《货币的界碑：数字货币的经济逻辑》｜比特币加速货币演化，揭开未来货币可能的样子

来源：北京大学国家发展研究院

Source: National Development Institute, Beijing University

看见风暴

开始关注比特币，是很早的事情。早先市场不成熟，有很多免费的利润，导师国青先生看得清楚，谈笑间轻松捡钱。我则始终没有看穿，只是默默关注，有一眼没一眼地看着。不过，身为老派的经济学学生，对货币问题一直着迷，看到这个新生事物，自然会琢磨其货币含义，一直放在脑子里，不曾放下。

It was early to start paying attention to bitcoin. The market was immature, and there was a lot of free profits, and Mr. Kuoqing, the mentor, saw it clearly and smiled so easily, that I never looked through it, but looked at it in silence. But, as an old school student in economics, there was always an obsession with money, and it was natural to see this new thing in its monetary meaning and keep it in my head and never put it down.

2019年6月18日，脸书公司a牵头成立了天秤币协会，并发布天秤币（Libra）白皮书。那一天，有一道闪电，撕破了货币的黑暗。一闪即逝间，让人似乎看到了货币的未来，至今依然清晰记得，当时有头皮发麻、夜不能寐的感觉。为了窥视那重归的黑暗，我开始研究加密货币。

On June 18, 2019, a Facebook company led the establishment of the Libra Association and issued a White Paper. On that day, there was a flash of lightning that ripped through the dark of the currency. It seemed to see the future of the currency, and it was still clear that there was a feeling of hair and night. In order to see the dark of return, I began to look at encrypted money.

当时，比特币价格已经很高，单价曾接近2万美元，回调后在万美元左右波动，总市值相当于一家大型上市公司。由于比特币并没有所谓“内在价值”，价格又这么高，很多人认为比特币就是投机，早晚会灰飞烟灭。

At that time, the price of Bitcoin was already high, the unit price was close to $20,000, and then it fluctuated around the dollar, the total market value being equivalent to that of a large listed company. Since Bitcoin did not have what it called “inherent value” and the price was so high, many thought that Bitcoin was speculative and would soon be wiped out.

因为研究金融多年，我对“投机论”是有免疫力的。投机是金融市场的天然组成部分，不可或缺。对于稍有规模的市场而言，有投机并不奇怪，没有投机才奇怪。把问题归因于投机，其实是掩盖问题，而不是分析问题。投机背后的原因，才是有意义的切入点。至于投机本身，连切入点都不算。

I am immune to “speculation” for years because of research into finance. Speculation is a natural component of financial markets, indispensable. Speculation is not surprising for a small market.

技术信用

"Technology Credit"

物理意义上，比特币是一串加密字符，本身毫无价值，更没有所谓“内在价值”。正因为如此，比特币的天价，引人深思。

In physical terms, bitcoin is a string of cryptographic characters that are of no value in themselves, much less the so-called "inherent value." And that's why, bitcoin's natural value is thought-provoking.

破解比特币谜题的切入点，是和主权货币比较，比如和美元比较。比特币没有内在价值，美元就有吗？美元也没有的，还算精致的印刷品而已。美元的价值，来自美国政府的信用背书，借助美国政府的强大信用，在美国和全球其他地方流通。其实，各国的货币都没有内在价值，都依赖本国政府的信用而流通。

The entry point for deciphering the Bitcoin puzzle is to compare with sovereign currencies, such as the United States dollar. Bitcoins have no intrinsic value, so is the United States dollar? Neither is the United States dollar, nor is it a fine print. The value of the dollar, a credit endorsement from the United States government, circulates in the United States and the rest of the globe with its strong creditworthiness.

和纸币一样，比特币也没有内在价值，借助一种新的信用，叫作“技术信用”在网络上流通。所谓技术信用，是比特币借用一套叫作“区块链”的技术体系，塑造了全公开、分布式、防篡改、可追溯的数据库，这个数据库任何人都可以查看，公开透明，极难篡改，实际上是一种脱离任何人控制的存在，因此获得很多人的信任。

Like banknotes, bitcoin has no intrinsic value, and it circulates online with a new credit called “technical credit.” Technical credit is a technological system called a “block chain” that shapes an open, distributed, tamper-proof, retrospective database that anyone can view, is transparent, extremely difficult to tamper with, is actually a presence that is outside the control of anyone and thus enjoys the trust of many.

