文/赵奕
Man/Cho
与2022年极具破坏性的市场环境截然不同，2023年，比特币似乎开始从寒冬开始走向春天。
In contrast to the devastating market environment of 2022, Bitcoin appears to have begun to move from cold to spring in 2023.
数据显示，这一年，加密货币整体市值已增长90%达到1.69万亿美元，其中比特币的价格从2023年1月的年度低点1.6万美元上涨了一倍多，一度突破4.3万美元，全年涨幅超160%。但略显可惜的是，目前比特币的交易价格相较于2021年11月创下的近6.9万美元的纪录仍有较大距离。
The data show that the overall market value of encrypted currencies increased by 90 per cent to $1.69 trillion during the year, with the price of Bitcoins more than doubled from an annual low of $16,000 in January 2023, a one-time breakthrough of $43,000, an increase of over 160 per cent over the year. But, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin’s transaction prices are still far from the record of almost $690 million in November 2021.
在2023年，以太坊成功完成上海升级，转变为完整的权益证明网络；Ripple赢得诉讼，XRP被裁定为不是证券；PayPal推出PYUSD稳定币，加密行业迎来了多次重大改变。但与此同时，3月硅谷银行破产、稳定币USDC出现脱锚，11月FTX案件迎来判决，一系列事件的发生也让市场重新审视加密金融的风险。
In 2023, Taipa successfully upgraded Shanghai into a complete network of proof of interest; Ripple won the litigation, XRP was found not to be a security issue; PayPal launched PYUSD’s stable currency, and the encryption industry experienced a number of major changes. At the same time, however, Silicon Valley’s bank broke down in March, stabilizing the currency USDC, and the FTX case came to judgement in November, and a series of events led the market to revisit the risks of encryption finance.
ETF撑起半边天
回顾过去一年，加密市场发生了多起影响深远的法律诉讼。
Looking back over the past year, there have been a number of far-reaching legal proceedings in the encryption market.
7月13日，Ripple在同美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的诉讼中取得了阶段性胜利。该诉讼始于2020年12月，判断Ripple出售的13亿美元XRP代币到底是不是证券是本次诉讼的关键。经过三年的鏖战，美国联邦法官最终才裁定Ripple出售XRP代币并未违反联邦证券法，认为XRP在许多方面未达证券标准。该裁决很可能为未来的代币分类案件树立先例，加密市场因此沸腾，XRP价格从0.47美元涨至0.82美元，创下了自2018年1月以来新高。
After three years of war, United States federal judges finally found that Ripple sold the XRP in no way violated federal securities law, arguing that XRP had failed to meet securities standards in many respects. The decision was likely to set a precedent for future currency classification cases, with the resulting boom in the cryptographic market and an increase in the price of XRP from 0.47 to 0.82 since January 2018.
在败给Ripple的一个多月后，美国SEC在同灰度的诉讼中再次败北。该案件源于2021年10月，灰度首次申请将其封闭式的比特币信托基金GBTC转换为比特币现货ETF，但遭到了SEC的拒绝。法官判决，SEC最初拒绝灰度的ETF申请是“任意和反复无常的”，行政机关对作出的行政行为必须一视同仁，比特币期货ETF批准的逻辑应该等于比特币现货ETF批准的逻辑。
The case arose in October 2021, when the Greyscale first applied to convert its closed Bitcoin Trust GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF, which was rejected by the SEC. The judge ruled that the original rejection by the SEC of the Greyscale ETF application was “arbitrary and volatile” and that the administrative authorities must treat the administrative action taken equally, and that the logic of the Bitcoin future ETF approval should be the same as that of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
“2023年是比特币的‘整理年’。”北京计算机学会数字经济专委会秘书长王娟向《华夏时报》记者表示，监管关注下的比特币市场面对平台出现的各种事件和问题，并没有停止发展，在技术、应用等各赛道的创新之外，积极寻求政策博弈正向结果，不断发声寻求核心突破，ETF在积极突破新的监管困难。
“2023 is the ‘year of consolidation’ of Bitcoin.” Wang Jun, Secretary-General of the Beijing Computer Institute’s Ad Hoc Committee on Digital Economy, told the Washington Times journalists that the regulated Bitcoin market, faced with events and problems arising from the platform, had not ceased to develop, and that, in addition to innovations in various races, such as technology, applications and so forth, it was actively pursuing policy games that were yielding results, constantly calling for core breakthroughs, and that the ETF was actively breaking new regulatory difficulties.
