他监管不严的地区的美元，欧元等。

Because of the difficulties of the USDT, the currency circle has begun to avoid withdrawal from Tether and to convert the USDT in hand into dollars in other poorly regulated areas, euros, etc.

事实上，很多老韭菜是不用USDT的，用的也只是去年入场的新韭菜。

As a matter of fact, a lot of old pickles don't use USDT, and they just use the new pickles that came in last year.

据统计，ETH 钱包地址大户持仓数据，bitfinex钱包地址从7月的94万个，增加8月为止累计增加了34万个ETH，排名也从第六上升至第5位。

According to statistics, the ETH wallet addresses are large household holdings and the number of bitfinex wallets rose from 940,000 in July to a cumulative increase of 340,000 ETHs from 6th to 5th place in August.

顺变再说下，BTC富豪榜排名第一的钱包地址也是bitfinex交易所。

Besides, the BTC's first-ranked wallet address is also the Bitfinex Exchange.

在一个只有美元涨，其他的都跌的周期里

In a cycle where only dollars rise, the rest fall.

都跌是什么意思呢？翻译再白一点，USDT也会跌。

What do you mean, "strong" and "strong"? A little whiter, the USDT will fall.

2

和所有的英雄是时代的产物一样，USDT是一个特殊时期的产物。

Like all heroes are the product of the times, the USDT is the product of a special period.

过去很多国政府对数字货币和法币间交换采取严厉措施，法定货币（如美元、人民币）和数字货币的直接兑换的主力被驱赶到场外。场外交易流程繁琐，溢价高。

In the past, many governments have taken severe measures to exchange digital currency and French currency, and the main power of direct exchange of legal currency (e.g., the United States dollar, the renminbi) and digital currency has been driven out of the field. The off-site transaction process is cumbersome and the premium is high.

于是，USDT就流行起来。

So, the USDT pops up.

这只是一种理论上和美元1:1锚定的数字货币，由Tether公司与2015年开始发行。

This is merely a theoretical and US dollar 1:1 moored digital currency, which was launched by Tether in conjunction with 2015.

那如何保证这个锚定有效？保证严格的和美元1：1兑换？

How do we ensure that this anchor is valid?

Tether公司做法大概是借鉴了香港的做法，采用的是一种联系汇率的制度。

Tether's approach is presumably based on Hong Kong's approach and follows a system of linkage exchange rates.

和香港的联系汇率一样，他们发行USDT都要有美元做支撑，只不过是兑换比例不一样，香港发行7.84港元必须有一美元作为保证，而Tether公司发行一个USDT也需要一美元的保证。

As with Hong Kong's linkage exchange rate, they were required to issue US dollar-backed US$, but the exchange rate was different. Hong Kong issued HK$ 7.84 as a guarantee, while Tether issued a US$ 1 guarantee.

而非很多国内媒体瞎写的什么金本位。我们知道金本位是需要黄金的储备的，Tether公司显然没有黄金作为储备，更没有声称用金本位发行USDT。

Not what many domestic media have written about gold. We know that gold is a stock of gold, and Tether obviously does not have gold as a reserve, let alone claims to distribute USDT in gold.

因此，很多人说USDT的发行对于泰达来说是零成本发行的，想怎么玩都行，币的价格多高都没关系，对于泰达公司来说都是零成本换来的，只要是支持USDT交易对的币他们都可以玩，币的价格多低就疯狂吸币，两套操作手法换着整。

As a result, many people say that the distribution of USDT is no-cost for Tedda, that it's no matter how high the price of the currency is, that it's no-cost for Tedda, that they can play with the currency that supports the USDT deal, that the price of the currency is low, that the currency is crazy, and that the two methods of operation are different.

其实这是不准确的说法，要不就是这些人不懂得USDT的运作。

It's not an accurate statement, it's a fact that these people don't know what the USDT is doing.

