暴跌70%，比特币会归零吗？
drops 70%, and bitcoin returns zero?
过去18个月里，虽然加密货币不断涌现，但其中逾千种已经“死亡”。
Over the past 18 months, more than a thousand of these have been “dead” despite the emergence of encrypted currencies.
美国科技类博客TechCrunch在最近的一份报告称，截至2018年6月30日，1000多个加密货币已经“死亡”，这一结论基于两大网站的数据：Coinopsy和DeadCoins。
According to a recent report by TechCrunch, an American technology blogger, more than 1,000 encrypted currencies were “dead” by 30 June 2018, a conclusion based on data from two major websites: Coinopsy and DeadCoins.
据悉，至少显示以下特点之一的加密货币被标记为“死亡”：被遗弃、具有欺骗性质、网站瘫痪、没有节点、钱包出现问题、没有社交更新、交易量低下或者开发人员已经退出项目。
According to the information received, encoded currency, which shows at least one of the following characteristics, is marked as “death”: abandoned, fraudulent, paralysed web site, no nodes, wallet problems, no social renewal, low transaction volumes, or developers have withdrawn from the project.
在加密货币血流成河时，比特币的日子也不好过。
Bitcoin's life is not easy when encrypted money bleeds.
去年比特币交易价格曾创纪录地达到近2万美元，但自那以来，比特币交易价格已经大跌了约70%。
Last year, the Bitcoin transaction price reached a record level of nearly $20,000, but since then the Bitcoin transaction price has fallen by about 70 per cent.
美国财经媒体CNBC指出，比特币价格的大幅下跌与2000年纳斯达克指数的大幅下跌几乎如出一辙，许多加密货币的失效被类比为互联网泡沫破灭时期破产的那些公司。
According to the U.S. financial media CNBC, the sharp fall in Bitcoin prices was almost the same as that of the NASDAQ Index in 2000, and the failure of many encrypted currencies was compared to those companies that were bankrupt during the collapse of the Internet bubble.
现状到底如何？
What's the status of 当前，世界各地的区块链科技创业企业通过将加密货币或代币直接出售给投资者的方式筹集资金，也就是首次代币发行(ICO)。 Currently, block-link technology start-ups around the world raise funds by selling encrypted currency or tokens directly to investors, i.e., issuing first-time tokens (ICOs). 路透社指出，这样的方式可以绕过银行或风险投资公司等中介机构而直接筹集到资金。 Reuters noted that such an approach could directly raise funds by bypassing intermediaries such as banks or venture capital companies. 而人们购买ICO是因为这些加密货币开始时很便宜，将来可能会带来很大的回报。 The reason why people buy ICOs is that these encrypted currencies are cheap at the beginning and are likely to yield significant returns in the future. 据普华永道咨询公司和瑞士加密谷协会的一份联合报告显示，在2018年1月到5月期间，共有537家公司注册发行了ICO项目，并筹集了137亿美元，规模几乎是整个2017年的两倍。在2017年，总共有552家发行ICO，筹集总额仅超过70亿美元。 According to a joint report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Swiss Society of Encrypted Valley, between January and May 2018, a total of 537 companies registered to issue ICO projects and raised $13.7 billion, almost twice as large as in 2017. In 2017, a total of 552 ICOs were issued, raising just over $7 billion. 不过，虽然从筹集的金额上看似乎比较乐观，但实际上却存在一些隐忧。 However, while there seems to be some optimism in terms of the amount raised, there are concerns in practice. 计有3470个公司宣布推出ICO，但其中只有30%的ICO最后圆满完成筹资，其他许多公司或是由于各种原因推迟产品推出，或是在ICO的过程中逐渐失去动力，消失不见。 A total of 34,470 companies announced the launch of the ICO, but only 30 per cent of the ICOs were finally successfully financed, while many others either delayed the roll-out for various reasons or lost momentum and disappeared during the ICO process. 此外，关于加密货币的骗局也层出不穷。 In addition, there are numerous frauds about encrypted currency. 2018年1月，Bitconnect作为一个长期以来被许多人怀疑是庞氏骗局的借贷和交易平台宣布关闭，它还被Coinopsy描述为“加密货币领域目前为止最成功的庞氏骗局”。 