正如王娟所说，近期比特币的价格始终稳定在4万美元上方，势必要归功于市场对现货ETF的期待。
As Wang Jun said, the price of Bitcoin has remained stable over $40,000 in recent times, thanks to market expectations of spot ETFs.
今年6月，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德（Blackrock）提交比特币ETF申请，加密市场的热情瞬间被点燃，推动比特币价格从2.5万美元一路涨至3万美元。在贝莱德之后，WisdomTree、Invesco、富达等资管公司也纷纷提交比特币现货ETF申请。
Last June, the biggest asset management company in the world, Blackrock, submitted a Bitcoin ETF application, and the enthusiasm of the encryption market was ignited at once, pushing Bitco’s price to rise from $25,000 to $30,000. After Belet, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fuda, etc., also filed a Bitco spot ETF application.
事实上，美国金融机构与监管之间就比特币现货ETF的申请已经博弈了数年，据不完全统计，目前在申的13家申请机构，已经和SEC进行了24次会议讨论ETF细节。尽管SEC多次推迟了对比特币现货ETF的决议时间，10月16日更传出了SEC批准贝莱德旗下iShares比特币现货ETF的假消息，但市场依旧认为，比特币现货ETF的批准只是时间问题。
Indeed, US financial institutions and regulators have been playing games for several years between their applications for the Bitcoin spot ETF, and, according to incomplete statistics, the 13 applicants are currently holding 24 meetings with the SEC to discuss ETF details. Although the SEC has postponed the decision of the Bitcoin spot ETF on several occasions, and false information about the SEC’s approval of the iShalesco spot ETF under the Beled flag on 16 October, the market continues to believe that it is only a matter of time before Bitcot’s spot ETF approval.
2023年1月5日至10日是SEC做出批准与否的最后期限，华尔街人士预测，为了维护市场公平，很有可能同时批准多支ETF。行业研究人员预计，仅在批准后的第一年，就会有超过2400亿美元的资金流入BTC。
From 5 to 10 January 2023, the deadline for approval by the SEC, Wall Streeters predict that, in order to maintain market equity, it is likely that more ETFs will be approved at the same time. Industry researchers expect that more than $240 billion will go to BTC in the first year of approval alone.
“比特币现货ETF的通过，主要体现了监管机构对比特币的投资价值的认可，将扩大比特币投资者群体。”区块链与加密货币研究者杨俊向《华夏时报》记者表示，传统投资者可通过比特币现货ETF变相持有比特币，将会扩大比特币的需求、影响当前的供求比，参考黄金ETF的通过影响在大概率上将助推标的的价格与价值上涨。除此之外，还会改变大众对加密货币的认知与评价，降低投资比特币的门槛。
“The adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF largely reflects the regulatory authority’s recognition of the investment value of the Bitcoin, which will expand the group of Bitcoin investors.” Jang, a block chain and encrypt currency researcher, told the Washington Times that traditional investors could hold bitcoins in contrast to the Bitcoin spot ETF, which would expand Bitcoin’s demand, influence current supply and demand ratios, and that the impact of the gold pass would increase the price and value of the bid at approximate rates. In addition, it would change public perception and evaluation of the encrypt currency and lower the threshold for investment in bitcoins.
2023年11月，比特币链上交易数量环比增长62%，创下历史新高，铭文交易的意外崛起功不可没。
In November 2023, the number of trading rings in the Bitcoin chain grew by 62 per cent, reaching an all-time high, and the unexpected rise of handwriting transactions was not without credit.
作为一种将任意内容刻录到比特币上的技术，铭文（Inscriptions）最早出现在2023年3月，当时开发者在其基础上模仿ERC20创造了BRC20，为Ordinals协议赋予了发行同质化资产的能力。12月下旬，由于Ordinals交易量大幅度上涨，比特币网络单日交易费用甚至超过以太坊。随着比特币铭文的爆火，各个公链也都掀起了铭文浪潮，其中，SOL的价格突破了110美元，30天涨幅近100%。
As a technology to carve anything into bitcoin, Inscriptions first appeared in March 2023, when developers created BRC20 on the basis of which they mimicled ERC20, giving Ordinals the ability to issue homogenous assets. In late December, because of the dramatic increase in Ordinals’ transactions, Bitcoin’s single-day transaction costs even exceeded those of Etha.
