一、算力规模的巨幅下降
i. Huge decline in the size of arithmetic
二、算力规模下降的原因
2.1 ETH 使用量减少导致的价格下跌
2.1 ETH Price decline as a result of reduced usage
2.1.1 行业泡沫挤出
2.1.1 Industry bubble crowding out
2.1.2 竞品蚕食占有率
2.1.2 Possession rate of competing predatory
2.2 POW 挖矿奖励份额减少导致的矿机获得 ETH 数量减少
2.2 Reduction in the number of miners receiving ETHs as a result of the reduction in the share of incentives for mining
2.2.1 EIP-1559 致矿工收入减少
2.2.1 EIP-1559 Reduced income from miners
2.2.2 信标链上线
2.2.2 The beacon chain is lined
2.2.3“合并”临近转 POS 挖矿
2.2.3 “Combining” approaches POS mining
2.3 总结
2.3 Summary
三、”合并”及其影响
III, “Combination” and its implications
3.1 矿业的硬件设备—显卡等硬件提供商收缩出货量
3.1 Hardware equipment in mining — hardware providers such as graphic cards contract out quantities
3.2 矿业的市场主体—POW 矿工转战别处
3.2 The market owner of the mining industry - the Pow Miners' turn to war elsewhere
3.2.1 原链分叉
3.2.1 Original chain splits
3.2.2 转向 ETC 挖矿
3.2.2 Shift to ETC mining
3.2.3 其它矿机兼容币
3.2.3 Other mine machine-compatible currency
3.3 矿业的整体产出—总算力暂时大跌
3.3 Total output of the mining industry — a temporary drop in total capacity
3.4 矿业的发展方向—staking 质押挖矿崛起
3.4 The direction in which the mining industry is developing—staking the rise of pledge mining
结语：以太坊合并是加密圈重要节点，对矿业产生根本性影响
concluding remarks: Ethernomy is an important node in the encryption circle and has a fundamental impact on mining
前言：V 神重提以太坊合并，引发外界对于矿业的猜想
Foreword to
香港时间 5 月 20 日，ETH 上海云峰会的当天，以太坊创始人“V 神”Vitalik Buterin 在个人推特声称自己已不再是“亿万富翁”。V 神当日在峰会上还称，“以太坊 2.0 正在进行最后的网络测试……合并最早可能在 8 月进行”，他在纠正自己过去“对世界贡献的负面价值”。
On the day of the ETH-Shanghai Cloud Summit, May 20, Hong Kong Time, Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Etheria, claimed on his own Twitter that he was no longer a billionaire. V On the same day, he also stated that “Etheria 2.0 is in the final cyber test...the merger could take place in August at the earliest”, and he was correcting his past “negative value of its contribution to the world”.
V 神的富翁地位是否不保，更多是普通用户投资操作之余的趣谈，真正能引起行业震荡的，是他同时提到的“以太坊 2.0”以及“合并测试”。最为关注这一动向的，可能是矿工群体，因为这与他们的切身利益高度关联。
V. Whether or not God’s status as a rich man is not safe, is much more anecdotal for ordinary users to invest in, and really shock the industry, by referring to both the “Etheria 2.0” and the “Combined Tests”. The most important concern is probably the miners’ community, because it is highly related to their vital interests.
核心技术和机制的颠覆性变动，必将传导至加密圈产业链的最上游，即矿工们所依附的挖矿行业。本报告旨在用长短适度的篇幅、大致全面的线索、清晰易懂的逻辑、环环紧扣的推导，为读者拆解以太坊矿业在合并的背景下，将要发生的变化。
Subversive changes in core technologies and mechanisms will inevitably lead to the upper edge of the cryptosphere chain, the mining industry that miners depend on. This report is intended to deconstruct the changes that will take place in the context of the merger of the Etherm mines, using a reasonable length, a broad and comprehensive thread, a clear and understandable logic, and a tight contortion.
