比特币暴跌，虚拟货币再遇重挫

比特币跌幅近10%、以太坊跌幅9%、SOL跌幅11%、狗狗币跌幅9.4%……在刚刚过去的一周，不仅仅是比特币经历连环跌，虚拟货币市场整体均遭重挫。

Bitcoin fell by almost 10 per cent, Etherby by 9 per cent, SOL by 11 per cent, dogcoins by 9.4 per cent...In the last week, not only did Bitcoin experience a series of collapses, but the virtual currency market as a whole suffered a severe setback.

价格暴跌下，资产缩水、连连爆单，币圈投机者直言“熊市已来”，但这也不影响交易所的拉客生意，北京商报记者注意到，目前仍有交易所向用户发出跟单邀请，看似“赚钱”的交易，殊不知背后价格剧烈波动下，仍是风险重重……

Prices have fallen, assets have shrunk, money circles speculators have said “The City of Bears has come”, but this has not affected the exchange's soliciting business. According to the Beijing newspaper journalists, there are still exchanges that offer customers a list invitation for transactions that appear to be “profit-making” transactions, without knowing the price volatility behind them, which remains risky...

缘何重挫不止

There's more to it than anything else.

北京时间6月26日，北京商报记者注意到，自6月20日起至6月25日，比特币从6.6万美元高位价格，相继跌破6.5万美元、6.4万美元，更是在6月24日再度闪崩，从6.4万美元一路下挫跌破6万美元关口，报59772美元。不过，截至6月26日18时10分，比特币价格有所回调，价格报61328美元，24小时跌幅0.27%，一周内跌幅5.39%，近一月跌幅高达9.55%。

On 26 June Beijing time, a reporter from the Beijing Business Press noted that between 20 June and 25 June, Bitcoin had fallen from a high price of $66,000 to $65,000 and $64,000, and again on 24 June, from $64,000 to $60,000. However, at 1810 hours on 26 June, Bitcoin prices had rebounded, with a price of $61328 and a decline of 0.27 per cent in 24 hours, a decline of 5.39 per cent in a week and a fall of 9.55 per cent in recent January.

“每次跌完感觉能反弹的时候但还是继续下跌，看着账户一直缩水是真难受。”一币圈投资者向北京商报记者直言，“‘多军’太难了，每次被爆了都认为会有反弹，但是每次都是继续被爆，都快赶上‘爆竹厂’了。”

“It's hard to see the accounts shrink every time they fall, but continue to do so.” “It's too hard for a dollar-based investor to tell a Beijing businessman that every time they blow up, they think they're going to bounce, but every time they're going to blow, they're catching up with a firework.”

比特币暴跌之下，虚拟货币市场其他币种同样未幸免于难。其中，以太坊一月内跌幅达10.27%；SOL一周跌幅2.36%，一月内跌幅超18.59%；狗狗币一月内跌幅更是高达22.66%。

The virtual currency market has not been spared by the fall of Bitcoin. Among them, the decline was 10.27 per cent in one month in Ethio; the decline in SOL was 2.36 per cent in a week, more than 18.59 per cent in one month; and the fall in dog money was 22.66 per cent in a month.

近期比特币和虚拟货币市场的剧烈下跌，在业内看来，是多方面因素共同作用的结果。正如中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁在接受北京商报记者采访时指出，一方面，全球宏观经济环境的不确定性和金融市场的波动直接影响了虚拟货币市场。特别是英伟达的股价从历史最高点回落，抑制了纳斯达克科技股的进一步新高，同时也降低了一些美股市场的火热情绪，进一步影响了投资者对高风险资产的信心。

As the Co-Chair of the China Communications Industry Association’s District Chain Commission and the Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association stated in an interview with a journalist from the Beijing Business Journal, on the one hand, uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment and volatility in financial markets have had a direct impact on virtual money markets. In particular, British Weida’s stock prices have fallen from historical peaks, deterring a further upturn in NASDAQ’s science and technology unit, while reducing the enthusiasm in some US markets and further undermining investors’ confidence in high-risk assets.

另一方面，市场内部的技术性因素同样不可忽视。比特币在短期内连续跌破多个关键支撑位，引发大量止损卖单，加剧了价格下跌。同时，一些大型持币者的大量抛售行为对市场造成了冲击，触发了连锁反应，引发更多中小投资者的跟风抛售。

Bitcoin’s successive collapse of several key support positions in the short term has caused a large stop to sales, which has exacerbated price declines. At the same time, a large number of sales by large currency holders have hit the market, triggering a chain reaction, triggering more small and medium-sized investors to sell.