作为一个发行USDT的主体，泰达公司即不具备金本位的黄金现货储备，也不具备任何一个国家的能力，因为国家的印钞是有税收的特权做保障的，而泰达公司显然是没有这种能力的。

As the subject of the release of USDT, Teda does not have a gold-based cash reserve, nor does it have the capacity of any country, since the printing of national currency is guaranteed by tax privileges, and it is clear that Tedda does not have such a capacity.

那些说Tether公司发行USDT是采用金本位的媒体他们是一点也不懂货币的发行，要不就是他们不知道他们不懂。

The media that say Tether issues USDTs are gold-based, they don't know anything about money, or they don't know what they don't.

很多人认为泰达公司现在就相当于美联储，执行央行一样的角色，他拥有无限制发钞的市场地位。

Many believe that the company is now equivalent to the Fed, performing the same role as the central bank, and that he has an unlimited market position for the issuance of banknotes.

然后用这些注水的空气币换走各位真金白银买来的币，换走那些真正有市场价值的币，想让市场升就升，想让市场跌就跌。这种说法也是不准确的，你这样做是高估泰达公司了，高估这个来回割你韭菜的对手盘了。

And then you trade these water-infested air coins for real silver and gold coins that have real market value, raise the market, drop it. It's also inaccurate to say that you overestimate Teda's company, overestimate the rivals that cut your pickles back and forth.

然而，泰达公司不可能成为美联储，事实上也成不了美联储，美联储是不可能破产的，试问泰达公司难道也不可能破产吗？

However, it is impossible for Teda to become a Fed and, in fact, a Fed. The Fed cannot be bankrupt. Is it not possible for Teda to be bankrupt?

相信你的心中已经有了答案，是一个否定。

Trusting that your heart already has the answer, it's a denial.

泰达公司起不到美联储的作用，它只是起到香港的货币局一样功能。货币局比美联储弱势很多。

Teda does not play the role of the Fed, but it does the same function as Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority, which is much more vulnerable than the Fed.

著名的货币大师诺贝尔经济学奖的主曾经说过，钉住的货币局制度不是一个可靠的制度。

The leader of the Nobel Prize for Economics, a famous currency master, once said that a pegged monetary authority system was not a reliable one.

他曾经言到，即使是最肮脏的浮动制度也好过钉住制度。

He had said that even the dirtiest floating system was better than nailing it.

历史上不香港采用钉住的货币局制度，历史上智利曾经也实行了这种制度，智利曾经在上世纪70年代发生了严重的通货膨胀，但是随后智利的财政部突然开窍，采取了盯住美元的制度。

Historically, Hong Kong had not adopted a punctured monetary authority system, which had been in place in Chile, which had experienced severe inflation in the 1970s, but which had been followed suddenly by a system of United States dollar-based attention by the Chilean Ministry of Finance.

于是智利的通货膨胀率大大的降低了，国家经济变好了，就业也上来了。

As a result, the inflation rate in Chile had dropped considerably, the country's economy had improved and employment had risen.

但是不幸的事情还是发生了，美国为了抑制70年代的通货膨胀，美联储主席沃尔克开始实行紧缩政策，这样盯住美元的智利比索相比其他国家的货币起来变得昂贵起来，于是智利的经济陷入了严重的衰退，迫于政治上的压力，曾经实行了钉住汇率的智利财政部长不得不辞职，随后智利也放弃了盯住了美元的制度，国家陷入了动荡。

Unfortunately, however, in an attempt to contain inflation in the 1970s, US Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker introduced a policy of austerity, so that the Chilean peso, which was pegged at the dollar, became more expensive than the currencies of other countries. The Chilean economy was plunged into a severe recession and, under political pressure, the Chilean Minister of Finance, who had to resign with the exchange rate pegged, then Chile abandoned the system of pegged at the dollar and the country was destabilized.

那么为什么同样是盯住汇率制度，香港可以呢？智利却不行？

Why, then, is it possible to keep an eye on the exchange rate system in Hong Kong, but not in Chile?