对于任何资产而言，安全且不被人为操控，是非常有吸引力的。既然政府信用可以支撑价值几百万亿美元的主权货币，技术信用支撑价值区区几千亿美元的比特币，就毫不奇怪了。这世界上的财富数以万亿、兆亿美元计，分散一点点到比特币上，就是几千亿美元了。何况，政府信用虽然强大，却是可以被人为操控的。技术信用公开透明、不受人为操控的特点，比政府信用更让人信服。

It is not surprising that government credit can support millions of billions of dollars of sovereign money, and technical credit can support hundreds of billions of dollars of bitcoins. The world’s wealth is trillions of trillions of dollars, trillions of dollars, spread to bitcoins, and hundreds of billions of dollars.

任何资产价值的背后，终究都是信用。在这个意义上，比特币和主权货币并无区别。最后要比较的，是信用的强度、稳健度。一种货币或资产，如果能获得更多、更强的信用支撑，其价值会更大。

Behind the value of any asset is credit. In this sense, there is no difference between a bitcoin and a sovereign currency. The final comparison is the strength and robustness of credit. A currency or asset will be more valuable if it is supported by more and stronger credit.

主权货币之殇

sovereign currency

现代社会，法币由政府发行，强势政府的法币地位很高。美元的信用，就体现了这种强势政府的信用。不过，这种信用远非没有诟病。2008年金融危机之后，以及2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发后，美、欧、日的三大央行竞相印钞，使得人们对于货币超发的担心越来越大，对于替代货币和资产的需求越来越大。

In modern times, the French currency is issued by the government, and the French currency of a strong government has a high status. The credit of the dollar is an expression of this strong government.

货币超发的危害很多，这里提两点。其一是通货膨胀，也就是货币贬值。居民辛辛苦苦挣来的收入和财富，被货币稀释。因此，人们对于货币超发，是很警惕和厌恶的。

One is inflation, which is the devaluation of the currency. The income and wealth of the population, which they struggle to earn, are diluted by the currency. Thus, people are wary and repulsive of the currency’s excesses.

其二是“劫贫济富”。超发的货币，并不是在人群中均匀分布的，总是有人先拿到，有人后拿到。先拿到的，往往是主流的金融机构和大型商业机构，成本很低。后拿到的人，则不得不用自己的劳动和资产去交换，成本很高。而且，后拿到货币的，往往是中小微企业、普通居民这些相对弱势的群体。因此，货币超发其实是“劫贫济富”的，会导致更大的不平等。主权货币由政府主导发行，但是对于财富的分配远远不是中性的。距离发行中心近的人，会分享这个“铸币税”。

The second is “stealing from the poor to the rich.” The excess money is not evenly distributed among the population. It is always available first, and it is always acquired later. The first, often by mainstream financial and large business institutions, is very low-cost. The second person who gets it has to exchange his labour and assets, and it is very costly. And the second person who gets the money, often by the relatively vulnerable groups of small and medium-sized enterprises and ordinary residents.

2008年金融危机以来，美欧日的印钞比赛，愈发激烈。比特币的诞生，正是在这样的背景之下。设计之初，比特币的总量就被固定，杜绝了货币超发的可能性，让人隐隐看到“数字黄金”的影子。巧合的是，比特币的诞生，在雷曼兄弟公司倒闭一个半月之后，第一枚比特币还加上了“英国财政处于实施第二轮银行紧急援助的边缘”的额外标注。因此，比特币的诞生，带着反抗传统金融机构的色彩。

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the American-European-Japanese printing competition has become more intense. The birth of Bitcoin was in this context. At the beginning of the design, the amount of Bitcoin was fixed, eliminating the possibility of over-emitting the money, and creating the shadow of “digital gold.” Coincidentally, the birth of Bitcoin, after a month and a half of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, added an additional sign that “the British treasury is on the verge of implementing the second round of bank emergency aid.”

