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The aim of this paper is to provide market information rather than investment advice, which represents the author’s view and is not the official position on Mars Finance.
一、以太坊的独特价值与早期发展历程以太坊(Ethereum)作为一款与比特币、莱特币等不同的加密货币协议,展现出独特的价值和潜力。本文回顾了以太坊价格变动的历史脉络,涵盖了其价格走势、硬分叉历程及其未来展望。自2015年7月30日首个版本“Frontier”发布以来,以太坊代币虽于同年7月至9月的预售期定价约0.3-0.45美元,但当时市场价格并非关键看点。直至同年8月登陆加密货币交易所,才开启其成为第二大市值加密货币的旅程。
This paper reviews the historical context of price movements in the Taiwan, covering its price trends, hard splits, and its outlook for the future. Since the release of the first version of the “Frontier” on 30 July 2015, Taimin’s currency has been set at a price of about US$ 0.3-0.45 for the pre-sale period from July to September of the same year, but market prices were not a key consideration at that time. It was only in August 2015 that its journey to become the second-largest market-market encrypted currency was opened.
二、2015年:以太坊踏上征程2015年8月7日,Etherscan.io数据显示,以太坊在Kraken交易所首次交易,价格定为2.77美元。然而仅三天后,价格骤降至0.68美元,或因早期投资者急于套现所致。随着市场认识到以太坊的潜力,价格于8月13日回升至1.8美元,但在18日迎来首个重要里程碑——挖出第10万个区块的同时,价格却跌至1美元,并在接下来的两个月内持续下滑。这一时期,以太坊价格的表现基本反映了整个加密货币市场的态势,早期投资者开始陆续抛售预售阶段所购得的代币。
On August 7, 2015, the Ethercan.io data show that the price was set at US$ 2.77 for the first time at the Kraken Exchange. However, only three days later, prices fell sharply to US$ 0.68, or were caused by early investors’ rush to hedge. As the market recognized the potential of Ether, prices recovered to US$ 1.8 on August 13, but the first major milestone — digging up 100,000 blocks — fell to US$ 1 and continued to decline over the next two months.
三、2016年:DAO事件、黑客攻击与以太坊经典版(Ethereum Classic)的诞生至2016年1月11日,以太坊价格重返1美元上方,并自此未曾跌破。随后的两个月间,以太坊因预期升级至更为稳定的Homestead网络版本而持续升值,至3月13日突破15美元,市值首度超过10亿美元。3月14日执行Homestead硬分叉后,价格出现剧烈波动,至当年4月底跌至7.3美元。
As of January 11, 2016, it returned above US$ 1 and has not fallen since. In the following two months, it continued to appreciate as a result of the expected upgrade to a more stable version of Homestead, reaching US$ 15 on March 13, with a market value of more than US$ 1 billion for the first time. Following the implementation of Homestead hard splits on March 14, prices fluctuated sharply, falling to US$ 7.3 at the end of April of the year.
随着DAO项目的成功宣传,以太坊价格攀升至年度峰值,高达20.6美元。DAO项目通过代币销售筹集逾1200万ETH(约1.5亿美元),开创了初始代币发行(ICO)的时代。不幸的是,黑客于2016年6月16日利用DAO代码漏洞盗走了约5000万美元的ETH,引发市场恐慌,价格在两天内急挫至11美元,近乎腰斩。
With the success of the DAO project, it rose to an annual peak of $20.6 per cent, raising more than 12 million ETHs (about $150 million) through a token sale. Unfortunately, hackers stole about $50 million of ETH on June 16, 2016, using the DAO code gap, causing market panic, with prices falling sharply to $11 in two days.
经过一个月的激烈争论,社区最终决定实施硬分叉恢复以太坊网络并找回被盗资金,从而产生了以太坊经典(Ethereum Classic,ETC)。起初ETC价格短暂回升,但随后一路下滑至8美元附近。
After a month of intense debate, the community finally decided to restore the Etherm network with hard fork and to recover the stolen funds, resulting in the Etherium Classic (Etherium Classic, EtC). The EtC prices initially recovered briefly, but then fell down to around $8.