“比特币市场不断整理过去，创造更令人信服的资产形式。”王娟表示，铭文是基于比特币的类似于“数字原生”的形式。相较于之前的大体量难流转，以太坊生态层出不穷，这个创新对比特币生态的丰富很有意义。铭文交易需求会倒逼技术生态，增加对比特币二层网络建设的需求，交易渠道工具和产品的安全、多样和稳定性，能促进比特币生态和铭文本身的发展，至于市场方面，炒作和投机依然一如既往是加密市场新赛道的主旋律。
“The Bitcoin market continues to organize the past, creating more convincing forms of assets.” Wang Jun states that the inscriptions are based on a “digital raw” form similar to the bitcoin. It is more difficult than before to flow, and the eco-ecology of this innovation, which makes sense.
然而，并非所有数据都是一片向好。根据The Block发布的最新数据，2023年截至目前，风投机构向加密货币和区块链初创公司注资107亿美元，相较于2022年的333亿美元减少了68%。其中，Pre-Seed轮、种子轮和A轮创业公司的交易比例在2023年有所增加，而中期和后期交易相比去年有所下降。
According to the latest data released by The Block, as of now, wind deposit agencies have invested $10.7 billion in crypto-currency and block chain start-ups in 2023, a 68% decrease from $33.3 billion in 2022. Of this, the share of Pre-Seed, Seed, and A-turn start-ups increased in 2023, compared to a decline in medium-term and late-stage transactions last year.
2024年，比特币能否走进“夏季”？
值得注意的是，在加密企业忙着与美国监管对峙之时，香港正在不断释放利好。
It is worth noting that Hong Kong is releasing profits at a time when encryption firms are busy with regulatory confrontations with the United States.
今年6月1日，香港正式将虚拟资产交易平台纳入监管范围，至今为止已有13个虚拟资产交易平台向香港证券及期货事务监察委员会提交了申请，2个交易平台获得牌照。此外，香港在今年还上线了首个亚洲虚拟货币期货ETF，并正在探索“数码港元”。
On 1 June of this year, Hong Kong officially brought the virtual asset trading platform under its supervision. To date, 13 virtual asset trading platforms have submitted applications to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Supervisory Board, and two trading platforms have been licensed.
对此，杨俊认为，加密货币在全球正在经历合规化的过程，香港体现了正向发展、引导行业在监管之下合规发展，美国则体现了以案件或风险治理之下的监管框架与手段。各个国家、地区的具体监控框架有所不同，但也不乏基于传统金融与区块链加密资产的共识。KYC、KYT、AML、Travel Rule等将会是全球各国对加密行业监管的开始与重点，这也将是从业企业的基本合规要求。
In response, Yeung Jun argues that encrypting money is going through a process of global compliance, Hong Kong is moving toward developing and guiding industry compliance under regulation, and the United States is demonstrating regulatory frameworks and instruments under case or risk management. Specific regulatory frameworks vary across countries and regions, but there is no lack of consensus based on traditional financial and block-chain encryption assets.
未来一年，加密资产将会走向何方？
In the coming year, where will the encrypted assets go?
2024年4月，比特币即将迎来第四次减半，减半后，每个区块只奖励3.125 BTC，而在2028年及以后，这个数字会再次减半。在比特币网络中，大约每四年便会发生一次减半，这意味着新铸造的BTC数量会减少，比特币变得更加稀缺，从而推升其价值升高。回看此前发生在2012年、2016年和2020年的每次减半，都深刻影响了比特币的价格。
In April 2024, Bitcoin was about to be halved for the fourth time, with each block being rewarded by only 3.25 BTC, which would be halved again in 2028 and beyond. In the Bitcoin network, about half every four years, that meant that the number of newly forged BTCs would be reduced, and Bitcoins would become scarcer, thus increasing their value.