“特别重要的是，Mt.Gox的偿还计划对市场造成了巨大压力。Mt.Gox受托人宣布将于7月初开始偿还142000枚BTC（约87.2亿美元）和143000枚BCH（约5076.5万美元），总计约87.7亿美元。由于这一消息带来的预期抛售压力巨大，市场迅速反应，开始大幅下跌。”于佳宁认为，尤其是在当前市场流动性较差的情况下，巨额抛售预期对已经恐慌的市场造成了进一步打击，导致许多投资者选择迅速退出观望。

“It is particularly important that Mt. Gox’s repayment plan put enormous pressure on the market. The trustee of Mt. Gox announced that early in July he would begin to repay 142,000 BTCs (approximately $8.72 billion) and 143,000 BCHs (approximately $50.765 million), totalling about $8.77 billion. As a result of this news, expectations of sales were high and the market responded rapidly and began to fall sharply.” In Janing’s opinion, especially in the current context of poor market liquidity, the huge sales expectations had further hit already troubled markets, leading many investors to opt out quickly.

警惕跟单风险

Watch out for billboard risks.

尽管价格暴跌不断，但相较于去年末，比特币价格仍保持着较高水平。因此，仍有一些炒作者涌入其中，甚至在一些平台的营销拉动下推动新手入局。

Bitcoin prices remained at a higher level than they were at the end of last year, despite a sharp fall in prices. As a result, a number of pro-authors have poured in, even pushing for new entry under the marketing drive of some platforms.

北京商报记者注意到，近日，币安交易所就频频向用户发出跟单邀请，宣称参与模拟跟单交易大赛，或通过“探索”模块体验滑动功能并进行跟单交易，即可瓜分3万USDT。

According to a reporter from the Beijing Business Journal, in recent days, the Exchange has frequently issued a documentary invitation to users to participate in a simulating documentary trade competition, or to experience slides and billings through a “exploration” module, which would result in a split of 30,000 USDTs.

据介绍，该跟单活动截至6月28日，一方面用户可参与模拟跟单，瓜分2万USDT，参与方式是创建至少1个模拟跟单项目，即可根据该模拟跟单盈亏排名瓜分奖励；另外则是通过“探索”选项卡，瓜分1万USDT，具体方式是通过“探索”模块创建至少1个跟单交易项目，在“探索”模块滑动投资组合，根据日均滑动次数瓜分奖励。

As at 28 June, it was presented that, on the one hand, users could participate in the simulation sheet, with 20,000 USDTs, by creating at least one analogue documentary project, which would be rewarded with a ranking of 10,000 USDTs through a “exploration” tab, by creating at least one documentary transaction through the “exploration” module, and by sliding the portfolio in the “exploration” module, with incentives divided according to the average number of slides per day.

看看轻松一滑就可参与的跟单交易，背后隐患同样不小。

Look how easy it is to be involved in a documentary deal, with the same risks behind it.

“交易所向用户发出跟单邀请存在相对较高的风险。”于佳宁直言，跟单交易本质上是让投资者复制其他交易者的操作，这可能导致投资者失去独立判断能力，盲目跟随市场波动。许多跟单平台上的“明星”交易者可能在短期内表现优异，但他们的策略并不一定适合所有投资者，特别是在市场波动剧烈的情况下，风险尤为突出。

“There is a relatively high risk that the exchange will issue a note invitation to users.” In Janin, it is essentially to allow investors to replicate the operations of other traders, which may result in investors losing their ability to judge independently and blindly follow market fluctuations. Many “star” traders on the documentary platform may perform excellently in the short term, but their tactics do not necessarily suit all investors, especially when markets are volatile.

另外，交易所通过这样的活动吸引用户，可能会引发过度交易的行为。频繁交易不仅会增加交易成本，还会让投资者在高波动市场中承担更大的风险。于佳宁表示，在市场不稳定的情况下，短期内的频繁操作可能导致严重的财务损失，投资者应谨慎对待。

In addition, exchanges attract users through such activities, which may lead to excessive transactions. Frequent transactions not only increase transaction costs, but also place investors at greater risk in highly volatile markets.

值得注意的是，交易所的此类活动还可能隐藏潜在的利益冲突。例如，一些小平台可能通过增加交易量来获取更多的交易手续费，甚至可能存在操控市场的嫌疑。投资者在参与这些活动时，应当保持警惕，仔细阅读相关规则和条款，避免成为平台获利的工具。

It is worth noting that such activities of the exchange may also hide potential conflicts of interest. For example, some small platforms may acquire additional transaction fees by increasing the volume of transactions, or may even be suspicious of managing markets.

“跟单操作有部分是骗局，你贪差价，别人贪你的本金。即便不是骗局，这种跟单操作本身也毫无意义。”知名经济学者盘和林同样说道。

"Something about a documentary operation is a scam, you're a briber, you're a briber. Even if it isn't a trick, it's a documentary operation that doesn't make sense in itself." The leading economists and Lin say the same thing.