在开头部分，本报告也将详细介绍近期算力规模巨幅下降的原因，和以太坊合并在以太坊 2.0 中扮演的角色，并探讨算力规模下降对以太坊合并意味着什么，帮助读者更好的理解以太坊生态。本报告仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。
At the beginning, the report will also provide details of the reasons for the recent dramatic decline in the size of the calculations, and the combination of the role played by the Etherms in Ether 2.0, and explore what this decline in the size of the calculations means for the Etherms to integrate and help the reader to better understand the Tails. The present report is for information purposes only and does not constitute any investment proposal.
一、算力规模的巨幅下降
i. Huge decline in the size of arithmetic
就在 V 神发表上述言论前后，以太坊价格一来一轮暴跌。5 月第三周，以太坊最低报价达到 1791.85 美元，距离历史最高价下跌超过 63.2%，同一时刻的比特币跌幅达 61%。大行情下以太坊币价不振似乎也在意料之中。除币价涨跌外，最能直接反映挖矿行业的荣枯趋势的数据，其实是以太坊的算力。
In the third week of May, the lowest price in the district was $179.85, a decline of more than 63.2% from the highest price in history, and a fall of 61% in bitcoin at the same time. The low price in the currency seems to be unexpected.
据 OKLink 数据显示，当前以太坊的算力规模约为 1 P，对比 2021 年末的 8 P 规模，其算力已经缩水近 8 倍，这可能让很多矿工深感凛冬已至。导致这一现象的原因是什么呢？
According to OKLink data, the current size of Ether is about 1 P, which is nearly eight times smaller than the size of 8 P at the end of 2021, which may have caused many miners to feel that winter is coming. What is the reason for this?
整体行情的走熊，是这一轮算力暴跌的重要推手，但也构成了本轮以太坊合并的大背景。值得注意的是，本轮算力暴跌和以太坊合并，这二者间有着千丝万缕的联系。在先后对这两大现象进行拆解后，我们将对二者间的关联进行解读。
An overall walk-through is an important pusher for this round, but it also forms the backdrop for this round’s merger. It is worth noting that there is a inextricable link between this round’s collapse and the combination of the two.
二、算力规模下降的原因
影响矿工挖矿行为的最直接因素是盈利，根据矿机盈利公式：
The most immediate factor affecting mining activity by miners is profitability, based on the machine profit formula:
盈利=矿机 ETH 收益—矿机运营成本
Profit = Miner ETH Proceeds - Miner Operating Costs
盈利=ETH 当前价格 * 矿机获得 ETH 数量—矿机运营成本
Profit = ETH Current Price * Miner Acquisition ETH Quantity - Mineral Machine Operating Costs
矿工盈利的影响因素主要有矿机获得 ETH 的数量、ETH 当前价格、矿机运营成本。由于单台矿机在一段时期内运营成本基本不会有大的变动，本文将从 ETH 当前价格和矿机获得 ETH 数量这两个角度去做进一步的拆解分析。
The main factors influencing the profits of miners are the number of ETHs acquired by the mine, the current prices of ETHs, and the cost of operating the miners. Since the operating costs of the single miner will hardly change significantly over a period of time, further disassembly analysis will be done in terms of the current prices of ETHs and the number of ETHs obtained by the miners.
2.1 ETH 使用量减少导致的价格下跌
供求关系是经济学最底层的规律，价格由供给和需求决定。如果需求减少，供给不变的话，价格会下跌。以太坊定位为世界计算机，当程序需要跑在以太坊网络上时，以太坊需要为其分配足够的网络资源（计算、存储、带宽等），ETH 便充当以太坊网络资源使用手续费的作用。从供需角度来看，以太坊网络生态的繁荣度决定了对 ETH 的需求量，而当前行业泡沫消退和竞品蚕食占有率共同导致了以太坊项目对 ETH 的使用需求正在减少。
The relationship between supply and demand is at the bottom of economics, with prices determined by supply and demand. Prices fall if demand is reduced and supply is constant. The positioning of Taipan as a computer in the world, and the allocation of sufficient network resources (calculation, storage, bandwidth, etc.) to Taiye needs to be applied when the program needs to run on the Taiyem network, ETH acts as a service charge for the use of the Taiyem web resources.
