什么是未平仓合约指标?
What are the unsettled contract indicators?
未平仓合约(OI)是显示特定市场中未平仓合约数量的指标。但是,交易者不应将其与交易量混淆。
Unsaved contracts (OI) are indicators of the number of unsaved contracts in a given market. However, traders should not confuse them with the volume of transactions.
这意味着,当买卖双方达成协议时,就签订了合同并将其记录在OI指标中。在关闭或清算之前,该合同仍是OI阅读的一部分。在此期间,买卖双方可以按照合同的要求做任何事情。他们甚至可能会进一步出售。无论他们采取的其他行动如何,该单一合同都将保留。
This means that when the seller and seller agree, the contract is signed and recorded in the OI indicator. Before closing or liquidation, the contract is still part of the OI’s reading. During this period, the seller and buyer can do anything as required by the contract. They may even sell it further.
因此,OI的上升表明有新的资金投入市场。另一方面,OI指标下降表明市场正在亏损资金。
Thus, the rise in OI suggests that new funds are being invested in the market. On the other hand, the decline in OI indicators indicates that the market is losing money.
音量和OI之间存在差异。尽管除合同签订和关闭之外的所有其他动作都记录在交易量指示器中,但OI并非如此。
There is a difference between volume and OI. Although all actions other than contract signing and closing are recorded in the transaction volume indicator, OI does not.
什么是未平仓合约利好?
What's unsavory contract good?
就其本身而言,OI仅能执行我们先前描述的操作。然而,结合买卖量,交易员可以在OI上找到更多信息。
For its part, OI can only perform what we described earlier. However, in combination with the volume of sales, traders can find more information on OI.
这是一些模型。
These are some models.
买/卖交易量的未平仓量
Unspent quantity of purchase/sale transactions
假设OI指标下降,并且买/卖量读数显示出压倒性的抛售浪潮,这意味着交易者正在关闭其多头头寸合约。因此,在不久的将来,价格可能会下降。在这种情况下,我们可以期望看到很多长期清算。
Assuming that OI indicators are down and buying/sale reading shows an overwhelming wave of selling out, this means that traders are closing their multi-position contracts. Thus, prices are likely to fall in the near future. In this case, we can expect to see many long-term liquidations.
下面,我们在4小时的BitMEX BTC / USD图表中显示一个这样的示例。未平仓头寸的下降以及高交易量推低了价格。结果,清算仅在4小时内就清除了价值近1亿美元的长期合约。
Here, we show an example of this in the four-hour BitMEX BTC/USD chart. The decline in unsettled positions and the high volume of transactions pushed down prices. As a result, the liquidation cleared nearly $100 million worth of long-term contracts in just four hours.
未平仓头寸的下降以及高交易量推低了价格
The decline in unsettled positions and the high volume of transactions pushed down prices.
另一方面,如果OI上升且购买量压倒性多数,则交易员将签定新的多头头寸合约。因此,价格可能会上涨。
On the other hand, if OI rises and purchases are overwhelming, the traders will enter into new multi-position contracts. As a result, prices may rise.
这是两个最简单的模式。但是,其他更复杂的方案也是可能的。
These are the two simplest models. But other more complex programmes are possible.
例如,假设OI上升,但卖出量大于买入量。这意味着与做多者相比,开设空头头寸的交易者更多。尽管并非每次都这样,但在这种情况下,价格很有可能会下降。
For example, assuming an increase in OI, the volume of sales is larger than the volume of purchases. This means that there are more traders with empty positions than many.
下表显示了这样一个示例。OI的上升表明市场上有大量新资金涌入。然而,交易者正在做空合约,这通过买/卖量指标来描述。结果,价格暴跌,1亿多头被平仓。
The table below shows this example. The rise in OI shows a huge influx of new money in the market. However, traders are making empty contracts, which are described by buying/selling indicators. As a result, prices have fallen sharply, and more than 100 million headlines have been levelled.