在王娟看来，经历过减半的市场对再次减半的敏感度，不再纯粹是数量和技术依赖，主要取决于市场的活跃和热度。
According to Wang Jing, markets that have experienced halving are less sensitive to halving again than they are purely quantitative and technologically dependent, depending mainly on market activity and heat.
此外，宏观政策带来的影响也不容小觑。在12月13日举行的美联储新闻发布会上，利率仍维持在5.25%—5.50%区间，成为今年度第四次暂停加息的月份。其中，鲍威尔明确表示货币政策紧缩已经基本结束，利率可能会在长时间保持，但降息现在已经进入考虑范围。在新闻发布会后，比特币再度反弹至4.3万美元以上，24小时涨幅超过4%。
At the Fed’s press conference on December 13, interest rates remained at 5.25–5.50%, becoming the fourth suspended month this year. In it, Powell made it clear that monetary policy tightening was largely over, that interest rates might be sustained for a long time, but interest reductions are now under consideration.
对此，杨俊表示，基于减半、美联储降息、ETF等预期，大概率如过往一样会出现看涨行情。但全球宏观经济低迷，将是很大的不确定性因素之一。本次减半对通缩影响供求关系的作用将进一步减少，因为比特币流通量已足够大、未被挖出的部分很少。未来围绕比特币的应用或投资价值将会是比特币价格的关键，通过扩大需求来调节供求关系比、实现价格与价值的增长。
In response, Young-joon said that, based on expectations such as halving interest rates, the Fed, and the ETF, rates are likely to rise as in the past. But global macroeconomic downturns will be one of the major uncertainties.
与此同时，加密行业风险依旧不容小觑。独立国际策略研究员陈佳向《华夏时报》记者表示，时至今日，在依靠造富神话之外，币圈依旧拿不出实质性创新成果。作为加密资产交易法制基础、公平交易底层架构及顶层设计的加密交易所，深陷监管丑闻，无论是传统的去中心化交易所，还是中心化交易所，都没有摆脱内部交易、金融欺诈、非法套利的旧疾。加密资产交易依然是主权国家数据安全、信息安全和金融安全的风险之源。
Chen Jia, an independent international strategy researcher, has stated to the Washington Times that the currency circle still does not produce substantial innovations beyond the myth of wealth today. As a legal basis for encryption asset trading, the bottom structure of fair trade and top-of-the-art encryption exchanges, they are caught in a regulatory scandal, whether traditional decentralized exchanges or centralized ones, where internal transactions, financial fraud, and illicit arbitrage have not escaped.
近日，中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2023）》。其中，在持续清理整顿金融秩序方面提到，稳妥处置金交所、“伪金交所”风险，整治第三方财富管理公司乱象和跨境互联网券商、虚拟货币交易炒作等非法金融活动。
In recent days, the People's Bank of China has issued China's Financial Stability Report (2023). In the context of the ongoing clean-up and consolidation of the financial order, mention has been made of the safe disposal of the risks of gold dealers, pseudo-money brokers and the management of the financial activities of third-party wealth management companies, such as shaming and cross-border Internet voucher dealers, and the production of virtual currency transactions.
报告称，加密资产具有金融和数字技术双重风险。加密资产不由货币当局发行，不具有法偿性与强制性等货币属性，同时并未受到与其业务实质相适应的监管，因而表现出金融和数字技术双重风险。
The report states that encrypted assets pose a double risk of financial and digital technology. Encrypted assets are not issued by monetary authorities, have no monetary attributes, such as legal and mandatory, and are not subject to regulation appropriate to the substance of their business, thus demonstrating a double risk of financial and digital technology.
中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，加密货币投资具有很高的风险，投资者需要明确认识到这些风险和自身的风险承受能力，设定合理的投资目标，根据个人情况制定投资策略，保护好个人信息和资金安全，并充分做好调查和风险管理。
In an interview with a journalist from the Washington Times, China's financial think tank invited fellow Yu Fung Hui stated that there were high risks to investment in encrypted currency and that investors needed to be clearly aware of those risks and their own risk tolerance, set reasonable investment targets, develop investment strategies based on individual circumstances, protect personal information and financial security, and adequately conduct investigations and risk management.
责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳
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