四、2017年:以太坊牛气冲天2017年初,以太坊的起步价仅为8美元,整个1月和2月间,价格稳步上涨至13美元。2月23日,以太坊加入社交交易平台eToro,推动其更快成长。同一天,比特币网络中未确认交易数量达10万笔,加密货币投资者开始转投被认为较慢且过时的比特币的替代品——以太坊。
At the beginning of 2017, the start-up price was only $8, and prices rose steadily to $13 throughout January and February. On February 23, Taipan joined the social trading platform eToro, driving it to grow faster. On the same day, the number of unconfirmed transactions in the Bitcoin network reached 100,000, and crypto-currency investors began to transfer alternatives to the bitcoin, which was considered slow and outdated.
2017年3月,尽管多次尝试突破20美元阻力位,以太坊未能取得实质性突破,直到当月底,价格突然飙升至45美元,日交易额飙升至4.5亿美元。当年4月26日至5月5日期间,以太坊价格飙升至95美元,比特币网络中未确认交易量在同一天逼近50万枚,促使矿工纷纷转向以太坊区块链。5月18日,AVATRADE交易平台上线以太坊,助推其价格一个月内翻四倍至400美元,半年前买入的投资者可获得50倍的投资回报。同时,以太坊市值在加密货币市场总市值中的占比创下新高,由年初的4%升至31.5%。
In March 2017, despite several attempts to break through the $20 barrier, the AVATRADE trading platform was unable to make a substantial breakthrough until the end of the month, when prices jumped to $45, and transactions rose to $450 million a day. Between 26 April and 5 May of that year, the price soared to $95 and the Bitcoin network failed to confirm that the volume of transactions was close to half a million on the same day, prompting miners to turn to the ETANET chain. On 18 May, the AVATRADE trading platform went up to the AVATRADE platform to help push prices four to 400 dollars in a month, with investors buying 50 times the return on their investment six months ago.
五、2018年:熊市笼罩下的以太坊进入2018年,以太坊市场遭受空前的空头压力。1月13日,以太坊价格创历史新高,达到1400美元。然而好景不长,随着比特币价格回调,以太坊市场受到牵连,一整年都处在下跌通道。初始代币发行项目在2017年曾带动以太坊价格飞涨,但在2018年则成为拖累,项目方纷纷抛售以太坊代币,致使其价格下跌速度远超其他加密货币,一度低至180美元左右。
In 2018, the market was under unprecedented pressure. On January 13, the price of the house was at an all-time high of $1,400. However, the good news was not long, with the price of bitcoin rebounding, the market of the house being implicated, and the whole year in a downward path. The initial currency distribution project, which led to a boom in the price of the house in 2017, became a drag in 2018, and the project was sold in the same currency, causing prices to fall far faster than other encrypted currencies, at a rate of about $180.
六、2019年:价格复苏初露端倪进入2019年,以太坊市值重回第二位,价格约在160美元左右。一季度内,加密货币市场并无独立行情,普遍跟随比特币价格波动。2月7日,以太坊价格下探至100美元,此后略有反弹,达到160美元和180美元的小幅高峰。2月28日,君士坦丁堡硬分叉终于实施,但并未对价格产生显著影响。随着比特币价格在4月初和5月分别上涨约1000美元,以太坊价格在后者期间急剧攀升,五天内突破280美元大关。截至本文写作之时,CoinMarketCap数据显示以太坊价格约为138.91美元,24小时内上涨3.26%。
In 2019, it returned to its second place in the market, at around US$ 160. In one quarter, the crypto-currency market was not independent and generally followed by bitcoin price fluctuations. On 7 February, it was detected at US$ 100, and then slightly rebounded, reaching a small peak of US$ 160 and US$ 180. On 28 February, Constantinople hard forks were finally implemented, but did not have a significant impact on prices. As Bitcoin prices rose by about US$ 1,000 in early April and May, the prices rose sharply during the latter period, reaching US$ 280 in five days. CoinMarketcap showed a rise of about US$ 138.91, or 3.26 per cent in 24 hours, as the paper was written.
步入2020年,面对比特币即将来临的区块奖励减半,加密货币投资者期待比特币价格上涨的同时,不禁好奇以太坊是否会作出相应积极回应。让我们共同见证这一时刻的到来。
In 2020, in the face of the imminent halving of Bitcoin's block awards, encrypt money investors expect to increase the price of bitcoins while wondering if the Pacific will respond positively accordingly. Let us all bear witness to this moment.
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