In January 2018, Bitcontract, a lending and trading platform long suspected by many as Ponzi fraud, was declared closed and described by Coinopsy as “the most successful ponzi scheme so far in the area of cryptography currency”. Titanium区块链基础设施服务ICO也被美国证券交易委员会(SEC)关闭。据悉，Titanium从美国和其他国家的投资者那里融资2100万美元。 Titanium Block Chain Infrastructure Services ICO has also been shut down by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Titanium is known to finance $21 million from investors in the United States and other countries. 在声明中，SEC警告投资者说ICO是一种炒作风险非常高的投资者类型。“在接到多起涉嫌欺诈的ICO案件后，我们再次希望投资者在考虑这些作为投资时格外谨慎。” In its statement, SEEC warned investors that ICO was a very risky type of investor. “We once again hope that investors will be more cautious when considering these investments after receiving multiple cases of fraudulent ICO.” 俄罗斯网络安全公司卡巴斯基称，2017到2018年，加密货币勒索案为75.1606万例，几乎只有2016到2017年数量115.2299万的一半。而加密货币劫持案的数量同期从190万增加到了270万。 According to the Russian cyber security company Kabaski, between 2017 and 2018, there were 751.06 million cases of encrypted currency extortion, almost half of the 115.2299 million between 2016 and 2017. The number of encrypted currency hijackings increased from 1.9 million to 2.7 million over the same period. 卡巴斯基的研究员称，加密货币劫持者隐蔽得越久，获利越多，因此受害者可能一段时间内没有注意到被劫持。 Researchers in Kabaski claim that the longer it has been hidden and the more profitable it has been, the victims may not have noticed the hijacking for some time. 此外，世界各地的监管机构都加强了对加密货币的审查，担心它们会成为洗钱、操纵市场和欺诈等非法活动的温床，这也影响着加密货币的发展。 In addition, regulators around the world have intensified their scrutiny of encrypted currencies, fearing that they could serve as a breeding ground for illicit activities such as money-laundering, market manipulation and fraud, which also affect the development of encrypted currencies. 最近，受日本金融厅处罚6家加密货币交易所影响，比特币持续下跌，一度失守5900美元关口，这是2月6日以来比特币首次跌破6000美元，这一价格同时也是2017年11月以来的最低价格。 Recently, six encrypted currency exchanges were penalized by the Japanese Financial Services Agency, and Bitcoin continued to fall and was once at the point of $5,900, the first time that Bitcoin had fallen by $6,000 since 6 February, while at the same time it was the lowest price since November 2017. 加密货币不行了？ 上周，比特币跌至去年11月以来的最低水平。CNBC指出，交易员们将其归因于即将到期的芝加哥商品交易所期货合约以及新买家整体兴趣低迷。 Last week, Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since November last year. According to CNBC, traders attribute it to the upcoming expiration of the Chicago Commodity Exchange futures contract and the overall low interest of new buyers. CoinDesk数据显示，作为世界上最大、也是第一种加密货币的比特币由于缺乏热情而步履维艰，自1月份以来，比特币的价格已经下跌了52%。 CoinDesk data show that Bitcoin, the world's largest and first encrypt currency, has struggled because of lack of enthusiasm and that the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 52 per cent since January. 曾经对互联网泡沫发出精准预警的诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒在接受媒体采访时指出，比特币可能不会归零，但它“基本上”就是一个泡沫。他说，去年的比特币飙升“不是理性的反应”。 In an interview with the media, Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, who used to give accurate warning of Internet bubbles, said that bitcoin might not be zero, but that it was “basically” a bubble. He said that last year’s surge in bitcoin was “not a rational response”. 此外，投资者对其他加密货币的狂热兴趣也有所减弱。 