因为香港政府可以做到港元和美元的的兑换，说白了7.84港元只是1美元的另一个名称而已，香港货币局总能做到这一点。

Since the Hong Kong Government can exchange the Hong Kong dollar and the United States dollar, HK$ 7.84 is just another name for US$ 1, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority can always do so.

即使是在东南亚的金融危机也不例外。

is no exception even to the financial crisis in South-East Asia.

如果金管局看到市场上美元涨了或者说港币跌了，就用手里的美元，在市场上买入港币，我买得多了，港币对美元的价格不就涨起来了？

If the Authority sees the dollar rise or the currency fall in the market, use the dollar in hand, buy it in the market, I buy it a lot, and the price of the dollar rises?

反过来是一样的，如果我看见美元跌了，或者说港币涨了，这两个说法是一回事，我就在市场里卖出手里的港币，我卖得多了，港币就跌回去了。

The reverse is the same: if I see the dollar falling, or the Hong Kong currency rising, it's the same thing, I sell the money in my hand in the market, I sell it a lot, and the Hong Kong currency falls back.

香港金管局通过时刻盯紧市场价格，并且不停地在市场里操作，可以保持美元和港币的汇率钉死在1:7.8的水平，至今港元和美元的兑换还是这个水平。

By keeping an eye on market prices and operating continuously in the market, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is able to keep the exchange rate of the United States dollar and the Hong Kong currency nailed at the level of 1:7.8, which to date has been the level of exchange between the Hong Kong dollar and the United States dollar.

提到香港，我们不得不说这港元的攻击是从攻击泰铢开始的。

With regard to Hong Kong, we must say that the attack began with the attack on the Thai baht.

那么当年索罗斯是怎么攻击泰铢做空泰铢赚钱的呢？

So how did Soros attack the baht to make money?

索罗斯先跑到泰国，在市场里大量买入泰铢，买了400亿美元的泰铢，直到泰国市场上没有太多的泰铢筹码。

Soros first went to Thailand to buy the Thai baht in large quantities in the market and to buy the $40 billion Thai baht until there was not much Thai baht chips in the Thai market.

这时候我在期货市场上做空泰铢。

That's when I did the empty Thai baht on the futures market.

索罗斯下好了做空的头寸，就在市场上狂卖我屯好的泰铢。

Soros sold my well-stocked Thai baht on the market.

泰国金管局一看，有人在砸盘，泰铢在大跌，就用手里储备的美元买入泰铢。

As soon as the Gold Administration of Thailand saw it, the Thai baht had been smashed and the baht had fallen, buying the baht with the United States dollar reserves in its hands.

索罗斯继续砸，泰国金管局继续买。

Soros continues to smash and the Thai Gold Authority continues to buy.

索罗斯砸了300亿美元的泰铢，泰国金管局手里的美元用完了，他手里一共就300亿美元的储备啊。

Soros broke $30 billion in the Thai baht, and the Thai Gold Authority ran out of dollars, with a total of $30 billion in reserves.

索罗斯继续砸，继续卖，泰国金管局没钱买了，手里没美元了。

Soros continues to smash, sell and the Thai Gold Agency has no money to buy and no dollars in its hands.

于是泰铢就暴跌了，泰国就被打败了，泰铢的钉住汇率不得不贬值了。

The Thai baht fell, Thailand was defeated and the pegged exchange rate had to depreciate.

索罗斯在期货市场做空的头寸就赚了很多钱。

Soros made a lot of money in the futures market.

这样玩很爽，索罗斯又去马来西亚也玩了一遍，又赚了一波。

It was fun. Soros went to Malaysia again and made another wave.

有趣的是现在马来西亚当家的92岁马哈迪曾经在当时直接称索罗斯为强盗。在马哈迪眼中，索罗斯大概就是收割散户的USDT.

Interestingly, the 92-year-old Mahadi, who is now the head of Malaysia, called Soros a bandit at the time. In Mahadi's eyes, Soros is probably the harvester of the USDT.

马来西亚玩完，然后是印度尼西亚、菲律宾。

Malaysia is finished, followed by Indonesia and the Philippines.