天秤币白皮书的发布，在比特币诞生10年后，更加清楚地体现了技术主体对传统金融的反抗。天秤币的愿景，是建立“全球货币”，“服务亿万人的金融基础设施”。依托脸书公司的巨大网络社区，天秤币给人无限遐想。不过，正因为想象空间太大，对主流货币的潜在冲击太大，天秤币受到主权货币的抵制，几经周折也未能推出，最后胎死腹中。

Ten years after Bitcoin’s birth, the publication of the White Paper on the scales was a clearer expression of the resistance of technocrats to traditional finance. The vision of the scales is to build a “global currency” and “financial infrastructure for millions of people.”

未来的货币

/strang'

比特币和天秤币先后向主权货币发起冲击，值得深思。2019年以后，主流中央银行都加速了央行数字货币的研发，算是对这一冲击的回应。那么，比特币是货币吗？能取代主权货币的地位吗？

After 2019, mainstream central banks accelerated the development of central banks’ digital currencies as a response to that shock. So, is Bitcoins a currency?

在可预见的未来，加密货币并不能取代主权货币。比特币等加密货币，无法完成货币的职能，更多是一种数字资产，充当人们的投资工具。而且，脱离主权背书的加密货币，不可能得到政府的支持，无法广泛流通。这一点，从天秤币的胎死腹中就可以看出来。

Encrypted currencies cannot replace sovereign currencies in the foreseeable future. They cannot perform monetary functions, much more as a digital asset, and act as an investment tool for people.

一个无法忽视的可能性，是主权货币会吸收加密货币的优点，变得更加强大。换句话说，主权货币如果能获得主权信用和技术信用的双重加持，会变得更加强大。问题是，什么样的主权货币，能够获得双重信用的加持。

One possibility that cannot be ignored is that sovereign currencies will become stronger by absorbing the advantages of encrypted currencies. In other words, sovereign currencies will become stronger if they are able to gain dual ownership of sovereign credit and technical credit.

思考这个问题，在当今尤其重要。二战以后，美元成为国际货币体系的支柱，成为事实上的世界货币，至今已经70多年。美元对于战后的经济繁荣，当然有很大贡献，可是那句“我们的美元，你们的问题”的傲慢表述，也让人清晰看到了“嚣张的特权”。一定程度上，美元从全世界收取“铸币税”，支撑了美国的繁荣。各国不得不依赖美元，也不得不缴纳这个“铸币税”。

After World War II, the dollar became the backbone of the international monetary system, the de facto world currency, for more than 70 years now. The dollar contributed significantly to post-war economic prosperity, of course, but the arrogant expression “our dollar, your problems” also made it clear that the dollar was “extremely privileged.” To some extent, the dollar collected a “constructed coin tax” from the world, which underpinned the prosperity of the United States.

未来的货币体系是什么样的？美元的世界货币地位，还能保持多久？加密货币技术的兴起与成熟，对货币体系有何影响？发展中国家，能利用数字技术，增强本国货币的信用吗？

What is the future of the monetary system? How long will the dollar remain in the world’s monetary position? How does the emergence and maturity of cryptographic currency technology affect the monetary system?

举个例子。人民币国际化的问题，已经提了很久，可是进展并不快，在国际储备、计价、清算中的比例还很低。人民币能借助数字技术，加速国际化的进程吗？中国是仅次于美国的第二大经济体，按道理人民币应该在未来国际货币体系中扮演重要角色，那么问题来了：数字技术的出现，是帮助还是阻碍人民币国际化？既往经验看，最强者往往会利用新技术，增强自己的地位。从这个角度看，数字技术是有利于美元的，会帮助美元巩固自己的国际地位。数字技术出现后，人民币要挑战美元的地位，有可能会更难。

For example, the issue of the internationalization of the renminbi has been raised for a long time, but progress has been slow, and the share in international reserves, denominated and liquidated is still low. Can the renminbi accelerate the process of internationalization with the help of digital technology? After the second largest economy in the United States, China should rightly play an important role in the future international monetary system.