未平仓合约表明趋势持续或逆转
Unsilvered contracts indicate a continuation or reversal of trends
正如我们已经说过的,未平仓头寸清楚地描述了流入或流出市场的现金量。因此,一些交易员认为,通过分析OI,他们可以预测市场走势。
As we have already said, unscathed positions clearly describe the amount of cash flowing into or out of the market. Thus, some traders believe that, by analysing OI, they can predict market trends.
例如,如果图表显示未平仓头寸的增加,则意味着新的资金流入正在进行中。因此,当前的市场趋势很可能会持续下去。
For example, if the chart shows an increase in unsettled positions, it means that new capital inflows are under way. As a result, current market trends are likely to continue.
另一方面,持仓量的下降可能预示着趋势的逆转,因为新的资金根本无法支撑它。最好的例子是下面的BitMEX永久4小时BTC / USD图表。一段时间以来,未平仓头寸跟随趋势。但是,在某一时刻OI开始下降。价格在短时间内仍然上涨。但是,没有新鲜的钱,这种趋势就无法跟上。因此,结果是趋势反转了(浅蓝色垂直线)。
On the other hand, the decline in warehousing may portend a reversal of the trend, because new funds simply cannot support it. The best example is the BitMEX permanent four-hour BTC/USD chart below. For some time, unsettled positions have followed the trend. But, at some point, OI has begun to decline. Prices have risen for a short period of time. But, without fresh money, this trend cannot be kept up.
未平仓合约表明趋势持续或逆转
Unsilvered contracts indicate a continuation or reversal of trends
未平仓合约和清算
Unsettled contracts and liquidations
也许您已经注意到我们几次提到与OI相关的清算。这是因为它们在某种程度上是相关的。
Perhaps you've noticed that we have referred to OI-related liquidation several times. That's because they're related to a certain extent.
每次清算都会将合同从市场中删除。因此,每个未平仓合约的未平仓指标都会下降。清算的合同越多,未平仓头寸下降的速度越快。
Each liquidation removes the contract from the market. As a result, the indicator for each unsaved contract falls. The more contracts are liquidated, the faster the unsavory position declines.
这与这些合约的多头或空头没有任何关系。如果空头被清算,则OI也会下降,就像多头时一样。因此,当按照未平仓头寸指标进行交易时,我们的建议不是过多关注蜡烛尖峰,而是关注整体趋势。
This has nothing to do with the size of these contracts. If the void is liquidated, the OI will fall, as if it were many. So, when dealing with unsettled positions, our advice is not to focus too much on candle peaks, but on overall trends.
这是我们正在谈论的一个完美示例:
This is a perfect example we're talking about:
在下表所示的3天时间内,清算关闭了大约4000万份合同。每次清算都与OI指标中的较长蜡烛相关。不过,总体价格趋势是积极的,未平仓合约也是这样。这意味着趋势可能会持续,并且经验丰富的交易者将持有多头头寸。
Within the three-day period shown in the table below, approximately 40 million contracts were closed for liquidation. Each settlement was linked to longer candles in the OI index. However, the overall price trend was positive, as was the case for unsettled contracts.
结论
Conclusions
就像任何其他指标一样,未平仓头寸与其他读数组合时最有用,在分析趋势时,最好还是使用一些其他指标(例如MACD和RSI)来寻找差异。
As with any other indicator, the unsettled position is most useful when combined with other readings, and it is preferable to use some other indicator (e.g. MACD and RSI) in the analysis of trends to look for differences.
最后,请注意,如今,交易者正在使用加密货币市场中的疯狂杠杆。这导致大量清算。因此,清算的数量可能并不代表市场大规模交易的清晰画面。
Finally, note that traders are now using the crazy levers in the crypto-currency market. This leads to large liquidations. Thus, the number of liquidations may not represent a clear picture of large-scale transactions in the market.
因此,始终负责任地进行贸易,并尝试尽可能多地了解技术分析。
Trade is therefore always conducted responsibly and attempts are made to obtain as much technical analysis as possible.
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