然后索罗斯决定北上香港也想赚一波。

Then Soros decided to go north to Hong Kong to make a wave of money.

可是，香港金管局手里美元够多，而且那个时候香港刚刚回归，大陆市场还没有开放，香港加大陆的资金足以对抗索罗斯，足以保证港元和美元的兑换。

However, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority had enough dollars in its possession, and at that time Hong Kong had just returned, the mainland market had not yet been opened, and Hong Kong and mainland China had enough funds to fight Soros to guarantee the exchange of both the Hong Kong dollar and the United States dollar.

值得一提的是，为什么索罗斯突然要攻击泰国？

It's worth mentioning, why did Soros suddenly attack Thailand?

因为当时索罗斯的有两个手下一个是巴西人Fraga，一个是新西兰人Jones读到了1996年两位女经济学家写的分析智利等国家的货币盯住政策会是非常不稳定的，这样的看似美好的盯住政策，到了某个时刻就会变成定时炸弹。

Because two of Soros' men at the time were Brazilian Fraga, and one was a New Zealander Jones who read about the 1996 analysis of the monetary policies of Chile and other countries, as written by two women economists, which seemed like a good look at the policy, would have become a time bomb at some point.

两位女经济学家报告里边提到的国家大部分南美的国家，通货膨胀高，赤字率高，货币不稳定，报告没有提到东南亚国家。

Most of the countries in South America mentioned in the reports of the two women economists were characterized by high inflation, high deficit rates and currency instability, with no mention of South-East Asian countries.

但是那个时候东亚国家经济表现非常好，世界银行发表了东亚经济奇迹的报告，当然对东亚奇迹也有人质疑，08年的诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼就是提出了质疑，克鲁格曼提到了东亚经济是不可持续的，货币是不稳定的。

But the East Asian economies performed very well at that time, and the World Bank published a report on East Asian economic miracles, which were also questioned, of course, by the Nobel laureate in economics, Krugman, who referred to East Asian economies as unsustainable and unstable currencies.

于是，在全球寻找机卖空一生一次机会的索罗斯的两位手下于1997年1月，来到了泰国做调查。

As a result, two of Soros’s men, who were searching for a chance to sell a machine globally for a lifetime, came to Thailand in January 1997 for an investigation.

他们发现，泰国的情况确实和曾经智利等南美国家一样。是可以做空的。

They found that the situation in Thailand was indeed the same as in countries in South America as in Chile. It could be done empty.

他们在给索罗斯的报道里提到目前泰国的盯住的汇率制度面临压力，可以一战。

In their reports to Soros, they mentioned that the current Thailand-targeted exchange-rate regime was under pressure and could go to war.

于是，这两位手下建议索罗斯做空泰铢。

So the two men suggested Soros as an empty Thai baht.

随后索罗斯在市场上吸收了几百亿泰铢的筹码，然后卖空。

Soros then absorbed tens of billions of baht chips in the market and sold them empty.

随后东南亚国家变成了多米诺骨牌，一个一个倒下。这其中钉住的汇率制度是一个完美风暴的定时炸弹。

Then the South-East Asian countries became dominoes, one by one. The pegged exchange rate system was a perfect storm time bomb.

值得一提的是，后来1999年巴西遇到了同样的状况，Fraga临危受命，被巴西政府任命为央行行长。

It is worth mentioning that the same situation was subsequently experienced in Brazil in 1999, when Fraga was appointed President of the Central Bank by the Brazilian Government at risk.

太阳底下没有新鲜事。

There's nothing new under the sun.

很多人自以为是的认为，很多时候，在很多市场挂钩是不一样的，其实所有的钉住制度都是危险，都是未来市场的一颗定时炸弹。

It is the self-righteous view of many that, in many cases, linkages are different in many markets, and that all lock-in regimes are dangerous and a time bomb in future markets.

USDT也不会例外，何况还是一个特殊时期的产物。

The USDT will not be an exception, not to mention a product of a special period.