2.1.1 行业泡沫挤出
在经历了 2020 年 DeFi 热潮和 2021 年 NFT 之风后，行业泡沫逐渐消退，链上应用趋于萎缩，用户以 ETH 进行支付的频次大大降低。
After the 2020 deFi boom and the 2021 NFT wind, the industrial bubbles gradually faded, the chain applications contracted and the frequency of payments by users with ETH was significantly reduced.
换而言之，周期原因造成的行业收紧，压缩了 ETH 的流通和应用场景。据 OKLink 图表显示，自 3 月以来，ETH 单日销毁量持续走低，对比此前销毁量数据大有缩水，这间接反映了以太坊链上交易处理数量的减少。
In other words, the cycle-caused industry tightened, compressing the circulation and application of ETH. According to the OKLink chart, since March, ETH single-day destruction has continued to decline, with a significant contraction in comparison with previous destruction data, which indirectly reflects a reduction in the number of transactions processed in the Taiyo chain.
2.1.2 竞品蚕食占有率
许多公链致力于解决以太坊当前面临的扩展与性能问题，他们大都会在智能合约层兼容以太坊代码，以便最迅捷地承接以太坊的开发者，分流了大量 ETH 的使用需求。其中的典型代表有 Solana、Avalanche 和 Tron 等等。
Many public chains are committed to solving the expansion and performance problems currently faced by Ether, and most of them fit Ether code in the intelligent contract layer, so that they can most quickly take over Ether developers and divert a great deal of ETH demand. Typical among them are Solana, Avalanche and Tron, among others.
（公链TVL图，图片来源于defillama）
(public chain TVL graph, from defilama)
根据公链 TVL 对比数据，虽然左边饼图显示，以太坊公链依然是以 55.4% 占比位居第一位，但右图面积图却能清晰反映出，以太坊上的 TVL 比例，因其他竞品的蚕食而持续下降。
According to the public chain TVL comparison, while the left-hand pie map shows that the Ether Pistol chain is still the first in the 55.4 per cent ratio, the right-hand map of the area clearly reflects the continuous decline in the TVL ratio in the Tathlem as a result of other competitions.
2.2 POW 挖矿奖励份额减少导致的矿机获得 ETH 数量减少
根据机制设置，此前以太坊矿工收入来自区块奖励（固定为 2 枚 ETH）+ 手续费，而通常区块奖励所带来的收益是高于手续费的。从 2020 年 8 月开始，受 DeFi 以及 NFT 热潮影响，以太坊链上活动陡增，Gas 费大涨，手续费在矿工总收入中的占比也逐步增高。
According to the mechanism, the income of the miners in the area had previously been derived from block incentives (fixed to 2 ETHs) + fees, while the benefits of block incentives were usually higher than the fees. Starting in August 2020, they were affected by the deFi and NFT booms, with a sharp increase in activity in the chain, a sharp increase in Gas fees, and a gradual increase in the share of the fees in the total revenues of the miners.
由于以太坊频频发生的拥堵事件导致的高 gas 费和等待打包交易更是让用户的体验变得很差，这在很大程度上限制了以太坊的发展。EIP-1159 和以太坊 2.0 这类的既定改善规划，在致力于提升以太坊性能的同时，也改变了以太坊矿工的收入结构，从 EIP-1159 到“合并”POW 挖矿份额正逐步减少，直至为 0.
These planned improvements, such as the EIP-1159 and Etheria 2.0, have changed the income structure of the Ether miners from EIP-1159 to the “combined” Pow mining share, which is gradually decreasing until it is 0.0.
2.2.1 EIP-1559 致矿工收入减少
EIP-1559 是以太坊社区为解决以太坊拥堵问题提出的改进提案。此前，矿工收入来自区块奖励和手续费。其中，区块奖励固定为 2 枚 ETH，手续费则是动态动态变化的，且全部归矿工所有。实施 EIP-1559 之后，手续费将被销毁，矿工收入仅来自固定区块奖励和小费（Tip），而小费完全由用户自定义支付。因此在 EIP-1559 设定下，矿工收入来源中的一部分将会被销毁，获利减少。
EIP-1559 is a proposal for improvements to address the problem of crowding in the Etheria community. Previously, miners received their revenues from block incentives and fees. Of these, block incentives were fixed at 2 ETHs, which were dynamic and were all owned by miners. After EIP-1559 was implemented, fees were destroyed, miners received their revenues from fixed block incentives and tipes (Tip), which were entirely self-defined by users. As a result, a portion of the miners'income sources was destroyed and their profits reduced under the EIP-1559 scheme.
