比特币未能延续今年以来一路高歌猛进的“牛市”势头，从5月中旬开始，连续出现多次大幅下跌，在5月19日更是一度跌至单枚29000美元左右的低点，几乎等同于一夜回到年初。尽管在5月24日有反弹迹象，但距离年内最高点仍近乎腰斩。
Bitcoin’s failure to build on the momentum of the “cow city,” which has sung so loudly since this year, began in mid-May with a series of large drops, which fell again to a low point of about $29,000 apiece on 19 May, almost equivalent to a one-night return to the beginning of the year. Despite signs of a rebound on 24 May, the highest point of the year is still near a beheading.
业内人士分析指出，包括比特币在内，整个加密货币市场的“狂欢”受惠于多国为应对疫情重振经济出台的宽松政策。在特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克等的推波助澜下，泡沫越吹越大，被提前透支。随着投机炒作风险回潮，监管重拳出击防范金融风险扩散正逢其时。被认为浪费能源的挖矿以及进一步放大风险的加杠杆，或将成为接下来整治的重中之重。
Industry sources have analysed that, including Bitcoin, the “crowding” of the entire crypto-currency market benefits from the easing of policies that have been put in place in many countries to revive the economy in response to the epidemic. The bubble is blowing up and overstretched, aided by the push of Tesla CEO Elon Mask.
“瀑布”之下难有完卵
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当比特币在4月中旬冲上单枚超过64000美元的历史最高点时，不少投资者开始憧憬着10万美元的暴富美梦。然而，现实来的却是如此残酷。
When Bitcoin hit a single historical peak of over $64,000 in mid-April, a number of investors began to dream of $100,000 in violent and beautiful dreams. Yet, reality is so cruel.
从5月13日开始，比特币价格接连大幅下挫，有时单日单枚价格就要跌去1万美元。在5月19日和23日，比特币单日跌幅均超过12%。仅仅一个月时间，价格就接近腰斩。在比特币“龙头”领跌下，以太坊、狗狗币等一众在此前炙手可热的加密货币全线暴跌，跌掉一半的尚属正常，跌去六七成的更是比比皆是，“币圈”一片哀鸿遍野。
Beginning on May 13, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, sometimes falling by $10,000 a single day. On May 19 and 23, Bitcoin fell by more than 12 per cent a single day. In just one month, prices were close to being cut off. Under Bitcoin's “long head”, the whole of the pre-existing hot, encrypted currency, such as the Etherkom and the Dogcoins, fell by half, and it was normal to fall by 60 or 70 per cent.
“行业里有不少‘大V’一直在鼓吹，回调是为了更好地反弹。恐怕他们自己都没料到，比特币下跌会来得如此之快、如此之狠。”让投资者刘鹏倍感后悔的是，自己未能在高点及时套现离场。然而更令他哭笑不得的是，在5月19日市场急速下跌后，他“看准时机”果断抄底，不料却抄在了“半山腰”，至今动弹不得。
“There are a lot of big Vs in the industry that have been preaching, echoing for a better rebound. I'm afraid they didn't expect that bitcoin would fall so fast and so harshly.” To the regret of the investor Liu Pengbe, he was unable to get out in time at the height. But to make him laugh, after the rapid fall of the market on May 19, he “watched the plane on time” scuffled in a decisive manner, and then he was caught on the back of the mountain.
“爱情来得太快，就像龙卷风”。如同周杰伦歌词中描述的那样，接连数次“瀑布”行情下，绝大多数投资者被席卷，少有独善其身者。
"Love comes too fast, like a tornado." As Jayon's lyrics describe, several times in a row, the vast majority of investors have been swept away, with few of them alone.
一些投资者向《经济参考报》记者“吐槽”，市场稍有风吹草动，就会加重恐慌，出现踩踏式出逃，带动市场进一步下跌。恐惧与贪婪指数是衡量加密货币市场焦虑程度的重要指标，该指数在5月24日为14，恐慌程度创下了近期新高。
Some investors “slurp” into the Economic Reference Journal journalists, and a little blow-up in the market will exacerbate the panic, lead to a step-by-step run, and drive the market to fall further. The Fear and Greed Index is an important measure of the level of anxiety in the crypto-currency market, which reached 14 on 24 May, and the level of panic has reached a recent high.
市场的无情在加杠杆后体现得更为淋漓尽致，大幅波动造成大量资金损失。据比特币家园网数据显示，在5月23日到5月24日的24小时内，有超过24万人爆仓，涉及市场爆仓资金约96.46亿元，近百亿元资金瞬间灰飞烟灭。
According to the Bitcoin Home Network, more than 240,000 people exploded in 24 hours between 23 May and 24 May, involving about $9.646 billion in market crash funds, and nearly $10 billion in money was wiped out.