3

市场对于Tether的信心一直在消退。

The market's faith in Tether has been fading .

目前，某场外交易平台上USDT的价格每天都在创造新低。市场火爆的时候，USDT的场外交易溢价一度达到20%，而现已经开始贬值了5%，最低的时候跌破了0.9美元。

Currently, the prices of USDT on an off-site trading platform are creating new lows every day. At a time when markets burst, the off-site trade premium of USDT reached 20 per cent, and it is now starting to depreciate by 5 per cent, with the lowest falling by 0.9 dollars.

Tether发行的USDT是不可以“凭空”造出来的，而美联储可以。只不过是美元贬值一点点，但是泰达直接就是没有可以兑换的了。

The USDT issued by Tether can't be “empty” and the Fed can be. It's just a small depreciation of the dollar, but Teda simply has nothing to convert.

等到UDST开启挤兑的时候，那么这颗定时炸弹就要炸了。

挤兑的主要途径有以下几种：

The main routes of the run-off are the following:

1、通过Tether的合作支付渠道或者场外交易换回法币。目前大约会损失1.5%的手续费，以后费用很可能会升高。

At present, approximately 1.5% of the fees are lost, and the costs are likely to increase later.

2、在提供USD/USDT交易对的交易所（比如Kraken）换回美元。目前1 USDT能兑换大约0.985 USD，预计汇率会继续下跌。

2. Exchanges that offer USD/USDT transactions (e.g. Kraken) return to the United States dollar. Currently, 1 USDT is able to convert to about 0.985 USDD, and the exchange rate is expected to continue to decline.

3、在数字货币交易所用USDT买入其他加密货币保值。这会推动BTC等主流币的USDT价格上涨，并进一步拉开BTC/USDT与BTC/USD交易对之间的价差。Bitfinex等交易所虽然标注的是BTC/USD，但实际计价单位是USDT。这就是为什么最近Bitfinex的BTC单位价格超出Coinbase等支持真美元的交易所近100美元，实际上却并没有多少套利空间的原因。

3. Purchased other encrypted money on a digital currency exchange. This would drive the rise in prices in mainstream currencies, such as BTC, and further spread the price gap between BTC/USDT and BTC/USD transactions. Bitfinex and other exchanges, although marked by BTC/USD, actually account for USDT. That is why recently Bitfinex’s BTC unit price exceeded the Coinbase’s value of nearly $100 in support of real dollars, but actually has little scope for profit.

USDT这颗定时炸弹已经在滴答作响。

The ticking time bomb is ticking.

持有USDT用如何选择？在这个大熊市，别再指望它能回到1美元的高位，甚至还比美元高出溢价。

How do you choose to hold a USDT? In this big bear city, don't expect it to return to a dollar's height, or even over a dollar.

而BTC期货交易员要留心交易所的指数构成。比如Bitmex的最新比特币指数由Bitstamp、Coinbase Pro/GDAX、Kraken组成（权重相等），这三家都提供真美元交易，不会直接受USDT贬值的影响。而OKEX的BTC期货指数成分中有20%来自Bitfinex，所以做空交易会有更高风险。

BTC futures traders, for example, have to be careful of the index of the exchange. Bitmex’s latest bitcoin index is made up of Bitstamp, Coinbase Pro/GDAX, Kraken (equal weight), all of which offer real dollar transactions that are not directly affected by the depreciation of the USDT. And 20% of the BTC futures index component of OKEX comes from Bitfinex, so making empty transactions would be more risky.

Tether如果不改善运营透明度的话，USDT失信崩盘是迟早的事。届时将会对Bitfinex等依赖USDT的交易所产生巨大甚至毁灭性的冲击，引发整个数字货币市场的短期动荡。

Tether would sooner or later have lost faith in the USDT if it did not improve transparency in its operations. By that time, there would have been a huge, if not devastating, impact on exchanges such as Bitfinex, which depend on the USDT, triggering short-term instability in the entire digital currency market.