（EIP-1559前后矿工收益变化，图片来源于网络）
(changes in miner earnings before and after EIP-1559, pictures from the web)
根据此前 Coindesk 相关研究报告，实施 EIP-1559 后，在小费收入为零的情况下粗略估计矿工收入将下降 20%～35%。
According to previous Coindesk-related studies, following the implementation of EIP-1559, a rough estimate of a 20-35 per cent decrease in miner's income was made when the tip income was zero.
（ETH供应量，图片来源于OKLink）
(ETH supply from OKLink)
另据 OKLink 数据显示，自 EIP-1559 实施以来，以太坊预计供应量为 120,919,588，实际供应量为 118,558,187，目前以太坊区块链已经销毁了 2,361,400 枚 ETH，这些都是原矿工收入减少的部分。
Also according to OKLink data, since the implementation of EIP-1559, the actual supply of 120,919,588 was 118,558,187 and 2,361,400 ETHs have been destroyed as part of the reduced revenues of the original miners.
2.2.2 信标链上线
以太坊 2.0 是解决当前以太坊的网络性能瓶颈的既定规划，致力于在不降低去中心化的前提下大幅提升以太坊网络上的扩展性与性能。为实现这一目标，其设定了 4 个发展阶段，前三个阶段都是采用 PoW 模式，第四个阶段将完成从 PoW 到 PoS 的转化，以及分片、由 eWASM 代替 EVM 等重要升级，是以太坊的最终形态。以太坊 2.0 网络通过引入分片的方式，来提升网络的扩展性和处理能力，而信标链是整个以太坊 2.0 网络的“指挥和控制中心”。
In order to achieve this goal, four phases have been set, the first three of which are the Pow model, and the fourth phase will complete the transformation from Pow to PS, as well as major upgrades such as sub-lines and the replacement of EVM by eWSM, which is the final shape of the Taipan 2.0 network, which will enhance network expansion and processing capabilities by introducing sub-sections, while the beacon chain is the “command and control centre” of the entire Taipan 2.0 network.
其最新路线图显示，以太坊第四阶段升级的主要节点信标链上线、“合并”，以及分片。目前信标链已于 2020 年 12 月上线，此后信标链以 PoS 的形式运行，执行层产生区块的过程仍然由原链以 PoW 形式进行，以太坊进入一个 PoW+PoS 混合挖矿的阶段，为整个网络向 PoS 过渡做铺垫。
Its latest road map shows that the main node beacon chain, “combined” and sub-films are being upgraded in the fourth stage of Taicheng. The beacon chain is now on line in December 2020, after which the beacon chain is running in the form of Pos, the process of producing blocks from the enforcement layer is still being carried out in the form of PoW, and the Taihu is entering the stage of a PoW+PoS hybrid mining, paving the way for the transition of the entire network to Pos.
信标链上线，Staking功能开启，用户可以将自己的以太坊存入到以太坊 2.0 网络上。人们能够通过在软件中锁定 (质押)32个 ETH 成为验证人，参与验证交易，以此来确保网络的去中心化和安全性。作为回报，质押者们将能有资格获得 ETH 奖励。这一部分也导致了POW挖矿奖励变少。
By locking in the software (, 32 ETHs become certifiers and participate in the certification of ) to ensure centralization and safety of the network.
（信标链区块数据，图片来源于https://beaconscan.com/）
(Mobile chain block data from https://beaconscan.com/)
截至 5 月 27 日，信标链运行平稳。链上数据显示，信标链已拥有 39.15 万个节点，累计质押总额约 1252.77 万 Eth，其中有效投票参与率达 99.77%。自 2021 年 10 月 15 日至今，节点数量和质押总额稳步增长，每日验证者收入也在缓慢增长中。目前，信标链每日奖励量超 1500 枚 ETH。
As of May 27, the beacon chain was running smoothly. Data on the chain show that the beacon chain already has 39.15 million nodes, with cumulative pledges totalling approximately 12,527,000 Eth, out of which 99.77% effective voter participation has been recorded. Since October 15, 2021, the number of nodes and total pledges have increased steadily, and daily certified income is increasing slowly.
