现货以太坊ETF推出，ETH或将下跌30%

6月23日，专注于加密货币的风险投资公司 Mechanism Capital 的创始人兼合伙人 Andrew Kang 表示，随着现货以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出，以太坊价格可能会跌至 2,400 美元。这一预言引发了市场的广泛关注和讨论。

On June 23,

, Andrew Kang, founder and partner of the venture capital company Mechanism Capital, which focuses on encryption currency, said that, with the launch of the spot as the Taiyo Exchange Trading Fund (ETF), the price could fall to $2,400. This prognosis generated widespread interest and debate in the market.

当前市场形势

Current market situation

据 CoinGecko 数据显示，目前以太坊的交易价格为 3,410 美元。如果价格跌至 2,400 美元，将意味着约 30% 的跌幅。Kang 认为，与比特币不同，以太坊吸引的机构兴趣较少，且现货以太坊转换为 ETF 的动力不足。

According to CoinGecko, the market price is currently US$ 3,410. If the price falls to US$ 2,400, it will mean a drop of about 30%. Kang argues that unlike Bitcoin, it attracts less interest from the community, and that there is insufficient incentive to convert it into an ETF.

Kang 在帖子中指出：“ETH ETF 能提供多少上涨空间？我不会争论太多。”他预计，以太坊价格将在 2,400 美元至 3,000 美元之间波动。

In his post, Kang said, "How much room can the ETH ETF offer for upswing? I won't argue too much." He predicted that the price would fluctuate between $2,400 and $3,000.

流量预期较低

Kang 预测，现货以太坊 ETF 吸引的流量仅为现货比特币 ETF 流量的 15%。这一比例与彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 和 James Seyffart 的估计相符，他们认为这一比例在 10-20% 之间。

Kang predicts that the spot ETF attracts only 15% of the spot ETF flow. This ratio corresponds to the estimates of the Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who consider it to be between 10 and 20%.

Kang 进一步解释，前六个月现货比特币ETF吸引了50亿美元的新资金流入，而现货以太坊 ETF 在同一时间段内“真实”流入的资金预计为8.4亿美元。

Kang further explained that the spot Bitcoin ETF for the first six months attracted $5 billion in new inflows, while the spot ETF was estimated at $840 million for “real” inflows over the same period of time.

市场预期过高

Kang 认为，加密货币投资者的期望被过度夸大，并与传统金融投资者的实际偏好脱节。他指出，现货以太坊 ETF 的价格已经超出了合理定价。

Kang argues that the expectations of encoded money investors are over-exaggerated and out of touch with the actual preferences of traditional financial investors. He points out that spot prices for ETFs have exceeded reasonable pricing.

尽管如此，并非所有人都同意 Kang 的价格预测。行业分析师 Patrick Scott（广为人知的 Dynamo DeFi）表示，他预计比特币 ETF 现货的表现会出现类似的方向性走势，但并不认为以太坊的价格会因此翻倍。

Despite this, not all agree with Kang’s price projections. Industry analyst Patrick Scott (the well-known Dynamo DeFi) said that he expected a similar directional trend in the performance of the ETF spot in Bitcoin, but did not think that it would double the price of Taiku.

长期展望

Long-term outlook

另一方面，资产管理公司 Van Eck 预测，到 2030 年，现货以太坊 ETF 可以帮助推动以太坊价格达到 22,000 美元。Kang 则持不同观点，认为以太坊目前的市盈率过高，与科技股类似。

On the other hand, the asset management company Van Eck predicts that, by 2030, the spot ETA ETF could help boost ETA’s prices to $22,000. Kang takes a different view, arguing that EEA’s current market surplus is too high, similar to that of the S&T Unit.

Kang 表示，以太坊作为去中心化金融结算层、世界计算机或 Web3 应用商店的推广有一定吸引力，但从数据来看，这是一种“强行推销”。他认为，以太坊目前的现金流和市盈率难以支撑其高估值。

Kang said that the introduction of Tai Pa as a decentralised financial clearing house, a world computer or a Web3 application shop was attractive, but it was a “compulsory marketing” from data. In his view, it was difficult to support its high valuation with its current cash flow and market rate.

市场营销和投资者兴趣

Marketing and investor interest

Kang 还指出，现货以太坊 ETF 获批时间较短，发行人向机构投资者进行营销宣传的时间有限，尽管 Bitwise 和 VanEck 是少数已发布以太坊主题广告并获得批准的以太坊 ETF 申请人之一。

Kang also noted that the spot ETF had been approved for a relatively short period of time and that the issuers had limited time for marketing to institutional investors, although Bitwise and Van Eck were one of the few ETF applicants who had issued ads on the ETA theme and had been approved.

Kang 补充说，从拟议的现货以太坊 ETF 中取消质押也可能会阻止投资者将现货以太坊转换为 ETF 形式。他还承认，贝莱德和其他金融机构已在以太坊上的现实世界资产代币化领域采取行动，但对其价格影响持保留态度。

Kang added that the removal of pledges from the proposed spot-based ETF might also prevent investors from converting them into ETFs. He also acknowledged that Belet and other financial institutions had taken action in the field of real world asset monetization, but had reservations about its price implications.

未来走势

Future trends

Kang 预测，未来 12 个月内 ETH/BTC 价格比可能会从当前的 0.054 下滑至 0.035。然而，他认为，比特币价格在未来六到九个月内上涨至 100,000 美元可能会“拖累”以太坊创下历史新高。

Kang predicts that the prices of ETH/BTC will fall from the current 0.054 to 0.035 over the next 12 months. However, he believes that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 over the next six to nine months, and that it may be “delayed” to reach an all-time high.

整体来看，现货以太坊 ETF 的推出可能对以太坊价格产生重大影响，投资者需密切关注市场动态，谨慎操作。

Overall, the introduction of spot-based ETFs could have a significant impact on ETA prices, and investors needed to follow market dynamics closely and operate with caution.