重构的信仰

Reconstructed Faith

未来的货币体系，依然很不确定。唯一确定的，是这个体系在快速演化中。为了理解未来的演化，我们必须对货币的本质有更深的理解。我们所知道的一切，包括一些坚信的信条，可能都是教条，都在被打破的过程中。

The future monetary system is still uncertain. The only certainty is that it is evolving rapidly. In order to understand the evolution of the future, we must have a deeper understanding of the nature of the currency. Everything we know, including some of the beliefs we believe, may be dogmatic, and are being broken.

还记得20世纪90年代，当时我还在念大学，日本因为实行宽松的货币政策，被美国的主流经济学家普遍批评。可是，2008年的金融危机中，美国政府的宽松力度，比日本有过之而无不及，还发明了各种理论来证明。到了2020年，美国、欧洲、日本的三大央行开动印钞机，已经不需要任何解释了，而是一场争先恐后的比赛。21世纪以来欧美央行的实践表明，20世纪90年代对日本的批评，并不成立。如果当初日本没有宽松货币，后果可能不堪设想。

Remember, in the 1990s, when I was still in college, Japan was widely criticized by mainstream economists in the United States for its loose monetary policy. But, in the 2008 financial crisis, the United States government was more relaxed than it had been in Japan, and various theories were invented to prove it.

2022年以来，日本央行的行为特别有意思。在全球通胀的大背景下，日本依然坚持宽松的货币政策，理由是扣除能源和食品的核心通胀依然偏低。实际上，日本的通胀在4月以后已经较高，并且连续攀升。只不过，和欧美相比，日本的通胀还是低很多。到了2023年，日本央行换行长，黑田东彦卸任，植田和男接任，新行长依然表态坚持货币宽松。

Indeed, inflation in Japan has been higher since April, and has been rising continuously. Only, compared to Europe and America, inflation in Japan is much lower.

站在30年前，今天的货币政策可谓魔幻。在主要大国中，中国是唯一坚持货币纪律的国家，显得如此另类。清晰的信号是，信仰已经改变，历史已经转折，人类货币体系的未来充满变数。

Among the major powers, China is the only country that adheres to monetary discipline, and this is so different. The clear signal is that faith has changed, history has changed, and the future of the human monetary system is highly variable.

这世界并没有真相，只有认知。人类对于货币的认知，在快速地变化。这种变化，和全球局势的变化结合在一起，使得局势更加错综复杂。2018年以来，中美摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突，接连冲击全球格局，使得未来的治理格局扑朔迷离。在全球竞争中，货币竞争是重要的一环。货币竞争的结果，很可能决定未来的经济格局。

This change, combined with changes in the global situation, has made the situation even more complex. Since 2018, friction between the US and China, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the Russian-Turkish conflict and successive shocks to the global landscape have led to confusion about future governance patterns.

比特币不是货币，比特币的未来也并不清楚，但是比特币的出现，加速了货币的演化，揭开了未来货币可能的样子。几乎可以断言，未来的货币一定包含比特币的某些要素。因此，尽管比特币不是货币，但具有变革性的意义，是货币的界碑。本书中，我们梳理加密货币的演化进程，提炼背后的经济逻辑，分析对未来货币的影响。

Bitcoins are not currencies, and the future of bitcoins is not clear, but the emergence of bitcoins accelerates the evolution of currencies, revealing the potential of future currencies. It is almost certain that future currencies must contain certain elements of bitcoins.

内容简介

Introduction

《货币的界碑：数字货币的经济逻辑》

The Emblem of Currency: The Economic Logic of Digital Currency

定价：79元

Pricing: $79

ISBN：9787521752038

出版时间：2023-03-01

Publication time: 2023-03-01

以比特币为代表的数字货币到底是不是炒作？为什么有的有价值，有的没有价值？它们背后的经济逻辑和本质是什么？这些数字货币与央行正在推行的央行数字货币之间有何关联？当下流行的加密技术和正在推广的数字货币会如何改变我们的未来？……

Are digital currencies represented by bitcoin or not? Why is there value, or is there no value? What are the economic logic and essence behind them? How are these numbers related to the central bank’s digital currency that central banks are promoting?