2.2.3“合并”临近转 POS 挖矿
按 V 神所言，以太坊计划于 2022 年第三季度进行的“合并”，将会把共识层（PoS 信标链）与执行层（PoW 原链）合并，并停止原链的 PoW 部分，这次升级代表着以太坊正式切换到 PoS 共识。PoS 机制下，矿工能获取的以太坊收益将与其质押的 ETH 占全网 ETH 质押的比例相关，而不再需要购入矿机等硬件。这意味着以太坊 PoW 挖矿将在不久后退出历史舞台，也给正进行 PoW 挖矿的矿工们带来了一定的压力。
According to the V God, the Etherm plan “combined” in the third quarter of 2022 will merge the Consensus layer (PoS beacon chain) with the Implementation layer (PoW original chain) and stop the Pow part of the original chain, which represents a formal switch to the Pos consensus. Under the PoS mechanism, the proceeds of the miner from the Ether will be associated with their pledge of ETH to the entire network and will no longer be needed to buy hardware such as mine machines. This means that the PoW mine will soon be withdrawn from the historical stage and will put some pressure on the miners who are engaged in the Pow mine.
2.3 总结
2.3 Summary
综上所述，一方面，行业泡沫的消退和竞品蚕食占有率共同导致了项目对 ETH 的使用需求正在减少，这也导致了 ETH 价格的下跌。另一方面，EIP-1159 和以太坊 2.0 这类的既定改善规划，改变了以太坊矿工的收入结构，从 EIP-1159 到信标链上线再到“合并”，POW 挖矿份额逐步减少。它们都会导致当前以太坊矿机盈利变少，进而共同促成了以太坊算力规模的缩水。
In summary, on the one hand, the erosion of industrial bubbles and the share of competing predatory consumption have together led to a decline in the project’s demand for ETH, which has also led to a fall in the prices of ETH. On the other hand, the planned improvements in EIP-1159 and Etheria 2.0 have changed the income structure of the Ether miners, from EIP-1159 to the “combined” beacon chain, and the Pow share of mining has gradually decreased. They have all led to a reduction in the current profits of the Ethermite machines, which together has contributed to a contraction in the size of the Etherms.
三、”合并”及其影响
III, “Combination” and its implications
按照前文的分析，此次以太坊完成合并，对以太坊矿业的影响巨大。主要表现在如下 4 个方面：硬件设备、算力总量、利益格局、发展方向。下面逐一来谈：
According to the preceding analysis, the merger was completed in Etheria, which has had a significant impact on Etheria mining. This is reflected in four areas: hardware equipment, total numeracy, pattern of benefits, and direction of development.
3.1 矿业的硬件设备—显卡等硬件提供商收缩出货量
3.1 Hardware equipment for mining - hardware providers such as graphic cards shrink cargo
行业最上游的硬件提供商曾在以太坊的 POW 挖矿中得益匪浅。去年英伟达 CEO Jensen Huang 透露，英伟达在推出以太坊挖矿处理器后三个月内，实现了 1.55 亿美元的盈利；去年 Q2 英伟达显卡挖矿收入达到 2.66 亿美元，创历史之最。此前英伟达方曾公开承认，以太坊从 POW 向 POS 的转变，是对显卡（GPU）产品需求的潜在威胁。5 月 20 日，也就是 Q1 财报发布之前一周，芯片巨头英伟达宣布放缓招聘，引起了加密圈从业者的格外关注和重点解读，此次主动收缩人员规模，可能离不开行情不振导致的矿机需求锐减。
The most advanced hardware provider in the industry was the most successful in Pow mining in Ether. Last year, CEO Jensen Huang revealed that BWD had made $155 million in profits within three months of the launch of the Ether Digging Processor; last year, Q2 HVD recovered $266 million, the largest in history. The formerly well-advanced party publicly acknowledged that the shift from Pow to POS in Ether was a potential threat to the demand for GPU products.
