排名 |
币种名 | 美元价格$ | 24H涨跌幅 |
流通市值$ |
初始发行价 |
24h最高价 |
24h最低价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BTC比特币 |
$66,029.67 | -0.52% | 12978.2亿 | $0.0025 | $66,943.64 | $65,980.24 |
为什么比特币减产能有牛市呢?因为在比特币历史上，前两次减产都出现了牛市。比如：比特币第一次减产时，减半前376天，涨了5倍;减半后367天，涨了92倍。而第二次减产时，减半前540天，涨了2.3倍;减半后525天，也就是很多人经历过的16、17年的大牛市，涨了29倍。虽然第二次减产涨幅已经远远不及第一次减产的涨幅，但也带来万币齐发的盛景。
For example, when Bitcoin cut production for the first time, it doubled by five times in the first 376 days; when it cut production for the second time, it doubled by 92 times in the second 367 days; when it halved production for the second time, it doubled by 2.3 times in the second 540 days; and when 525 days, that is, the 16-17-year-old cow market, it increased by 29 times. Although the second cut fell far short of the first one, it also led to a boom of 10,000 yuan.
第三次减产应该从2019年低点算起，到减产前8620美金，已经上涨了177%，接近上一次减产前的一半。而减产后到目前也就再涨25%左右，离上一次29倍的涨幅还差距较大。
The third reduction, which should start at a low point in 2019, to $8620 before childbirth, has risen by 177%, close to half of the previous drop. The drop in the postnatal period is now about 25%, a significant difference from the previous 29-fold increase.
所以从比特币历史上看，这样分析没什么问题。但如果把眼光再扩大一个区域，不难发现2013年和2017年比特币上涨还有别的原因。
So, in Bitcoin’s history, there is no problem with this analysis. If you look at another region, there are other reasons for the increase in bitcoin in 2013 and 2017.
回顾以往的两次减产，比特币减产行情确实值得期待。
Looking back at the two previous reductions, the decline in Bitcoin was indeed to be expected.
2012年11月28日，比特币第一次减产。减产前一年，市场价格从3美元涨到了10美元;减产后，比特币直接开启从10美元到200美元的大牛市，涨幅高达20倍。
On 28 November 2012, Bitcoin lost production for the first time. One year before childbirth, market prices rose from $3 to $10; after childbirth, Bitcoin directly opened the bull market from $10 to $200, a 20-fold increase.
2016年7月9日，比特币第二次减产。减产前一年，市场价格从300美元涨到了1000美元;减半后，比特币开启了从1000美元到20000美元的大牛市，涨幅又是20倍。
On July 9, 2016, Bitcoin reduced production for the second time. One year before the birth, market prices rose from $300 to $1,000; after halving, Bitcoin opened a big cattle market from $1,000 to $20,000, a 20-fold increase.
大概2020年5月12日，比特币进行第三次减半。自2019年年初以来，比特币价格从3000美元涨到了14000美元，目前回调到10000美元附近，减半前基本跟前两次减半前的涨幅类似。
By about 12 May 2020, Bitcoin was halved for the third time. Since the beginning of 2019, the price of Bitcoin has risen from $3,000 to $14,000 and is now back close to $10,000, roughly the same as before the first two halves.
2012年——2014年活跃用户从14K增长到143K，增长了14倍;
2012 - 2014 - 14 times the number of active users increased from 14K to 143K;
2014年——2016年活跃用户从143K增长到400K，增长了2.79倍;
2014 - 2016: the number of active users increased from 143K to 400K, a 2.79-fold increase;
2016年——2018年活跃用户从400K增长到1132K，增长了2.83倍;
2016 - The number of active users increased from 400K to 1132K in 2018, a factor of 2.83;
2018年——至今，活跃用户从1132K回落至800K，到2020年，比特币的活跃用户能达到多少?现在我不知道，但是我认为会继续增长。尤其是比特币期货、比特币ETF等更多金融衍生品上线后。
2018 – To date, active users have fallen from 1132K to 800K, and by 2020, how much bitcoin active users can reach? Now I don't know, but I think it will continue to grow. Especially after more financial derivatives such as bitcoin futures, bitcoin ETFs, etc. go online.
第一次减产前，比特币每天有7500-8000BTC的新币供应;
For the first time before birth, Bitcoin has a new supply of 7500-8,000 BTC per day;
第二次减产前，比特币每天有3700-4000BTC的新币供应;
For the second time before birth, Bitcoin is supplied with new currency of 3700-4000 BTC per day;
第三次减产前，比特币每天有1900-2000BTC的新币供应;
For the third time before birth, Bitcoin is supplied with fresh currency of 1900-2000BT per day;
第三次减产后，比特币新增日供应将下降到1000BTC左右。
After the third reduction, the additional daily supply of Bitcoin will fall to about 1,000 BTCs.
比特币第一次减产时，价格是13美元，第一次减产后一段时间，相当于在那段时间减少了5.2w美元的边际供应;
The price of Bitcoin was US$ 13 at the time of the first reduction in production, which was equivalent to a reduction in the marginal supply of US$ 5.2w during that period;
比特币第二次减产时，价格是650美元，第二次减产后一段时间，相当于在那段时间减少了130w美元的边际供应;
At the time of the second cut in Bitcoin, the price was US$ 650 and at the time of the second reduction in the postpartum period, equivalent to a reduction in the marginal supply of US$ 130w during that period;
比特币第三次减产时，假设价格是10000美元，则边际供应将下降1000w美元。
At the time of the third cut in Bitcoin, assuming a price of $10,000, the marginal supply would fall by $1,000w.
1)2013年的塞浦路斯
1) Cyprus 2013
比如2013年比特币上涨的背后是存在着塞浦路斯的货币危机，当时塞浦路斯政府无力救助本国银行危机，求助国际。最后欧盟、欧洲央行及国际货币基金组织同意给塞浦勒斯100亿欧元的贷款，条件是该国的银行必须向银行储户征收存款税，从中筹集58亿欧元。
For example, behind the 2013 Bitcoin rise was the currency crisis in Cyprus, when the Cyprus government was unable to bail out its own banking crisis and turn to the international community. Finally, the EU, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund agreed to lend Cyprus €10 billion, provided that the country’s banks were obliged to collect €5.8 billion from the deposit tax on bank depositors.
塞浦勒斯银行业重组方案：第二大银行国民银行将关闭，10万欧元以下储户的钱被转移到第一大银行塞浦勒斯银行，10万欧元以上的储户有10万欧元会被转移，不受损失，10万以上部分被冻结用来解决债务问题，这部分几乎将损失殆尽。
The Sierra Leone Banking Restructuring Programme: The second largest bank, the National Bank, will be closed, less than 100,000 euros will be transferred to the first largest bank, and more than 100,000 euros will be transferred without loss, and more than 100,000 parts will be frozen to solve the debt problem, which will almost be lost.
由于塞浦勒斯的民众恐慌，争先把本国货币换成比特币，所以造成比特币的飙涨。
As a result of the popular panic in Cyprus and the competition to exchange the national currency for bitcoin, Bitcoin surged.
2)2017年的以太坊和1CO
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