针对跟单交易相关风险，北京商报记者向币安交易所相关负责人求证采访，但截至发稿未获得回应。

In response to the risks associated with documentary transactions, a Beijing news reporter interviewed the relevant head of the currency exchange, but did not receive a response as of the date of the release.

高压监管持续

High-pressure regulation continues.

事实上，除了跟单交易的风险，业内认为，投资者还需要警惕虚拟货币市场的其他问题。

In fact, in addition to the risks of documentary transactions, it was felt that investors also needed to be vigilant about other issues of the virtual currency market.

例如市场操纵的风险，虚拟货币市场相对传统金融市场监管较少，容易受到大户（“鲸鱼”）操控，价格波动剧烈。此外还有安全风险，许多交易所的安全措施不到位，黑客攻击、资金丢失等事件时有发生，投资者的资金安全难以保障。

For example, there is a risk of market manipulation, virtual money markets are less regulated than traditional financial markets, vulnerable to large-scale control (“whals”) and highly volatile prices. There are also security risks, many exchanges have inadequate security measures, hacker attacks, loss of funds, etc., and investors’ financial security is difficult to secure.

于佳宁告诉北京商报记者，对于加密行业而言，市场走向主流化、合规化、机构化是不可逆转的趋势。在加密资产发展的早期阶段，全球投资者主要以散户为主。但随着市场体系的逐步成熟，机构投资者的比重近年来与日俱增，现已成为该市场的重要参与者。合规化是加密市场走向主流化的重要一步。各国监管机构逐步出台相关政策，规范加密资产的交易和管理。这些政策旨在防止市场操纵、洗钱和其他非法活动，同时保护投资者的权益。

As the market system matures, however, the share of institutional investors has grown in recent years and has become an important player in the market. Compliance is an important step toward mainstreaming the encryption market. National regulators are gradually putting in place policies to regulate the transactions and management of encrypted assets.

不过，任何虚拟货币相关业务活动，在我国仍属于非法金融活动。继人民银行等部门多次发布关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币交易炒作风险的通知后，北京商报记者注意到，就在前不久，有地方监管提示风险，广大市民要提高警惕，增强风险防范意识和识别能力，自觉远离“虚拟货币”交易炒作、非法集资等违法金融活动，谨防个人财产遭受损失，如有参与其中，应尽快退出。

However, any virtual currency-related operations are still illegal in our country. Following numerous circulars issued by departments such as the People's Bank to further prevent and deal with the risks associated with virtual currency transactions, the Beijing Chamber of Commerce journalists noted that, just recently, there were local regulatory risks, that the public at large needed to be vigilant, raise awareness and identify risks, feel free from illegal financial activities such as “virtual currency” transactions, illegal fund-raising, etc., and to guard against the loss of personal property and, if involved, withdraw as soon as possible.

“未来的监管措施将更加严格和全面，更多国家可能会出台明确的法律法规，对虚拟货币的定义和交易、资产发行、DeFi、稳定币和其他新兴虚拟资产等活动进行规范，还将包括加强对交易所的监管，加大对市场操纵行为的打击力度。虚拟货币市场的高波动性和易操控性使得市场操纵行为频繁发生，未来监管将更注重打击此类行为，保护投资者权益。”展望后续监管走向，于佳宁分析道。

“Future regulatory measures will be stricter and more comprehensive, with more countries likely to put in place clear laws and regulations regulating activities such as the definition and transaction of virtual currency, asset issuance, deFi, stable currency, and other emerging virtual assets, and will also include stronger regulation of exchanges and a greater blow to market manipulation. The volatility and ease of manipulation in virtual currency markets makes market manipulation more frequent, and future regulation will focus more on combating such behaviour and protecting investors’ rights.” Looking ahead to follow-up regulation, it will be in Gianning's analysis.

盘和林则进一步称，在国外，随着ETF的出现，虚拟货币交易将逐步纳入到金融监管体系当中，但在国内可以预见的是，仍将继续保持对虚拟货币高压监管态势。

On the other hand, it was further stated that, abroad, with the emergence of ETFs, virtual currency transactions would gradually be integrated into the financial regulatory system, but it could be foreseen that the regulatory posture of virtual currency overhang would continue to be maintained at the domestic level.

总而言之，虚拟资产相关交易风险极高，业内建议，对于投资者而言，提高风险意识是关键，应充分了解市场的高波动性和不确定性，避免盲目跟风和过度杠杆操作。

In summary, virtual asset-related transactions are highly risky, and intra-industry advice suggests that raising risk awareness is critical for investors to fully understand the high volatility and uncertainty of markets, avoiding blindness and overleveraging.

北京商报记者 刘四红

Reporter, Beijing Business Journal, Liu Xiaohong