作为全球高端电子硬件设备供应商中的龙头玩家，以及加密圈挖矿设备最上游零部件生产商，英伟达尚且会因受到行情下跌和以太坊转 POS 影响，而下调出货量预期，更休论其他产业链上中下游其他大大小小的玩家了。当然，以太坊转 POS 对他们的影响会更大，因为毕竟和英伟达相比，算力挖矿是他们的“支柱性产业”，甚至是釜底抽薪。所以，可以遇见的是，随着行情下行的加剧，以及 POS 挖矿的落地，后期全球实体矿机设备及其零部件的出货量，将在短期内走低。
As a leading player in a global supplier of high-end electronic hardware equipment, and as a producer of the most upstream parts of crypto-digging equipment, British Vidashan is also expected to move out of stock as a result of a decline in mobility and a shift in POS from Ether to Ether. Of course, a shift from Ether to Pos would have a greater impact on them, because arithmetic mining is, after all, their “pillar industry” or even their base payroll. So, what can be seen is that, with the decline in mobility and the drop in POS mining, the volume of equipment and its parts from later stages of the world’s real-estate machines will be low in the short term.
3.2 矿业的市场主体—POW 矿工转战别处
3.2 Market owner of mining - Pow Miner Switching
一切市场主体，均为逐利而生，这在加密圈，尤其是矿圈体现地尤为明显。在以太坊由 P0 W 转 POS 挖矿后，原有 POW 矿工将不能继续参与以太坊挖矿，其已有 ETH 矿机的使用流向值得关注。以太坊 POW 算力在整个加密挖矿赛道，举足轻重，占比较大。一旦转 POS 之后，原有的 POW 算力可能会像砸盘一样涌入其他挖矿市场，届时或将给现有的挖矿赛道造成巨大影响，并一定程度上重构整个加密圈硬件挖矿赛道的利益格局。
After Ether's transfer from P0 W to POS mining, the former Pow miners will not be able to continue to participate in Ether mining, and the use of its already existing ETH machines will be of interest. The Ether Pow calculates the importance and importance of the entire encrypted mining track. Once it is transferred to POS, the pre-existing Pow calculations may flood into other mining markets like a smashboard, which may have a significant impact on the existing mining track and, to some extent, re-assemble the interests of the entire cryptic hardware mining track.
3.2.1 原链分叉
面对挖矿利益的再分配，矿工们有可能从利益角度出发，在以太坊 2.0 合并升级时不跟随以太坊社区完成 PoS 共识机制转换。如此一来以太坊有可能在合并节点分叉为 POW 和 POS 机制的两条链。
Faced with the redistribution of the benefits of mining, miners are likely, from the point of view of their interests, not to follow the Ether community to the PS consensus conversion at the time of the merger 2.0. Thus, the Ether is likely to divide between Pow and POS mechanisms at the point of the merger.
3.2.2 转向 ETC 挖矿
DAO 事件的硬分叉就导致了以太坊社区分裂成了以太坊和以太坊经典，代币也分成了两个——ETH 和 ETC。目前两者算法已经并不相同，ETH ASIC 矿机可能需要固件更新才能与 ETC 挖矿算法 ETCHash 兼容。但两者之间并无技术障碍，现有 ETH ASIC 矿工只升级矿机固件就可开采 ETC，显卡无需升级，可直接开采 ETC，切换成本很低，这很可能吸引很大一部分 ETH ASIC 矿工转向 ETC 挖矿。
The DAO incident caused the Ether community to split into Ether and Etheran classics, and the tokens into two - ETH and ETC. The calculations are now different, and the ETH ASIC miner may need to be updated with hardware to be compatible with the ETC mining algorithm ETCHash. But there are no technical barriers between the two, and the existing ETH ASIC miners can exploit ETC simply by upgrading it, the visible cards can be upgraded without directly mining ETC, and the switching costs are very low, which is likely to attract a large proportion of ETH ASC miners to turn to ETC mining.