本书基于徐远老师多年来对于货币、人民币、金融体系的研究，系统梳理了以比特币为代表的数字货币的发展，思考其中的重要问题，用经济学最朴素的需求、价格、价值等逻辑梳理数字货币的发展、价格变化、发展趋势等，并探讨其对未来的影响，帮助读者弄清其背后的经济逻辑及未来。

Based on his years of research into money, renminbi, and financial systems, Mr. Seo-won has systematized the development of digital money, represented by bitcoin, reflecting on the important issues involved in it, using the logic of economics, such as simple demand, prices, values, etc., to streamline the development of digital money, price changes, trends, etc., and to explore its implications for the future, helping readers to understand the economic logic behind it and the future.

作者介绍

The author of presents

徐远，北京大学国家发展研究院金融学教授，北京大学数字金融研究中心研究员，博士生导师，美国杜克大学经济学博士。研究领域为宏观经济、金融市场、中国经济改革，对中国宏观经济形势、金融投资、汇率波动、房地产、城市化等问题有深入研究。

Xu Wan, Professor of Finance at the Beijing University Institute of National Development Studies, Researcher at the Beijing University Center for Digital Finance Studies, Ph.D. Professor, and Doctor of Economics at Duke University in the United States. The areas of research are macroeconomics, financial markets, economic reforms in China, and there are in-depth studies on China’s macroeconomic situation, financial investment, exchange rate fluctuations, real estate, urbanization, etc.

著有《城里的房子》《经济的律动》《从工业化到城市化》《徐远的投资课》《房价的逻辑》等作品，在《金融期刊》（TheJournalofFinance）、《金融评论》（ReviewofFinance）、《经济研究》、《管理世界》等国内一流学术期刊发表论文40多篇。

Writings such as Houses in the City, The Economic Dynamics, From Industrialization to Urbanization, The Logic of House Prices, and more than 40 papers in leading national academic journals such as The Journal of Finance, Reviewoffinance, Economic Research, Managing the World.

目录

Catalogue

第一部分比特币革命

The First Bitcoin Revolution

第一章绪论：比特币革命

Chapter I: The Bitcoin Revolution

第二章祛魅：从一文不名到烟花绚烂

Chapter two: From nothing to fireworks.

第三章归真：比特币是货币吗？

Chapter three is true: is Bitcoin a currency?

第二部分加密货币江湖

Second part of the encrypted currency

第四章加密江湖全景图

Chapter IV. Encryption of the panorama of the river

第五章分叉：比特币不同参数的尝试

Chapter V fork: Attempts at different bitcoin parameters

第六章通道：稳定币链接新旧世界

Chapter VI: Stabilizing currency links to old and new worlds

第七章边缘：ICO革命

On the edge of Chapter VII: The ICO Revolution

第八章进阶：以太坊的野心

The eighth step: Ether's ambition

第三部分无尽的梦想

Part three of the endless dream.

第九章悲情：天秤币胎死腹中

"Chapter IX: Death in the womb of the Heavenly Ribbon."

第十章狂想：EOS乌托邦

Chapter X: EOS Utopia

第十一章未来：所有过往，皆为序章

Chapter XI on the future: all past, chapter by chapter

附录1：比特币前传

Appendix 1: Forward transmission of Bitcoin

附录2：比特币大事记

Appendix 2: Bitcoin Highlights

附录3：比特币分叉简史

Appendix 3: Brief history of bitcoin splits

附录4：区块链原理：技术表述

Appendix 4: Principles of Block Chains: Technical Description

附录5：区块链原理：功能表述

Appendix 5: Principles of Block Chains: Functional Description

（来源：财经网）

(Source: Financial and Economic Network)

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