马斯克频频“喊单带货”的狗狗币在5月19日一天的最大跌幅超过50%，最低跌至0.21美元，距离5月8日最高点0.74美元不到三分之一。市场近期大为推崇的以太坊同样上演“过山车”行情，仅用12天就跌去六成。
Mask’s frequent “single-coated” dog coins fell by more than 50% on May 19th, reaching a minimum of $0.21 and less than a third of the peak of $0.74 on May 8. The market’s recent big fang, Ether, has also played the same thing, falling by 60% in 12 days alone.
监管加码
Regulatory Plus
靠投资比特币幻想一夜暴富的美梦如同泡沫一般，经不起考验。及时刺破泡沫，有助于唤醒迷失的投资者，更能防止风险从个人向社会进一步传导扩散。
By investing in bitcoin, the dream of a one-night boom is like a bubble that cannot stand the test. By piercing the bubble in a timely manner, it helps to awaken lost investors and prevents the risk from spreading further from the individual to society.
5月18日，中国互联网金融协会、中国银行业协会、中国支付清算协会三部门联合发布《关于防范虚拟货币交易炒作风险的公告》，在2013年、2017年相关文件的基础上加码，表态“虚拟货币是一种特定的虚拟商品，不由货币当局发行，不具有法偿性与强制性等货币属性，不是真正的货币，不应且不能作为货币在市场上流通使用”。
On 18 May, the three branches of the China Internet Finance Association, the China Banking Association and the China Payment Settlement Association jointly issued a Notice on Protection against the Risk of Fashioning Virtual Currency Transactions, adding to the relevant documents in 2013 and 2017, stating that “virtual currency is a specific virtual commodity that is not issued by monetary authorities, has no monetary attributes, such as legality and compulsoryity, is not a real currency and should not and cannot be used as a currency in the market”.
有行业人士指出，更让“币圈”感到寒意的是，公告中明确表示“开展法定货币与虚拟货币兑换及虚拟货币之间的兑换业务、作为中央对手方买卖虚拟货币、为虚拟货币交易提供信息中介和定价服务、代币发行融资以及虚拟货币衍生品交易等相关交易活动，违反有关法律法规，并涉嫌非法集资、非法发行证券、非法发售代币票券等犯罪活动”。目前，有相当一部分交易所尽管注册在海外，但无论是交易页面还是出金方式，对国内投资者显得“过分友好”，本质上面向的主要投资者仍然来自国内，这显然与公告要求背道而驰。
It has been pointed out that the “currency circle” is more chilled by the fact that the bulletin expressly states that “the conduct of exchange operations between legal and virtual currency exchange and virtual currency exchange, the purchase and sale of virtual currency as a central counterparty, the provision of information intermediaries and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, the financing of currency issuance and the trading of virtual money derivatives violates the relevant laws and regulations and is suspected of criminal activities such as the illegal collection of funds, the illegal distribution of securities, the illegal sale of currency coupons, etc..” At present, a significant number of exchanges are registered abroad and appear “excessively friendly” to domestic investors, whether on the transaction page or in the form of a payment.
5月21日，国务院金融稳定发展委员会第五十一次会议上，继续强调坚决防控金融风险，“打击比特币挖矿和交易行为，坚决防范个体风险向社会领域传递”。这进一步释放了强化监管、坚决防范风险扩散的强力信号。值得注意的是，“影子银行”及P2P风险也曾是国务院金融稳定发展委员会关注的重点。尤其是曾经风光无限的P2P，如今退出了历史舞台。
On 21 May, at the fifty-first meeting of the State Council’s Financial Stability and Development Committee, emphasis was placed on the need to combat financial risks, “to combat the mining and trading of bitcoin, and to prevent individual risks from being transmitted to the social sphere.” This further sent a powerful signal of enhanced regulation and a firm response to the spread of risks.
清华五道口金融学院副院长张晓燕表示，比特币等加密货币的监管政策是为了保护中小投资者，保护散户投资者的血汗钱。“加密货币交易缺乏有效监管，价格容易被操纵，导致价格忽上忽下、波动剧烈。中国的散户数量很多，中小投资者的共性是金融知识少，对加密货币的了解不够深刻。”
According to Zhang Xiaoyan, Vice-President of the Qinghua Five-Do Financial Institute, the regulatory policy for encrypted money, such as Bitcoin, is to protect small and medium-sized investors and the sweaty money of large-scale investors. “Scene currency transactions are not effectively regulated, prices are easily manipulated, causing price volatility and volatility.