3.2.3 其它矿机兼容币
理论上，显卡可以直接挖 Grin、BEAM、RVN、XMR、BTG、AION 等其他币种。
Theoretically, a card can directly dig out other currencies such as Grin, BEAM, RVN, XMR, BTG, AION.
3.3 矿业的整体产出—总算力暂时大跌
3.3 Overall output of the mining industry >
毋庸置疑的是，根据前文，以太坊转 POS 后，主要采用质押代币的方式，而非矿机算力进行挖矿，这也是应“碳中和”的号召。所以，相当一部分矿机会暂时关机，被迫停摆，等待找到新的使用场景再行重启。因此，可以预见的是，短期内，矿业的整体产出—以太坊总算力会大跌，全网总算力也会暂时出现一定的跌幅。
There is no doubt that, according to the previous version, after the Taiwan turn POS, mining is carried out mainly in the form of a pledge of money, not in the form of a miner's arithmetic, which is also called for by the call for “carbon neutralization.” So, a significant part of the mine opportunities are temporarily shut down and forced to wait for a new use scene to be rebooted.
前文提到，转 POS 机制后，这些以太坊原有矿工和算力，会涌入其他采用 POW 共识机制的公链和币种当中，使其算力更为充裕。那么，这部分算力会对币种价格走势，或将施加更多不确定性的影响。因为，二者的供需关系，发生了一定的变化。此前是市场对其币种的需求量增加，导致价格上涨，进而造成算力大量供给。如今，这些公链和代币在未预期的情况下，承接了一定规模的算力，催生出更多的代币，再叠加美联储加息下市场流动性减弱的大行情，后期币价将更趋动荡。
As mentioned earlier, these former POS miners and their arithmetic capacity would be absorbed into other public chains and currencies that use the Pow consensus mechanism, making them more productive. So, this part of the arithmetic would have an impact on currency price movements or would have greater uncertainty. Because of the supply-demand relationship, there has been a certain change in the supply-demand relationship. Prior to the increase in market demand for their currencies, which led to higher prices, leading to a substantial supply of arithmetic power.
3.4 矿业的发展方向—staking 质押挖矿崛起
3.4 Mining development direction—staking pledge mining rises
“合并”后以太坊由 P0 W 转 POS 挖矿，用户们参与挖矿的门槛将会降低，只需要质押 32 枚以太坊就可以申请成为验证节点参与挖矿。因此，以太坊矿业的形态将发生根本性的改变，即从线下的设备挖矿，转变为线上的质押挖矿。随着“碳中和”对加密圈的压力越来越大，后期不排除一部分公链师从龙头以太坊，同样选择 POS，那么这将进一步压缩实体设备矿业的生存空间，但这更多的只是一种趋势。
The “combining” of the pits from P0W to POS will reduce the threshold for users to participate in mining, and only 32 will be pledged to become identification nodes for mining. Thus, a fundamental change in the shape of the pits will occur, i.e., from sub-line equipment to pledge mining on the line. With the increasing pressure on the circulators, later on, it will not be possible to exclude some of the public chainrs from the poles and the same choice of POSs, which will further reduce the survival space of the real equipment mines, but this is all the more a trend.
回归到眼前的现实，转 POS 后，基于以太坊质押服务的项目将成为主流，合并前后以太坊质押比例将会大增。而 Staking 服务也存在规模效应，在蛋糕有限的情况下，市场占有率更高的项目更容易通过规模优势提高 Staking 分成比例，从而进一步提升其市场占有率，这一赛道的头部项目值得关注。
Returning to the present reality, after turning to POS, projects based on Ether’s pledge service will be mainstreamed, with a significant increase in the pre- and post-combination rate. The larger effect of Staking’s service is that, in the case of limited cakes, projects with a higher market share are more likely to increase their market share by increasing their share of scale, and the top line of the track is worth noting.
