转自：加密货币有庄家？解密币圈背后的庄家 - 比特大猪 Mirror.xyz
Forwarded from: encrypted currency?
?
0x00 前言
Preface 0x00
每逢币价暴跌，韭菜们总会骂狗庄xxx，究竟加密货币背后有没有庄家呢？这次就来分析一下。
Every time the currency drops, the pickles call the dog xxx. Is there a dealer behind the encrypted money? Let's do it this time.
?
?
0x01 比特币BTC
0x01bitcoinBTC
先来分析比特币BTC，当前BTC价格为38900美元一个，那么BTC总市值为7357美元（46864亿人民币），常规行情下平均每日BTC的交易量为60万到70万个，那么如果一个人或者团队想要完全控制BTC的涨跌，起码要掌握日BTC交易量的一半，也就是30万到35万个BTC（约1167亿美元，7434亿人民币），我们来看看2022年3月15日福布斯全球富豪排行榜top 10，可以看出只有全球前四名富豪在赌上他所有资产的情况下才能实现精准控制BTC的涨跌。
To begin with an analysis of the BTC in Bitcoin, which currently stands at $38900, the total market value of BTC is $7357 (4686.4 billion yuan) and the average daily volume of BTC transactions averaged 600,000 to 700,000. If a person or team wants to fully control BTC's up and down, at least half of the daily BTC's volume, that is, 300,000 to 350,000 BTCs (approximately $11.67 billion, 743.4 billion yuan), we look at Top 10 of the Forbes Global Rich Men's Index of 15 March 2022, which shows that only the top four wealthy people in the world can control BTC's up and down accurately if they gamble all his assets.
?
?
由此可见世界上能精准控制BTC价格人或团队应该并不存在，如果非要扯罗斯柴尔德家族、洛克菲勒家族这类神秘财团的阴谋论，那你可以立即停止阅读本文，因为阴谋论甚至可以说这些神秘财团控制全世界。
It follows that there should be no precise control of the BTC pricers or teams in the world, and if you do not want to draw on the conspiracy theories of the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers, etc., you can immediately stop reading this paper, because conspiracy theories can even be said to control the world.
?
虽然目前世界上没有人能完全控制BTC的价格，但我认为有巨大资金买入BTC时依然会造成短暂的“拉盘”现象。举个例子，如果灰度信托忽然买入30亿美元的BTC，那么盘面就会出现所谓的“拉盘”现象，这种现象应该属于股票市场里所谓的“主力买入”。
While no one in the world currently controls BTC’s prices completely, I believe that large sums of money buy into BTC, which would still create a short-term “drawn-up” phenomenon. For example, if the Greyscale Trust suddenly buys $3 billion in BTC, there would be a so-called “drawn-up” phenomenon on the board, which should be the so-called “buy-in” in the stock market.
?
?
还有一种出现“拉盘”的原因就是名人效应，比如像Elon Musk马斯克这种全球顶级企业家为BTC呐喊一下，那么BTC的买入情绪会空前高涨，大量散户会因此买入BTC造成所谓的“拉盘”现场。同理，富裕国家出台利好BTC的政策时，交易情绪也会空前高涨并“拉盘”。
There is also one reason for the “plate”: the celebrity effect, for example, when top global entrepreneurs like Elon Muskmask shout for BTC, the BTC buy-in sentiment will rise unprecedented, and the BTC will be bought by a large number of splits to create the so-called “plate.” By the same token, when rich countries put in good BTC policies, the trade sentiment will also rise at an unprecedented rate and “draw-down.”
换位思考，如果比尔盖茨忽然宣布非常看好“爱奇艺”的股票，那么“爱奇艺”的股价大概率连续涨停10天。
Thinking differently, if Bill Gates suddenly announces a stock that is very well regarded as “Aichi culture”, the share price of “Aichi culture” would probably have risen for about 10 days.
?
?
不过，当BTC的避险和投资属性被越来越多人认可，并且市值超越黄金达到极其可怕的时候，这种效应所造成的盘面影响也只会是蜻蜓点水了。
However, at a time when the BTC's risk avoidance and investment attributes are increasingly recognized and the market value goes beyond gold to an extremely terrible level, the implications of this effect can only be the tipping point.