In addition, the interest of investors in other encrypted currencies has diminished. 2018年以来，由于全球范围内监管从严，加密货币交易所屡现被盗以及安全性存疑，加密货币市场出现了普遍大跌的行情。 Since 2018, there has been a general decline in the market for encrypted currencies as a result of tight global regulation, the theft of encrypted currency exchanges and security concerns. 据了解，Ethereum今年下跌了40%，XRP下跌了80%， Litecoin 下跌了64%。CoinMarketCap.com数据显示，自1月份以来，整个加密货币市场市值已缩水57%，达到6080亿美元。 It is known that Etherum has fallen by 40% this year, XRP by 80%, and Litecoin by 64%. CoinMarketCap.com data show that the market value of the entire crypto-currency market has shrunk by 57% since January, reaching $608 billion. 根据首次代币发行咨询公司Satis Group 3月份的分析，市值在5000万到1亿美元的加密货币中，只有不到4%获得成功或有良好前景。 According to the March analysis of Satis Group, the consulting firm for the first currency issuance, less than 4 per cent of the $50 million to $100 million in encrypted currency had been successful or had good prospects. 商业作家和投资者Aaron Brown在一封电子邮件中对美国彭博社表示：“显然，ICO市场存在很多欺诈和炒作。80%的ICOs是欺诈行为，10%的ICOs缺乏实质内容，在筹集资金后不久就失败了。剩下的10%中的大多数可能也会失败。” Commercial writer and investor Aaron Brown said in an e-mail to Bloomberg in the United States: “It is clear that there are a lot of frauds and pretenses in the ICO market. 80% of ICOs are frauds, 10% of ICOs lack substance and soon fail to raise funds. Most of the remaining 10% may fail.” 不过，有专家认为，监管更加透明可能为机构投资者打开大门。 However, it was suggested that greater transparency in regulation might open the door to institutional investors. BitBull Capital的首席执行官Joe DiPasquale表示：“我们也看到了同样的担忧，包括监管透明度仍不够，很多机构仍被挡在门外。” According to Joe DiPasquale, Chief Executive Officer of Bitbull Capital: “We have also seen the same concerns, including that regulatory transparency is still inadequate and that many institutions remain out of the way.” 报告显示，就目前而言，美国、新加坡和瑞士是全球三个最重要的ICO中心，这主要是源于他们监管的进步。 The report shows that, for the time being, the United States, Singapore and Switzerland are the three most important ICO centres around the globe, largely as a result of progress in their regulation. 普华永道战略(PwC Strategy)区块链EMEA负责人Diemers表示，在2017年区块链炒作之后，ICO行业已经发展成熟。 他强调，随着ICO的法律和投资者关系方面在未来几个月内有所改善，ICO的失败率将下降，更多项目将在合适的合作伙伴和投资者中取得成功。 The head of the EMEA chain of PwC Strateges said that the ICO industry had matured since the episode in 2017. He stressed that as the ICO’s legal and investor relations improved in the coming months, the ICO’s failure rate would decline, and more projects would succeed among the right partners and investors. 值得一提的是，加密货币交易所BitMEX首席执行官Arthur Hayes预测，比特币在年底前能升至5万美元。作为Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange的创始人，他指出比特币现在的修正是很正常的。 It is worth mentioning that Arthur Hayes, Chief Executive Officer of the encrypted currency exchange BitMEX, predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $50,000 by the end of the year. As founder of Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange, he noted that it was normal for Bitcoin now to amend it. Hayes揭示比特币的剧烈波动特性正是吸引投资人的地方。他补充道，现在比特币更透明，更有知名度，因此疯牛和疯熊间隔的时间会减少。(孙秋霞) Hayes reveals that bitcoin's highly volatile characteristics are exactly where investors are attracted. He adds that now bitcoin is more transparent and visible, so the time between mad cows and mad bears is reduced. (Sun Qiuxia)
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