结语：以太坊合并是加密圈重要节点，对矿业产生根本性影响
concluding remarks: Ethernomy is an important node in the encryption circle and has a fundamental impact on mining
综合前述分析，可以得出如下总结：
A synthesis of the foregoing analysis can be summarized as follows:
行业泡沫挤出和竞品蚕食占有率共同导致了以太坊项目对 ETH 的使用需求正在减少，EIP-1159 和以太坊 2.0 这类的既定改善规划，在致力于提升以太坊性能的同也改变了以太坊矿工的收入结构导致矿工挖矿份额减少，这些因素综合导致了矿工收益减少进而导致以太坊算力规模的缩减。但这也与本轮以太坊合并有着隐形而又重要的关联。
The combination of industry bubble crowding and competition for ETH use has led to a decline in demand for Ether projects, as well as planned improvements such as EIP-1159 and Ether 2.0, and changes in the income structure of the Ether miners, which have led to a reduction in the share of miners in mining mining, leading to a reduction in miners’ returns and, consequently, in the size of the Etherm. This is also an implicit and important link with the current round of Ether merger.
以太坊从 POW 转 POS，一方面是技术升级，另一方面是利益的再分配。POW 时代，矿工为维系系统高质量运行做出了贡献，也获得了巨额生态奖励。转为 POS 之后，原有 POW 矿工将不能继续参与挖矿，存在分叉新链、“采掘”ETC 或其他矿机兼容币分流可能。生态内基于以太坊 Staking 的节点与质押服务将会成为主流。
As a result, former Pow miners will not be able to continue to participate in mining, and there is a possibility that new chains, “exploration” ETCs or other mineral machines will be compatible with currency transfers. The eco-based nodes and pledge services based in the Tails Staking will be mainstreamed.
以太坊自诞生以来已经历过两轮行业周期的检验，仍是公链生态的标杆、区块链创新的源泉，目前在各类底层技术突破，包括 Layer2、以太坊 2.0 等方面都做了诸多尝试。此前的 POW 挖矿为系统的安全、稳定做出了贡献，”合并“转 POS 之后，公链生态的竞争将进入 2.0 阶段，公链在底层、应用、资本等方面的全方位竞争值得期待。
Since its inception, Ether has been tested by two rounds of industrial cycles, which remain the benchmark of the public-chain ecology, the source of innovation in the block chain, and many attempts have been made to break through various bottom-level technological breakthroughs, including Layer2 and Etheria 2.0. Previous Pow mining contributed to the security and stability of the system. After the merger, the competition for the public-chain ecology will enter the 2.0 phase, and the full-scale competition of the public-chain at the bottom, application, capital, etc. is to be expected.
立足当下，对于 ETH 这类总量不限的资产，其没有 BTC 总量恒定的“故事”，价格主要依靠“供需关系”维系：即新增量与燃烧量之间的动态平衡。燃烧量与生态应用息息相关，它代表了去中心化的数字世界维系“信任”需求，只有当生态越来越丰富，“信任”需求越来越多的前提下，ETH 生态的繁荣才能持续。因此，决定区块链发展前景的是其上开发者生态的繁荣程度，“出圈”应用才是引领区块链未来的存在。
On a current basis, for assets such as ETH, there is no consistent “situation” of the BTC total, and prices depend mainly on the “supply-demand” nexus: the dynamic balance between the added and the burning volume. The burning volume is closely related to ecological applications, which represent a decentralized digital world that sustains the “trust” demand that sustains the ETH’s ecological prosperity only if the ecology is becoming richer and the “trust” demands are increasing.
可见，合并对以太坊矿业的影响，是尤为深远、全面，甚至是根本性的。另外，合并本身，包括未来的以太坊 2.0，对于以太坊生态乃至整个加密圈的影响，我们还将会跟踪研究、实时关注。包括针对后续质押赛道的发展走向、对于会否反向虹吸其他公链的生态，以及 Layer2 赛道的项目何去何从等等一系列潜在的影响，欧易研究院后期都将择机出专门的研究报告，为读者进行深度解读
So, the impact of the merger on the Etherm mines is particularly far-reaching, comprehensive, and even fundamental. Moreover, the merger itself, including the future Etherm 2.0, will follow up on research and real-time attention on the impact of the Etherm ecology and even on the cryptosphere as a whole.
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