比特币以POW机制运行，随着挖矿参与者增多，挖矿难度不断攀升。这意味着矿工需加大投入，包括更高级别的矿机、更高的电费等，从而推高挖矿成本。然而，每四年一次的比特币减半事件将区块奖励砍半，使得在成本提升的同时，矿工能获取的比特币数量却显著减少。
Bitcoin operates with a Pow mechanism, increasing the difficulty of mining as the number of diggers increases. This means that miners need to invest more, including higher-level machines, higher electricity, etc., to push up the cost of digging.
尽管有观点认为若比特币价格不涨，挖矿便无利可图，但实际情况更为动态。若币价低于挖矿成本，矿工可以选择暂时停机，降低全网挖矿难度，进而拉低挖矿成本，直至市场重新达到平衡状态。
Despite the argument that mining is unprofitable if the price of bitcoin does not rise, the reality is even more dynamic. If the price is lower than the cost of mining, miners can opt for a temporary stoppage to reduce the difficulty of digging all over the net, thereby lowering the cost of digging until the market returns to equilibrium.
挖矿成本并非决定比特币价格上涨的唯一因素，供需关系才是核心所在。比特币减半意味着供应量骤降，如果市场需求持续增加，供需失衡将推动价格上涨。前几次减半时，分别伴随了ICO热潮、DeFi Summer等加密货币领域的重大发展，吸引了大量资金入场。
The cost of mining is not the only factor that determines the price increase in bitcoin, but the supply-demand relationship is the core. Halving bitcoin means a sharp drop in supply, and if market demand continues to increase, the demand-demand imbalance will drive the price increase.
二、新一轮减半行情展望及布局策略1. 新资金涌入与创新叙事的重要性
1. The importance of new capital inflows and innovative narratives
比特币在2024年将迎来第四次减半，届时供应量将进一步收缩。然而，价格是否上涨还需关注市场需求的增长以及新的投资叙事。如同春雨催生万物生长，加密货币领域也需要崭新的应用或生态爆发来吸引外部资金。当前，比特币ETF获批的可能性以及真实资产上链（RWA）、资产代币化等趋势的酝酿都可能成为引领下一波牛市的洪流，为市场注入新鲜活力。
Bitcoin will be halved for the fourth time in 2024, with further contractions in supply. Whether prices rise, however, will require attention to the growth of market demand and new investment narratives.
同时，过去牛市中的热点如ICO、公链之争、DeFi、NFT等叙事虽历经熊市沉淀，但在恰当的时机或将再度崛起，带来市场的繁荣。
At the same time, narratives such as ICO, public chain contests, DeFi, NFT and others in the past fell through the bear market, but at the right time or at the same time will re-emerge, bringing prosperity to the market.
2. 宏观环境的协同作用
2. Synergy in the macro-environment
除了内部叙事之外，宏观环境的影响也不容忽视。如今加密货币与传统金融市场的关联度日益增强，其行情往往受到全球货币政策、股市波动等因素的影响。例如，在美联储加息周期结束后可能出现的新一轮宽松政策，以及其他国家政府对比特币和加密货币态度的转变，均是预判未来市场走势的重要考量因素。
The impact of the macro-environment, in addition to internal narratives, cannot be ignored. The increasing relevance of encrypted currencies to traditional financial markets is now often influenced by global monetary policy, stock market volatility, and so on.
三、牛市疯狂程度及百倍币的探寻路径回顾上一轮牛市，比特币第三次减半后，其价格一路飙升，最高涨幅达八倍之多。考虑到比特币市值已相当庞大，未来再现几十倍涨幅的可能性相对较低。但其他加密货币在市场热情的驱动下仍有较大增值空间，不过受限于比特币的龙头地位，涨幅或许有限。
Looking back at the last round of cattle, when Bitcoin was halved for the third time, its prices skyrocketed, up to eight times the maximum. Given the already large market value of Bitcoin, the likelihood of a few dozen more increases in the future is relatively low.
值得注意的是，在上一轮牛市中，不乏市值翻百倍的加密货币案例，如以太币ETH和Cardano ADA，甚至刚上市不久的SOL也实现了超过四百倍的增长。而在市值前600大的加密货币中，共有61个实现百倍增长，证明百倍币并非遥不可及的梦想。
It is worth noting that in the last round of cattle, there have been 100-fold increases in encrypted currency cases, such as Ether and Cardano ADA, and even in the recent market, SOL, which has grown more than 400 times. Of the top 600 encrypted currencies, 61 have increased 100-fold, proving that 100-fold is not a distant dream.
寻找下一个百倍币，可以重点关注两个维度：
Looking for the next $100, you can focus on two dimensions:
市值与全稀释估值分析
对于市值较大的项目而言，继续大幅上涨的空间相对较小。因此，筛选百倍币应从市值较小且具备发展潜力的项目入手，结合完全稀释估值（FDV）进行综合判断。
For projects with higher market value, there is still relatively little room for significant increases. Therefore, the screening of 100-folds should start with projects with smaller market value and potential for development, combined with a fully diluted valuation (FDV).
赛道类别选择
track category selection
具有百倍成长潜力的项目通常扎根于有实际需求和市场规模的赛道中。五大热门赛道——公链、多链、迷因币、支付币、稳定币，可作为初步筛选的目标。深入研究项目的商业模式、经济模型、团队实力和技术进展等因素，则有助于进一步锁定潜在的百倍币。
Projects with a 100-fold growth potential are usually rooted in races with real demand and market size. Five hot lanes – fair chains, multi-chains, mescasses, coins, and stable currency – can serve as targets for initial screening.
此外，紧跟行业领军人物的观点亦可洞察新兴赛道。比如V神提出的以太坊三大革新方向（Layer 2、AA钱包、隐私），以及CZ关于DeFi在未来有望超越CeFi的看法，都揭示了值得投资者密切关注的赛道。
In addition, the idea of keeping abreast of industry leaders can be seen in the emerging races. For example, the three innovative directions of the Etherms (Layer 2, AA wallet, privacy) proposed by V God, as well as the view of the CZ that DeFi is likely to outperform CeFi in the future, reveal a track that deserves close attention from investors.
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