请注意：本文仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。
Note: This document is for information purposes only and does not represent any investment proposal.
近期，USDT对美元汇率罕见跌破1:0.89，引发了对其稳定性根基的深刻质疑，可能预示着USDT帝国的裂变。
In the recent past, a rare decline of 1:0.89 in the exchange rate of the USDT against the US dollar has raised deep questions about the very foundations of its stability, which may portend the fission of the USDT Empire.
被誉为史上最成功的美元挂钩稳定币以及加密货币交易核心的Tether，近日遭遇前所未有的连续下跌，价格一度跌至1:0.89美元，远低于以往常见的不低于0.98美元的价格水平。即使在过去，该汇率短暂跌破后也会因套利活动迅速回调至1:1附近。
Tether, known as the most successful dollar pegged and stable currency in history, and the core of encrypted currency transactions, has experienced an unprecedented consecutive decline in recent days, with prices falling to $1.89, far below the usual level of $0.98 in the past. Even in the past, the exchange rate has been quickly reversed to close to 1:1 as a result of arbitrage.
然而，自10月初以来，USDT在各大交易平台上的美元兑换价持续下滑，截至10月15日，在四大平台的折算价区间为0.89至0.94美元，意味着持有100万USDT的投资者最高损失可达11%。此价格已是去年底以来最低，彼时连跌最长不过四天，而当前USDT已创下八连跌的历史纪录，同时其价格已连续六周未能恢复到1美元以上的"溢价"状态。
However, USDT's dollar exchange prices on major trading platforms have continued to decline since the beginning of October, ranging from 0.89 to 0.94 dollars between the four platforms as at 15 October, meaning that investors holding $1 million USDT have lost up to 11% of their losses. This price is the lowest since the end of last year, with one falling at least four days, while the current USDT has made an eight-coloured historical record, while its price has failed to recover to a price of more than a dollar for six consecutive weeks.
Tether的总市值也遭受冲击，上周市值尚有28亿美元，周一已降至24亿美元，市值在USDT未销毁的情况下瞬间蒸发了14%。与此同时，USDT的日成交量和七日滚动成交量双双走低，后者更是触及近四个月的新低，仅为23亿美元。
The overall market value of Tether was also hit, with $2.8 billion remaining last week, down to $2.4 billion on Monday, and 14% evaporated immediately in the absence of USDT destruction. At the same time, the daily and seven-day rolling volume of USDT were both low, reaching a new low of only $2.3 billion for almost four months.
近期一系列涉及Tether公司的负面事件加剧了市场的不信任感：
A series of recent negative events involving Tether have exacerbated the sense of mistrust in the market:
Noble Bank，这家曾托管USDT的银行，于10月初传出已流失包括Tether和Bitfinex在内的多家重要客户，并正寻求出售。
Noble Bank, a bank that had hosted the USDT, announced in early October that it had lost a number of important clients, including Tether and Bitfinex, and was seeking to sell them.
一篇名为《警告：Bitfinex丧失偿还能力 取回你的资产》的文章在10月7日公开质疑Bitfinex已丧失偿债能力，引起了全球投资者对USDT新一轮的担忧。文章列出了多项证据，直指Bitfinex存在的问题，并质疑Tether是否能提供充足的美元储备支持其代币USDT。
An article entitled Warning: Bitfinex became insolvent to take back your assets publicly questioned Bitfinex's insolvency on October 7, raising concerns among global investors about a new round of USDT. The article listed a number of pieces of evidence, referring directly to Bitfinex's problems, and questioned whether Tether could provide sufficient US dollar reserves to support its token USDT.
Bitfinex随后于上周四宣布暂停美元存提业务，进一步引发外界猜测。
Bitfinex's subsequent suspension of the United States dollar deposit last Thursday gave rise to further speculation.
尽管有传言称Bitfinex正将其部分银行业务转向汇丰银行，但双方至今并未确认此事。
Despite rumours that Bitfinex was transferring some of its banking operations to HSBC, the parties have so far failed to confirm this.
在这背景下，有人推测简单认定USDT必然崩盘并不明智。尽管由于2016年CFTC罚款事件后，主流交易所难以获得大型银行的正规账户，迫使交易所通过第三方财务处理者进行资金清算，这也正是Bitfinex无法提供详尽审计报告的原因之一。Bitfinex近期展示了其持有的约14万个BTC冷钱包（价值10亿美元）、4亿美元的ETH和2亿美元的EOS以证实其偿付能力，但这些资产的具体对应负债数额仍是未知数。
In this context, it is assumed that it would be unwise to simply assume that the USDT will collapse. While the mainstream exchange has difficulty obtaining formal accounts from large banks after the 2016 CFTC fine, forcing the exchange to clear funds through third-party financial processors is one of the reasons why Bitfinex was unable to provide a detailed audit report.
分析人士指出，USDT的本质实为一种私人的债权工具，用户买入USDT实际上承担了公司的信用风险，降低了原有资产的安全等级。对于可能出现的极端状况，如USDT崩盘，业界看法不一。一方面，有人担忧由此可能导致基于USDT报价的交易币种重挫，甚至引发币圈“核爆”级别的系统性风险。另一方面，有人认为市场上已有多种稳定币替代方案，USDT的退出并不会影响市场运行，其他稳定币将会填补空缺。
Analysts have pointed out that the very nature of the USDT is a private creditor tool, and that the user's purchase of the USDT actually assumes the company's credit risk and reduces the security level of the original asset. There is a divergence of views on the extremes that may arise, such as the USDT crash. On the one hand, there are concerns that this could lead to a serious setback in the currency exchange based on the USDT offer, and even to a systemic risk of a “nuclear explosion” level in the currency ring. On the other hand, there are many options available in the market, and it is argued that the withdrawal of the USDT will not affect the functioning of the market, and that other stable currencies will fill the gap.
总之，USDT作为目前市值最大的稳定币，牵动着庞大的用户群体和市场利益，其面临的危机局势及其后续发展无疑充满了复杂性和不确定性。
In short, as the most stable currency in the current market, the USDT is a source of great user groups and market interests, and its crisis situation and its follow-up are undoubtedly fraught with complexity and uncertainty.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论