除国内监管及时出手，这波下跌也与马斯克有着脱不开的干系。一位行业研究者透露，这轮“牛市”有三波推手，可以称之为“机构牛”：灰度投资掀起了第一波浪潮，微策略等西方机构接力掀起第二波，马斯克力挺与特斯拉拿出15亿美元购买比特币则可以视为第三波。不过，不知出于何种目的，马斯克在比特币风头正盛之时突然抛出了对比特币环保问题的攻击，对比特币行情形成重创。
In addition to domestic regulation, the wave of decline is also indistinguishable from Mask. An industry researcher has revealed that the round of “cows” has three waves, which can be described as “institutional cattle”: the first wave of greyscale investment, the second wave of a Western institutional connection, such as a micro-strategy, and the third wave of a Musklik’s profit from Tesla’s $1.5 billion to buy bitcoins.
挖矿及加杠杆亟待整治
Mining and leveraging is urgently needed
随着监管及时出手保护投资者，狂躁的“币圈”已有明显降温迹象。不过，为避免不甘心者卷土重来，肆意操纵市场，后续监管细则仍有较大概率依次落地。从当前表现突出的问题看，对加密货币挖矿及加杠杆交易开展整治或成为当务之急。
But, in order to avoid a resurgence of unsatisfied market manipulation, there is still a high probability that subsequent regulatory rules will fall into place. In the light of today’s outstanding problems, it has become a matter of urgency to regulate the mining and leveraging of encrypt currency.
我国已经宣布，将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。这是基于推动构建人类命运共同体的责任担当和实现可持续发展的内在要求作出的重大战略决策。
My country has announced that it will strive to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which is a major strategic decision based on the inherent requirement to assume responsibility for and achieve sustainable development through the promotion of a community of human destinies.
以高耗能为代表的比特币等加密货币挖矿与这一目标显然格格不入。近日，内蒙古全面清理关停加密货币挖矿项目，设立挖矿企业举报平台，掀开了比特币挖矿耗电的冰山一角。据剑桥大学替代金融研究中心的研究，截至2021年5月10日，全球比特币挖矿的年耗电量大约是149.37太瓦时。
Recently, in Inner Mongolia, a complete clean-up of the encrypt money mining project and the establishment of a reporting platform for mining companies have opened the tip of the iceberg in which the mine is powered. According to a study by the University of Cambridge Center for Alternative Financial Research, the annual electricity consumption of the mine as of 10 May 2021 was approximately 149.37 watt-hours.
当然，挖矿不仅消耗大量电能，更加剧了二氧化碳的排放量。研究人员在国际知名期刊《自然气候变化》上发表的论文显示，去年挖矿产生了6900万吨二氧化碳，占全球排放量的1%，20年内将全球气温提高2℃。从环保角度而言，打击肆意挖矿是必要之举。
Mining, of course, not only consumes large amounts of electricity, but also increases CO2 emissions. Researchers’ papers published in the internationally renowned journal Natural Climate Change show that mining produced 69 million tons of carbon dioxide last year, accounting for 1% of global emissions, and raised global temperatures by 2°C in 20 years.
除此之外，加杠杆进一步放大了交易风险，同样应成为整治的重点。
In addition, leverage has further magnified transaction risks and should likewise be the focus of the solution.
投资者周先生在5月19日的经历颇有代表性。他在今年1月携50万元资金进场，梦想拥抱“牛市”大赚一笔。顺着初期市场疯狂炒作的大潮，周先生的资金一度冲上300万元的高度。然而5月19日“瀑布”行情到来，资金瞬间大幅缩水，几乎每隔几分钟就有上万元蒸发。不甘心资金大幅回撤，他急于通过几十万一单加杠杆十倍抄底，却不料市场深度探底，300万元资金在一个多小时内全部蒸发。如今回看，整个过程就如同一场梦。
The investor Mr. Zhou’s experience on May 19 was representative. He came in with half a million dollars in January this year, hoping to embrace the “cow market” and earn a fortune. Following an initial wave of market frenzy, Mr. Zhou’s money was at a height of $3 million.
“不少投资者往往抱着‘一夜暴富’的心态，交易杠杆通常会放大到5倍甚至更高，在价格波动较大的情况下，投资者交易风险巨大。”一位业内专家深恶痛绝地指出。在交易平台普遍在海外注册的当下，对加杠杆交易先行尽快采取有力措施，有助于及时控制风险，更是将一些疯狂的投资者从悬崖边上救回来。
“Many investors tend to be ‘nightly rich’ in a mentality where trade leverage tends to be five times or even higher, and where price volatility is high, investors are at great risk of trading.” One industry expert pointed out with deep sadness. In a time when trading platforms are generally registered overseas, the use of fast-track measures to leverage transactions can help to contain risks in a timely manner, and to save some crazy investors from the edge of a cliff.
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