?
说个题外话，大多数人亏钱总是不愿意承认自己能力不行、眼光不行，而是喜欢把原因归咎到“庄家”、“时运”、“风水”这种假想敌头上，这也是每个投资领域都有90%投资者亏钱的原因，其实那些亏钱的人大多数都挺活该的。
To put it another way, most people do not want to admit that they are incapable of doing so, but rather prefer to blame the hypotheses of “bankers”, “fashion” and “fashion” for the loss of 90 per cent of investors in each area of investment, most of whom deserve it.
?
以上分析对以太坊ETH同样适用。
The above analysis also applies to Etheria ETH.
?
结论：
Conclusions:
- 世界上能精准控制BTC价格人或团队应该目前并不存在。
- 主力巨鲸买入、名人效应、大国政策都会是影响短期BTC价格涨跌的原因。
- 以太坊同理
?
?
0x02 山寨币
0x02
一般来说除BTC和ETH外，其他的加密货币都属于山寨币。
In general, except for BTC and ETH, the other encrypted currencies belong to the mountain currency.
?
大部分山寨币都有如下特点：
Most of them have the following characteristics:
- 市值低
- 开发团队或基金会持币数占比大
- 日均成交量不高
?
?
这里抛开LTC、ETC、BCH、XMR、DASH等老牌山寨不谈。
It leaves behind the old sites of LTC, ETC, BCH, XMR, DASH, etc.
?
我们来分析前段时间比较火的加密货币people，people的当前市值为17亿人民币左右，日交易量9亿人民币，团队已解散。对于这种市值低、日交易量低的币种，只要稍微有点实力的资金团队就能轻松完全对people进行控盘。
We will analyse the encoded currency of the earlier period, people, whose current market value is around RMB 1.7 billion, with a daily turnover of RMB 900 million, the team has been disbanded. For this currency, which has a low market value and a low daily turnover, a small pool of money can easily and completely control the people.
?
而且people还是属于热度top 5的山寨币，那么其他热度更低的山寨币有些仅仅几千万的市值，日均交易量只有几百万，要操控这些山寨币根本不需要什么资金团队，只要稍微有钱一点的大户就能完全操控它的价格。
And people are still hot tots, so some of the other less hot tons have a market value of just tens of millions of dollars per day, and there is no need for a fund team to manipulate them, and a large family with a little more money can fully control its price.
?
?
最后说一下所谓的“公链”项目和老牌山寨币，这些项目本质上只是fork(可以简单理解为二次开发)比特币或以太坊的山寨项目，目前很多老牌山寨币和“公链”市值非常高，看起来无法操控币价，但其实它的开发团队或所谓的“基金会”掌握了近50%的币，像XRP这种市值极高的老牌山寨币团队持币数甚至一度超过90%，这些山寨币和“公链”的团队想要操纵币价也是比较简单的事情。
Finally, to conclude with the so-called “public chain” projects and old mountain mounds, which are essentially fork (which can be understood simply as secondary development) bitcoins or pagodas, many of which now have very high market value and do not appear to be able to control currency prices, but whose development teams or so-called “funds” hold nearly 50 per cent of the currency, and which at one time hold more than 90 per cent of the currency, it is also relatively simple for groups such as XRP and the “public chain” to try to manipulate currency prices.
?
?
但并不是所有山寨币的币价都可以轻易被操控，比如：LTC、ETC、BCH、XMR这几个老牌山寨币，由于筹码分散、市值过高，所以也很难对其价格进行操控。
But not all of them can be easily manipulated, for example: LTC, ETC, BCH, XMR, the old ones, whose price is difficult to control because of the fragmentation of the chips and the overvalued market value.
?
结论：
Conclusions:
?
- 市值低的山寨币极容易被操控币价，很可能存在“庄家”
- 市值高的山寨币如果团队持有大量的币，那么团队很轻易就能操控币价，团队就是“庄家”
- 老牌山寨币我认为只有LTC、ETC、BCH、XMR很难被操纵价格
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论